Source: Council on Hemispheric Affairs – Analysis-Reportage
By Maribel Nolasco and Rubén Sierra
Honolulu, Hawai‘i
History was made on June 2, 2024. Claudia Sheinbaum became the first woman to be elected President of México and the first democratically-elected woman to lead a country in North America. President-elect Sheinbaum will take the reins from her predecessor and mentor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) on the first of October. Sheinbaum, the left-leaning leader of the National Regeneration Movement known as MORENA, has committed to continuing AMLO’s political agenda which is often referred to as the Fourth Transformation. The Fourth Transformation promotes equitable economic growth, job creation, investments in infrastructure, the expansion of social programs and combating corruption.[i] These efforts are primarily aimed at realizing popular demands to alleviate poverty, improve public safety, and fortify democratic institutions.
Sheinbaum’s ascendancy to the Mexican presidency represents significant political change in México’s 203 year old history. Many Mexicans hope that this political change will equate to progressive changes within society. But change will not be an easy task. The Sheinbaum administration will be confronted with decades-long issues of poverty, immigration, border security, and the unconscionable violence perpetrated by criminal organizations. Urgent action will be needed from the incoming president to address these systemic issues.
So, how will President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum confront the complex issues affecting México? How will the historic Mexican president govern in these very uncertain and volatile times?
Who is Claudia Sheinbaum?
President-elect Sheinbaum is a Jewish Mexican whose maternal and paternal grandparents fled Eastern Europe during the Holocaust. They settled in México City in the 1940s. Influenced by the scientists in her family, Sheinbaum earned a PhD in Energy Engineering and completed some of her doctoral work at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. Upon completion of her PhD, she worked as a faculty member at the Institute of Engineering at the National Autonomous University of México (UNAM). In 2007, Sheinbaum went on to become a contributing co-author at the United Nations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report.[ii]
In 2000, Sheinbaum was appointed as Secretary of the Environment under AMLO’s administration when he served as Head of Government of México City. From 2015 to 2017, Sheinbaum served as Mayor of Tlalpan. In 2018, Sheinbaum became the first woman to be elected as the Head of Government of México City.
Sheinbaum’s Social Platform
As the first woman to represent México, Sheinbaum has made clear her social priorities. She has emphatically expressed her interest in “eradicating classism, racism, machismo and discrimination” which she associates with “right-wing thinking.”[iii] México has been widely recognized as one of the most dangerous countries for women and girls. Sheinbaum said that her being a woman leader is a sign of an evolving society, “it’s a symbol for México” and “symbol for the world.”[iv] Sheinbaum added that “México has been called a machista country for many years. But Mexicans are now governed by many women and that’s a change. I see young girls who are excited that a woman is going to be president. And it changes the culture for women and for men.”[v] Although the specifics of her social policies have not yet been released, Sheinbaum acknowledges that more needs to be done to protect women and girls in México.
At the same time, Sheinbaum intends to continue AMLO’s vision of advancing indigenous rights. Sheinbaum has stated that she will continue to work with indigenous peoples of México to reach agreements to compensate for the historical injustices committed against their communities.[vi] This priority is consistent with AMLO’s commitment to strengthen institutions which seek to defend indigenous communities and promote their right to self-determination.[vii] However, this effort will not be without opposition.
The Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), an armed indigenous revolutionary group located in southern México, has opposed several projects that have been promoted by AMLO. These projects include the expansion of the Mexican National Guard and the construction of the Maya Train. The leader of EZLN, referred to as subcommander Galeano, stated, “Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s [request] to build the Maya Train” is “a permit to destroy the indigenous people” because the megaproject will cause deforestation and destroy the biodiversity on indigenous lands.[viii] Despite these concerns, AMLO has approved the completion of significant portions of the train. Some indigenous Mexicans have also expressed opposition to AMLO’s proposal to expand the National Guard and the building of new military barracks. According to the Guardian, “the national guard has built 165 barracks in México” under AMLO and “the indigenous Tzeltal ejido of San Sebastián Bachajón, Chiapas is leading the first lawsuit against one of 500 or so barracks planned across the country.”[ix] Indigenous Mexicans argue that the construction of the barracks, like the Maya Train, will degrade their native lands and represents further militarization against indigenous people.[x] Opposition from some indigenous groups to these policies will likely confront Sheinbaum’s presidency as she seeks to continue AMLO’s agenda. Overall, the success of Sheinbaum’s social platform will be heavily dependent on her ability to promote economic growth throughout the country.
Sheinbaum’s Plan for the Mexican Economy
Poverty continues to be a systemic issue in México. According to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, in 2022, over 46 million people lived in poverty and over 9 million people lived in extreme poverty.[xi] However, there are signs for optimism as nearly 6 million people have been lifted out of poverty as a result of AMLO’s pro-growth economic policies.[xii] As AMLO has repeated on numerous occasions in his daily press conferences, “no olvidamos que por el bien de todos, primero los pobres” (we do not forget that for the good of all, the poor first). President-elect Sheinbaum has pledged to continue AMLO’s anti-poverty policies; for example, she has proposed to build one million homes which is projected to create two million jobs.[xiii] Sheinbaum’s economic plan also includes public investments in infrastructure, increasing wages and developing industrial centers that are connected to educational institutions.[xiv] This will be in conjunction with Sheinbaum’s plan to hasten México’s transition to renewable energy by allowing for more private investments.[xv] At the same time, Sheinbaum has pledged to uphold AMLO’s promise to keep at least 54% of the country’s energy resources under government control.
Sheinbaum also intends to build on AMLO’s economic record by continuing to create jobs and stimulate regional economic growth through the manufacturing and tourism sectors. The revamped United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which AMLO strongly supports, has already created thousands of new jobs in manufacturing and at Mexican ports. As a result, USA Today recently reported that “more often Mexicans are staying put. They’re finding jobs in the hundreds of assembly plants that send car parts, pacemakers, respirators, computers and Christmas lights to the U.S., or they’re working in the booming tourist ports from Puerto Vallarta to Cancun.”[xvi] According to AMLO, over three million assembly plant jobs have been created each year and thousands of more jobs created through infrastructure projects.[xvii] These projects include the modernization of Mexican ports, the construction of Tren Maya, and the expansion of Ferrocarril Transístimo.
Michael Stott and Christine Murray of the Financial Times considers Sheinbaum “as an investor-friendly” politician “who will build on México’s privileged trade access to the U.S,”[xviii] especially given the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. According to the Wilson Center based in Washington, D.C., “the deepening rift in the U.S.-China commercial ties provide substantial momentum for nearshoring in México, which, as of 2023, overtook Beijing as Washington’s main trading partner.”[xix] The Wilson Center also added that Sheinbaum has “expressed an ambition… to attract greater U.S. investments” in manufacturing and “flagship projects like her renewable energy initiatives.”[xx]
Overall, Sheinbaum’s economic priorities are ultimately intended to alleviate poverty and curb migration to the north. However, one significant obstacle to ensuring economic stability is the challenge of improving public safety. There is an urgent need to address and protect civilians from the persistent violence of criminal networks. This violence continues to disrupt economic activity. Therefore, Sheinbaum’s economic priorities will be dependent on her ability to address the historical violence that affects everyday people.
Sheinbaum and Public Safety
Criminal organizations throughout México continue to violently assert their control, especially in northern México. These organizations control strategic trade routes, agricultural commodities, and, of course, illicit drugs. Criminal organizations thrive, in part, because of the U.S.’ high demand for narcotics. In addition to drug trafficking, criminal groups are now competing for control over “legitimate export industries including avocados and limes.”[xxi] The competition among groups, in some areas, has “caused Mexican families to live under the threat of extreme violence.”[xxii] This unconscionable violence has resulted in the murder of over 156,000 people since 2018[xxiii] and the displacement of numerous families.
President-elect Sheinbaum, like AMLO, does not intend to directly combat criminal networks with stricter policing or the use of force. However, according to Reuters, Sheinbaum intends to “double the number of federal investigators to 8,000, increase the number of National Guard troops to 150,000 from around 120,000” and “decrease impunity through judicial reform.”[xxiv] In addition, Sheinbaum “has pledged to address the root causes of organized crime via social programs” which “provide young people with economic opportunities to prevent recruitment from criminal groups.” Sheinbaum added, “we are going to rescue young people from the clutches of criminal gangs, and we’re going to give them support.”[xxv]
Sheinbaum will also seek to address the root causes of what is empowering these criminal networks – guns coming from the United States. Sheinbaum’s administration will inherit a historic lawsuit against six U.S. gun manufacturers. During March of 2024, “The U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit has revived México’s $10 billion lawsuit against U.S. gun manufacturers, which previously was dismissed by a lower court.”[xxvi] The defendants include Smith & Wesson, Sturm, Ruger & Co., Beretta USA, Barrett Firearms Manufacturing, Colt’s Manufacturing Co., and Glock Inc.[xxvii] México argues that these American gun manufacturers have engaged in “negligent practices that facilitate the trafficking of more than 500,000 guns annually to Mexican drug cartels.”[xxviii] According to the Arms Control Association’s observation of México’s lawsuit, México alleges that the “actions of American gun manufacturers” have “contributed directly to the violence within its national borders.”[xxix] All of the companies named in the suit have denied any wrongdoing.
Instead, the gun companies argue that the U.S. Protection of Lawful Commerce Arms Act grants them legal immunity from lawsuits brought against them by foreign governments. However, Alejandro Celorio Alcántara, a legal advisor to the Mexican Foreign Ministry, believes that the lawsuit will shine light on the truth. Alcántara recently stated that “not only will [the Mexican government] have the opportunity to present its evidence, [México] will be able to ask the defendant companies to share their evidence with the court,” and “it could be a gold mine”[xxx] for justice. In addition to the U.S. gun case, which has the potential to halt the trafficking of guns from the U.S. to México, Sheinbaum will also inherit other legal efforts that seek to curb violence abroad.
México and International Affairs
México, under the Sheinbaum administration, is expected to continue the trend of taking on significant roles in international affairs. Previously, México granted asylum to Evo Morales after the “Lithium Coup” in Bolivia. México had also been a strong advocate of freedom for whistleblower Julian Assange until Assange was finally released from prison in June 2024. México also upheld its sovereignty over the country’s natural resources against foreign control. México has even taken bold legal positions within geopolitical affairs. On January 18, 2024, México and Chile referred the military conflict between Israel and Hamas to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Both countries requested an “investigation into the probable commission of crimes” within ICC’s jurisdiction[xxxi] “due to the growing concern over the latest escalation of violence, particularly against civilian targets.”[xxxii] The investigation is intended to identify the specific individuals from Israel and Hamas who should be charged with committing criminal acts.
The unconscionable violence has resulted in the forced displacement of over 2 million people and counting,[xxxiii] the murder of over 39,000 civilians including more than 13,000 children.[xxxiv] The war has had a disproportionate and devastating impact on the Palestinian people. President-elect Sheinbaum stated, “no reason justifies the murder of Palestinian civilians […] nothing can justify the murder of a child.” Sheinbaum added, “Because of my Jewish origin, because of my love for México […] I share with millions the desire for justice, equality, fraternity and peace.”[xxxv]
Moreover, on May 28, 2024, México filed a declaration of intervention with the UN International Court of Justice (ICJ) to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel.[xxxvi] México joins a growing number of nations who are accusing Israel of violating the United Nation’s 1948 Genocide Convention. México contends that there is reasonable evidence for “the existence of genocide in the context of armed conflict” between Israel and Hamas.[xxxvii]
Conclusion
The historic election of Claudia Sheinbaum has generated much optimism for Mexicans. President-elect Sheinbaum is expected to continue AMLO’s economic policies which have already resulted in steady economic growth and significant job creation in the manufacturing and tourism industries. A growing and stable economy has also been effective at lifting millions of people out of poverty, keeping Mexicans at home, and away from gangs. Stable economic growth will be dependent on Sheinbaum’s ability to ensure public safety given the looming threat of gang violence.
Internationally, President-elect Sheinbaum will be leading México during an unprecedented time in which the country is taking prominent leadership roles in the fight for regional integration and independence, as well as international justice. Given all of the complexities, both domestically and internationally, México, under the leadership of President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, is expected to be a strong symbol for peace, justice, and international cooperation.
Maribel Nolasco has over 8 years working with labor unions. She was born and raised in Puebla, México and a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley and Chaminade University of Honolulu.
Ruben Sierra was a 2008 COHA Research Associate. In 2007, he studied Caribbean Literature and Music at the Casa de las Américas in Havana, Cuba. He has over 10 years of experience working with labor unions and non-profit organizations in California.
[i] AMLO & the Fourth Transformation: One Year After His Historic Election Victory | Wilson Center
[ii] Climate Change Working Group, Chapter 7: Industry – AR4 WGIII, United Nations, Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (accessed on May 30, 2024).
[iii] Lauren Villagran and Omar Ornelas, South of the border, a woman is poised to take power in historic Mexico
elections, USA Today, June 1, 2024 (accessed on June 2, 2024).
[iv] Will Grant, Meet the women campaigning to become Mexico’s first female president | BBC, British Broadcasting
Corporation, May 30, 2024 (accessed on June 1, 2024).
[v] Ibid.
[vi] María Verza, Mexico’s next president is likely a woman. But in some Indigenous villages, men have all the power, WDIO ABC, May
28, 2024 (accessed on June 2, 2024).
[vii] Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores, Mexico’s indigenous peoples enrich the nation: Ebrard | Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores,
Government of México, June 3, 2022 (accessed on June 1, 2024).
[viii] Peoples Dispatch, Zapatistas vow to continue resistance, oppose president AMLO’s ‘Mayan train’ project : Peoples Dispatch,
January 7, 2019 (accessed on July 23, 2024).
[ix] Peace Brigades International-USA, National Guard barracks, militarization of territory a concern for Indigenous peoples, environmental defenders in Mexico | PBI USA, (accessed on July 23, 2024).
[x] María Inclán, MEXICO: The Zapatistas vs. AMLO | Center for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, Berkeley Center for Latin
American & Caribbean Studies, 2020 (accessed on July 23, 2024).
[xi] BBVA Research, Poverty decreases at its lowest level (36.3%); but, access to health deteriorates, page 1, August 16, 2023,
updated on November 1, 2023 (accessed on May 30, 2024).
[xii] BBVA Research, Mexico | Poverty decreases at its lowest level (36.3%); but, access to health deteriorates, August 16, 2023,
updated on November 1, 2023 (accessed on May 31, 2024).
[xiii] Mariana Allende, Claudia Sheinbaum’s Key Economic Initiatives, June 3, 2024 (accessed on July 23, 2024).
[xiv] Ibid.
[xv] Dave Graham, Mexico’s Sheinbaum spurs hope of more private investment in energy after Lopez Obrador | Reuters, December
21,2023 (accessed on July 23, 2024)
[xvi] Lauren Villagran and Omar Ornelas, South of the border, a woman is poised to take power in historic Mexico
elections, USA Today, June 1, 2024 (accessed on June 2, 2024).
[xvii] México’s President Lopéz Obrador, Encuentro con las industrias maquiladora y manufacturera, desde Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua,
via Mexican President’s YouTube Channel, Encuentro con las industrias maquiladora y manufacturera, desde Ciudad Juárez,
[xviii] Financial Times, Claudia Sheinbaum, the woman hoping to be Mexico’s first female president (accessed on June 3, 2024).
[xix] Santiago Jose Herdoiza, Election 2024: Continuity and Change in Mexico’s Political and Economic
Landscape, Wilson Center, May 24, 2024, (accessed on June 3, 2024).
[xx] Ibid.
[xxi] Lauren Villagran and Omar Ornelas, South of the border, a woman is poised to take power in historic Mexico elections, USA
Today, June 1, 2024 (accessed on June 2, 2024).
[xxii] Lauren Villagran and Omar Ornelas, South of the border, a woman is poised to take power in historic Mexico elections, USA
Today, June 1, 2024 (accessed on June 2, 2024).
[xxiii] Salvador River, AMLO’s presidential term bloodiest in Mexico’s history | FOX 5 San Diego & KUSI News, May 26, 2023
(accessed on July 23, 2024).
[xxiv] Diego Oré, Mexico election front-runner Sheinbaum faces tall order to cut cartel violence | Reuters, May 28, 2024 (accessed
on July 21, 2024).
[xxv] Sana Khan, Mexico Presidential Elections: How The 3 Candidates Plan To Combat Organized Crime, Latin Times, May 31, 2024,
(accessed on July 20, 2024).
[xxvi] Chad Lawhorn, Mexican Lawsuit Against U.S. Gun Firms to Proceed, Arms Control Association, March 2024 (accessed on June
2, 2024).
[xxvii] Ibid.
[xxviii] Ibid.
[xxix] Ibid.
[xxx] Chad Lawhorn, Mexican Lawsuit Against U.S. Gun Firms to Proceed, Arms Control Association, March 2024 (accessed on June
2, 2024).
[xxxi] Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores, Mexico and Chile refer situation in Palestine to the International Criminal Court (ICC) |
Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores, Government of México, January 28, 2024 (accessed on May 30, 2024).
[xxxii] Ibid.
[xxxiii] United Nations Press Release, Humanitarian Situation in Gaza ‘a Moral Stain on Us All’, Secretary-General Tells Security
Council, Stressing International Law Must Be Respected by All | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases, July 17, 2024
(accessed on July 23, 2024).
[xxxiv] Palestine New & Information Agency, Gaza death toll surges to 38,919 over 89,622 injured, July 20, 2024 (accessed on
July 20, 2024).
[xxxv] The New Arab Staff, Who is Claudia Sheinbaum and how did she make history in Mexico, June 3, 2024 (accessed on June 3,
[xxxvi] International Court of Justice, Mexico files a declaration of intervention in the proceedings under Article 63 of the Statute,
Document Number 192-20240528-PRE-01-00-EN
[xxxvii] Ibid.
Photo Credit: EneasMx, File:Claudia Sheinbaum discurso de la victoria.jpg – Wikimedia Commons
