Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted July 10–13 from a sample of 1,603, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 by 2022 election preference flows, a one-point gain for the Coalition since June by my calculations.
Resolve does not usually give a two-party estimate, but this is the first time Labor would not have led during this term by 2022 preference flows. Until this year, Resolve was easily the most pro-Labor pollster.
Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 28% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 6% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (steady), 11% independents (steady) and 2% others (down two).
Just 33% gave Anthony Albanese a good rating, while 54% rated him poorly, for a net approval of -21, down seven points since June. Albanese’s net approval has slumped 19 points since April. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down two points since June to net zero.
After surging to his first preferred PM lead in any poll in June by 36–35, Dutton held a 35–34 lead.The Coalition continued to hold a seven-point lead over Labor on keeping the cost of living low, and a 16-point lead on economic management. Asked what was the most important issue, 53% said cost of living, with issues not related to cost of living in the single figures.
Two weeks ago, Labor gained in Newspoll, probably owing to Dutton’s nuclear policy. Since then, this announcement appears to have faded in importance to voters, although it’s likely to be revived at an election campaign.
Cost of living is by far the most important issue to voters. Until and unless cost of living pressures are meaningfully reduced, Labor will struggle.
Fatima Payman and Glenn Druery
In the wake of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman’s defection from Labor, there was much media attention on Payman’s association with Glenn Druery, the “preference whisperer”.
Group ticket voting, which allowed parties to direct the preferences of all those who voted for them above the line in the Senate, was abolished before the 2016 federal election. This system had given Druery his reputation, as parties with very low levels of support could coalesce to elect someone, often on a minuscule vote share.
With the abolishment of group ticket voting, voters now direct their own preferences, and these preferences don’t help parties with minuscule vote shares. Druery no longer has any power federally. However, Victoria unfortunately still uses group ticket voting for its state upper house elections.
Morgan poll: 50.5–49.5 to Coalition
A national Morgan poll, conducted June 24–30 from a sample of 1,706, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the June 17–23 poll. In the July 1–7 Morgan poll with a sample of 1,723, the Coalition seized a 52–48 lead.
In the July 8–14 Morgan poll with a sample of 1,758, the Coalition’s lead was reduced to 50.5–49.5. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down two since July 1–7), 31% Labor (up 2.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 9% independents (steady) and 5% others (up 0.5).
The headline two-party estimate used respondent preferences, but this poll article said Labor led by 51.5–48.5 using 2022 preference flows, a two-point gain for Labor since the July 1–7 poll.
Essential poll: Coalition regains lead
A national Essential poll, conducted June 26–30 from a sample of 1,141, gave the Coalition a 47–46 lead including undecided, a reversal of Labor’s 48–46 lead in mid-June that was its first lead in this poll since April.
Primary votes were 33% Coalition (up one), 30% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (steady), 10% for all Others (up one) and 7% undecided (up one).
Albanese’s net approval fell five points since early June to -9, a low for him in Essential since he became PM. Dutton’s net approval was steady at -1.
By 43–28, voters were worried about the impact of climate change on the next generation. By 52–48, they opposed Dutton’s nuclear plan.
Asked about desirability of energy sources, 59% said renewable energies were most desirable, 21% nuclear energy and 19% fossil fuels. On costs of energy sources, 38% (up two since April) thought nuclear energy most expensive, 35% (down five) renewable energies and 27% (up three) fossil fuels.
Newspoll aggregate data from April to June
Newspoll’s aggregate data for all its four surveys conducted from April to June from a combined sample of 4,957 was published by The Australian on July 7. The Poll Bludger’s poll tables say voters with no tertiary education were unchanged at a 50–50 tie compared to the March quarter aggregate data.
Labor held a 51–49 lead with TAFE-educated voters, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor also held a 52–48 lead with university-educated voters, but this was a three-point gain for the Coalition.
The Coalition had a one-point gain in four of the five mainland states, and now leads by 51–49 in New South Wales and 54–46 in Queensland. Labor leads by 54–46 in Victoria and 53–47 in South Australia. In WA, Labor gained three points to take a 52–48 lead.
Macnamara seat poll suggests Labor will win owing to Greens drop
A Redbridge poll
of the federal Victorian seat of Macnamara, conducted June 13–20 from a sample of 401, gave Labor a 55–45 two-candidate lead over the Liberals, from primary votes of Liberals 36%, Labor 30%, the Greens 21% and all Others 13%.
The Poll Bludger said that at the 2022 federal election, Labor defeated the Liberals by 62.2–37.8 adjusted for the recent Victorian redistribution. Primary votes were 31.7% Labor, 29.7% Greens and 29.0% Liberals. The Greens just missed out on making the final two in 2022 at Labor’s expense and winning on Labor preferences.
WA seat poll suggests state Labor will win easily
The WA election will be held in March 2025. The Poll Bludger reported Friday that a privately conducted seat poll of Hillarys, first reported in The West Australian, gave Labor a 61–39 lead. This poll was conducted by Utting Research June 3–14 from a sample of just 350 for the Home Builders Action Group.
This poll had a swing of 8% to the Liberals in Hillarys since the 2021 WA election, but at that election Labor won the WA statewide two-party vote by 70–30. If Labor is still ahead by over 60–40, they will win the next WA election easily.
While the state Labor government led by Roger Cook had a 52–37 approval rating, the Albanese federal government had a 53–36 disapproval rating.
Far-right National Rally underperforms to finish third at French election
I covered the July 7 French parliamentary election runoffs for The Poll Bludger. The left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) won 182 of the 577 total seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 168, the far-right National Rally 143 and the conservative Republicans 45. With 289 seats needed for a majority, no party is able to form a majority government. Pre-election polls had given National Rally the most seats.
The July 4 UK election was the most disproportionate in modern history, with Labour winning 63% of seats on 34% of votes, while the far-right Reform won just 0.8% of seats on 14% of votes. Electoral developments in the Netherlands, Iran and the Solomon Islands were also covered.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
– ref. Labor and Albanese’s slide continues in Resolve poll, as major parties tied – https://theconversation.com/labor-and-albaneses-slide-continues-in-resolve-poll-as-major-parties-tied-233638
