Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards.
Political Roundup: Jacinda Ardern’s “critical” trip a success
It came at a “critical moment” according to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, referring to her meeting yesterday with US President Joe Biden. She was talking about the need for New Zealand and its superpower ally to have dialogue in the midst of their panic over China’s increasing diplomatic presence in the Pacific region.
In fact, Ardern’s whole US trip came at a “critical moment” for her own government. She desperately needed a decent good news story, given that things have gone so badly for Labour in recent months. Ardern will be hoping that the trip resets the public’s increasingly unfavourable view of her leadership and the competence of her colleagues. She will also be hoping that it illustrates that Labour are dealing with the China-Pacific issue, given that Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has been missing in action.
A sales triumph
Ardern’s trip is being seen as a triumph, and not just by the select group of journalists and business people who accompanied her. There has been positive headline after positive headline, showing the value of the whole exercise, not just for the country but for the Labour Government.
Critics might say that little of substance has actually come out of the trip. There were no significant announcements made, or agreements signed. However, there were plenty of good promotional photo opportunities and speeches made, and relationships nurtured. These are invaluable, and such symbolic and intangible aspects of the trip have rightfully been highlighted by the media.
After all, this was primarily a trade and tourism promotional trip. It was a chance for the Prime Minister to do what she does best: communicate and persuade. The Government’s line that New Zealand is “open for business” will yield results. Ardern’s appearance on TV shows will boost New Zealand’s profile.
Now that the trip is over, tributes have been flowing from the media and commentariat. Newshub’s Amelia Wade labelled it “mission accomplished”. Toby Manhire of the Spinoff said the trip “exceeded any reasonable expectations”. And Stuff’s Luke Malpass explained: “The White House trip, provided a capstone on what has been a successful tour of the US by Jacinda Ardern. The first part of the trip was about shamelessly selling New Zealand, while the second half was more politics.”
Even leftwing blogger Martyn Bradbury, who has been rather scathing lately about Ardern and her Government’s lack of delivery, had this to say: “There is little doubt that the Prime Minister’s visit to America has been an enormous diplomatic victory in capturing hearts and minds. She has generated a level of goodwill unmatched by the last 5 Prime Ministers combined. From Harvard, to the Late Show to the White House, she has dazzled and inspired.”
Of course, there will be some New Zealanders who remain unmoved. RNZ’s Emile Donovan says: “Ardern’s trip has led to some criticism and accusations that the prime minister is more concerned with burnishing her international image than effecting meaningful change at home.”
This is the view of the Australian Spectator magazine which pointed out this week that “there is a considerable disconnect between her high regard internationally and the discontent she is facing domestically”. The magazine titled their story: “Jacinda Ardern is New Zealand’s Gorbachev” – i.e. feted abroad but less positively received at home.
New Zealanders love to see our prime ministers in the international media and on the international stage. But when it occurs at a time of increasing poverty, rising cost of living pressures, and the growing perception that the Government isn’t delivering, then the glamour and celebrity of such trips can be jarring.
The Biden meeting and the Pacific
What will be remembered from Ardern’s trip is her meeting with Biden. The key issue for discussion was China in the Pacific, hence Ardern’s description of the meeting occurring at a “critical moment”.
The geopolitical reset that China is currently carrying out in the Pacific has been a damaging story for the Government, and for Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta in particular. The Government is perceived to have dropped the ball on our crucial relationships with Pacific Island nations at the very time the Asian superpower is seeking to develop a very strong partnership with New Zealand’s closest neighbours.
Mahuta is being severely criticised over revelations that since she took the job about two years ago, she has visited only one Pacific country. Although much of this has been down to Covid, Mahuta also doesn’t appear to have kept up much communication with her Pacific counterparts. The suspicion is that Mahuta has been more engaged with her controversial Three Waters agenda instead.
Some of the language to come out of the Ardern-Biden meeting also indicates how the New Zealand Government is shifting further into the US geopolitics camp. Ardern talked about the importance of relations with “like minded countries”, and after the meeting they spoke of the US committing to boosting its resources and relations in the Pacific.
Perhaps more significantly, the joint statement appears to commit New Zealand to a much closer defence alignment with the US – maybe even becoming a full military ally again. This will raise further questions about New Zealand’s so-called independent foreign policy, and whether the country is now going to be lined up against China, and therefore jeopardising its lucrative trade relationship.
The US-NZ statement issued from the meeting certainly showed that the two countries are united in their concern about China’s increased presence. In general, the outcome represented a hardening of the alliance between the two countries against China’s role in the region. But they were both careful not to make the meeting appear to be some sort of emergency meeting about what is happening in the Pacific.
Both countries are very clearly focused on using “soft power” in their ambitions to reassert their role in the Pacific. For example, rather than condemning any of the Pacific countries for entering into partnerships with China, Biden and Ardern spoke of trying to help the Pacific Island via their own partnerships rather than through dominating the region. For example, in announcing the US would reassert itself in the region, Biden stated: “We are not coming to dictate or lay down the law. We have more work to do in those Pacific Islands as well”.
One US Official gave the following report on Ardern and Biden’s private discussion about the need to use soft power: “They also had some fairly detailed discussion about the importance of in-person engagement with Pacific Island leaders and the importance of the United States working closely with New Zealand and other partners as we continue to step up our efforts to engage more effectively in the Pacific.”
Expect, therefore, to see more of this new soft power approach from New Zealand. There seems to be a strong awareness that western countries, having neglected the region and often played an exploitative or even colonial role, now have to be somewhat more subtle and humble towards the Pacific. It is likely that Ardern will now cease using language conveying ownership of the Pacific nations – she has until now been asserting that the islands are in New Zealand’s “backyard”.
In essence, the rise of China means that New Zealand and its allies need to lift their game and make even better offers to our neighbours than China – this will surely include greater aid and support. Coming out of their White House meeting, Biden appears to be on side with this softer strategy.
So, once again, Ardern has in the face of her less competent colleagues, managed to salvage her administration’s reputation. This success in foreign policy couldn’t have come at a more critical moment.
Further reading on Ardern in the US and China in the Pacific
Craig McCulloch (RNZ): Joint US-NZ statement ‘a little too US-centric’ – Defence analyst
Gordon Campbell: On New Zealand’s surrender to the US
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): China ramps up rhetoric, warning NZ it could ‘lose at both ends’ after Biden-Ardern talks
Ireland Hendry-Tennent (Newshub): Expert warns NZ could face trade implications after China slams Jacinda Ardern’s statement with Joe Biden over Xinjiang, Hong Kong
Reuters: China’s foreign ministry slams Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, US President Joe Biden for comments on Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan
Wilson Longhurst (1News): China slams NZ-US concerns over Pacific as ‘disinformation’
Michael Daly (Stuff): NZ ‘not defined’ by China over Pacific relationships, Nanaia Mahuta says
Tova O’Brien (Today FM): Adoration for the PM overseas does not translate here
Jeff Mason and David Brunnstrom (Reuters): Biden and New Zealand leader air shared concern about China’s Pacific ambitions
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): Jacinda Ardern returns to New Zealand as the mood reverts to the mean
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Why early signs point to White House meeting of Jacinda Ardern and Joe Biden being a success
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Joe Biden praises Jacinda Ardern’s leadership during meeting at the White House
Herald: Editorial: A determined Jacinda Ardern meets Joe Biden (paywalled)
Amelia Wade (Newshub): Jacinda Ardern, Joe Biden meeting: How the day unfolded after COVID-19 curveballs attempted to derail it
Lana Andelane (Newshub): Ardern, Biden meeting: Expert analyses their body language during meeting at the White House
Francesca Rudkin (Newstalk): Are you impressed with what the PM has achieved in the US?
Matthew Cranston (Financial Review): Biden, Ardern share concerns over China’s Pacific ambitions
Claire Trevett (Herald): The PM’s long meeting with US President Joe Biden – her one regret, what she gave and what she got (paywalled)
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Jacinda’s America Visit: NZ won hearts & minds – we lost wallets
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Why this White House meeting is one Jacinda Ardern probably never thought she’d have
Michael Neilson (Herald): China in the Pacific: PM Ardern says moves ‘not new’ but ‘pace of engagement’ increased, will push US to engage more
Jo Moir (Newsroom): The twists and turns of six minutes in the Oval Office
Tess McClure (Guardian): Biden praises Ardern for ‘galvanising action’ on gun control and climate change
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Government puts up $75 million to ward of Pacific debt crises, but Treasury warns more may be needed
Damien Venuto (Herald): NZ walking diplomatic tightrope with China in the Pacific
Thomas Manch (Stuff): China claims it wants development in the Pacific, not influence
Michael Neilson (Herald): China in the Pacific: ‘Depth’ of New Zealand’s relationships in question – experts
Thomas Manch (Stuff): China waters down contentious deal as Pacific leaders warn of geopolitical games
1News: Presence of China, US in Pacific ‘reality’ of region – Robertson
1News: Nanaia Mahuta says she expects to visit Solomon Islands ‘soon’
William Hewett (Newshub): Sir John Key calls on Government to work with China in the Pacific instead of trying to get rid of them
Shane Jones (Herald): Waiter, there’s a dragon in my Pacific (paywalled)
Jayden Holmes (Today FM): Gerry Brownlee questioning where NZ went wrong amidst China’s Pacific negotiations
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): ‘Is China setting up shop in our backyard?’
RNZ: China seeks multilateral deal with Pacific leaders
Michael Morrah (Newshub): China finishes ‘successful’ meeting with Fiji as Nanaia Mahuta plans meeting in Solomon Islands following signing of controversial security deal
RNZ: China to continue pushing for Pacific Island nations to sign regional trade and security agreement
Christine Rovoi (Stuff): Pacific minister heads to Fiji but talks won’t include China