Who's the winner? (Chart by Keith Rankin).
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Keith Rankin Analysis: Chart for this Month – 2020 Election – Change or No Change?

With the political season having started already, and speculation already rife about the Opposition leadership, it’s timely to check out this distinctly possible scenario for the next election, in 2020.

The chart shows the total percentage vote for the governing parties, alongside the opposition percentage. The scenario is that the percentage vote for each bloc will be exactly the same in 2020 as in 2017. However, as a result of the ‘Jacinda effect’, and in light of the past electoral history of government support parties, I am suggesting there will be a small flow of votes from New Zealand First and Green in favour of Labour; enough to reduce the support parties’ support to four-point-something percent.

It means that increased support for Labour would propel National to a comfortable victory, in a Parliament with only National, Labour and Act.


To avert this scenario, and to avert the suggestion of underhand political deals in the winter of 2020, Labour publicly commit this year to the following (and sensibly National would make a similar commitment).

Labour should commit to not standing a candidate against two ministers of any parties that hold multiple ministerial positions in a Labour-led government. (Where a support party has just one minister, then Labour would commit to not standing against him or her.)

In practice, it would mean for 2020 that Grant Robertson, Ruth Dyson and Willow-Jean Prime would contest as list-only MPs; and Labour would stand no candidate in Wairarapa. By facilitating James Shaw, Eugenie Sage, Winston Peters and Ron Mark to becoming electorate MPs, the result shown – with significantly more votes for the present government than the present opposition – would lead to no change of government.