Syndicated Features – Evening Report

Tony Alexander’s Weekly Economic Overview October 2015

Selwyn Manning — Thu, 29 Oct 2015 20:20:27 +0000

MIL OSI Analysis – Source: BNZ Economist Tony Alexander – Analysis: [caption id="attachment_3709" align="alignleft" width="300"] Tony Alexander, BNZ economist.[/caption] We’re into a new financial year for the BNZ and being back in NZ after a couple of weeks offshore I am restarting the Weekly Overview after putting it into abeyance in January. On average each issue will be shorter than in the past but I’ll write a bigger summary and make it abundantly clear whether I think there is something truly worth reading or its just filler.

SUMMARY: This week I discuss what London was like – basically booming – and how this means NZ builders better not count on sourcing many skilled staff from there to help build houses in Auckland. That means I still expect rising Auckland house prices though at a slowing pace. Regarding housing I discuss the role being played by rising life expectancy boosting investor demand for housing in a couple of ways. Regarding the NZ dollar I discuss factors explaining the rise in recent weeks along with a reminder that our currency remains well supported by our reasonable economic growth outlook whilst many economies offshore are still struggling. In Europe more money printing is likely, same in Japan, Australia’s iron ore and coal industry prospects continue to darken as China’s growth slows and steel production falls, and in the US expectations for interest rate rises keep getting pushed out. If I were a borrower I’d look favourably currently at a two year fixed rate. And in the final section of the WO I discuss the rising use of credit controls in one form or another to perform the job of containing credit growth which interest rates can no longer do because of increasingly entrenched low inflation around the world. This last bit is the most interesting piece in this week’s Overview – page 6. For the full analysis: Download document pdf 399kb

Mission Statement To help Kiwi businesspeople and householders make informed financial decisions by discussing the economy and its implications in a language they can understand.

Weekly Overview Back I’m restarting the Weekly Overview after on January 22 this year putting it into abeyance for an undefined period. Will it be the same as before? The average length will be less than in the past and in the email I circulate for distributing each edition you will be left in no doubt as to whether I think it is worth your while taking a few minutes to read it, or whether it is just filler. Lets start with a reminder that as the only NZ economist to correctly call the direction of the Auckland housing market these past six years, I’m going to continue to write a lot about housing. It feels good to get something right in a world where most other forecasts are wrong. To recap, as previously pointed out in Sporadic, apart from most of us correctly predicting the 1% rise in the official cash rate last year, almost all interest rate forecasts since 2008 have been wrong. They are likely to remain askew for a number of years – just ask US economists as they change their predicted timing and magnitude of rate rises in the US, and explain why ending of US money printing and rising expectations of US rate tightening have caused their bond yields to fall rather than rise. These are weird times we live in, very weird. And don’t forget the hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in the oil sector now wasted and/or being canned as a result of the structural decline in oil prices. TV crews in Alaska will probably be heading back to the lower 48 now that gold prices have settled a lot lower than anticipated. And of course there are plenty of Kiwis staying in NZ and coming home from Oz (not all of them deported) now that the Australian commodity super-cycle has come to an abrupt end and probably won’t reappear for another generation. The cycle may return just in time for your young babies to head across the ditch to build a nest egg so they can buy a house back in New Zealand in the 2030s. But they shouldn’t count on easy home affordability given many factors discussed these past few years, and one I have chosen to re-emphasise in the Housing section below. London 2015 Last week I got back from a couple of weeks in London with a quick stopover in Hong Kong on the way back. While in London I gave presentations at numerous functions including human resource companies recruiting people to work in NZ, NZ Trade and Enterprise and KEA, and groups of Kiwis with common business interests of which there are quite a few. Truth be told I’ll whore my services to whoever wants to know about the NZ economy when I head up north. Keeping it short and sweet, my main observation for London is that it is booming. There are cranes everywhere, the trains are packed, financial sector hiring appears strong, foreign visitors are everywhere, and there is a strong positive buzz to the place. I did not get across to the Continent this time around but speaking with people and reading material am prepared to say I see no reason for changing my generally pessimistic view on the long-term growth prospects for Europe. Economies are rigid, unemployment and welfare dependency are entrenched, politicians are cowered and voters are favouring extremes, and the place just seems to be scrambling without purpose to figure out what to do with an expanding Russia to the east, a growing wave of people heading up to Europe from the south, and poor economic structures. It is little wonder that the UK is very assertively seeking close relations with China, whilst the EU is belatedly picking up on the Asian growth and our links with it by pursuing a free trade agreement (nonagricultural one suspects) with New Zealand and Australia. Kiwis in London remain as interested as ever in three key things back in NZ. The exchange rate, Auckland house prices, and the strength of the labour market. My messages in these areas were that NZ’s economic prospects look acceptable so barring the usual ups and downs of global risk aversion lowering and raising high beta currencies like the NZD they should not expect to see the sort of weakness in the NZD which they fantasise about. I outlined factors which have accounted for Auckland house prices rising and how the pace of rises will slow but not stop, and how investors are shifting as predicted to buying in the regions. And I noted that there is a solidity to the NZ labour market you don’t find in other countries, courtesy of its deregulated nature encouraging businesses to hire and hire full-time rather than casual, the structural change in Auckland to becoming a proper big city rather than just the big Wanganui which some people outside Auckland in NZ stuck in a ‘60s time warp still incorrectly think it is, and of course the strong growth in the construction sector. I spoke at recruitment/migration expos in London and Manchester and in the latter received the most interesting questions during my time over there. One person asked if there were many earthquakes in New Zealand. I said that there are not anywhere near as many as Japan, but that any part of the country is vulnerable to a decent shake, and areas for which no fault lines have been detected should not be considered safe – just ask Cantabrians. I should have spent some time outlining the building standards which have earthquake preparedness in mind and how they have been strengthened recently. Another person in Manchester asked if Wellington was really windy. I struggled to contain the intensity with which I wanted to blurt out it blows a…holes and simply said yes it is, it really is, though mainly in spring. Potential migrants asked about areas of strength in the labour market, and at that point I concentrated on the solidity of growth in New Zealand in a wide range of sectors as compared with Australia which is suffering from the commodity super cycle ending, rigidities built up over 23 years without a recession, and how Aussies were less well-placed to take advantage of the shift in where growth is coming from in China than New Zealand is. For NZ employers contemplating tapping the UK market for staff – I think your peak period of ease for doing so has been and gone this decade. You would do better building up relationships with Kiwis who might be thinking about returning. Housing I could do a big summary of housing market situations here, but instead lets start with a question a lot of people have probably not asked themselves. If you can figure out and understand the answer then you’ll have a better grasp of one of the reasons why people are investing more and more in property and why the risk of the sort of sharp market correction which our central bank and Finance Minister keep warning about is a lot lower than you and they think. Check out this link to an article discussing the issue of increasing human lifespan with the possibility that the first person to live to be 1,000 years old may already have been born. Usually this is however discussed in more realistic terms as the first person to live to be 150 having already been born. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3285537/Has-person-ll-live-1-000-born-s-experts-believe-new-bookprofessor-reveals-s-good-news-rest-us.html What do you do if you think this will be you? You’ll adjust your thinking about things from short-term payoff to long-term benefits, and re-evaluate the risk of doing certain things because of the impediment cost stretching over many more years than you might envisage if you were going to die aged 70 for instance. You’ll think about one day completely changing career from carpenter to brain surgeon, from psychiatrist to cafe owner. You’ll think about receiving regular income from a job for a longer period of time. This is the first angle relevant to investing in housing. The longer you envisage working (choosing to work at that) the greater you will rate your ability to recover from a financial shock such as your share portfolio losing 50%, or your house price falling 40%. You will be reasonably confident that you can weather the storm as compared with expecting to die at 80 and losing labour income from aged 60 or 65. You’ll be more willing to invest in growth assets such as equities and housing. The other housing angle in this is that you will almost certainly be thinking in terms of spending many decades in voluntary and eventually involuntary retirement. You’ll be thinking about investing in assets which will yield you income and capital growth over a long period of time – again property and shares as opposed to cash and fixed interest. You’ll positively salivate at the thought that if you had a portfolio of five or so investment properties you could spend decades relaxing and enjoying the planet whilst others supply your income. There is a small version of this happening right now. Life expectancy is rising as advances are made in medical treatments and illness prevention strategies become more widely embraced and enhanced. Your grandparents may have died in the 70s or early 80s, your parents maybe in their 80s. You will be thinking about reaching the end in your 90s. Longer life expectations will be encouraging people to invest in property, especially as they are bombarded with predictions of a rising world population and more people living in cities. Rising life expectancy is one factor helping to drive investment in property, helping to push prices higher, and keeping in check the risk of a severe price correction. In the event of a correction, because people will year by year anticipate working for longer, they will less and less feel the need to crystallize a loss to stop it getting bigger and this will reduce the number of sellers each cycle from here on out. Just a quick comment regarding the widespread anecdotal evidence we have been receiving for up to three months now regarding fewer people attending Open Homes and a lower proportion of properties selling successfully at auctions. Some people are seeing evidence of prices falling. This is not likely to be the start of a downward trend. Instead it is likely to be asking price cuts by over-optimistic sellers who had been essentially taking the proverbial by holding out for an unrealistic price in the hope that some mug would feel panicked enough to pay through the nose so they avoided missing out. The fundamentals still strongly support prices going higher though, as we have noted for some time now, rising at a slowing pace now that the Reserve Bank has knocked many of the uninformed, undercapitalised people driven by FOMO out of the market. Chinese buyers have also backed off as they see a lengthening series of small roadblocks put in their way, consider wealth lost through China’s sharemarket rout, and struggle to get funds out of China amidst a new crackdown on capital outflows by the authorities. NZ Dollar If you’ve got money offshore which you are wanting back in NZ in the next few months or you’re an exporter, you’ll be scratching your head a bit trying to understand why in the past five weeks the NZD has risen over 4 cents against the USD to now sit near 67 cents, three British pence to near 44, and over four cents against the Aussie dollar to near 94 cents. The NZD’s gains break a pattern of oscillating declines broadly underway since May last year when our currency was buying 88 US cents. There are a number of reasons for the NZD strength. Firstly we have seen strong gains in our international dairy prices so that they now sit “only” 52% down from peak levels of early-2013 rather than 63% back in August. Second, indicators of consumer and business confidence have improved. Third, the world is going through what we call a “risk-on” period. This is a phase when investors feel not too bad about where the world economy is going, are not worried about official efforts being made to restrain growth, and shift some of their assets toward traditionally riskier investments such as shares and peripheral/commodity currencies like the NZD and AUD. Hence the record level for the S&P/NZX50 above 6,000 for instance – over an 8% rise from levels of early-September. It is impossible to predict how long a risk-on or risk-off phase will last so we cannot reliably indicate when the NZD will head back to US 63 cents or below AUD90 again. But at some stage analysts will once again expect an imminent tightening of monetary policy in the United States, forecasts will return of a rising USD, worries will grow about the impact of higher interest rates on share prices, and investors will shift toward more conservative asset mixes. For now the mild upward pressure could be waning as the US sharemarket has rallied quite a bit in recent weeks and profit-taking could very easily soon set in. But it is worth repeating the warning we have been delivering to exporters for all this period of a declining currency from the middle of last year. Fundamentally the NZ economy is in good short-term shape with stimulus from construction, non-dairy exporters, strong services sector growth, and absolutely booming migration flows. It is not reasonable to expect the Kiwi dollar to fall completely out of bed. If I were A Borrower What Would I Do? Compared with the previous three reviews of the official cash rate there were few people this time around expecting a rate cut from the Reserve Bank. Expectations of a cut have been falling in recent weeks in response to a pullback in worries about how much the NZ economy is slowing. Spending using debit and credit cards has picked up to an 8.2% annualised growth rate recently. Consumer and business sentiment measures have improved (though the latter remain low), and most significantly international dairy prices have recovered strongly. But one could not rule out a cut because of the disinflationary effects of the Kiwi dollar’s rise in the past few months weakening RB expectations/hopes of an import pricing feed-through into higher consumer inflation, slowing wages growth, some cooling in the Auckland housing market, and actual inflation sitting at only 0.4%. Personally I thought at a pinch that the RB (Thursday) morning would complete the job of removing the 1% official cash rate rise last year, but they left the rate unchanged at 2.75% while noting “…some further reduction in the OCR seems likely.” So maybe on December 10 there will be another, probably final, cut. Given that the no change decision met market expectations there was little impact on wholesale interest rates. The main rate of relevance to floating interest rates, the 90-day bank bill yield, remained near 2.88% having been 3.5% in May and 3.7% a year ago. Of relevance to funding costs for fixed rate loans, the two year swap rate is near 2.8% from 3.5% in May and almost 4% a year ago. The 1.2% fall in this rate in the past year explains the fall in the two year fixed home lending rate from 5.75% in October last year to 4.69% just over a month ago, and the intensity of competition for mortgage business explains the subsequent decline in this rate to a record low of 4.39%. If I were borrowing at the moment I would take the two year rate because it is so very, very low compared with past rates, it gives more rate stability than simply fixing one year, it is much lower than rates for longer terms, and fixed rates may only decline a small amount more from current levels if the RB cuts the official cash rate again. For Noting Tall Poppy Syndrome Back in 2011 I wrote a series of papers looking at impediments to growth of the NZ economy and concluded that the biggest impediment may be our business culture which includes the Tall Poppy syndrome. In case you would like a neat little summary of some of our practices related to cutting down Tall Poppies click on the two links below which take you to a couple of videos on YouTube made by Jordan Giesige – a North American making monthly reports about his time in our country. He discusses the Tall Poppy syndrome and references material which I produced in 2011, based upon the work of Tony Smale. Enjoy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IqH9hxIcag https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccw1rxjfrD4 Consumer Goods Imports Booming? One might look at the Merchandise Trade data for September released this week and conclude that in spite of consumer sentiment slipping to below average levels from July consumer spending growth had boomed. The value of imports of consumer goods in the September quarter was 20% higher than a year earlier. And the annualised pace of growth in core retail spending measured in the Electronic Card Transactions data lifted to 8.2% in the three months to September from only 1.1% growth in the June quarter. However the NZD in August last year was buying near US 85 cents, 50 pence, and 87 Yen compared with rates near 68 cents, 44 pence, and 81 Yen respectively now. The lower NZD has simply boosted the landed cost of both consumer and capital goods – the latter being ahead in the September quarter by 17% from a year before. So, much as we believe there is solidity to consumer spending growth in New Zealand assisted by the removal of rising interest rate expectations, presence of a firm labour market, and booming net immigration, things are not really booming. In fact the sharp rise in the value of consumer goods imports says to us that with consumers more price sensitive than before retailers are in for some major margin contraction in the coming year which will tend to weed out a few more operators and challenge prices of listed operators. Financial Instability Central banks continue their policy of cutting interest rates and keeping them very low in order to try and foster stronger growth. Such efforts along with money printing have yielded generally poor results and in spite of that speculation is rising of extra money printing by the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, and further delays in the initial tightening of monetary policy in the United States with rates rising less over the “cycle” than previously anticipated. (Post-GFC cycles are dead.) Liquidity conditions remain easy, highly liquid, and more and more money is seeking assets yielding something, anything. The Bank for Internal Settlements and IMF have both expressed concerns that if we had poor understanding of links between the financial sector and real economic activity leading into the GFC, our understanding now may be even worse yet the quantities of funds involved far greater. Prudential regulators are trying their best to prepare their economies for the next financial shock – one of which seems to come along every ten years or so. This preparation takes the form of deepening regulation of financial institutions including higher capital requirements. Given the global liquidity bath does not look like ending for many years the risks are that the regulators move toward more measures aimed explicitly at stamping out the fires they see springing up as cashed up investors target assets – like housing for instance. Thus one should not lightly dismiss the NZ Treasury recommendation made in a paper sent to the Reserve Bank discussing the loan to value ratio rules where Treasury suggest debt to income rules. The RB have made enough comments regarding problems they are encountering and working through in seeing if such rules could be introduced to make one conclude that their introduction is highly likely if strong house price rises in Auckland continue. https://www.interest.co.nz/property/78314/treasury-expresses-enthusiasm-debt-income-ratios-paperreserve-bank-sees-them If such rules come in what will they look like? Something along the lines of mortgage debt not being able to exceed perhaps 4.5 times income for a household. The restriction may apply to a geographic area, perhaps exclude first home buyers. Though that latter exclusion may not achieve the improvement in financial stability the central bank would like as first home buyers generally purchase at quite high debt to income ratios. The following article discusses the June 2014 rules introduced by the Bank of England. http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/bank-of-england-s-new-mortgage-rules-aimed-atcontrolling-household-debt-9566519.html The message here is this. If interest rates can’t go up as economies grow because technology, excess capacity, and behavioural changes keep inflation well in check, then other means need to be found to keep liquidity growth under control and limit the risk of deep financial shocks which could cause depressions. The period of experimentation by central banks aimed at finding effective prudential tools suitable for the coming decades has only just started. Borrowing costs to you and I will stay low for decades. But credit availability is on the cusp of becoming far, far more difficult these next ten years. How to cope with this as a borrow? Talk with your grandparents about how they got a mortgage before 1985.

The Weekly Overview is written by Tony Alexander, Chief Economist at the Bank of New Zealand. The views expressed are my own and do not purport to represent the views of the BNZ. To receive the Weekly Overview each Thursday night please sign up at www.tonyalexander.co.nz To change your address or unsubscribe please click the link at the bottom of your email. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz

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Amnesty International alleges damning evidence of Australian officials’ involvement in transnational crime

Selwyn Manning — Wed, 28 Oct 2015 23:16:40 +0000

MIL OSI – Editor’s Note: Amnesty International alleges Australia’s maritime border control is operating as a lawless entity that AI asserts, based on information it has acquired, has committed criminal offences. This report is sourced from Amnesty International and presents Amnesty’s allegations for your perusal.

Source Information Follows: Amnesty International – New evidence gathered by Amnesty International suggests that Australia’s maritime border control operations now resemble a lawless venture with evidence of criminal activity, pay-offs to boat crews and abusive treatment of women, men and children seeking asylum. [caption id="attachment_498007" align="alignleft" width="169"] Australian border force ships, viewed from the deck of the asylum-seekers’ boat, May 2015.[/caption]

Through interviews with asylum-seekers, a boat crew and Indonesian police, a new report – By hook or by crook – exposes evidence that, in May 2015, Australian officials working as part of Operation Sovereign Borders paid six crew who had been taking 65 people seeking asylum to New Zealand USD 32,000 and told them to take the people to Indonesia instead. The Australians also provided maps showing the crew where to land in Indonesia.

Witness testimonies backed by video footage reveal how the intervention by Australian officials endangered the lives of the people seeking asylum by transferring them to different boats that did not have enough fuel, and how the incident fits into a wider pattern of abusive so-called “turnbacks” or “pushbacks” of boats.

The report also raises questions about whether Australian officials paid money to the crew of another boat turned back in July.

“Australia has, for months, denied that it paid for people smuggling, but our report provides detailed evidence pointing to a very different set of events,” said Anna Shea, Refugee Researcher at Amnesty International.

“All of the available evidence points to Australian officials having committed a transnational crime by, in effect, directing a people-smuggling operation, paying a boat crew and then instructing them on exactly what to do and where to land in Indonesia. People-smuggling is a crime usually associated with private individuals, not governments – but here we have strong evidence that Australian officials are not just involved, but directing operations.

“In the two incidents documented by Amnesty International, Border Force and Navy officials also put the lives of dozens of people at risk by forcing them onto poorly equipped vessels. When it comes to its treatment of those seeking asylum, Australia is becoming a lawless state.”

May 2015 incident

[caption id="attachment_498009" align="alignleft" width="225"] 32,000USD which crew members told Amnesty International was paid to them by Australian officials after intercepting their ship bound for New Zealand with 65 asylum seekers aboard[/caption]

Since this incident was first reported in the media, Australian government officials have repeatedly denied paying people-smugglers and have claimed the border patrols were responding to a boat in distress at sea.

However, the crew members of the boat – interviewed by Amnesty International in Indonesia in August where they are currently in police custody – as well as the passengers, whom Amnesty International also interviewed, all say the boat was not in trouble and that they never made a distress call.

Australian border control officials initially approached the boat on 17 May 2015, and then again on 22 May. Most of the passengers– including a pregnant woman, two seven-year-olds and an infant – boarded a Border Force vessel after being told they could bathe there. Once aboard they were kept in cells for about a week. Some were denied medical care or access to their own medication.

On the original boat, the six crew claim that Australian officials gave them a total of 32,000 USD. At least one person seeking asylum witnessed the transaction and gave his testimony to Amnesty International. Indonesian police confirmed to Amnesty International that they found this amount of money on the crew when they arrested them on arrival in the country.

Amnesty International’s investigation is based on interviews with the 62 adults seeking asylum, the six crew members and Indonesian officials. The organisation has also accessed crucial documentary evidence, including photos and a video taken by the passengers themselves during their journey. Indonesian police also showed an Amnesty International researcher the money they confiscated from the six crew – in crisp US 100 dollar bills.

On 31 May Australian officials transferred the crew and people seeking asylum onto two different and smaller boats, and the crew were given instructions to go to Rote Island in Indonesia as well as a map showing landing sites. The two boats had little fuel and one ran out of fuel while at sea. The terrified passengers were forced to do a dangerous mid-sea transfer onto the remaining boat and were eventually rescued by Indonesian locals after hitting a reef.

The July incident

[caption id="attachment_7852" align="alignleft" width="169"] Image: Amnesty International: Australian border force ships, viewed from the deck of the asylum-seekers’ boat, May 2015.[/caption]

By hook or by crook documents another case of possible payment by Australian officials to a boat crew to smuggle people to Indonesia in July 2015. This case, unlike the May 2015 incident, has not received widespread media coverage. In this case Australian officials again appear to have directed the crew of a boat to take people to Rote Island in Indonesia. Passengers who were on the boat told Amnesty International that they were intercepted by the Australian Navy and Border Force on 25 July, and then put onto a new boat on 1 August. By this time the boat crew had two new bags that the passengers had not seen before. When the passengers became suspicious and threatened to open the bags the Australians repeatedly told them not to.

These incidents took place in the context of Australia’s Operation Sovereign Borders (OSB), a military-led border control operation launched in 2013 to stop anyone – including refugees and people seeking asylum – from reaching Australia irregularly by boat.

Amnesty International is calling for a Royal Commission into Operation Sovereign Borders, to investigate and report on allegations of criminal and unlawful acts committed by Australian government officials.

Despite persistent government claims that OSB is designed to “save life at sea,” Amnesty International and many others have documented an alarming pattern of abusive and illegal pushbacks by the Australian authorities.

Other people seeking asylum in Indonesia told Amnesty International how they had been involved in pushbacks at sea by Australian officials, who they said used verbal and physical abuse against those on board boats.

Such turnbacks violate the principle of non-refoulement, which says refugees cannot be sent back to countries where they are at risk, and also deny people the right to have their asylum claims assessed.

“Operation Sovereign Borders, far from saving lives, has become synonymous with abuse of some of the world’s most vulnerable people. Australia must once and for all start taking its international obligations towards refugees seriously. All people seeking asylum deserve to have their claims fairly dealt with. And instead of continuing with turnbacks Australia must engage in effective dialogue to improve regional protections for vulnerable populations in the Asia-Pacific region, and expand safe and legal routes for people to reach safety,” said Anna Shea.

BACKGROUND

The UN Convention against Transnational Organised Crime (Convention) sets out states’ legal obligations to cooperate to prevent and combat transnational organised crime. The Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea and Air (Smuggling Protocol), which supplements the Convention, requires states to prevent and combat the smuggling of migrants and protect the rights of smuggled persons. Australia has ratified both the Convention and the Smuggling Protocol. The Smuggling Protocol requires that signatories criminalize the smuggling of migrants, which is defined as “the procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or other material benefit, of the illegal entry of a person into a State Party of which the person is not a national or a permanent resident”.

People-smuggling is a transnational crime, though people who are smuggled are not criminals, and international law forbids states from penalizing asylum-seekers solely for the manner of their entry into a country.

Under the Smuggling Protocol, the modes of commission – in other words, the ways in which someone can be found responsible – of a smuggling offence include committing an offence, attempting to commit an offence, participating as an accomplice in an offence, and organising or directing others to commit an offence.

The evidence collected by Amnesty International about the events of May 2015 indicates that on or about 24 May Australian officials appear to have organised or directed the crew to commit a people-smuggling offence. It was under Australian officials’ instruction and with their material assistance (including two boats, fuel, maps and GPS) that the offence of smuggling people into Indonesia took place. The mode of entry into Indonesia that, according to the crew, the Australian officials directed them to follow – landing at identified points in Rote Island rather than presenting themselves to Indonesian border officials and complying with procedures for entry by boat to Indonesia – amounts to illegal entry within the terms of the Smuggling Protocol. The 32,000 USD constitutes a financial benefit to the crew to procure the illegal entry. The Australian officials who paid the crew and instructed them to land on Rote Island in May 2015 may also have participated as accomplices in the transnational crime of people-smuggling.

Notes

The full report is available here

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Beware the streets of Wellington!

Selwyn Manning — Fri, 24 Jul 2015 04:55:22 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com – Contributed by Olexander Barnes Wellington is the city where the vampire film “What we do in the Shadows” takes place, but there are more dangers on our streets than just vampires. Living Streets Aotearoa and the Urban Design Forum are two groups that are keenly aware of potential dangers that plague our city and have been using Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) to identify and find solutions for them. As a way of shining some light on their work and to raise awareness of the darker side of Wellington, they organised a walk round some of the pathways and streets, just a hairs breath away from the glitz and glamour of Courtenay Place where Taika Waititi and his vampire compatriots stalk. So on a calm winter Wednesday evening, last night, a well-sized group assembled. Comprised of various members of the community including a policeman (in uniform), council workers, architects, students and members of Walkwise Wellington. The walk began at the bottom of Manners and Burke street winding its way up Allenby Terrace steps, past the little known Terrace Park, up on to Percival street, then on to The Terrace, down Burke street steps and down a dimly lit path complete with flickering light and thick bushes, that links MacDonald’s Crescent to Burke street. This was all a stark reminder that many Wellington backstreets are perfectly suited to less savory creatures of the night. The walk made its way back down Burke Street before finishing back at the same corner where it had started.

Credit: Patrik Nygren

At various times during the route there were stops to point out many of the dangers that fill Wellingtons’ paths and walkways. Some them were very subtle in nature. A recessed gate on a shadowy part of Allenby Terrace was pointed out as a potential ambush point. Trees blocking overhead streetlights were constantly pointed out as they reduce lighting. The subtlest hazard was some horizontal beams on a fence that could be used as a ladder for someone to climb over and on to a car park where vehicles have been stolen. These were just some of the lurking dangers identified throughout the walk. The walk provided a very effective illumination of the potential dangers that lurk on Wellington’s streets. Though help is at hand by using CPTED, both the Urban Design Forum and Living Streets Aotearoa along with the Wellington City Council are hoping to provide solutions to many of the dangers. Actions that can be taken include upgrading streetlights to brighter more energy efficient LED light bulbs, which would also be more directional and better at illuminating the necessary areas. Plans are being made to add more overhead lighting to certain paths, where currently the shadows are too deep and plentiful. There was discussion in making sure that paths with trees growing beside were maintained to stop them growing too thick, providing hiding spots and making sure that they did not block streetlights. While we must always remain vigilant while travelling around our city and the many dangers exist, it is good to know that some of these dangers are being recognised and dealt with. Maybe the shadows that haunt this city will become things of legend! –]]>

He Māramatanga Huangō: Advocacy for Asthma

Selwyn Manning — Fri, 24 Jul 2015 04:55:19 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com It may be a fact of the news cycle that Thursday night’s release of research focused on asthma health literacy for Māori children in New Zealand – He Māramatanga Huangō – wasn’t destined to make the 6pm bulletin. That’s a sad fact. Asthma is a respiratory condition that literally takes your breath away. It can and does kill. In New Zealand it’s well known as a condition that affects a large proportion of the population – with up to one in nine adults and one in seven children taking asthma medication. In terms of knowing someone with asthma, that’s a small degree of separation. It seems natural then to think of this as an area of health focus that would be being constantly prioritised, with every effort being made to provide, to use the words of Governor-General Sr Jerry Mateparae as Asthma Foundation patron: “new way(s) forward”. Large numbers of children are still being hospitalised with asthma: 3,730 in 2013. Many of them with a potentially life threatening attack. The figures for Māori and Pacific New Zealanders are undeniably adverse, with rates of hospitalisation that are estimated to be 3 to 4 times higher than European New Zealanders.

Bridget Jones and Dr Tristram Ingham

Even a brief korero with lead researcher Bernadette Jones and co-author Dr Tristram Ingham last night made it obvious that this was a highly practical project. Commissioned from the University of Otago by the Ministry of Health and Asthma Foundation it followed a very targeted and tikanga aligned methodology that is also obviously very timely. A feature of the launch event was the respect shown to the often unheard voices of the large number of people interviewed for the research, be that the online survey across 800 health professionals with a role in asthma management, or the seventeen in-depth, semi-structured interviews and three focus groups held with Māori whānau who have at least one child with asthma aged 4-18 years.

Honey Brown at the launch of He Māramatanga Huangō. Honey has experienced asthma throughout her childhood.

Māori tamariki experience a greater prevalence of severe asthma

As stated in the report the inequalities apparent in the greater prevalence of severe asthma experienced by Māori tamariki, leading to other consequences such as more days off school for asthma-related illness, are striking. Or as Mrs Jones put it: “These are statistics we don’t want to have”. Even more striking is the point made that while the prevalence of asthma has decreased for New Zealand European children over the past few decades, this reduction has not occurred for Māori. Based on the report’s unequivocal statement that addressing the burden of childhood asthma for Māori is “a critical issue warranting urgent action”, it was tragic to read that many recommendations for strategies to reduce these disparities that have been available since a 1991 ministerial review of Maori asthma, He Mate Huangō, remain unimplemented. Dr Ingham showed admirable professional restraint in speaking about a health system that has simply not been responding effectively. On the surface it certainly seems inexplicable that despite a higher prevalence of disease and severity of symptoms, Maori children are dispensed fewer preventive treatments, resulting in poorer overall asthma control.

Focussing on a new model of care

What impresses about this research is that it doesn’t indulge in finger pointing, but rather zeroes in on what a new model of care would look like and how that would work. Dr Ingham: “We realised early on in this research that context is everything. (Taking into account) what interactions late at night are like, interactions between people who may never have met before”. Aside from asthma not being located within a chronic disease management approach – as it’s framed by the World Health Organisation – or within a health literacy and cultural competency context, the current root problem can be thought of as an unfortunate series of failures to communicate, combined with a frustrating set of constraints on exchanging information – beginning with too little time and including other factors such as location and cost. On the health professionals side, this research confirmed that genuine efforts are being made to recognise the information needs of patients and to deliver understandable information. Equally from a whanau point of view significant efforts take place to try to navigate what is frequently an asthmatic rollercoaster, using as much knowledge and skills as available. What came through loud and clear at this report’s launch is that the very reactive and episodic bias of the acute care model of the health system is what, in reality, works against optimal asthma management. It’s a system built around sitting back and waiting for children to become unwell before responding to their asthma.

“This research report is a taonga”

In the opinion of Paula Searle, acting Ministry of Health Deputy Director General of Māori Health, having this systemic issue headlined elevates He Māramatanga Huangō (Understanding Asthma) to being “one of the best research reports we’ve ever funded… a real treasure, or taonga”. In her words of endorsement and support for the report, Searle highlighted not her own words but some of the numerous quotes from the perspective of those most affected by asthma as contained in He Māramatanga Huangō. “I find these very emotional, many of them make me cry … and that shouldn’t be happening,” she added. From whānau interviews it emerged that there is a widespread belief amongst Māori parents that asthma is a normal part of gowing up in their community. There was, as recorded in the report, “a normalisation or expectation that their children would be hospitalised with asthma, without realising that many of these hospitalisations could be prevented”. It was apparent from the interviews that parents and whānau wanted more knowledge about a range of aspects concerning asthma management, but they felt asthma education was largely limited to medications. Some parents and whānau reported having never been taught what causes asthma or what triggers an asthma attack. As supported by this quote:

“…we didn’t know that she was that severe, we were giving her the reliever but that wasn’t doing anything and we didn’t know, I didn’t know that there were other things we were meant to watch, we had a bad case before we got the education. We always took it seriously but we weren’t educated about what the different stages were.”

As summarised in the report, most whānau were “under-confident in their own abilities”, and expressed frustration at the lack of proactive holistic care, and failure of the health system to respond to their needs. And again, despite using a range of informal techniques to gauge understanding, many health professionals admitted they found it particularly challenging to find a way to assess whether the parent or child – their patient – had fully grasped key asthma messages. Mrs Jones: “Whānau can’t be blamed or judged, nor health professionals, for confusing and inconsistent messages. Many sufferers are never actually given the diagnosis of asthma, and who among us is actually trained in understanding, let alone communicating, anatomy or physiology?” Dr Ingham: “Could you explain all the complexities in five minutes? I doubt it… because it’s a high level order of learning (that takes time)”. As Dr Ingham says this isn’t being taken seriously enough. Surely that has to change. [This is part 1 of a series by the NewsRoom_Plus team of Stephen Olsen, Shereel Patel-Gaunavinaka and Rupeni Vatubuli] _________________________________________________

RECOMMENDATIONS

Excerpt, page 73:

In determining our recommendations we have adopted a systems approach to health literacy, to avoid the deficit notion of poor health literacy whereby it is considered the responsibility of the patient/whānau. All whānau have their own levels of knowledge, skill and internal resources to manage a chronic illness; however, it is our assertion that the health system must accommodate whānau equitably. We conclude that the predominant barriers to optimal health literacy for Māori children with asthma are structural, endemic to the acute care model of health delivery that currently predominates.

Mātauranga (Knowledge)

Delivering Understandable Best-Practice Asthma Advice for Māori Children Health System (Macro Level) The health system needs to recognise the burden of asthma facing New Zealand society, and Māori children in particular. It must take action to promote widespread public awareness of asthma, its causes, and the potential seriousness of the condition. It is vital that updated New Zealand-specific guidelines for the management of childhood asthma be developed that cater for our unique population, specific health environment and latest therapeutic options in order to ensure the provision of consistent, up-to-date, evidence-based best-practice information. Recommendations

Promote enhanced public awareness of asthma, its potential seriousness and preventive measures.
Work in partnership with the education sector to integrate fundamental asthma health knowledge into school curricula.
Update New Zealand-specific best-practice management guidelines for paediatric asthma.
Develop step-wise learning objectives and a curriculum for asthma management.
Fund research that provides evidence for effective asthma interventions that activate and empower whānau to support children with asthma.

Health Organisations (Meso Level) The maintenance of clinical skills is an on-going task. Health organisations need to assume responsibility for the maintenance of best-practice standards within their organisation and for the provision of in-service training of their staff with respect to asthma management. Asthma is a chronic disease, and asthma education is a longitudinal, step-wise process. Information systems are important to monitor asthma care, alongside the provision of asthma education, to ensure elements are not accidentally omitted and relevant items are reinforced periodically. Recommendations

Invest in regular in-service training for staff on asthma best practice. • Utilise GP patient management systems to provide longitudinal asthma education monitoring.
Develop asthma training packages for patients, whānau and communities.
Nominate a staff member to the role of ‘asthma champion’ with responsibility for leading uptake of best-practice guidelines, resource implementation and quality assurance monitoring.
Include the populations served in the design, implementation and evaluation of health information and services.

Health Professionals (Micro Level) Health professionals need to be able to provide up-to-date best-practice asthma care for Māori children which takes account of the: age of the child; level of severity or treatment step; existing knowledge; learning style; and cultural preferences of the whānau. All children with asthma should have clear, individualised, asthma management plans (developed in partnership with the whānau) and be able to effectively implement them. Asthma education needs to focus more broadly than disease-specific knowledge and medication compliance to incorporate holistic objectives, including health promotion, self-management and disease prevention. Recommendations

Maintain a high level of competency in current best practice for the management of childhood asthma.
Ensure all children have access to individualised, understandable asthma action plans.
Follow a step-wise education plan when providing asthma support to Māori patients.
Provide updated electronic access to asthma plans for whānau, community health workers and schools.
Routinely utilise specialist (medical and/or nursing) respiratory and paediatric expertise to effectively manage those whānau with complex health-care needs.

Whakaakoako (Teaching Strategies)

Using Effective Strategies to Communicate about Asthma with Māori Children Health System (Macro Level) The health system needs to recognise and promote the importance of health literacy and chronic disease management competencies for all health professionals and other health-care workers involved in asthma management. Health professional bodies and academic training institutions need to ensure adequate provision of training in these areas and provide monitoring in the attainment of these skills. The health system must also promote the integration of cultural competency, cross-cultural communication and holistic Māori models of health into all levels of the health sector to ensure the health workforce are equipped to engage in meaningful collaborative partnerships with Māori patients. Recommendations 

Influence medical, nursing and pharmacy schools and other health training programmes to teach health literacy and chronic care management to students.
Establish and monitor competencies for all health professionals in health literacy education and chronic disease management.
Set an expectation within health policies and strategies that all health services will deliver high- quality care that focuses on meeting the health needs and aspirations of Māori children with asthma.

Health Organisations (Meso Level) Health organisations need to work collaboratively with the populations they serve to identify and develop high-quality resources for children with asthma and to incorporate these into their educational strategies (particularly interactive and audio-visual resources, along with resources designed specifically to address the needs of Māori children). There is a need for education support tools for asthma to monitor the longitudinal provision of asthma care for Māori children and their whānau. Innovative, flexible and community-based asthma educational approaches need to be adopted to better meet the needs of Māori whānau. Recommendations 

Work collaboratively with children with asthma to develop high-quality asthma resources for a range of ages and levels of asthma knowledge – particularly interactive and/or audio-visual resources, and resources specifically for Māori children.
Develop longitudinal asthma education support and monitoring tools for patients/whānau. •
Develop community-based, health literacy asthma support and education sessions that are culturally appropriate for Māori children and whānau.

Health Professionals (Micro Level) Teaching strategies employed by health professionals need to engage the patient and their whānau according to the specific needs and learning preferences of the family. They need to empower and activate patients to be able to take an active role in their own health care, and provide them with the tools to do this. This involves a requirement for specific training in health literacy-based education techniques, chronic disease management education strategies and cultural responsiveness. High-quality resources utilising a range of media need to be available which can support health professional-led engagements, and reinforce key messages for all ages and levels of understanding. Recommendations 

Ensure all consultations are seen as opportunities to build health literacy, promote patient activation and support asthma self-management.
Undertake specific training in the use of health literacy-based education techniques.
Regularly incorporate a variety of learning media (e.g. interactive/tactile/audio-visual asthma resources) to support asthma education.
Continue to develop cultural competency skills for engaging with Māori children and whānau.

Whakawhanake (Workforce Development)

Building Relationships and Working Together to Support Māori Children with Asthma Health System (Macro Level) In order to meet the on-going needs of Māori children with asthma (and other chronic diseases) the health system must develop a range of health-care personnel equipped to meet the specific challenges of providing chronic disease management. This must include coordinated development of inter-professional and team-care strategies that clarify roles and expand scopes of practice to provide integrated support for chronic disease management. Such inter-professional approaches need to include recognition of the roles that asthma educators, pharmacists, non-professional health-care workers, community organisation staff and trained volunteers can have in supporting the provision of holistic integrated asthma care. Recommendations

Explore models of integrated care to promote closer working relationships between health professionals, and enhanced inter-professional learning opportunities.
Improve role delineation for health professional groups in the chronic disease management of asthma in support of a multidisciplinary support approach.
Formalise and expand scopes of practice for other health-worker roles (such as asthma educators, pharmacists and community health workers) to support the provision of holistic integrated asthma care.

Health Organisations (Meso Level) Effective asthma care requires a team approach. Health organisations need to develop and adopt policies and procedures that encourage better interdisciplinary harmonisation. This also involves a need for improved links with other providers within and beyond the health sector to address the dynamic and holistic well-being of Māori children with asthma. Health organisations must also mandate the inclusion of cultural competency across the organisation to ensure all staff understand and practise effective ways of engaging with Māori in clinical settings. Recommendations

Provide policies and procedures for cross-disciplinary harmonisation of asthma management and education.
Develop collaborations and provider networks (e.g. within and between DHBs, PHOs, Māori providers, NGOs and other community agencies) to support implementation of best practice for asthma and chronic care management approaches.
Mandate the inclusion of cultural competency across the organisation to ensure all staff understand effective ways of engaging with Māori in clinical settings.

Health Professionals (Micro Level) Effective asthma management requires the establishment of long-term trusted relationships with patients in order to build a shared understanding of values, priorities and management strategies. No individual health professional has sufficient capacity or capability to be the sole provider of asthma management support. Health professionals need to establish collaborative relationships with their professional colleagues and community partner organisations to develop a shared understanding of the responsibilities for asthma education in order to ensure the education is consistent, timely and comprehensive. Recommendations • Maintain continuous high-quality relationships to build long-term trust relationships with patients. • Routinely explore the manageability of asthma management plans and utilise relevant support services to address identified barriers. • Develop collaborative partnerships with Māori health providers, Whānau Ora providers and other community-based organisations in support of asthma care for Māori children.

Te Anga (Model of Care)

Health Care Services That Meet the Health Needs of Māori Health System (Macro Level) Critically, the health system must recognise that the current system based around reactive, episodic care is failing Māori children with asthma, and is being manifested in significant inequalities in asthma health outcomes. The health system urgently needs to implement a chronic care management model to provide proactive, longitudinal, patient/whānau-centred, culturally responsive care to Māori children with asthma within a multidisciplinary team environment. The health system must also ensure services for asthma are integrated to provide shared information across settings, providers and time – minimising fragmentation, service delivery gaps and patient frustration. Integration must also include extending policies that support patient-centred health care, prioritise health promotion, engender patient activation and encourage self- management. Recommendations

Implement a systematic chronic care management model for asthma care to provide long-term, proactive, whānau-centred multidisciplinary support.
Develop and support shared information platforms allowing integration of asthma support and monitoring between providers.
Align provider incentives so that proactive chronic disease management efforts are rewarded.
Allow flexibility within Care Plus eligibility criteria to include asthma as a single qualifying condition.
Fund a free annual asthma review in primary care.

Health Organisations (Meso Level) Health Organisations need to adopt a proactive chronic care management approach to all aspects of asthma support within organisational policies and procedures. Health literacy policies and procedures also need to be integrated into the organisational culture so that every asthma interaction aligns with effective learning outcomes. These organisations need to contribute to generating evidence that informs community initiatives that activate whānau and build asthma self-management capabilities, and incorporate mechanisms to support holistic well-being for Māori children with asthma. Recommendations

Develop and implement health literacy policies and procedures for staff.
Adopt a proactive chronic care management approach to all aspects of asthma support within organisational policies and procedures.
Incorporate a philosophy of culturally competent holistic care into organisational policies and individual consultations with Māori.
Contribute to the generation of evidence-informing initiatives to activate whānau and build asthma self-management capabilities.

Health Professionals (Micro Level) Māori children with asthma face significant barriers to effective asthma management. Although many of these barriers have their origins in inequalities of the determinants of health, it is imperative that health professionals recognise the contribution of barriers within health care that contribute to sub-optimal outcomes. Health professionals need to ensure that all their patients are receiving eligible supports or benefits, and that accessibility or affordability are not preventing optimal health outcomes. Recommendations

Routinely incorporate chronic care management approaches into asthma consultations, including using proactive strategies to provide preventive advice when patients are well.
Ensure follow-up visits are provided after acute presentations/hospitalisation.
Provide access to asthma self-management support after-hours via the internet or telephone.
Ensure all children with asthma are offered support packages when eligible (e.g. Care Plus, Disability Allowance, Whānau Ora services).

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Otago V Vic University Debate: Strong arguments for and against euthanasia

Selwyn Manning — Thu, 23 Jul 2015 02:55:55 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com – Contributed by Olexander Barnes Debates on issues like euthanasia deserve the widest possible audience. It was fitting then that the lecture hall in the Otago campus next to Wellington hospital was packed full of people, all eager to hear a debate between the University of Otago Medical School and the Victoria University debating team. The subject, if Euthanasia should be legal in New Zealand. The euthanasia debate was recently revived in New Zealand with Lawyer Lecretia Seales’ High Court bid to allow her doctor to assist her to die in the course of her battle with terminal brain cancer. Otago Medical School hosted the debate, in which they faced off against the debating team from Victoria University. Otago’s debating team was comprised of a 4^th year medical student, a master’s student in perinatal science, and a post-doctorate who specialises in neuroscience. They faced Victoria University’s debating team comprised of a philosophy student, a law/politics student and a maths/economics student. The audience was told at the beginning that because the teams had been assigned their sides at random, the debaters may be presenting views that were contrary to their own beliefs. If this was the case the Otago side did not show it. They delivered their individual arguments with clear and concise passion in making a very strong case. They argued that euthanasia was a personal freedom that would allow people to escape from unnecessary suffering and for the right of a person to choose their own treatment. The Victoria team put their debating skills on show. The first of their arguments was the standard argument, of sanctity of life, but instead of taking a religious tack justifying this argument they took a mathematical/scientific stance stating the incredibly improbable odds of an individual existing at all. They also raised the issue that people may be coerced by family members or their own feelings of being a burden in making their choice. They were tactical and showed that they had put careful thought into their arguments but there was a general vibe that their delivery lacked the conviction of the Otago team. As well as the debating teams there was also a panel. It was comprised of Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway who has in the past supported euthanasia initiatives in Parliament, Dr. Sinéad Donnelly, a Palliative Medicine Specialist doctor of over 25 years and senior lecturer from the University of Otago, and Dr Angela Ballantyne, a Bioethicist and senior lecturer at Otago. Several times during the debate members of the panel were given the opportunity to express their own views and to comment on the debate. Given the seriousness of the topic Iain Lees-Galloway brought a relatively light-hearted approach to comments. At the same time, he stressed that in any legislation there would be safeguards to ensure ethical practice. Dr Sinéad Donnelly remained staunchly against euthanasia arguing that legalising it would be detrimental to the doctor-patient relationship, saying “Doctors are not meant to kill their patients” Dr Angela Ballantyne took a neutral stance and critiqued both sides. She challenged several ideas that had been touched on including highlighting the dangers of using “slippery slope” as an argument. The debate closed without there being a determined winner, though it was acknowledged that the debate was of the highest quality and the suggestion of more debates in the future was welcomed. –]]>

Research confirms state of flux in accounting industry

Selwyn Manning — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 23:55:24 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com – Contributed by Common Ledger Accountants are under pressure to change the way they work as their industry undergoes rapid and dramatic shifts according to new research from leading global research company Ipsos and New Zealand-based growth software business Common Ledger. The Ipsos survey commissioned by Common Ledger has highlighted the impact of new technology and changing demand in what clients want and expect from their accountants.The survey focused on selected small to medium sized accounting firms in Australia. Ipsos conducted telephone interviews with both compliance and advisory specialists at 50 accounting firms in Sydney and Melbourne. The findings show that accountants live in a rapidly-evolving environment with a raft of new software and technology available to them to improve efficiency. At the same time, their clients are increasingly looking to accountants for guidance and advice as they navigate a fast-changing world. “The research we carried out with Common Ledger delivers some very valuable insights for the Australasian accounting industry,” says Ipsos Account Manager, Janet Cheng. “For example, it shows that the bulk of accountant’s time—around 60 percent—is spent on compliance while only 40 percent is spent on giving advice. “However it’s the advice that really adds value to clients, whether it is helping them achieve tax efficiencies or information about running their business. “Many accountants know they risk losing clients or becoming a compliance service only unless they adapt. There is a wealth of software out there to help them streamline their businesses and free up time for advisory work but many accountants don’t know what to choose, are risk averse and reluctant to change.” Common Ledger CEO Carlos Chambers says the research was commissioned to assist the accounting industry understand the drivers of change and better grasp what clients are looking for. “The reality is that advisory services are not well understood by many accounting firms. It’s a complex area—they are being asked to become trusted advisors across the business spectrum.” “Of course accountants know that—in fact they get bombarded with that message on a regular basis. But just hearing the message doesn’t really help. ‘Advisory’ means different things to different people, accountants and clients. One goal of the research was to help understand this more deeply and share the insights with industry.” Leading Australian online accounting firm Nudge Accounting is an early adopter and a company which is leading the way in reinventing accountants’ relationships with clients. Nudge Advisory Partner Trevor Schmitt says features of its new approach include regular interaction and contact with clients, monthly reporting and support for a range of cloud-based software. “Continuously assessing and improving our strategic advice services is a high priority for us. We realised early on that this is what clients are demanding. We are focused on understanding our clients and their businesses,” says Schmitt. Other findings from the research include confirmation that clients want strategic advice on the regulatory environment from their accountants and that while many accountants recognise the value of technology in increasing efficiency, they are also wary of extra costs and reliability issues. Chambers says the research sheds light on the opportunities the accounting industry can harness and the challenges it has to address. “We call it the Accountant’s Dilemma. It’s a very exciting time for the accounting industry with plenty of scope for firms to grow, but it’s a challenging time too. Clients want their accountants to be advisor, analyst and business partner. The ones who step up to this are the ones who are succeeding in the new environment and will continue to into the future.” You can read more Common Ledger stories here: story.commonledger.com –]]>

Tomorrow’s Schools 25 years on

Selwyn Manning — Mon, 20 Jul 2015 21:55:09 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com – Contributed by Pukeko Research Pūkeko Research has been pursuing an independent (unsponsored) study of inequality, education and society for two years. “Among other things, we wanted to know how 25 years of ‘school choice’ had changed the schooling system in New Zealand”, said Liz Gordon, project sponsor. Some findings from the study have been publicised over the past month, other were embargoed against publication in the New Zealand Journal of Educational Studies. The first finding is that there is a large socio-economic effect that has led to high decile schools becoming larger, and low decile schools declining in size, over at least twenty years. This effect is shown in the following graph, which shows the changes in the number of students in each decile between 1996 and 2014. Because the number of schools in each decile is roughly constant, changes in student numbers indicate average school size within the decile. This finding is consistent with every previous piece of research that has been done on school choice in New Zealand, which finds that parents make social/ economic rather than educational choices for their children. In short, the evidence is that parents choose ‘up’ for their children, to the extent that they can. This process of choosing ‘up’ over time has significantly unbalanced school size in New Zealand. In 1998, the average school roll in decile 1 schools was just over half the size of decile 10 schools. By 2014, the average decile 10 school was over 2.5 times the size of decile 1. By 2020 the size difference will be approximately 3 times. This has effects at both ends of the spectrum. For low decile schools, the constant loss of school numbers means that the per capita running costs of the school increase, as a school designed for higher numbers has to fund itself on less income. As schools get smaller, there is a loss of teachers, which on the ground means real teachers with specific, needed skills and expertise lose their jobs. Also, low decile schools often look old and dilapidated, as new capital funding is inevitably directed at the areas of growth – high decile schools. For high decile schools, the effect described here means they are often bursting at the seams, with too few classrooms, too few facilities, reduced outdoor areas and new staff coming in all the time. These schools may be relatively cash rich because of economies of scale, but face a wide range of demands from the public for places. One of the interesting research questions is whether the move to school choice has improved our overall school outcomes: are we a better educated country as a result? While New Zealand students are becoming increasingly credentialled, with rates of senior school passes rising each year, our overall performance on international measures such as the OECD’s PISA has been declining slowly since the 1990s, as have the results in other ‘school choice’ countries. The other interesting question is whether the effort that parents go to in choosing schools, transporting their children and supporting them often at quite distant schools leads to better outcomes for the children. There is currently no research evidence in New Zealand on the effects of choice on individuals. The second finding is that school choice has led to a massive loss of pākehā children from low-decile schools: a process often known as white flight. In 1996, pākehā students made up 39% of decile 1-5 students, but by 2013 this had declined to 25%. Only half a percent of pākehā students attend decile 1 schools. This process, from a pākehā perspective, is outlined in the figure below. Between 1996 and 2013, the process of social choice of schooling has progressively seen pākehā students attending higher decile schools. Three quarters of pākehā students now attend decile 6-10 schools. This large shift is the primary reason that low decile schools are becoming smaller. Apart from the points made above about the effects on size of schools and worsening outcomes, this large shift in pākehā attendance has significant implications for racial segmentation. New Zealand is a bicultural and increasingly multicultural society, but our high decile schools are almost bastions of whiteness. Decile one schools, which serve populations living below the poverty line (as do decile, 2, 3 and 4 schools), are 90% Māori and Pasifika in make-up. The worry is that the high level of educational segmentation will lead to social conflict over time. Could the Emanuel Church shooting occur at a Pasifika church in New Zealand? It is unlikely, but not out of the question where social segmentation is embedded. NOTE ON THE PROJECT: This is an ongoing project. It is based primarily on understanding the government’s own figures as published on the Education Counts website, and examining the implications. When some of the figures were released last month, the reporter was told that the figures were wrong. Pūkeko Research produced the workings to show that the only figures used were their own, and was eventually conceded that the figures were correct. However, the time taken to argue the correctness of the figures meant that the Ministry and Minister never got around to commenting on the implications of the findings, and they have not done so to this date. Published this month:

Gordon, Liz (2015) ‘Rich’ and ‘poor’ schools revisited. New Zealand Journal of Educational Studies, 50, 1.

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Mirror, mirror in the car who is the angriest of them all?

Selwyn Manning — Mon, 20 Jul 2015 05:55:19 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com Contributed by Rupeni Vatubuli With road congestion and car use as heavy as they are, it’s reasonable to ask what the difference between aggressive driving and road rage are? Canstar Blue reckon Australians are worse than New Zealanders – how do comparisons between countries stack up? So are aggressive driving and road rage the same thing? Aggressive driving is a traffic offense or combination of offences such as following too closely, speeding, unsafe lane changes, failing to signal intent to change lanes, and other forms of negligent or inconsiderate driving. Road rage, on the other hand, is a criminal offence. This occurs when a traffic incident escalates into a far more serious situation. For example, a person may become so angry over an aggressive driving incident that he or she overreacts and retaliates with some type of violence.

Source: driverstorymagazine.com

New Zealand

A recent survey by consumer research company Canstar Blue revealed Kiwis don’t always mind their manners on the road, with over a third having experienced a road rage incident.
While 39% of New Zealanders overall had been caught up in driver anger, It was more likely to be men (42%) compared with women at just 33%.

Australia

Road rage is even more commonplace over the ditch, where 42% have experienced a road rage incident and 65% of Australians frequently get frustrated by other road users.
Back in 2011, insurance provider GIO surveyed 3740 Australian motorists with 85% claiming drivers were more aggressive than ever before.
In a survey of 3000 drivers from 20 countries, conducted by LeasePlan UK in 2014, of which 52% of Australian drivers said they’d received aggressive gestures, 34% had been verbally abused and 40% had been blocked in the road.
Also last year’s survey of 1700 Australian motorists by law firm Slater & Gordon, revealed that 16% of Australians have a dash cam to record incidents of road rage, with a further 41% of drivers saying they wanted one.

USA

Statista inc (an online statistics portal) recorded the following for road rage behavior among drivers in the united states as of April 2015
According to the survey 53 percent of the respondents said they had been on the receiving end of a rude gesture from another driver. 26% yelled at and used profanity at another driver, 17% made a rude gesture, 13% felt threatened by another driver and 4% exited their vehicle to engage angrily with another motorist

China

With continued rapid economic growth, government statistics show a 20% jump in private car ownership in 2014 — to 105 million cars nationwide.
The World Health Organization has estimated that more than 200,000 people die on the roads of China every year.
From the beginning of 2012 to the end of April this year, police in China linked 104 million traffic violations to some form of road rage, ranging from forcibly changing lanes or overtaking other vehicles, to failing to yield.

United Kingdom

Carwow’s 2014 road rage survey has revealed that the vast majority of UK road users have been victims of road rage.
1,000 UK drivers at the end of 2014 were asked whether they’ve been on the giving or receiving end of road rage, what forms of road rage they’ve experienced/given as well as how often.
The results show that an astonishing 81% of people have been victims of road rage. Of these, 54% have been shouted at and 42% have been verbally abused, whereas 48% have had people drive aggressively at them as a result of road rage.

Source: 2014 LeasePlan Research Survey

7 ways to avoid road rage

Move over if someone is tailgating you
Use an ‘I’m Sorry” gesture (e.g. wave) to attempt to defuse the situation
Plan ahead; allow time for delays during your journey
Consider whether you have done something to annoy the driver and adjust your driving accordingly
Listen to music you enjoy
Use your horn sparingly
Avoid eye contact with angry drivers and give them plenty of room.

It also always pays to be mindful who’s sitting behind the wheel: Sources: –]]>

Bad reporting ahead: The ice age is not coming

Selwyn Manning — Fri, 17 Jul 2015 01:55:08 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com

The sun becoming less active, a new ice age is coming! Screamed the headlines across the internet. The call echoed from science blogs, across notable newspapers, throughout the twitter-sphere and on to Facebook.

People used this news to joke about having to buy more thermals, or used it reinforce their denial of climate change. Except the headline and the article were untrue.

The Larsen B ice shelf collapse in 2002 Credit: NASA

The story originated with a press release issued by the Royal Astronomical Society, announcing new research into the sun’s solar cycle, which allows for a greater understanding of how the solar cycle happens.

Within the press release there is a line that reads: “Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645.”

It was this phrasing and also the mention of “Maunder minimum, 370 years ago” that were jumped on by the media. Though ‘mini ice age’ was only mentioned in the press release and not in the research itself.

Within the press release it was clear that the maunder minimum was only mentioned to give some context. The research and its corresponding press release only dealt with the sun’s solar cycle not its effect on the earth’s climate.

When reporting this, the context was overlooked and links were drawn that were not there in either the press release or the research itself. It was sloppy reporting at its finest.

Once one reputable news source had reported it, others quickly copied it without returning to the original material for verification.

Then when someone did a fact check and that propagated around the Internet, news sources were either forced to redact the story or as many chose to do, publish another story with the fact checked information in it.

This coincides with a new found interest in science and the ability of the internet to provide us with information, along with a growing number of science based news sites and Facebook groups including ScienceAlert, IFLScience and Sciencedump to name but a few.

Overall this new interest in science is a positive thing. However, it does come with its pitfalls. The major pitfall is the oversimplification of content for ease of reading, and the under qualification of those reporting the material.

Scientific reports are mostly published in scientific journals, which can be long dry reads – on the reasonable assumption that most of the people reading these papers will be mostly academics or people that already have solid knowledge of the often complex subject matter being discussed.

Most scientific journals are peer reviewed, with expert scrutiny to make sure that it conforms to academic standards before it is published.

Scientific magazines such as Scientific American and New Scientist have also been practising this for over 150 years.

What these more popular magazines aim to do is to provide a way for the general public to have access and understanding of current scientific events in a way that they can understand.

They tend to take articles reported in scientific papers and reformat them into a structure that people can understand. There is an assumption that that those reading these texts will have a limited knowledge of the subject, if any, so some background information may be inserted, as well as visual aids such as charts or drawings to aid understanding.

The people that tend to contribute articles to these publications range from the original researchers themselves to science writers who if not academics do come from the area of study that they are reporting about. The magazine may also employ its own journalists who would be employed on the basis that they have some training and understanding in how to read and interpret scientific papers correctly.

Articles can range from a couple hundred of words to articles that span over several pages depending on where in the magazine that article are placed in.

Magazines tend to be issued on a schedule, weekly, monthly, yearly etc, this means that they are less subjected to the pressures of standard news reporting, they have the time to check and recheck articles before publication.

Newspapers historically used to employ their own science journalists who would have specific training in interpreting scientific papers and would write weekly or less frequent columns about the current happenings in science.

Now in the age of the internet with falling budgets and the trend to churn out as much content as fast as possible, the job of reporting science is being given to the average journalist. There is less likelihood they will know how to fully interpret the literature that they are basing their stories upon, and having a greater reliance on sourcing material from other newspapers to cover any shortfall means that many of the safeguards against misinformation that scientific magazines have are not there within the standard newspaper.

This is made worse with the move to online where articles are being reduced in length for easy viewing on smartphones and tablets. Highly complicated subjects will never readily reduce down to the size of a tweet and the chance for misreporting is increased dramatically.

Then there is the rise of the science blog and other such sites. Many of these sites have appeared within the last five years taking advantage of social media and a renewed appetite for science.

Enthusiasts run most of these blogs. Many do not have a science background, though some of them do. Elise Andrew of the popular Facebook page IFL Science for example does have a bachelor in biology.

Many recycle science content from other places around the internet. Thus many of them fail to factcheck their content as it comes through and are using other news outlets to source content from.

Many of these blogs also utilise social media to drive people to their pages where they can earn revenue through adverts. This promotes the use of sensationalistic headlines to get people to click. This leads to promoting the propagation of material that may be erroneous in nature.

With this widespread propagation throughout multiple sites it means that if there is misreporting on a subject then it becomes very hard for a person to identify that errors have been made, or worse they see the widespread reporting as reinforced proof of its accuracy.

References:

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Technology – opportunity or oppression in domestic violence?

Selwyn Manning — Thu, 16 Jul 2015 03:55:06 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com Contributed by Women’s Refuge This year the Women’s Refuge annual appeal highlights the increasing role technology is playing in fueling domestic violence.

Women’s Refuge Street Posters – click to view full-sized image

“Domestic violence isn’t always about physical violence,” says Chief Executive Dr Ang Jury. “Everyday technology, such as mobile devices and social media platforms are increasingly being used as tools to monitor manipulate shame and control women easily and at a distance.” Refuge advocates come across daily examples of how text messaging and other use of technology is being used in what is becoming known as ‘cyber abuse’. Technology is available to track a woman’s movements and monitor her phone and computer use. Identity theft is another issue women face in violent relationships, especially as they attempt to leave. Women’s Refuge is supporting women who use their services to learn about how to deal with some of the risks technology can have on their safety. Bold posters that display women holding cell phones with messages like “one of the most common tools for abuse is in your pocket,” or, “abuse – now available for download,” are being shown in bus shelters and magazine advertisements this month. However Dr Jury says women should not be dissuaded from asking for help. “There are ways to mask your on-line activity and you can also use a library PC or a friend’s cell or iPad to seek information about personal safety or call our 0800 REFUGE line 24/7. Women’s Refuge statistics:

Women’s Refuge is New Zealand’s most significant family violence organization with a 40-year history of providing comprehensive services for women and children.
In 2012-13, our refuges provided 76,000 safe beds for women and children who did not feel safe to sleep in their own homes – this was an average of 209 women and children each night.
The average length of stay in a safe house in 2012-13 was 24 days for a woman and 29 days for a child. This is an increase from the previous year which was 20 and 26 days respectively.
On average, of the women who seek our help, 64% report psychological abuse; 49% report physical abuse; 23% report financial abuse; 21% report harassment and stalking; 12% report spiritual abuse; 12% report sexual abuse and 11% report that weapons were used. 24% of women reported that children witnessed or heard the abuse. (note most women experience multiple forms of abuse so these figures will not add up to 100%)
56% of Women’s Refuge clients are under 36 years of age.
35% of children are under the age of five and 86% of the children we deal with are under the age of 10.
Women’s Refuge receives an average of 82,000 calls to its Crisis/Support lines every year. This means we answer a crisis or information call every nine minutes of every day.
In 2013 we had 821 staff with 477 unpaid or volunteer staff. Half of our workers – paid or unpaid – identify as Māori.
Women’s Refuge responded to 1,500 Police Safety Orders in 2013 which is a huge increase on the previous year which had 880 PSO responses. We are not paid for this work.
Police refer more than 27,000 Family Violence Interagency Response referrals to Women’s Refuge each year. We are paid for only 2200 of these referrals.20,000 women and children needed the help of Women’s Refuge in 2013.

According to the Women’s Refuge Annual report 2014,the Ministry of Social Development provided funding of $7.909 million for the 2013-14 year. Total expenses incurred by the organisation was $8.729 million. Thus Women’s Refuge need to find other sources of income to meet their needs. To donate to Women’s Refuge visit www.womensrefuge.org.nz –]]>

A Century of Censuses: Dwellings and Households

Selwyn Manning — Wed, 15 Jul 2015 03:55:06 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com This week Statistics New Zealand released a set of information it has titled: A century of censuses: Long-term trends from the Census of Population and Dwellings to 2013. This shows that at the most recent census in 2013, there were on average 2.7 people in each occupied dwelling – nearly half the number from 1886, when 5.2 people was the average. The analysis also shows that the number of dwellings has increased by around seven times in the past hundred years – from 238,066 to over 1.5 million – while in the same period, the general population has approximately quadrupled. Statistics NZ researcher Rosemary Goodyear says there are several reasons why fewer people are living under the same roof. “Households have changed. Our families are smaller, and – partly because of our ageing population – there are more couple-only and one-person households.” In 2013, New Zealand also had its lowest home ownership rate since the 1950s. The rate peaked in the 1986 and 1991 Censuses.

Changing familes. The photo at left is of the Sanft family 1911 (Sir George Grey Special Collections, Auckland Libraries, 31-68953) and the diverse family photo at right is sourced from teara.govt.nz

A CENTURY OF CENSUSES – DWELLINGS AND HOUSEHOLDS (extracted from Stats.govt.nz ) Occupied private dwellings, 1916–2013

Although the number of dwellings in New Zealand has been collected since the first New Zealand census in 1858, we only have information about occupied private dwellings since 1916.
In 1916, there were 238,066 occupied private dwellings in New Zealand and 5,011 occupied non-private dwellings.
By 2013, the census recorded over 1.5 million occupied private dwellings – almost seven times the number in 1916.

Number of people per dwelling, 1867–2013

The average number of people per occupied private dwelling or household has fallen from a peak of 5.2 in 1886, to 2.7 in 2013.
Over time the average number of people per dwelling has fallen, due largely to smaller families, and people living longer – resulting in more couple-only and one-person households. The average number peaked in the 1880s, at just over 5.2.
In 2013, the average number of people per household was 2.7 per dwelling, which has remained largely unchanged since 2001.
Until the 2006 census, figures are for occupied private dwellings, and from 2006 onwards figures are for all people living in households (which excludes the small number of private dwellings where all occupants were visitors).

Types of joined private dwellings, 1926 Census

In 1926, more than 9 in 10 dwellings were separate houses.
The 1926 Census was the first census that collected detailed information about dwelling structures, including whether a dwelling was separate or joined to another dwelling.
Of the permanent private dwellings in 1926, over 9 in 10 were structurally separate. Of the 8.4 percent that were joined, there were a range of categories.
Dwellings attached to post offices and police stations were separated from dwellings attached to shops or businesses. This reflects the higher number of post offices and police stations around New Zealand at that time, as these made up 0.4 percent of all permanent private dwellings (1,166 dwellings).
There are some issues when considering this data over time. Because of changes to dwelling classifications, there are inconsistencies between years, particularly around the classification of flats. We think that may have led to an over-representation of separate (stand-alone) dwellings, particularly in 2013

Types of occupied private dwellings, 1926 and 2013 Censuses

The proportion of stand-alone houses in New Zealand has fallen since 1926.
In 1926, 4.5 percent of all dwellings were temporary dwellings. This category included outstation huts, whares, work camps, tents, and temporary adaptations of other buildings. After 1926, census schedules did not specify what was included in temporary dwelling types.
In 2013, we included some of the types of dwellings that had previously been identified in separate categories – such as baches, and dwellings joined to a business or shop – in the ‘not further defined’ category.

Unoccupied dwellings, 1891–2013

2013 had the highest rate of unoccupied dwellings in over a century.
The high rate of unoccupied dwellings in 2013 was largely driven by the increase in unoccupied dwellings in Canterbury. The increase in Canterbury was likely to be a result of the damage to houses caused by the 2010/11 earthquakes. Some of the unoccupied houses would have been uninhabitable, while others may have been vacated for repair.
In 2013, 10.6 percent of dwellings were unoccupied nationally, compared with 9.7 at the previous census and 6.6 percent in 1911.
In census statistics, a dwelling is defined as unoccupied if it is unoccupied at all times during the 12 hours following midnight on the night of the data collection, and suitable for habitation.

Main materials of outer walls of dwelling, 1861–1981

Wood was the most common material used for the outer walls of New Zealand houses in the 19th and 20th centuries.
The census collected information about the material used to construct outer walls of dwellings for 120 years, from 1861 to 1981.
In 1861 the census recorded 22,398 occupied dwellings, including over 6,000 made from canvas or other materials.
There were more dwellings made from raupō or bullrush (630) than from stone or brick (477).
Wood was the most common material for the outer walls in 1861 and in subsequent years. Around 9 out of 10 dwellings in New Zealand were made from wood throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries.
The proportion of wooden dwellings fell in the mid-20th century as more dwellings were constructed from ‘permanent’ materials such as brick and concrete. By 1981, just under half (49.1 percent) of permanent private dwellings were clad in wood. Although we do not have census data for subsequent years, the 2010 Building Research Institute of New Zealand (BRANZ) housing condition survey showed that less than half (47.0 percent) of dwellings were clad in wood.
Over time, the proportion of dwellings clad in brick, stone, or concrete has grown. In 1911, 4.3 percent of walls in dwellings were made from brick, stone, or concrete. This rose to 32.5 percent in 1981.
Wallboards of asbestos were also a popular building material in the mid-20th century. In 1961, 9.1 percent of dwellings had asbestos cladding.

Home ownership, 1916–2013

The Census of Population and Dwellings first collected information on home ownership and renting in 1916, during World War I.
Home ownership rose during the 1920s but fell after the Great Depression. It rose fairly steadily during the 1950s, and peaked in 1986 and 1991, at 73.5 percent (as a percentage of private dwellings). If we just consider households, then the peak was 73.8 percent of households owning their dwelling in 1991.
By 2013, home ownership had fallen to 64.8 percent of households – the lowest rate since 1951 (when 61.5 percent of private dwellings were owned).
The questions around home ownership, and categories for collection, have changed slightly over the years. For example, from 1926 to 1971 we asked about the type of mortgage (flat or table mortgage or under-time payment).
Defining home ownership became more complicated after family trusts became more popular in New Zealand. Data from 2006 onwards includes information about whether a dwelling is held in a family trust. For the purposes of this time series, households where the dwelling is held in a family trust have been included under the ownership category.
From 2001, census also included a question about individual home ownership (tenure holder).

Number of households who rented their home, 1916–2013

Renting has increased in recent years, with just under one-third of households renting in 2013, compared with just over one-quarter in 1991. In 1916, the first time we collected this data, almost half of all private dwellings (46.8 percent) were rented.
In 2013, 453,135 households (31.2 percent) rented the dwelling they lived in. A further 53,889 households did not own their dwelling but paid no rent.
We do not have information about the rental status of a further 5,088 households.

(This extract was compiled by the production team of Shereel Patel and Rupeni Vatubuli). –]]>

A Century of Censuses: Population

Selwyn Manning — Tue, 14 Jul 2015 23:55:04 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com This week Statistics New Zealand released a set of information it has titled: A century of censuses: Long-term trends from the Census of Population and Dwellings to 2013.

In their announcement of the release, Statistics NZ researcher Rosemary Goodyear said a century of censuses shows how New Zealand’s population has increasingly shifted towards the North Island. “(Another of the) marked changes in the past century has been the change in the size of the Māori population, which has increased by over 1,000 percent – from approximately 50,000 in 1911, to nearly 600,000 in 2013,” said Dr Goodyear.

A century of censuses: Long-term trends from the Census of Population and Dwellings to 2013 brings together a range of indicators from censuses over the years. Because some variables are not available for all census years, Statistics New Zealand have included the longest time period possible.

For some counts, they have been able to include information from as far back as the 1800s. However, some variables are only available for certain years – for example ‘address five years ago’ was only added in 1971.

In the lead-up to the 2018 Census, Statistics New Zealand will add sections on topics such as work and education, and health.

Changing familes. The photo at left is of the Sanft family 1911 (Sir George Grey Special Collections, Auckland Libraries, 31-68953) and the diverse family photo at right is sourced from teara.govt.nz

A CENTURY OF CENSUSES – POPULATION (extracted from Stats.govt.nz )

Here is a compilation of the key sections of A century of censuses: Long-term trends from the Census of Population and Dwellings to 2013 for Population. Census night and usually resident population, 1911–2013

In 1981 we changed the way we provided information about the population. Until 1981, most information was for the number of people in New Zealand on census day, including overseas visitors.
From 1981 onwards, most information we provide is about the usually resident population, which excludes overseas visitors. We continued to count both the total people here on census day, and the usually resident populations.

Māori census night and usually resident populations, 1911–2013 .

In 1911, Māori made up 5 percent of the total census night population. In 2013, Māori made up 14.1 percent of the population.There were 52,722 Māori counted in 1911 – 49,844 in the ‘native’ census and 2,877 in the general census.
In 2013, the census counted 598,602 Māori.
The total New Zealand population has increased by around 300 percent between 1911 and 2013, while the Māori population has increased by over 1,000 percent.
Note there have been substantial changes in the way that the Māori population has been counted over the years. Prior to 1945, some Māori, (such as Māori wives of Europeans) were included in the general population, but most were enumerated separately. A separate Māori census was carried out until 1945. However, South Island Māori were counted with the European population from 1916 to 1945.
Because of definitional changes around ethnicity and the undercount of the Māori population, any time series for Māori can be regarded as approximate only.

Distribution of the population, 1858–2013

The population has increasingly shifted towards the North Island.Until 1926, Māori were enumerated separately and were usually not included in the overall population count. In 1858, over half of the population (excluding Māori) lived in the North Island, but the gold rushes of the 1860s led to a rapid increase in the population of the South Island.
At the peak of the gold rushes, almost two-thirds (63.4 percent) of the settler population in New Zealand lived in the South Island.
By the beginning of the 20th century, the balance had shifted in favour of the North Island, and since then the North Island has increased in population at a greater rate than the South Island. Data from 1926 onwards includes Māori.Note that until 1981, population data is for census night populations, and from 1981 onwards data is for census night and usually resident populations.

Change in North and South island populations, 1901–2013

The North Island grew at a much faster rate than the South in the 20th and 21st centuries.Particularly in the late 1970s and early 1990s, the South Island population experienced low rates of growth.
In fact, between 1976 and 1981 the census night population of the South Island actually fell by almost 1 percent.

Population density, 1874–2013

Over the past century, the population density of the North Island has increased more quickly than that of the South.
Overall population density in New Zealand increased from 1.1 people per km2 (excluding Māori) in 1874, to 2.6 people per km2 in 1901, 5.2 in 1926, and 15.8 in 2013.

Population density of most densely populated districts, 1926–2013

Central Auckland has the greatest population density in New Zealand.Central Auckland has also had the greatest increase in people per square kilometre since 1926, going from 42.4 people per square kilometre, to 255.2 people per square kilometre in 2013.
Over time, New Zealand has had many different geographical classifications, which makes it difficult to compare population change at a regional level.

Age group distribution, 1911–2013

The proportion of children in the population has fallen since 1911, while the proportion of older people has increased.In 1911, around half of the population was aged under 25, with almost one-third of the population children (ie aged under 15 years). Just under 5 percent of the population were aged 65 years and over.
The proportion of children fell in the mid-1920s and the Depression years, then rebounded again in the post-war baby boom.
In contrast, by 2013 children made up just 1 in 5 of the population, while people aged 65 years and over made up around 1 in 7 of the population – roughly three times the 1911 proportion (around 1 in 21 people).

People born overseas, 1881–2013

In 2013, around one-quarter of New Zealand’s population was born overseas. This was about the same proportion as in 1921. We can trace the increasing diversity of the New Zealand population through place of birth.
However, it is difficult to generate a completely consistent time series for birthplace, as some countries have changed in name (or political existence) over time. So the most straightforward time series is whether the population was born in New Zealand or overseas.
In 1911, around 7 out of 10 people in New Zealand were New Zealand-born, up from around half of the population 30 years earlier. The proportion increased steadily during the 20th century, reaching a high of 86.3 percent in 1951 (census night population).
From 1981, most census statistics are presented for the usually resident population, rather than the total or census night population. By the 1990s, the proportion of the usually resident population who were New Zealand–born started to fall.
In 2013, 74.8 percent of New Zealanders who stated a birthplace said they were born in New Zealand.

Migration, 1971–2013

Migration within New Zealand and from overseas increased in the 2000s, but slowed in 2013. Migration rates are based on a question first asked in the 1971 Census that asks ‘where did you live five years ago?’
Through this question we can see how the mobility of New Zealanders has changed over time.In 1971, the population was less mobile, with just over one-third of people (35 percent) having moved from the address they were at five years before the census. Migration increased in the 1990s, and peaked in 2006, when 54.7 percent of New Zealanders had changed their residence since the last census.
In 2013, around half of New Zealanders had either moved from overseas or changed address within New Zealand since March 2008 (total migration rate) and 46.3 percent had changed address within New Zealand (internal migration rate). Note that children not born five years ago are excluded, as are people who have left New Zealand.

Number of children born, 1916–2013

The proportion of women having four or more children has fallen since the 1970s and 1980s.The proportion of women aged 15 and over who had no children has remained relatively constant since 1981, at just over 30 percent.
The proportion of women with only one child has also remained fairly similar, while the proportion of women with four or more has fallen from 19.2 percent to 12.7 percent since 1981.
In 1981, the average number of children ever born alive to women aged 15 years and over was two. This number fell to 1.9 in 1996, and 1.8 in 2006 and 2013.The 1916, 1971, and 1976 censuses collected information on the number of children born alive – but only from women who had ever been in a legally registered relationship (ie women who were married, divorced, widowed, or separated). So we have created a time series to allow comparisons with these earlier years.
Note that this cannot be completely comparable as marriage rates have fallen in recent years. In 1981, for example, around three-quarters of adult women were or had been married, compared with less than two-thirds in 2013.In 1916, the average number of children born alive per married woman was 3.2, compared with 2.6 in the 1970s and 2.4 in 2013.
However, the number of ever-married women having children follows a similar pattern for all women, with a decrease in the proportion of women having four or more children.The number of ever-married women who had no children has fallen from around 1 in 6 ever-married women in 1971, to around 1 in 9 ever-married women in 2013.

(This extract was compiled by the production team of Shereel Patel and Rupeni Vatubuli). –]]>

Bryan Bruce: Taking a stand against child poverty

Selwyn Manning — Tue, 14 Jul 2015 01:55:04 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com – Contributed by Olexander Barnes It was a very cold and wet Friday night, one of those nights where you want to cancel all your plans to go out and spend your night in, hugging the heater, but despite the horrible weather Saint Andrews Church on the Terrace was packed to hear journalist and social activist Bryan Bruce speak about child poverty. The event, hosted by the Wellington Quakers, was titled “What We Know. What We Say. And What We Do”.

Bryan Bruce – Wikicommons

It started with an introduction by the Quaker organisers who discussed who the Quakers are, their early history of persecution during the English civil war and their values of equality. This was followed by a quick introduction of Bryan Bruce before he took the stand. He started his lecture talking about his parents and grandparents. Describing their lives of incredible hardship in a society that had no safety net to catch people who had fallen on hard times, which in that day and age were the poor. He told of his grandfather dying at home of cancer with only his daughter (Bryan’s mother) to care for him, and that his mother would be haunted by the screams of her father for many years after his death. Then he proceeded on to talk about his own birth in Scotland in 1948, right at the beginning of the National Health Service in the UK, a time of great change when free heath care began to transform the lives of those around him. How it meant that he was able to survive bouts of childhood disease that only a few years before would have been fatal. Though it was a period of change Bryan did stress that his early life was a still a very hard one and casually joked that when he was sent away to live with his aunt when his father migrated to New Zealand to become a baker, that if there had been an anti-smacking bill in force at that time, his aunt would be “serving 25 to life”. Then his life changed dramatically when in 1956 he and his mother boarded a ship to New Zealand to live with his father who now had stable employment. He described his early life in New Zealand as a tough one, but a fair one, one where the politicians of the day considered you to be like a neighbour and wanted to help. It was a time that a person could earn enough money from their weekly paycheck, that they could put some of it into savings and within 5 years they could have enough for a deposit on their own home, which was exactly what Bryan’s parents were able to do. The talk then moved away from personal history to the social and economic history of the past 40 years in New Zealand. Bryan focused on the transition of economic thought during the 1980’s. Keynesian economics had dominated Western economic thinking from the end of the Second World War and championed a collective society and the welfare state, but gave way to the current Neo-Liberalist economic thought which promotes individual enterprise and free-market policy.

David Lange and Rodger Douglas Credit: Evening Post/Merv Griffiths

It was during this transition of economic thought in New Zealand that was heralded by the arrival of the David Lange Labour government and Rogernomics in 1984 which Bryan Bruce believes was the start of a growing inequality within New Zealand and an increase in child poverty and the diseases that go with it. He also made the observation that this change in economic policy led to a change in social thinking, from a move collective way of thinking to a much more individualistic and ideological way of thinking. From this point the talk moved on to the current situation of child poverty in New Zealand – including reference to the many easily preventable diseases such as rheumatic fever which are making a return due to the low quality of housing for the poor, of which a disproportionate number are Maori and Pacific islanders. Brian leveled a great deal of criticism towards the current government during this point, for their lack of action and at times denial towards child poverty, something that he put down to their neo-liberal ideology preventing them from taking effective action against it. The talk ended with a brief question time where Bryan Bruce was asked about his views of the TPPA, which he considers to be a terrible agreement that will reduce New Zealand’s ability to create its own laws along with preventing cheaper versions of generic medicines from entering the market and benefiting the less well off. The other question that was asked was if it was possible to change the thinking of people who did not see child poverty as a problem, of which he confessed he did not have the answer. Though it was one of those instances of preaching to the converted, all in all the talk was very informative and it was refreshing to hear someone who was passionate on such a fundamental subject. Any public discussion is good discussion when it comes to social issues like poverty and inequality. –]]>

Parliament Watch: The Minister of Housing – Warrant of Fitness not warranted

Selwyn Manning — Thu, 09 Jul 2015 03:58:29 +0000

AGENCY STORY – STEPHEN OLSEN, PRESS GALLERY ASSOCIATE , PARLIAMENT WATCH [caption id="attachment_5275" align="alignleft" width="300"] Housing Minister, Nick Smith.[/caption]

It may not have been a bombshell announcement, but nevertheless if you’re going to release the rationale for not implementing a broad ‘Warrant of Fitness’ for housing that had gathered cross-party Opposition support, then picking a recess week does have a certain quiet zone effect to play to your advantage.

And that’s what Nick Smith, Minister for Building and Housing, did today in what was probably a welcome relief from being on the ropes on housing issues week after week.

This was on the face of it a simple and straightforward announcement. Yes to more insulation. Yes to smoke alarms. No to warrants.

And as an added compote, signal some sweeteners for tenants – a longer protected period to take landlords to task – and for landlords – a shorter period to swoop on properties abandoned by tenants. Both in different ways presented as being about being going after “bad apples”.

Mr Smith didn’t falter in this order of play and had some obvious winners to speak to. The three lives to be saved by enforcing standards for smoke alarms is entirely compelling, but as noted that’s the norm across in Australia which makes it a case of having to ask: Why do we take so long to do these things?

The WoF was dismissed primarily, or initially at least, because its framing had thrown up what the Minister called “pedantic requirements”, using window stays and stairway rails as two “over the top” whipping boys. Just not “pragmatic”. Just no “good evidence”. Just “passing on more cost to the landlord”. Not to mention, Mr Smith mentioned, an annual inspection element for warrants that would tot up to $225 per property per year .

Where there was some unravelling was the third of houses where insulation would be impractical and therefore open to exemptions, and where the passing on of costs from landlords to low-income tenants would clearly – with the Minister’s explicit acknowledgement – chew a figure like $3.20 a week off the benefit rise of $25 on the horizon for April next year.

Even before the typically swift, and narrow, flurry of media release responses had landed in media inboxes, it was apparent that on this occasion the Minister, Cabinet and officials had sewn up the framing of changes very tightly.

For insulation to be impractical for a third of houses added some diverting confusion and allowed Mr Smith to use a fond analogy that just as New Zealand’s housing stock – moving attention to owner-occupied houses – is known to exhibit woeful design weaknesses for retaining heat, this made the state of play similar to the woeful mix of inefficient and efficient cars that make up our collective automotive fleet.

For an issue that isn’t going away what’s changed today is that clearer lines have been drawn. A timetable is in place now that to a certain extent creates some breathing space on at least one aspect of the behemoth sized housing front. A tidy-up law will be introduced, and some ‘white charger’ regulations fed through the select committee process. And then it will be Christmas. And summer again.

What has to be learnt from today’s announcement is that all of these decision processes warrant the closest possible scrutiny and examination.

As the Greens quickly identified the job of warming up New Zealand had only really just begun.

It’s good that renters are getting to join some form of queue for insulation, but the question has to be what will truly encourage landlords represented by the likes of the New Zealand Property Investors Federation to implement the proposed changes, and not do so in ways that are so piecemeal and erratic and under-policed that the policy has to be retrofitted over and over again.

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Children in Gaza’s hardest-hit areas showing signs of emotional distress a year on from war

Selwyn Manning — Sun, 05 Jul 2015 21:55:42 +0000

NewsroomPlus.com – Contributed by Save The Children Children living in areas of Gaza hardest-hit during last year’s conflict are still showing signs of severe emotional distress, including high levels of bed wetting and nightmares. A new assessment by Save the Children found that:

An average of 75% of children surveyed experience unusual bedwetting regularly.
In one area, al-Shoka, nearly half the children interviewed wet the bed every night.
Up to 89% of parents reported that their children suffer consistent feelings of fear, while more than 70% of children said they worried about another war.
On average seven out of 10 children interviewed suffer regular nightmares.

During last year’s 51-day war, 551 children in Gaza were killed and 3,436 were injured, while an estimated 1,500 lost their parents. Many more were made homeless and saw their schools damaged or destroyed. In Israel, one child was also killed by rocket fire and 270 were injured. David Hassell, Co-Country Director, Save the Children, says: “The results of this survey are extremely alarming for those of us who work with children in Gaza. “They have lived through events that would give even the most hardened adult nightmares. The continued blockade and threat of renewed conflict makes it very difficult for children to recover from the trauma they have experienced.” A year on from the conflict, around 100,000 people are still homeless, while major reconstruction of health facilities, water networks and schools has yet to begin. Save the Children New Zealand Chief Executive Heather Hayden says: “Many children in Gaza have now lived through three wars in the past seven years, the last one notable for its brutality. They are emotionally and, in some cases, physically shattered. “The world cannot sit by and watch while these children’s hopes for a better future are crushed by the blockade and the looming threat of another conflict. Political leaders on all sides should stop posturing and start acting – they need to work together to agree to a plan for a lasting peace deal that includes ending the blockade on Gaza.” Save the Children believes the international community has a critical role to play in ensuring the welfare of children in Gaza. All children deserve homes, schools and opportunities – currently we are collectively denying these rights by our inaction. Save the Children is calling on the international community to respond to the ongoing war on children by exerting all its diplomatic influence to bring an immediate end to the bloodshed and to get the warring parties to agree to long-term measures that will stop this senseless cycle of violence, including an end to the blockade. –]]>

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