COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

What we are witnessing is not just the end of a regime but quite possibly the destruction of the Syrian state.

We are being told by the Western media that we should join Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden and the Europeans in celebrating what risks being the creation of yet another failed state in the Middle East/West Asia.

I shed no tears for Assad — nor would I if any of the US’s preferred family dictatorships in the region fell. I’m happy for the prisoners who have been freed; could we also free those in Guantanamo Bay, Israel and all the US torture/black sites in places like Jordan, Thailand, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Kosovo?

When I see that most of the destruction to the country has occurred after Assad has left and that Israel is in the lead in destroying the military and administrative foundations of a viable state, there seems little to give me hope that Syria will be united, sovereign and free any time soon.

Political scientists say that “state monopoly on violence” — the concept that the state alone has the right to use or authorise the use of force (and has the means to ensure compliance within its territory) — is a sine qua non of a viable state.

Assad has fled, the armed forces have vanished yet the Israelis, in particular, by their massive ongoing air strikes on the country’s navy, air force, military installations and arms depots, are ensuring the incoming government will struggle to defend itself against aggressors foreign or domestic.

Permanent dismemberment could easily follow, with Israel already over-running the UN buffer zone and taking territory in the south, and the US and its Kurdish allies holding a huge swathe of the northeast.

The extent of Turkish ambitions is unclear and whether the Russians hold on to their bases in Tartus and at Khmeimim is unresolved. The fate of the two million Alawites and other minorities is also unsure. The country is awash in arms and factions.

People liberating themselves from a dictator is admirable; state destruction, in contrast, is a grave crime against humanity because it robs millions of people of the ability to meet even the most basic needs of existence.

Israeli tanks invade Syria.     Video: Kanal 13

Look at Libya.  In 2011, the US-NATO bombing campaign turned the tide against the Gaddafi regime. US drones spotted Gaddafi’s motorcade fleeing Sirte and signalled to French jets to strike the convoy.  Locals finished the job.

As Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, said with a chuckle during a TV interview hours afterwards:  “We came. We saw. He died.”  A sick variant of “Veni, vidi, vici” (I came, I saw, I conquered), Julius Caesar’s cocky phrase for one of his swift victories.

There was nothing swift for the Libyans, however, other than their fall from being one of Africa’s wealthiest societies with excellent health, education, housing and infrastructure to being a zone of endless civil war, criminality, desperate poverty and insecurity from 2011 to the present day.

And here we are, yet again, the amnesiac West celebrating another lightning quick victory — like the fall of Kabul, the fall of Tripoli and the fall of Baghdad. Mission Accomplished.

Talking of Julius Caesar and cocky imperialism, the US named their highly-successful, crushing economic, energy and food sanctions against Syria “The Caesar Sanctions”.  Imposed and maintained since 2019, they helped hollow out the Syrian economy, making it easy meat for hyenas, such as the Israelis, to work on the carcass.

A couple of years ago I listened to Dana Stroul, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East talking to an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Perhaps because she was in a friendly place Stroul was remarkably candid, boasting that the US “owned” a third of Syria — which they do to this day.

During the “civil war” America seized the wheat and oil fields in Northern Syria and are unlikely to give them back anytime soon. This, perhaps more than any single factor, is the root cause of the collapse of the Assad regime.

Most people in the West don’t even know that the US holds this chokehold on the country. It uses a Texas oil company to pump Syria’s oil out of the ground, sell it on the international market and use the proceeds to pay their Kurdish fighters.

By seizing the breadbasket of Syria and its oil, the US gained what Stroul described as “compelling leverage to shape an outcome that was more conducive to US interests”.

“But it wasn’t just about the one-third of Syrian territory that the US and our military owned,” Stroul said. The US was isolating the Assad regime, preventing embassies from returning to Damascus and blocking reconstruction.

The US used some of the looted oil money for civil projects in northern Syria but Stroul boasted: “The rest of Syria is rubble. What the Russians want and what Assad wants is economic reconstruction — and that is something that the United States can basically hold a card on via the international financial institutions and our cooperation with the Europeans.”

That’s called saying the quiet part out loud: the US and the EU prevented measures to improve the lives of millions of Syrians and ensured millions of refugees could not return home, all in order to weaken the regime and ensure popular discontent remained high. Nice.

There are more than 10 million Syrian refugees — most are hated “Others” in Europe and Turkey.  The war, with so much blood on Assad’s hands, was in part fuelled and funded by the US and the EU to weaken a geostrategic adversary.

It created the largest refugee and displacement crisis of our time, affecting millions of people and spilling into surrounding countries.  More than 15 million Syrians needed emergency assistance in 2023, more than 90 percent live below the poverty line and some 12 million suffer food insecurity, but the US has the chutzpah to view Syria as a geostrategic success story because it robbed the country of any chance at reconstruction over the last several years.

Interrupted …:)

Syria’s rebirth hinges on inclusivity, democracy, and sovereignty: Marwa… https://t.co/8QJrCbubFl via @YouTube

— Marwan (@marwanbishara) December 12, 2024

For the moment the Western media is promoting Abu Mohammad al-Jalani, the leader of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose forces took Damascus last weekend, as a kind of Woke Al Qaeda leader who has embraced Western values.  More cynical commentators like Pepe Escobar refer to him as “an Al-Qaeda head-chopper with a freshly-trimmed beard and a Zelensky suit”.

I have no opinion either way; time will tell.

I’m perplexed, however, that within hours of his Turkish-trained, Qatari-funded, Western armed troops crossing out of Idlib province, al-Jalani was on CNN; it smacked of a K Street/Washington PR exercise. Clearly al-Jalani is astute enough to know that being friends with America is a sensible survival strategy for the time being.

He may even have had his own Road to Damascus moment. Let’s hope.

Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham is still designated a terror group by both the UN Security Council and the US, the latter posted a $10 million bounty on al-Jalani’s head some years ago.  But that didn’t stop the US keeping close contact with him via diplomats like James Jeffrey, Special Envoy to Syria from 2018-2020, who described HTS as a US “asset”.

From the Obama administration onwards, the US poured arms and dollars into al-Qaeda and other Islamist groups, via secret multi-billion dollar programmes like Operation Timber Sycamore. The jihadists were the most effective fighters undermining the Assad regime.  Back in 2012 Jake Sullivan wrote to his boss Hilary Clinton to famously clarify that “AQ [al-Qaeda)] is on our side in Syria.” Thanks, again, Wikileaks.

President Biden, like Netanyahu, says that his country played a vital role in bringing down the Assad regime.  Fair enough: then apply the Pottery Barn Rule: If you break it, you own it — and you should fix it.

Several hundred billion dollars in reparations, and the return of the oil and wheat fields would be a start. In reality, I think peace will only come to the region once the Americans and Europeans are driven out.

I hope Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham lives up to its promise to respect other ethnic and religious groups. I hope Israel withdraws. I hope for lots of good things for Syria but I’m not optimistic, despite being told daily by BBC, The Guardian, The New York Times and others that something wonderful has just happened.

Balkanisation — the fragmenting of the country into hostile statelets —  is the great risk for Syria. Let’s hope for something better for the Syrian people — that they are allowed to form a state that is united, sovereign and free.

Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz and contributes to Café Pacific.

This article was first published on Café Pacific.

Journalists who report on environmental issues are encountering growing difficulties in many parts of the world, reports Reporters Without Borders.

According to the tally kept by RSF, 200 journalists have been subjected to threats and physical violence, including murder, in the past 10 years because they were working on stories linked to the environment.

Twenty four were murdered in Latin America and Asia — including the Pacific, which makes these two regions the most dangerous ones for environmental reporters.

From restrictions on access to information and gag suits to physical attacks, the work of environmental journalists and their safety are increasingly threatened.

RSF has denounced the obstacles to the right to information about ecological and climate issues and calls on all countries to recognise the vital nature of the work of environmental journalists, and to guarantee their safety.

Nearly half of the journalists killed in India in the past 10 years — 13 of 28 — were working on environmental stories that often also involved corruption and organised crime, especially the so-called “sand mafia,” which illegally excavates millions of tons of this precious resource for the construction industry.

Amazon deforestation
Journalists covering the challenges of deforestation in the Amazon are also constantly subjected to threats and harassment that prevent them from working freely.

The scale of the problem was highlighted in 2022 by the murder of Dom Phillips, a British reporter specialised in environmental issues.

“Regarding the environmental and climate challenges we face, the freedom to cover these issues is essential,” said RSF’s editorial director Anne Bocandé.

“RSF’s staff battles tirelessly to prevent economic and political interests from obstructing the right to information. Your generosity makes this fight possible.”

Pacific Media Watch collaborates with Reporters Without Borders.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

As Fiji lurches towards stability and democracy, the military’s overwhelming presence is a reminder of what once was, and could happen again, as the Pacific Media Centre’s Sri Krishnamurthi talks to an academic who does not discount the possibility.

Fiji’s military has the backing of the elected government at the moment, but a clause reinserted from the 1990 Constitution making it “judge and jury” is cause for concern, argues Professor Vijay Naidu of the University of the South Pacific.

“There is a provision in the 2013 Constitution akin to the 1990 Constitution, which gives the military a blank cheque to interfere in the political process,’’ says the School of Governance and Development Studies academic.

He has witnessed the positives and negatives as Fiji heads towards its second election since the fourth coup in 2006.

FIJI PRE-ELECTION 2018 SPECIAL REPORTS

While there are pros and cons that have developed, one red light Professor Naidu can see in the distance is the military, whose role was sanctioned by the 2013 Constitution.

A clause from the 1990 Constitution is causing concern because of its ambiguity.

Professor Vijay Naidu … the 2013 military constitutional intervention clause is a worry, but not everything has been gloom and doom. Image: Sri Krishnamurthi/PMC/Wansolwara News

“The 1990 Constitution had a clause that says the security and well-being of the people of the country is in the hands of the Fiji Military Force and that has been reinserted in the 2013 Constitution,” Professor Naidu said.

-Partners-

“Giving that kind of responsibility to the military means that any time the military is not happy with the policies followed by the government, they can intervene under the guise of acting on behalf of the security and well-being of all citizens of the country.”

Common name
However, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom under Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama, Professor Naidu says.

“At the level of the economy, things have stabilised and there has been a pattern of growth over the last four years. We now have a common name (Fijian) for all Fiji citizens and, making Fiji citizenship available to our people who have gone abroad – nearly 200,000 since 1987. Those are good initiatives in my view,” he said.

There is still a long way to go in other aspects.

“In the area of human rights, we have a long way to go and there are issues around the nature of the 2013 Constitution: how more than 400 decrees that were promulgated between late 2006 to 2013 continue to be valid under the Constitution is a mystery.”

Taking in a bilingual stance and commonalty for all was another positive of the Bainimarama government, but it remains to be seen whether it will work or not.

“On one hand, we have a common name. There has been an attempt to introduce conversational “Bauan” Fijian and Fiji Hindi among primary schools but there have not been any reports indicating how that has gone,” Professor Naidu said.

“Prior to that, the governments have talked about it as a major hurdle – there are not enough language teachers so whether or not we suddenly address that is not something that is in the public domain.

Building bridges
“Also, there are attempts at building bridges between the different ethnic groups and the Government tries to push this at a national level – this idea of common citizenship, non-discrimination, social cohesion etc.”

Nonetheless, he feels that the government is going to be perceived as arrogant by its actions.

“The government had such a big majority (in the last election) it has not taken heed of the opposition, and the opposition does represent a significant proportion of Fiji’s citizens,” Professor Naidu said.

“We have not had any local government elections since late 2006 and this has serious implications for the democratisation of the country.

The lack of media freedom issue is seen as a negative also.

“There is strict media control and the media is dead scared with fines and prison sentences in store for editors and publishers. There are serious issues about freedom of expression,” the professor summed up.

Sri Krishnamurthi is a journalist and Postgraduate Diploma in Communication Studies student at Auckland University of Technology. He is attached to the University of the South Pacific’s Journalism Programme, filing for USP’s Wansolwara News and the AUT Pacific Media Centre’s Asia Pacific Report.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

SPECIAL REPORT: Shirley Mauludu in Port Moresby reports on the earthquake which hit parts of three Highlands provinces almost two weeks ago, leaving behind a trail of destruction, injuries, loss of lives and massive damage to infrastructure. She talks to economist and Institute of National Affairs executive director Paul Barker about the challenges of recovery.

At this stage, the outcome is still uncertain after the devastation and loss of life – now more than 100 – of Papua New Guinea’s Highlands earthquake.

Obviously the biggest concern remains the human impact of the earthquake – reaching the victims and providing emergency relief.

Many households and communities have no drinking water and food gardens have been destroyed.

There must be thorough mapping of the affected areas to ensure that no affected communities remain isolated or without support or relief where in need.

Also, all the landslides need to be checked, not only where they block roads, or have destroyed food gardens or houses, but also where they’ve blocked streams and rivers.

This could result in future floods or surge damage downstream when the dam is breached in future.

Economically, the earthquake has damaged food crops and cash crops, and local trade – the disruption to access roads, highways and bridges, and damage to stores and other businesses and infrastructure, including telecommunications towers, power plants and power lines.

Costing tens of millions of kina
Repairs will costs tens of millions of kina, with the government unfortunately only budgeting each year a fraction of what’s needed for infrastructure maintenance, let alone for emergency repairs and restoration.

From past experience, such as after Cyclone Guba in 2007, repairs of core bridges and infrastructure can take many years, although the presence of major resource companies, partially needing some of that infrastructure, and with their organisational and plant capacity, it can be expected that at least some of that infrastructure will be restored more promptly.

Although most of the businesses and households would have been uninsured against earthquake damage, the restoration process will generate some valuable local economic activity for the disaster-affected communities, in terms of jobs and business activity in the building and construction industry.

In terms of the larger economic impact, the major 7.5/6 earthquake of February 26 and the series of ensuing aftershocks and associated quakes, have halted or impacted several of the country’s largest businesses, notably in the extractive industries.

For example, Kutubu oil production (and associated fields), PNG LNG gas production, Ok Tedi Mine in Western and Porgera mine – notably its power generation and reticulation from Hides.

It is too early to say how major the impact is or how long the delay will be to production and exports from each of these major resource projects.

The respective operating companies are still in the process of their assessments of the core resources, wells and accessible reserves, surface and underground mine sites etc, processing/conditioning plants, power plants, pipelines, as well as transport and communications.

Epicentre near the Hela border
Clearly, the greatest damage was experienced nearest the epicentre to the main quake – near the Hela/Western Province border, including the major Komo airfield.

Extensive damage to staff quarters and other company facilities was sustained.

But that can be restored fairly promptly, compared with damage to costly and fundamental plant that may have been sustained.

One would expect some projects to be able to resume production and exports relatively soon, and some may have barely interrupted operations, for example with Porgera using a partial back-up power supply.

Although damage has been sustained by Ok Tedi and Porgera, they are likely to be able to resume full operations more readily after repairs.

The oil, but particularly LNG and condensate plants, and wells etc, may well require more extensive and costly repairs, potentially keeping some of these operations out of production for significantly longer.

ExxonMobil has declared force-majeure, enabling them to avoid their contractual supply contracts as a result of forces beyond their control.

Exports will halt
A few LNG initial shipments can presumably proceed from LNG stored in tanks in the facility near Port Moresby. But beyond a week or so, production and exports would presumably halt.

Papua New Guinea had about K25 billion worth of overall exports in 2016, of which around K20 billion was from minerals, oil and gas.

If K11 billion was oil and gas, and production was halted for say two months, that would comprise a loss of near K2 billion of exports.

If a major portion of mineral production was halted by one month, that could be up to another K0.5 billion of exports lost, or rather deferred.

Oil, gas and most mineral prices are largely significantly above the levels in 2016. So in 2018, the loss of exports earnings would be higher than the figures stated here.

The LNG is not currently contributing to foreign exchange receipts but the mineral and oil exports largely are. So it would significantly reduce needed forex receipts.

Although company tax revenue was well below K100 million from the mining/oil/gas sector in 2017, it was expected that this figure would have been up (to K89.5 million, still a very low figure, considering the level of exports), particularly coming from Ok Tedi and Porgera.

Cut back in tax receipts
These tax receipts would be cut back if production was significantly halted, and the companies have to reinvest heavily in major repairs and new plant.

Dividends have been received, however, from the state’s equity in PNG LNG, and oil and mining operations, which would also take a cut, if production was heavily reduced, and major expenditure incurred, which seems inevitable at this stage, all adding to
the already very tight fiscal situation the government faces this year.

With major expenditure required by the government as its contribution to restoration of infrastructure and services in the affected areas (K450 million has been committed, although it is not known the basis of this number of the source of the allocation) then that clearly adds further to the fiscal pressure.

Shirley Mauludu is a journalist with The National daily newspaper. The article has been republished under Creative Commons.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz