People’s National Congress party leader Peter O’Neill has blown the race for the Papua New Guinea prime minister’s job wide open by declaring he will not run for the country’s top post.

As the national election winds down and lobbying intensifies among Pangu Pati, People’s National Congress (PNC), United Resources Party (URP), People’s Progress Party (PPP) and the National Alliance (NA), the one-time prime minister O’Neill said his party would support an alternative prime minister candidate.

The bombshell from O’Neill is likely to shake up the Pangu camp on Loloata Island which contains several aspiring PM-minded politicians.

O’Neill also appealed to the elected leaders to choose a prime minister who could heal the nation from the chaos that has plunged the country into election-related violence.

He wants to focus on Ialibu-Pangia and Southern Highlands and wants to give an opportunity to those who have been elected the right way to put their hands up.

“You will have my 100 percent support and I ask nothing special in return,” the former PM said yesterday.

O’Neill had gone to the election, vying to form government but the dismal performance of his PNC party may have forced his change of heart for the top job.

Not just about O’Neill or Marape
He said that the position of prime minister should not just be about O’Neill or Marape.

“Let me make it clear. I do not believe that I have a right to be the only alternative to Marape for the prime minister position.

“It was my greatest privilege to lead Papua New Guinea, but I recognise that we need to heal and move forward, and that the restoration may move faster when leaders listen to the will of the people,” he said.

“I encourage leaders who have been elected properly and who are genuinely interested in rescuing PNG from the economic and social chaos Marape has plunged the country into over the past three years, to consider putting their hand up for the top job.

“The role of prime minister should be filled by a person who has firstly been elected with integrity — who has been mandated by the people honestly.

“It is a critical junction for our young nation, and we urgently need a Papua New Guinean who has a vision for our country and who can pull the nation together and lead us forward.

He said there was a very worrying “fake government” which had fostered deep hatred under the Marape leadership that was tearing at the cohesion that had kept the country peaceful.

‘No celebrations’
“There are no celebrations around the country despite the apparently overwhelming election of Pangu candidates,” he said.

“Very strange, no one at all seems proud of their apparent chosen leaders, rather people are scared with no one to turn to with all avenues for justice closed off to the regular person.

“The national general election has magnified the level of violence, hatred, and unfairness in society and it is time for a leader to step forward who can bring peace and execute on clear policies.

“I am prepared to support alternative prime minister candidates as I and my party are prepared to do whatever it takes to rescue PNG,” he declared in Port Moresby.

“I can assure those who may contemplate being the next prime minister, that the propaganda coming from the locked and guarded at Kalabus Pangu (Loloata Resort) is not true.

“Leaders are worried the economy is in tatters. They are asking why our economy is performing so badly that the IMF has announced that they are opening a dedicated office in Port Moresby to monitor more closely the Treasury functions.”

O’Neill said the closure of the Porgera mine and the failure to move ahead in three years with any new major investments such as Wafi Golpu, along with massive borrowings and wastage had “shredded our financial position”.

He said genuine leaders did not want another five years like the last three.

“Our children are growing up thinking this violent society is normal,” he said.

“We now seem to be in freefall economically and socially and need to use this moment in time to reset ourselves and move forward with new leadership.”

Gorethy Kenneth is a PNG Post-Courier journalist. Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Today is officially the last day of campaigning in Papua New Guinea’s 2022 National General Election.

Count tomorrow until Monday as rest days, but in politically charged PNG, anything is possible, including illegal last-minute clandestine campaigning.

Polling is set to begin Tuesday, July 4, when millions will exercise their democratic right at the polls to elect their 118 MPs.

The exercise has been tainted by violence, mainly in the Highlands, and allegations of ballot tampering, but this has not discouraged the will of the people to get over this election.

“Wok Mas Go Het Yet” (Work must go on) has been the nationalistic slogan from patriotic Papua New Guineans who see it as their duty to fulfil their electoral obligations by overturning the results of 2017.

The 2022 national ballot will be a game changer for a country that has seen and experienced more upheavals in the past 5 years then any other time in its 47 years of independence.

Since the issue of writs on May 29, poll watchers have predicted a titanic struggle between the two main political parties PANGU (Green), led by incumbent Prime Minister James Marape and People’s National Congress (Red), led by former PM Peter O’Neill.

Red versus Green ‘armies’
Both the PNC Red Army of O’Neill and the PANGU Green Army of Marape have been at loggerheads in various campaign locations but the real test will come down to the wire on polling day.

Who will muster the numbers to gain power when the writs are returned on July 29?

Here is our analysis, based on our political coverage since last year, and based on analysis of the 2017 election results.

There have been many insights released and floated by scientists, political analysts, geologists and even by table mamas, wannabe “glassman” (sorcerers) and journalists on their bets.

The political landscape has been divided between Marape and O’Neill, though there may be other leaders like opposition leader Belden Namah, Patrick Pruaitch, William Duma, Sir John Pundari and the ‘Last Knight Standing’, Sir Julius Chan, who are contenders for this coming election.

However, all eyes are on the resource-rich provinces of Southern Highlands (O’Neill) and Hela (Marape).

This tectonic fracture was clearly evident in November 2020 when O’Neill tried sponsoring a vote of no confidence and he funded the Vanimo Camp, but Marape’s Loloata camp won that contest.

‘Take Back PNG’ mantra
The divide is obvious. Marape has mostly those who are first and second term MPs who are inclined to the “Take Back PNG” mantra and the philosophies behind it, while O’Neill had his old school politicians who all dreamed to be PM some day with the likes of Namah, Pundari, Charles Abel, Davis Steven, Powes Parkop, Sir Julius, Duma and Nick Kuman to name a few.

And as the nation goes into polls in three days time, this divide of the two classes of politicians still remains with the emerging heavyweights yet to show their power.

However, a “dark horse” in the shadows might emerge where we could see the rise of Enga if the battle of the Southern Highlanders does not work according to plan.

While it will be anybody’s game and being in the land of the unexpected, if the trend of the last elections where the ruling party returns to form government (National Alliance in 2007, People’s National Congress in 2012 and 2017) then it should be PANGU in 2022, but will they have the numbers to form government?

While some are sure of victory and already counting their eggs with the grand announcement of coalitions, others are holding their cards close to their chest like a true poker grandmaster.

This is the newspaper’s political projection from the election team at the PNG Post-Courier which will focus on the political party seats likely to win when polling starts on Tuesday.

Election projections
We project that of the 111 MPs in the last five years, 55 percent of sitting MPs will most likely lose their seats in this year’s 2022 National General Election.

Based on the 2017 NGE results, the sitting MPs who we project will not return are those that have scored less than 10 percent of total votes in their first count, and MPs that scored between 10– 20 percent in their first count are at extreme risks of losing their seats.

So these two categories make up about 55 percent of the sitting MPs, which translates to 57-60 MPs who most likely will not return.

To predict the number of seats to be won by each political party, we will use the simple winning percentage technique of each political party in 2017 to predict the potential wins for 2022 seats.

We will adjust for new political parties and also adjust for the PANGU Pati as it is going into this election as the ruling party.

We will also look at the main political parties and the independents and review each political party in 2017 versus the number of candidates each party endorsed in 2017 and the current 2022.

The independents make up 40 percent of the candidate list for 2022 among 53 political party endorsed candidates.

‘Dark horse’ parties
Then we have the “dark horse” parties that we will also talk about including their party leaders.

At the start of this election, PANGU went in with 40 but were down to 38 sitting MPs (2 had died) and the PNC was next with 15, NA 8, URP and ULP (less than 8 MPs).

The 2017 election results detailed that PNC had the highest winning numbers with 29 seats, National Alliance with 15 seats and PANGU and URP both returned 10 seats.

The rest had 5 seats or below with the exception of Independents that won 13 seats.

The tentative projections for the top five political parties and the independents for 2022:

• PNC endorsed 95 candidates in 2017, won 29 seats, a 31 percent win rate and in 2022 our projection is that of their 97 endorsed, 32 are likely to win.
• PANGU endorsed 69 in 2017, won only 10 seats, a 14 percent win rate and in 2022 they have endorsed 81 candidates 2022. Projection: 20 seats likely to win.
• United Resource Party (URP) endorsed 34 in 2017 and won 10 seats, a 29 percent win rate. In 2022, of 49 endorsed candidates, projected to win 14 seats.
• National Alliance Party (NA) endorsed 73 candidates in 2017, won 15 seats, a 21 per cent win rate. In 2022, they have 63 candidates; they will likely win 12 seats.
• PNG Party (PNGP) endorsed 87 candidates in 2017, won 4 seats for a 5 percent win rate. In 2022, they have endorsed 84; our projection is that they will win 5 seats again.
• The Independents had 1921 candidates in 2017 and won 13 seats, a 1 percent win rate. In 2022, they increased to 1500 and our projection is that they will win 10 seats.
• Of the women candidates, we expect a strong woman rally and predict a 5 seat mandate.

Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Three major parties have emerged as frontrunners to form the next government in Papua New Guinea with their party leaders eager to be next Prime Minister.

These are current coalition leader PANGU, headed by incumbent Prime Minister James Marape, opposition leader Belden Namah’s PNG Party and the People’s National Congress led by former prime minister Peter O’Neill.

These leaders and the parties have invested heavily in their campaign and candidates for next month’s general election. They are using strategic campaigning including social media outreach to network with supporters in the rural areas.

It is always a numbers game.

The party that wins the most seats gets the invite to form the next government with its leader the most likely Prime Minister.

But politics in PNG is fluid and smaller parties with critical numbers often hold sway over formations of government.

Eleventh hour horse trading in the past has always featured prominently with the formations of government and smaller parties would also be riding shotgun with the bigger parties.

Three-way race
If anything, this is a three-way horse race with each party trying by any means on the campaign track to derail the other, even to the extent of attacking opponents, setting fire to their posters, and burning their properties.

All three leaders have been hot around the country, shopping their candidates to the voters, selling policies and even discrediting other parties, bringing in tension along the way.

PANGU’s James Marape is confident of returning to form government in the next Parliament and says he will step down if otherwise.

“I am taking the government formation to Wewak and taking all members who win and we will form the government there,” declared Marape.

Pangu is banking on 75 candidates for this election and Marape has travelled over four provinces to support their candidates.

Vocal opposition leader Belden Namah has also openly put up his hands to become Prime Minister after 15 years on the other bench.

“I am serious in the business to be Prime Minister of PNG after this election,” said Namah, who is leader of the PNG Party, which has endorsed a total of 50 candidates.

Ready to lead
Namah added he had never raised his hands for the role in respect of late Sir Michael Somare but now he was ready to lead the country forward.

Another strong contender is former Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, leader of the People’s National Congress party, who has fielded 95 candidates contesting various seats across the country.

O’Neill has made it clear that the PNC party is ready to return to power.

He reportedly said that he and the PNC party was poised to return to government and “rescue” the country.

He said: “The new government needs to work harder… with a clear mandate to a political party with policies to deliver to the people and the country.

“To date, only PNC party has put [out] our policies, which are aimed at delivering basic services to our people and improving living standards.”

Other credible leaders
But while all eyes are on Marape, Namah and O’Neill, there are other credible leaders who just may be the new Prime Minister after the elections are over.

National Alliance Party leader Patrick Pruaitch, currently deputy PM, may have a chance, having been part of the two most recent coalition governments. For this election NA has endorsed a 59 candidates.

Other leaders like Powes Parkop, William Duma and Don Polye are also in running for the role having expressed their intentions.

While all these leaders vie for this top post, the one that comes through with the most numbers will be invited by the Governor-General to form the government.

The Papua New Guinea general election is on July 2-22.

Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Papua New Guinea’s Peoples’ National Congress is shaping up as the party to watch as the country’s general election approaches.

Nominations are set to finish later today with campaigning then in earnest through to early July when voting starts.

The Peoples’ National Congress (PNC) is led by Peter O’Neill who lost the prime ministership to James Marape in 2019.

The party, of which Marape was also once a member, had dominated PNG politics for the previous eight years.

RNZ Pacific’s PNG correspondent Scott Waide said the PNC had endorsed more than 90 candidates which has created a force to reckon with.

“Ninety candidates all over the country means that there is a higher possibility of PNC banking on its chances to get the members into parliament,” he said.

“PANGU has also put out a list of candidates. Surprisingly a lot of women in the PANGU group – at least five I think.”

Waide said the party of the late deputy prime minister, Sam Basil, the United Labour Party (ULP) is also shaping up to do well in this poll.

The PNG Parliament is larger than before, with the addition of seven new seats taking it to 118 members.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Central to the selection of the prime minister in Papua New Guinea following a general election is Section 63 of PNG’s Organic Law on Integrity of Political Parties and Candidates (OLIPPAC), which was passed in 2001 (and then amended in 2003).

Section 63 requires that the Governor-General invites the party with the highest number of MPs following a general election to form the government.

The main aim of the section is to ensure that the appointment of a prime minister after a general election is done in an “orderly way with direct relationship to the way voters expressed their wishes”.

Analysis shows that the passage of OLIPPAC has influenced government formation. First, it has increased the probability that, as is now a legislative requirement, the PM comes from the largest party.

This has happened in all elections since OLIPPAC was legislated (2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017), but only happened in two out of the five pre-OLIPPAC elections (1977 and 1982).

For example, as Table 1 shows, in 1997 the People’s National Congress Party (PNC) had the sixth highest number of MPs but still was able to put forward the successful candidate for PM.

Second, Section 63 also seems to have increased the odds of an incumbent PM being returned. Since the first post-independence election in 1977, five incumbent prime ministers have been re-appointed as PM following one of the country’s nine national elections (see Table 2).

Two developments closely related
The other four times a new prime minister was appointed post-elections. The five times the incumbent was returned are 1977 (Somare), 1987 (Wingti), 2007 (Somare), 2012 (O’Neill) and 2017 (O’Neill). Only two of the five incumbent returns are before the first enactment of OLIPPAC in 2001, and the other three are all post-OLIPPAC.

These two developments are closely related. Over the life of the Parliament, MPs tend to join the party of the PM, meaning that that party goes into the election with by far the largest number of MPs. For instance, PNC won 27 seats in 2012, led by the incumbent PM Peter O’Neill, and formed the government.

More MPs joined PNC, and by the time the 2017 elections came around, PNC had 55 MPs. Even though PNC lost 34 sitting MPs, with only 21 getting re-elected, it added seven new MPs in the 2017 elections.

This took PNC’s numbers to 28 MPs, and, after the 2017 elections, it wound up forming the government.

About half the incumbent MPs don’t get re-elected every election, but in general voters do not vote along party lines. Even if they do, and even if there is a swing against the PM’s party, because it has such an advantage going in, it is likely to emerge as the largest party as well.

In 2010, the Supreme Court ruled the restrictions imposed by OLIPPAC on the movement of MPs between parties unconstitutional. This means that MPs can move parties in the period between when they are declared winners following the national election and the appointment of the PM.

What happened in 1987, 1992 and 1997 — when parties with fewer MPs formed the government — could be repeated, Section 63 notwithstanding. All MPs would need to do is submit their letter of resignation to the party that endorsed them for the election, together with a letter of acceptance from the new party they intend to join, to the Registry of Political Parties and Candidates before the election of the PM, and their movement to the new party would become official.

Little incentive to leave
However, we have not seen that happening. This is because there is little incentive for MPs in the largest party to leave if it is likely to become the party of government. Rather, other MPs will join, by joining either the largest party or the governing coalition.

The only incumbent PM not to benefit from the passage of OLIPPAC was, ironically, its architect, Sir Mekere Morauta. He did not go into the election with the largest party, and he certainly did not emerge from it with the largest either.

This should remind us that there is no guarantee that the incumbent PM will be returned post-election. But it does seem that Section 63 has had the unintended consequence of increasing the probability of this happening.

Most view stability as a good thing, but the problem is that the more likely the incumbent is to be returned at the general election, the more pressure there will be to remove him (or perhaps one day her) by a vote of no confidence – since that becomes the only way to do it.

It may be no coincidence that both PMs who have so far benefited from Section 63 (Somare in 2002 and 2007 and O’Neill in 2012 and 2017) lost power mid-term on the floor of Parliament.

Note that the provisions of Section 63 of OLIPPAC do not apply to a vote of no confidence. In a vote of no confidence, any political party (or MP) is eligible to nominate a candidate to contest for the prime minister’s seat. Even an MP without a political party is eligible to be nominated for the PM’s post.

Section 63 was passed with good intentions, but has led to a situation in which increasing stability either side of elections may be reducing it between elections.

Michael Kabuni is a lecturer in political science at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Papua New Guinea. Dr Stephen Howes is the Director of the Development Policy Centre and a Professor of Economics at the Crawford School. This research was undertaken with the support of the ANU-UPNG Partnership, an initiative of the PNG-Australia Partnership, funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The views are those of the authors only.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Seven Pangu Pati members join the breakaway camp hoping to ousted Prime Minister Peter O’Neill. Video: EMTV News

Pacific Media Centre Newsdesk

All five MPs from Sandaun province have now joined Papua New Guinea’s breakaway camp at Port Moresby’s Laguna Hotel after the return of Sandaun Governor Tony Wouwou.

Wearing a Trukai Fun Run t-shirt, Wouwou appeared quite jovial as he was welcomed by other MPs into the leadership crisis camp.

And the breakaway camp now believe they have the numbers to oust Prime Minister Peter O’Neill as the rival groups shape up for the no-confidence vote this week.

READ MORE: PNGi investigates corruption, nertworks and the issues

About 1000 extra police are reportedly being deployed in the capital for tomorrow.

Scott Waide of EMTV News reported last night that during the past week Wouwou had been attacked and ridiculed on social media after he had initially appeared in an opposition news conference.

Then later – on the same day – Wouwou declared that he was a “diehard member” of O’Neill’s ruling People’s National Congress (PNC).

“We have the member for Vanimo Green, the member for Aitape-Lumi, the Member for Nuku and now we have the Governor,” former Defence Minister Solan Mirisim said in the news conference.

Consent needed
“I am the here as the Member for Telefomin.”

Various MPs, including East Sepik Governor Allan Bird, defended Wouwou, saying he needed to seek consent from his people before officially moving to the opposition.

Vanimo-Green MP Belden Namah, who did a head count this afternoon, said the camp now had two-thirds of the governors in the country.

He added that it was a sizable figure that expressed how provinces were feeling.

Wouwou’s arrival this afternoon now adds one more MP to the camp, taking the total to 58. Fifty seven MPs are needed to defeat O’Neill’s government in the 111-member Haus of Parliament.

Earlier at the weekend, seven members of the Pangu Pati – PNG’s first and oldest political party founded by Sir Michael Somare – had joined the breakaway camp led by former Finance Minister James Marape who quit O’Neill’s government last month.

Soon after resigning from Pangu, the MPs were welcomed at Laguna by Marape and other leaders.

Not managed well
Speaking on their behalf, Central Governor Robert Agarobe said their stand was to change government leadership.

Morobe Governor Ginson Sinou said the country had not been managed well despite the vast mineral and forestry resources available.

Sinou said this was the time to stop the current leadership for the good of the nation.

Carmella Gware of Loop PNG reported that Deputy Prime Minister Charles Abel said the PNC “remains solid”.

Addressing the media on Saturday evening at the Crown Hotel, in the presence of Milne Bay Governor John Luke Crittin, Abel stressed the PNC’s teamwork “despite our good brothers leaving us”.

“We certainly take on board all those issues that were raised by our brothers and issues that were raised by myself,” he said.

‘Understanding attitude’
“And I’m so thankful that the party and our Prime Minister has the understanding attitude that they have, we go forward together, we take on those issues, and as a team, we continue to respond to those issues.”

RNZ Pacific’s Johnny Blades reported opposition MPs were “quietly confident” that they had the momentum to remove O’Neill as his government “reels from a series of resignations”.

He said the opposition Laguna Hotel camp was offering an “open door” for any more government MPs who wished to join their bid to remove the prime minister.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz