There is no doubt that the war Israel and the United States have launched against Iran will have global economic consequences. While it is difficult to know what those consequences will be, it is hard to see them as positive, and they could be very, very negative.

Already we have seen oil prices spike by 8 percent since last week, and by much more since January.

Oil prices reached above US$100 a barrel with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but then gradually started to fall, and by the start of the year had returned to their pre-2022 level of US$60.

Just before the weekend they had risen to US$70 and now they are almost at US$80. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, they could rise much more.

That is on the price front. There could also, unlike in 2022, be problems on the quantity side.

If it continues to be difficult to ship oil out of the Middle East, then shortages of oil might start to emerge. The countries that will do best in such a situation are those with large stockpiles or plenty of bargaining power.

The Pacific Island countries have neither.

Reliant on 80% oil
The Pacific is also vulnerable because of its extreme reliance on oil. According to a 2022 UN report, the Pacific meets 80 percent of its energy requirements through oil.

Even in the electricity sector, renewable energy sources make only a limited contribution.

There has been some growth in renewable energy as an electricity source. According to analysis by Janendra Prasad at UNSW, the share of renewable energy in electricity production in the Pacific has increased from 17 percent in 2017 to 24 percent in 2023. That is still low, and nowhere near what Pacific governments are themselves targeting (in excess of 80 percent by 2030).

The Pacific is also vulnerable because of its lack of domestic oil production and very limited storage capacity. In fact, Tonga suffered fuel shortages last year due to problems with its fuel depot and a stranded fuel vessel.

With drivers now queuing in Australia and the UK to get their petrol before prices rise or petrol rationing begins, it wouldn’t be surprising to see queues develop across the Pacific.

Governments can tell people not to panic, but it may seem like a rational response given the risks of petrol price rises and rationing.

It is important to clarify that PNG is the “odd one out” in the Pacific. PNG will actually likely benefit from the crisis as it is a large exporter of LNG. The government’s tax and dividend take will increase as LNG prices rise.

PNG oil refinery
PNG also has an oil refinery. And this war will also help the prospects for PNG’s much-delayed and still-uncertain future LNG projects by increasing the value to Asia of sourcing its LNG nearer to home than the Middle East.

So far we have focused on petroleum. But there are also the wider ramifications of the war.

It may lead to an uptick in global inflation, and may even push the world towards or even into recession. An oil shock on its own is unlikely to be enough to lead to a recession, but an escalated, widespread Middle East conflict (or possibly a conflict that extends to Turkey and Europe) certainly could.

Again, PNG will benefit from a further increase in the gold price as investors lose faith in the US, and therefore in the US dollar.

But overall, what is bad for the world is bad for the Pacific. Remittances, tourism, fishing licence fees, aid and investment returns would all suffer in the event of a global recession.

There is a possible upside. If Iran capitulates and, with or without regime change, gives in to US demands, then, with sanctions removed, oil production might go up and oil prices down.

Right now, that doesn’t seem like a likely scenario.

Relevant positives
More relevant are the positives that could limit or to some extent offset the downside for the Pacific.

One is that it is still unclear how long this war will go on for. The shorter it is the less worrying the outcomes.

A second is the positive role Australia can play. Although there are questions about Australia’s own limited oil storage capacity, Australia will be under pressure to share whatever oil it is able to import with its Pacific family.

Third, and longer-term, this crisis, especially if it is long-lasting, might make the world more serious about the renewable transition, not so much to avoid dangerous climate change, but to shore up energy security.

Understandably, for the Pacific, which is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and whose emissions are negligible at the global level, the focus to date has been on climate change adaptation rather than mitigation.

But the sort of crisis currently unfolding should give the Pacific countries and their funders a stronger incentive to close the growing gap between Pacific renewable energy targets and reality — not to reduce the risks of climate change, but rather to reduce Pacific vulnerability to an increasingly shock- and conflict-prone Middle East.

Stephen Howes is director of the Development Policy Centre and professor of economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. Rubayat Chowdhury is a macroeconomist with experience working on monetary policy, growth, and economic development in emerging market economies. He is a research officer at the Development Policy Centre. 

Stephen Howes was recently interviewed on this topic for the ABC’s Pacific Beat programme.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

French Senators have endorsed a Constitutional amendment text regarding New Caledonia’s future political status.

Two-hundred and fifteen senators (mostly an alliance between right and centre-right parties) voted in favour, and 41 voted against.

The four-hour sitting was marked by a lengthy address by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who supported the text, saying a status quo on New Caledonia was “not a viable option”.

He said to leave things as they were would amount to “abandoning France’s republican ideals, social progress and the renewed construction of peace” in the French Pacific territory.

“This [Bougival] agreement is not perfect”, Lecornu conceded, “but it is the best we have collectively come up with in four years of negotiations.”

Lecornu said the extra package contained some sizeable chunks dedicated to “strengthening (New Caledonia’s) attractiveness” (330 million euros) through the creation of trade free zones, tax exemptions for future investing businesses and another 500 million euros dedicated to support the crucial nickel mining and processing industry.

But not without conditions.

“A credible transformation plan was currently in the making,” Lecornu explained.

“To support and accompany, yes, but to fund losses indefinitely, no.”

The vote comes almost two years after unrest and riots in May 2024, leaving 14 dead and more than 2 billion euros in material damage, as well as hundreds of businesses looted and destroyed.

Since then, New Caledonia has struggled to put its economy (which suffered a reduction of its GDP by 13.5 percent) back on its feet.

Trigger issue
The main triggering factor for the 2024 riots was a legislative process before the French Parliament in a bid to modify conditions of eligibility for New Caledonian citizens at local elections.

These elections are important because they determine the members of the three provinces (North, South and the Loyalty Islands), membership of the territory’s Parliament  (Congress), and members of New Caledonia’s government and its president.

The process was eventually aborted after initially peaceful protests (organised by one of the main components of the pro-independence FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front) — Union Calédonienne, and its Field Action Coordinating Cell — degenerated into riots.

During the same sitting, French Senators have also endorsed another amendment that once again postpones the date of New Caledonia’s provincial elections to 20 December 2026 at the latest.

The crucial poll has already been postponed three times since its initial scheduled date of May 2024.

The Senatorial vote is only the first step in a longer legislative path for the text on New Caledonia, based on the transcription of talks that were held in July 2025 and in January 2026.

The meetings, which respectively resulted in texts dubbed “Bougival” and “Elysée-Oudinot”, were initially endorsed by a large majority of New Caledonia’s parties represented at its local Congress.

But since August 2025, the FLNKS has withdrawn its support, saying the proposed agreements do not represent a credible path to the full sovereignty they demand.

Over the past few weeks, intense lobbying has taken place both in New Caledonia and  Paris, both on the pro-independence and the pro-France side of the political chessboard, in order to win over French MPs.

“Kanaky-New Caledonia has already paid a heavy price because of the [French] government’s stubbornness,” he told senators.

The text tabled in the French Parliament proposes to establish a “State of New Caledonia” within the French realm, as well as a correlated New Caledonian “nationality” (tied to a pre-existing French nationality), as well as a new process of gradual transfer of powers from Paris. But at the same time it rejects any future use of referendums (an instrument regarded by Paris as “divisive”).

Between 2018 and 2021, as prescribed by the 1998 Nouméa Accord, three referenda have been held regarding New Caledonia’s self-determination. They resulted in three rejections of independence, even though the last poll — in December 2021 — was widely boycotted by the pro-independence movement.

“It is because of these three votes, which say ‘yes’ to the French Republic, that this very republic must deploy its economic and social ambition, regardless of the future outcome of political talks”, pro-France Les Loyalistes leader Sonia Backès commented on social networks.

Another prominent pro-France politician, New Caledonia’s MP at the National Assembly, Nicolas Metzdorf, said Tuesday’s vote was “a first step”.

But the text, just like in 2024, also touches on the conditions of eligibility to gain the right to vote at local elections.

Until now, under the ageing Nouméa Accord (1998), the right to vote at local elections is “frozen” to a special roll that includes people born in New Caledonia or residing there before 1998, among other conditions.

“Unfreezing” the electoral roll would mean allowing some 12,000 more people born in New Caledonia and another 6,000 people who have been residing for at least an uninterrupted 15 years.

‘Waiting for stability’
Opponents to the project, just like in 2024, argue that this opening would contribute to diluting the indigenous voice at local political elections.

The other Senator for New Caledonia, Georges Naturel (regarded as pro-France, Les Républicains party) abstained because “deep inside, I know this Constitutional reform will unfortunately not bring the stable and long term political solution New Caledonia needs”.

Socialist and Green Senators also abstained, saying any future comprehensive agreement has to include everyone, including the FLNKS.

Otherwise, “there is no lasting solution to ensure peace, stability and development”, Socialists leaders argued last week in an op-ed in national daily Le Monde.

They went even further saying that the text currently under scrutiny, as it stands, is “ominous” and “dangerous”.

The move, already announced last week by the Socialists, was designed to give the government “the opportunity to suspend debates on the text and call for provincial elections at the end of May or beginning of June 2026, instead of the now re-scheduled December 2026).

According to this scenario, this would then be followed by a new round of discussions, involving newly-elected members of New Caledonia’s Congress.

French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou reacted to the Senate’s vote, saying New Caledonians “have gone through tiring months and are now waiting for stability and useful decisions regarding their day-to-day lives”.

Moutchou admitted the proposed process and associated calendar was “very imperfect and in parts very unsatisfactory . . . but it is indispensable. To stop this constitutional bill now would mean to close the door to the ongoing process since Bougival [talks],” she told a French Senate committee on 17 February 2026.

“We have to give this imperfect process a chance because it has the merit of providing visibility to local stakeholders,” she said.

In the Lower House, opposition ranks are much stronger and therefore debates and process are expected to be much rockier, with the open support of large blocks of opposition, including far-left LFI (La France Insoumise, Unbowed France).

Another significant and openly declared opponent is the far-right Rassemblement National (RN).

Others include the Socialists, the Greens, the Communist Party, according to latest reports.

Later, since this is a Constitutional Amendment, both Houses of Parliament are expected to be summoned and to be endorsed validly, the Constitutional Bill needs to receive the support of three fifths of the joint sitting (called a Congress, held in the city of Versailles).

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The signing of a new agreement on New Caledonia’s political and financial future has triggered a fresh wave of reactions from across the French territory’s political chessboard.

The Elysée-Oudinot agreement was signed on Monday, January 19, in the presence of French President Emmanuel Macron as well as most of New Caledonia’s politicians.

But the pro-independence FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front), the largest component of the pro-independence movement, had chosen not to travel to Paris.

The new deal, signed by parties represented at New Caledonia’s Congress (its local parliament), including members of the moderate pro-independence PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Union Progressiste en Mélanésie), who have split from FLNKS, all signed the agreement.

PALIKA and UPM are formed into a Parliamentary caucus called “UNI” (Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance).

The Elysée-Oudinot text was described as being a “complement” bearing “clarifications” to a previous agreement project, signed in July 2025 in the small city of Bougival, west of Paris.

The FLNKS, even though it initially signed the Bougival text, rejected it in bloc a few days after returning to New Caledonia.

As French President Macron called all politicians back to the table to refine the July 2025 talks, FLNKS announced it would not travel to Paris, saying the project which would serve as the basis for further talks did not meet their short-term goals of full sovereignty.

They said the Bougival text and all related documents were in substance “lures” of independence and that they regarded the French state as being responsible for a “rupture of dialogue”.

As the Bougival initial text, its Elysée-Oudinot complement maintains the notion of creating a “state of New Caledonia”, its correlated “nationality” and introduces a new set of commitments from France, including a package to re-launch the local economy, severely damaged as a result of the riots that broke out in May 2024.

The new text also mentions granting more powers to each of New Caledonia’s three provinces (North, South and the Loyalty Islands group), including in terms of revenue collection by way of taxes.

This, the FLNKS protested, could erode the powers of New Caledonian provinces and reinforce economic and social inequalities between them.

Reacting to the signing in Paris in their absence, the FLNKS, in a media release on Wednesday, condemned and rejected the new text “unequivocally”.

FLNKS President Christian Téin, in the release, said the new agreement endorses a “passage en force” (forceful passage) and is “incompatible” with the way the FLNKS envisages Kanaky’s “decolonisation path”, including in the way it is defined under the United Nations decolonisation process.

It also criticises a document signed “without the Indigenous people” of New Caledonia.

The pro-independence party also expressed its disapproval of what it calls a “pseudo-accord”.

“We will use every political tool available to us to re-alert, again and again the public”, FLNKS politburo member Gilbert Tyuienon told public broadcaster Nouvelle-Calédonie La Première at the weekend.

French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou had reiterated, even after the signing in Paris, that the door remained open to FLNKS.

In reaction to the signing, other parties have also expressed their respective points of view.

“Why didn’t they come [to Paris] to defend their positions, since they were invited?” Southern Province President (pro-France) Sonia Backès wrote on social networks.

“Does UNI not represent the Kanak people too?” she added.

French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou said this new set of agreements reflected a “shared will to look at the future together”.

“Now the territory can walk on its two legs”.

Some of the pro-France parties, who want New Caledonia to remain a part of France, have however acknowledged that even though the new documents were signed, the road ahead remained rocky in terms of its implementation in the French Parliament, through a local referendum and related constitutional amendments.

‘We’ve done the easiest part’ — Metzdorf
New Caledonia’s MP at the French National Assembly, Nicolas Metzdorf said a huge challenge still remained ahead.

“We’ve done the easiest, the hardest part remains . . .  This is to obtain the [French] Parliament’s support, both Houses, to enact the accords in the French Constitution.”

Following a very tight schedule in the coming weeks, the texts will be submitted to the vote of both Parliament Houses, first separately, then in a joint chamber format (the Congress, for constitutional amendment purposes).

Then the text is also to be submitted to New Caledonia’s population for approval through a referendum-like “consultation”.

In a way of foretaste of what promises to be heated debates in coming weeks, with a backdrop of strong divisions in the French Parliament, Moutchou and far-left MP Bastien Lachaud (La France Insoumise, LFI) waged a war of words on Tuesday in the National Assembly.

Responding to Lachaud’s accusations which echoed those from FLNKS, Moutchou denounced the “passage en force” claim and the absence of “consensus”.

“FLNKS was never excluded from anything. It was invited, it was approached, it was awaited, just like the other ones. It chose not to turn up,” Moutchou said.

“The politics of empty chair was never conducive to a compromise,” she said as Assembly Speaker Yaël Braun-Pivet had to call the LFI caucus back to order.

Strong financial component
Some of the financial aspects of the deals include a five-year “reconstruction” plan for New Caledonia, for a total of 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4 billion), presented to New Caledonia’s politicians by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

This chapter also comes with revisiting previous French loans for more than 1 billion euros, which New Caledonia found almost impossible to repay (with an indebtedness rate of 360 percent).

The loans, under the agreement’s financial chapter, would be renegotiated, re-scheduled and possibly converted into non-refundable grants.

Meanwhile a two-year repayment holiday (2026-2027) would be applied, while a far-reaching reform programme is expected to be pursued.

“What people really expected was [economic] prospects. This is the main part of this accord, the economic refoundation,” commented Vaimu’a Muliava, from Wallis-based Eveil Océanien party after the Paris talks.

The new financial arrangements would also provide a much-needed lifebuoy to critically threatened mechanisms in New Caledonia, such as its retirement scheme or the power supply company.

More injections for the nickel industry
Another 200 million euros is also earmarked to bail out several nickel mining companies facing critical hardships.

This includes assistance aimed at supporting business and employment for French historical Société le Nickel (SLN), Prony Resources and NMC (Nickel Mining Company, which has ties to Korea’s POSCO).

The French government has also pledged to follow-up on a request to New Caledonia’s nickel mining and refining declared a “strategic” sector by the European Union.

“The agreement’s economic chapter was as necessary as the political one,” said New Caledonia’s President Alcide Ponga after the signing.

Another cash injection was directed to this year’s budget for New Caledonia, which benefits from a direct cash injection of 58 million euros.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Talks on New Caledonia’s political future have been underway in Paris after French President Emmanuel Macron launched a fresh roundtable on Friday, despite the absence of one of the French territory’s largest pro-independence group, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS).

During a first meeting with New Caledonia’s political stakeholders, Macron “regretted one of the political partners did not wish to respond to our invitation”.

But he said more talks were needed to “reach an agreement to get out of an already too long uncertainty”.

“Today, the State wishes to continue to advance on stabilising New Caledonia’s institutions, as part of a dialogue respectful of everyone, without any forceful passage, but without any paralysis either,” the French President said.

New Caledonia’s Congress (Parliament) Speaker Veylma Falaeo (Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien party) echoed Macron’s remarks, saying she too regretted the absence of the FLNKS absence “but it’s now time to move forward”.

Eveil Océanien leader Milakulo Tukumuli suggested politicians should agree on a “new period of stability of 15 to 20 years to rebuild and reform [New Caledonia], after which a new referendum could be held on a new common project or even an associated state”.

“[Macron] has now considered that one could not eternally wait for people who are not here around the table and that therefore we had to move forward because, and we told him once again, either we move forward or New Caledonia is sinking,” Pro-France Virginie Ruffenach (Rassemblement-LR) told French media.

The FLNKS, which last week decided not to travel to Paris for the talks, had however formulated a late request to join in remotely.

The request was declined.

Hardline pro-France politicians confront Macron
During the same opening session dedicated to each party’s statement, the most confrontational ones came from the two main pro-France MPs, who have also recently become increasingly critical of the French President.

“We have done our part. We have negotiated; we have made concessions; we have taken our responsibilities. Now it’s on you to do your part,” Les Loyalistes leader Sonia Backès told the gathering on Friday.

“Those who don’t want any agreement have already made us lose precious time.

“We are here because the [French] state did not engage sufficient forces on 13 May 2024.”

She was referring to the riots that killed 14, damaged or destroyed hundreds of businesses and the loss of thousands of jobs for a total of some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4 billion) in damages.

She said the text, even if it was to be modified, was about “choosing what kind of society we want . . .  Either it’s the rule of the strongest or it’s a victory for democracy,” she told Macron.

Another pro-France outspoken politician, New Caledonia’s MP in the National Assembly Nicolas Metzdorf, said: “Mr President, I don’t really know what we are doing here today. We never requested this meeting . . .  Because as far as we’re concerned, we did everything that had to be done. We have worked. We have negotiated. We have made concessions.

“Instead, you should have convened the [French] ministers and parliamentary groups who remain . . .  paralysed by fear.”

‘Basic principles of democracy’
Metzdorf went further in accusing France of being “unable to enforce the basic principles of democracy when it comes to one of its own territories”.

“As far as we’re concerned, we have reached the limits of what is acceptable. Now things are simple and perfectly clear: either we come out of this sequence [of discussions] with a precise text, a clear schedule and endorsement by Parliament or we will radically change our strategy and we’ll turn against our own state by using all means available to us.”

He was alluding to suing the French state in the European Human Rights Court of Justice, in reference to current restrictions to New Caledonia’s electoral roll at provincial elections, as prescribed under the previous 1998 Nouméa Accord.

This is the criteria that limits the number of eligible voters at provincial elections to those born or residing before 1998 and their descendents.

“Mr President, we have nothing left to lose . . .  Because we can see the Republic has no more promise left for us,” Metzdorf added.

However, he appeared to remain optimistic: “With [pro-independence] UNI, we’ll find a point of equilibrium in the next few days.”

Moderate pro-independence leader Jean-Pierre Djaïwé, who belongs to the UNI (Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance, a gathering of PALIKA — Kanak Liberation Party — and UPM — Union Progressiste en Mélanésie), which broke away from the FLNKS and supported the Bougival text, said in Paris his aim was to “improve what can be improved”.

Financial backing needed
But other party leaders, like Philippe Dunoyer (from moderate pro-France Calédonie Ensemble), said any new agreement would remain meaningless without substantial French financial backing.

New Caledonia’s MP in the French Senate, Georges Naturel, made an outright call to Macron, asking him to be “lucid” and recognise that it is “impossible to implement” the 12 July 2026 agreement project within its original schedule.

Macron did not respond to the comments before departing the session.

After an initial sequence on Friday, marked by declarations by Macron and the main political parties in attendance, both pro-France and pro-independence, the session then split into workshops hosted by the French Ministry for Overseas, under the supervision of its Minister, Naïma Moutchou.

The talks are focusing on several aspects of the implementation of an earlier project agreement signed in July 2025.

The text, in its initial form, was mentioning the creation of a “State of New Caledonia” with its correlated “nationality” and a mechanism of gradual transfers of more powers from France to New Caledonia.

The specific themes discussed this month include the notions of the transfer of powers from France, self-determination, defence, security, external relations, the recognition of the indigenous Kanak identity and further financial assistance under a “refoundation pact” proposed by France for a total of 2.2 billion euros over a 5-year period.

Revised pact with ‘clarifications’
The final aim remains to arrive at a new document with “clarifications” to the initial Bougival pact signed in July 2025.

But the Bougival text has since faced several major obstacles in its implementation process.

This includes its outright rejection by the pro-independence FLNKS, while all other New Caledonian parties have decided to support the project at various levels.

FLNKS calls the July 2025 project a “lure of independence” because it does not address its demands for a short-term full sovereignty.

Another major obstacle was the division within the French Parliament, still faced with the absence of a clear majority, which has also delayed the endorsement of the French 2026 Appropriation Bill (budget).

Another objective of the talks is to have the revised project quickly endorsed by the French National Assembly (Lower House) in February and by the Senate (Upper House) mid-April and a final joint meeting of both House, under a “Congress” format to have the final document approved to modify the French Constitution.

If all those modifications eventuate, the next document would be renamed “Elyséee-Oudinot” and the original name of “Bougival” scrapped.

FLNKS reacts from Nouméa
Speaking on Sunday, FLNKS political bureau member and member of Union Calédonienne, Gilbert Tyuienon, denounced the Paris talks, saying this was not in line with the previous agreement signed under the name of “Nouméa Accord” in 1998, which paved the way for a decolonisation process for New Caledonia.

He said even if the Paris talks produced a new, revised document, it remained highly doubtful that it could be endorsed by French MPs “because President Macron doesn’t have a majority in Parliament”.

Another difficulty, he said, was that under the revised roadmap, New Caledonia’s provincial (local) elections could be postponed for the fourth time to sometime in September 2026.

But he pointed out that, when it gave its final green light to the former postponement to no later than 28 June 2026, the French Constitutional Council made it clear this should be the last time the crucial poll was rescheduled.

Back in Paris, talks were scheduled to continue on Monday and possibly conclude on another session supervised by Macron, should a new document emerge.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New Caledonia’s pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS)  has put in a late request to join talks on the territory’s future remotely.

The meeting, convened by French President Emmanuel Macron, is calling all politicians from the French Pacific territory back to the negotiating table.

The FLNKS said earlier this week it would not travel to Paris for the “make or break” roundtable.

However, as the meeting approached, FLNKS officials advised that they had also made a last-minute proposal to the French President’s office that — instead of travelling to Paris — they could take part in the talks remotely by videoconference.

The offer was conveyed in a letter to the President, FLNKS official and Union Calédonienne secretary general Dominique Fochi confirmed to public broadcaster Nouvelle-Calédonie la 1ère yesterday.

But even though Macron’s advisors acknowledged receipt of the FLNKS message, it is not known whether he would entertain the last-minute request.

“We treated FLNKS fairly, just like the other political groups”, one of Macron’s advisers said, adding that “even in the visible absence of FLNKS” they believe it is “still worth moving forward”.

More direct
During question time in Parliament on Wednesday, Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou’s words were more direct.

Referring to the FLNKS absence, she said: “We will not accept that, due to the absence of some, New Caledonians would be held hostage.

“Nobody has a right of veto on the territory of New Caledonia,” she told MPs in the National Assembly.

The meeting follows talks held in July 2025 that led to the signing of an agreement project since dubbed the Bougival Text.

The project agreement intended to pave the way for the creation of a “state of New Caledonia” within France and its correlated “New Caledonian nationality”, as well as the gradual transfer of more powers from France to its Pacific territory.

But just a few days later, on 9 August 2025, the FLNKS, the main component in New Caledonia’s pro-independence Kanak movement, denounced the Bougival text, saying it was a “lure” of independence.

More details from Macron’s entourage
On Wednesday, Macron’s entourage (including his closest advisers) also provided some information on the meeting’s format and the fact that they believed pursuing the talks was “still worth it”, “without a passage en force”, but “without paralysing (New Caledonia) either”, because “expectations from New Caledonia’s population are high”.

The initial roundtable at the French Presidential office, in the form of a plenary session was announced to take place on January 16 in the afternoon (Paris time), with officials in attendance including President Macron, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Speakers of both Houses of Parliament Gérard Larcher (Senate) and Yaël Braun-Pivet (National Assembly), as well as Minister for Overseas Moutchou.

New Caledonia’s politicians would then split into several workshops for the whole weekend, each focusing on a specific theme, including New Caledonia’s economic recovery, the indigenous Kanak people’s identity and recognition, the process of transferring powers from France to New Caledonia, and the notion of self-determination.

One of the workshops would also focus on an offer made in December 2025 by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu — a financial assistance recovery package of over 2 billion euros (NZ$4 bilion) over a period of five years.

The expected outcome would be a final document containing additions and amendments to the July 2025 text.

Scrap the name of ‘Bougival’
One notable feature would also be that the name “Bougival” should eventually disappear in the final version of the expected agreement, which it is hoped would be presented on Monday, January 19.

“What we sometimes observe in certain cases is that this agreement of July 12, known as the Bougival agreement, had become, by its very name, an obstacle to moving forward”, one president’s adviser admitted.

“We will see during the discussion that will begin on Friday whether it is appropriate to give a new name to the agreement of July 12 to better represent the feelings of all parties,” the Élysée concluded.

It was also expected, should the new text be allowed to progress, that a constitutional amendment would later be endorsed by the French Congress (which is made up of both Houses of Parliament, the National Assembly and the Senate).

A consultation of New Caledonia’s population by a de facto referendum on the framework blueprint would also be re-activated, presidential sources told French national media.

This referendum-like consultation was put on hold in December 2025, due to delays and an expected lack of parliamentary support.

The date of New Caledonia’s crucial provincial elections (currently scheduled for no later than 28 June 2026) could once again be postponed to September.

Those local elections were originally planned to take place in May 2024 and since then have been re-scheduled three times.

From the Macron entourage’s point of view, with five out of six New Caledonian political groups in attendance in Paris this week, “there is a possibility to bring about an agreement that would gather, if everyone signs, 75 percent of New Caledonia’s Congress members”.

75.9 percent support at local Congress
In New Caledonia’s Parliament (Congress), apart from the FLNKS (which currently holds 13 of the 54 seats, 24.08 percent), the other political parties who support the Bougival project total 41 MPs (75.9 percent).

New Caledonia’s other parties (both pro-independence and pro-France) who signed the Bougival document all resolved to honour their signatures and to continue defending it.

In the pro-independence camp, apart from a FLNKS now dominated by Union Calédonienne, two parties now regarded as “moderate” are supporting the Bougival process: PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia).

They split from the FLNKS, citing profound differences.

PALIKA and UPM are now formed into a Congress caucus totalling 12 MPs.

They believe within the Bougival project framework, their goal of full sovereignty remains achievable in the middle run.

However, even though they signed the document in July 2025, they have consistently voiced some reservations and sought more clarifications and possible amendments.

This regarded, for instance, questions as to how the envisaged transfers of powers would legally take place.

Apart from the pro-independence camp (FLNKS and UNI), the other parties, on the pro-France side, are Eveil Océanien-Calédonie Ensemble — now merged into one single Congress caucus of 8 MPs — Rassemblement (6) and Les Loyalistes (13).

Economy still reeling
During the Paris talks today, a significant part is also scheduled to focus on New Caledonia’s economic recovery and French assistance.

New Caledonia was engulfed in civil unrest in May 2024, leading to the death of 14 people, more than 2 billion euros in damage, thousands left jobless and a drop of 13.5 percent in the French territory’s GDP.

Last month, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu mooted a plan totalling over €2 billion over a five-year period to help the French Pacific territory’s recovery.

But the plan would also involve, beyond five years, that France should cease funding areas and powers that had already been transferred to local authorities over the past 20 years, under the previous 1998 Nouméa autonomy Accord.

Meanwhile, the French assistance plans depend on passing the 2026 budget, which has not been endorsed yet by a divided French Parliament with no clear majority.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived another two motions of no confidence, tabled respectively by far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and far-left LFI (La France Insoumise, Unbowed France).

The LFI motion received 256 votes in support while the RN document was supported by 142 MPs.

They needed at least 288 votes to trigger the downfall of the French government.

They were both in protest against France’s stance with regards to the signing of the Mercosur free trade agreement between European Union and Latin American countries on  January 10.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

In mid-December 2025, Macron invited New Caledonia’s politicians back to the negotiating table in Paris on Friday, January 16.

In his letter, Macron wrote that the anuary 16 session came in the footsteps of the July 2025 talks that led to the signing of an agreement project since dubbed the Bougival Agreement.

Macron said the intent was to “pursue dialogue with every partner” in the form of a “progress report” aiming at “opening new political prospects” to allow the French government to then continue discussions.

The main perceived goal of the Paris meeting was to attempt one more time to involve the FLNKS in a form of resumed talks so as not to exclude any political stakeholder.

In July 2025, after 10 days of intense negotiations in the small town of Bougival (west of Paris), a text was signed by all of New Caledonia’s political parties.

The project agreement intended to pave the way for the creation of a “state of New Caledonia” within France and its correlated “New Caledonian nationality”, as well as the gradual transfer of more powers from France to its Pacific territory.

‘Lure’ of independence
But just a few days later, on 9 August 2025, FLNKS denounced the Bougival text, saying it was a “lure” of independence.

It therefore rejected it in block because it did not address its claims of short-term full sovereignty.

Part of their demands was that just the FLNKS, as New Caledonia’s “only legitimate liberation movement”, should be engaged with the French state and that the talks should aim at reaching a deal for a short-term full sovereignty — what they term a “Kanaky deal”.

Speaking at a media conference yesterday, FLNKS president Christian Téin confirmed there would be no delegation in Paris on behalf of his party.

“The [French] government is trying to lock us and all of New Caledonia’s players into the Bougival agreement. We cannot condone that,” he told local media, stressing once again a “forceful” approach.

He said solutions to the current deadlock should be found “not in Paris, but here in New Caledonia”.

Aiming for elections
“One of the main objectives of the FLNKS, the party said, was now to aim for as many seats as possible at the next two elections scheduled for 2026: the municipal poll and the crucial provincial elections, scheduled to take place no later than the end of June 2026.

“For us, this is a strategic lever so we can affirm our independence project” . . .  “to send our message loud and clear to the whole of the country, to [mainland] France and at the international level,” FLNKS official Marie-Pierre Goyetche said.

New Caledonia’s other parties who signed the same Bougival document, both pro-independence and pro-France, all resolved to honour their signatures and to continue defending it and advocating for it with their respective supporters.

In the pro-independence camp, the “moderate” parties, including PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia) who had split from the FLNKS, citing profound differences, later voiced some reservations and wished for more clarifications and possible amendments on the text.

This regarded, for instance, questions as to how the envisaged transfers of powers would legally materialise and translate.

Pro-French parties react
Reactions to the FLNKS’ latest announcement to snub the Paris talks were swift on Tuesday.

They mainly came from the pro-France camp, which finally resolved to respond to Macron’s invite.

“FLNKS won’t come and it was predictable . . .  because an agreement is not in their interest”, said outspoken pro-France MP for New Caledonia Nicolas Metzdorf, who has been increasingly critical of France’s approach in relation to the FLNKS.

“FLNKS boycotts discussions in Paris. Unfortunately, this is no surprise,” said Rassemblement-Les Républicains (LR) leader Virginie Ruffenach.

She said it was now up to the French state to maintain the cycle of discussions “without giving in or going backwards”.

“There shouldn’t be a reward for empty chairs,” she said, adding that she saw the FLNKS boycott announcement as a “proof of irresponsibility”.

“Because New Caledonia is at the end of its tether and that, in this context, our responsibility is to go and finalise an agreement in Paris,” she said, in reference to New Caledonia’s dire economic situation.

‘Empty chair’ v ‘democracy’
“To accept that their absence should win over dialogue would be to admit that in the French Republic, boycott has more weight than votes, that an empty chair is worth more than democracy,” she wrote on social networks.

New Caledonia’s Finance Minister Christopher Gygès also commented on the recent announcement, saying: “It’s now time for this situation to cease. New Caledonia needs to move forward and rebuild itself.

“The [French state] cannot remain prisoner of postures. It needs to work with those who sincerely wish to move forward.”

Moderate pro-France Calédonie Ensemble party leader Philippe Dunoyer, who has been advocating for an inclusion of the FLNKS in future talks, said he was “disappointed” and “very surprised, in a negative way”.

“When there is no agreement, there are no prospects”, he told public broadcaster Nouvelle-Calédonie la 1ère.

Most of New Caledonia’s politicians are already on their way to Paris.

Agree to disagree on no agreement until 2027?
Since Macron’s invitation for fresh talks in Paris was issued, it was already met with reluctance from all sides across New Caledonia’s political chessboard.

Even on the pro-France side, the general feeling was that if fresh talks were meant to question the already fragile balances arrived at in Bougival, then they would be very wary.

“Because, you know, they were scared of fresh violence in New Caledonia because of a possible boycott from FLNKS,” Metzdorf said in December 2025.

“I think everyone is paralysed with fear.

“But I want to say it right now. If this new meeting wants to take us further than Bougival, it will be no.”

He said earlier in 2025, before Bougival, at a “conclave” held in New Caledonia with then-French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls, his pro-France political camp had already rejected a previous proposal of New Caledonia as an associated state of France precisely because it would lead to independence.

“We did this once and we will reject all the same any form of independence association a second time.

“We will vote against, including in Parliament and there will be no agreement at all, until 2027.”

Presidential election 2027
France’s next presidential election is set down for 2027.

In a letter sent to Macron in December 2025, Metzdorf and other like-minded loyalist (pro-France) political groups responded to stress the same: “If the exchanges that you are proposing on next 16 January 2025 were to revisit the political equilibriums of the Bougival Agreement, then the Loyalists will simply not support it”.

FLNKS already had strong reservations when Macron’s invitation was issued.

It recalled its outright rejection of anything related to the Bougival document and said under the current circumstances, these kind of talks “does not allow to create the conditions of a sincere and useful dialogue”.

A delegation from the FLNKS, including its president Christian Téin, was also in Paris for one week in mid-December and sought an interview with Macron.

It was envisaged to request an appointment with Macron in order to “clarify the framework, the objectives and the method for a possible resumption of talks” and “go back on the right track”.

But the meeting did not eventuate.

New Caledonia’s recovery
New Caledonia was engulfed in civil unrest in May 2024, following a series of protests staged by a “Field Actions Coordinating Cell” set up a few months earlier by Union Calédonienne (UC), the main remaining component of FLNKS.

The ensuing riots, burning and looting led to the death of 14 people, more than 2 billion euros (NZ$4 billion) of damage, thousands left jobless and a drop of 13.5 percent in the French territory’s GDP.

During the Paris talks on Friday, a significant part is also scheduled to focus on New Caledonia’s economic recovery and French assistance.

In December, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu mooted a plan totalling more than 2 billion euros over a five-year period to help the French Pacific territory’s recovery.

But the plan would also involve, beyond five years, that France should cease funding areas and powers that had already been transferred to local authorities over the past 20 years, under the previous 1998 Nouméa autonomy Accord.

Meanwhile, the French assistance plans cannot yet be translated into actions: they largely depend on passing the 2026 appropriation (budget) Bill, which has not been endorsed yet by a divided French Parliament with no clear majority.

There is also a recurrent backdrop of no confidence motions and — this week again — the spectre of a possible dissolution of the National Assembly to try and solve the current deadlock.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

REVIEW: By Amit Sarwal of The Australia Today

Forty years after the bombing of the Greenpeace flagship Rainbow Warrior in Auckland Harbour, award-winning journalist and author David Robie has revisited the ship’s fateful last mission — a journey that became a defining chapter in New Zealand’s identity as a nuclear-free nation.

Robie’s newly updated book, Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, is both a historical record and a contemporary warning.

It captures the courage of those who stood up to nuclear colonialism in the Pacific and draws striking parallels with the existential challenges the region now faces — from climate change to renewed geopolitical tensions.

“The new edition has a completely new 40-page section covering the last decade and the transition in global emphasis from ‘nuclear to climate crisis survivors’, plus new exposés about the French spy ‘blunderwatergate’. Ironically, the nuclear risks have also returned to the fore again,” Robie told The Australia Today.

“The book deals with a lot of critical issues impacting on the Pacific, and is expanded a lot and quite different from the last edition in 2015.”

In May 1985, the Rainbow Warrior embarked on a humanitarian mission unlike any before it. The crew helped 320 Rongelap Islanders relocate to a safer island after decades of radioactive contamination from US nuclear testing at Bikini and Enewetak atolls.

Robie, who joined the ship in Hawai’i as a journalist, recalls the deep humanity of that voyage.

Humanitarian voyage
“The fact that this was a humanitarian voyage . . .  helping the people of Rongelap in the Marshall Islands, it was going to be quite momentous,” he told Pacific Media Network News.

“It’s incredible for an island community where the land is so much part of their existence, their spirituality and their ethos.”

The relocation was both heartbreaking and historic. Islanders dismantled their homes over three days, leaving behind everything except their white-stone church.

“I remember one older woman sitting on the deck among the remnants of their homes,” Robie recalls.

“That image has never left me.”

Their ship’s banner, Nuclear Free Pacific, fluttered as both a declaration and a demand. The Rainbow Warrior became a symbol of Pacific solidarity, linking environmentalism with human rights in a region scarred by the atomic age.

On 10 July 1985, the Rainbow Warrior was docked at Auckland’s Marsden Wharf when two underwater bombs tore through its hull. The explosions, planted by French secret agents, sank the vessel and killed Portuguese-Dutch photographer Fernando Pereira.

Bombing shockwaves
The bombing sent shockwaves through New Zealand and the world. When French Prime Minister Laurent Fabius finally admitted that his country’s intelligence service had carried out the attack, outrage turned to defiance. New Zealand’s resolve to remain nuclear-free only strengthened.

Former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark contributes a new prologue to the 40th anniversary edition, reflecting on the meaning of the bombing and the enduring relevance of the country’s nuclear-free stance.

“The bombing of the Rainbow Warrior and the death of Fernando Pereira was both a tragic and a seminal moment in the long campaign for a nuclear-free Pacific,” she writes.

“It was so startling that many of us still remember where we were when the news came through.”

Clark warns that history’s lessons are being forgotten. “Australia’s decision to enter a nuclear submarine purchase programme with the United States is one of those storm clouds gathering,” she writes.

“New Zealand should be a voice for de-escalation, not for enthusiastic expansion of nuclear submarine fleets in the Pacific.”

Clark’s message in the prologue is clear: the values that shaped New Zealand’s independent foreign policy in the 1980s — diplomacy, peace and disarmament — must not be abandoned in the face of modern power politics.

Geopolitical threats
Robie adds that the book also explores “the geopolitical threats to the region with unresolved independence issues, such as the West Papuan self-determination struggle in Melanesia.”

Clark’s call to action, Robie told The Australia Today, resonates with the Pacific’s broader fight for justice.

“She warns against AUKUS and calls for the country to ‘link with the many small and middle powers across regions who have a vision for a world characterised by solidarity and peace, which can rise to the occasion to combat the existential challenges it faces — including of nuclear weapons, climate change, and artificial intelligence.’”

When Eyes of Fire was first published, it instantly became a rallying point for young activists and journalists across the Pacific. Robie’s reporting — which earned him New Zealand’s Media Peace Prize 40 years ago — revealed the human toll of nuclear testing and state-sponsored secrecy.

Today, his new edition reframes that struggle within the context of climate change, which he describes as “the new existential crisis for Pacific peoples.” He sees the same forces of denial, delay, and power imbalance at play.

“This whole renewal of climate denialism, refusal by major states to realise that the solutions are incredibly urgent, and the United States up until recently was an important part of that whole process about facing up to the climate crisis,” Robie says.

“It’s even more important now for activism, and also for the smaller countries that are reasonably progressive, to take the lead.”

For Robie, Eyes of Fire is not just a history book — it’s a call to conscience.

“I hope it helps to inspire others, especially younger people, to get out there and really take action,” he says.

“The future is in your hands.”

The Rainbow Warrior returned to Aotearoa in July to mark the 40th anniversary of the bombing. Forty years on, the story of the Rainbow Warrior continues to burn — not as a relic of the past, but as a beacon for the Pacific’s future through Robie’s Eyes of Fire.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The global civil society alliance Civicus has called on eight Pacific governments to do more to respect civic freedoms and strengthen institutions to protect these rights.

It is especially concerned over the threats to press freedom, the use of laws to criminalise online expression, and failure to establish national human rights institutions or ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR).

But it also says that the Pacific status is generally positive.

Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Samoa and Solomon Islands have been singled out for criticism over press freedom concerns, but the brief published by the Civicus Monitor also examines the civic spce in Fiji, Kiribati, Tonga and Vanuatu.

“There have been incidents of harassment, intimidation and dismissal of journalists in retaliation for their work,” the report said.

“Cases of censorship have also been reported, along with denial of access, exclusion of journalists from government events and refusal of visas to foreign journalists.”

The Civicus report focuses on respect for and limitations to the freedoms of association, expression and peaceful assembly, which are fundamental to the exercise of civic rights.

Freedoms guaranteed
“These freedoms are guaranteed in the national constitutions of all eight countries as well as in the ICCPR.

“In several countries — including Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, PNG and Samoa — the absence of freedom of information laws makes it extremely difficult for journalists and the public to access official information,” the report said.

Countries such as Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu, continued to enforce criminal defamation laws, creating a “chilling environment for the media, human rights defenders and anyone seeking to express themselves or criticise governments”.

In recent years, Fiji, PNG and Samoa had also used cybercrime laws to criminalise online expression.

“Governments in the Pacific must do more to protect press freedom and ensure that journalists can work freely and without fear of retribution for expressing critical opinions or covering topics the government may find sensitive,” said Josef Benedict, Civicus Asia Pacific researcher.

“They must also pass freedom of information legislation and remove criminal defamation provisions in law so that they are not used to criminalise expression both off and online.”

Civicus is concerned that at least four countries – Kiribati, Nauru, Solomon Islands and Tonga – have yet to ratify the ICCPR, which imposes obligations on states to respect and protect civic freedoms.

Lacking human rights bodies
Also, four countries — Kiribati, Nauru, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu — lack national human rights institutions (NHRI).

Fiji was criticised over restricting the right to peaceful assembly over protests about genocide and human rights violations in Palestine and West Papua.

In May 2024, “a truckload of police officers, including two patrol cars, turned up at a protest at the premises of the Fiji Women’s Crisis Centre against human rights violations in Gaza and West Papua, in an apparent effort to intimidate protesters”.

Gatherings and vigils had been organised regularly each Thursday.

In PNG and Tonga, the Office of the Ombudsman plays monitor and responds to human rights issues, but calls remain for establishing an independent body in line with the Paris Principles, which set international standards for national human rights institutions.

“It is time all Pacific countries ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and ensure its laws are consistent with it,” said Benedict.

“Governments must also to establish national human rights institutions to ensure effective monitoring and reporting on human rights issues. This will also allow for better accountability for violations of civic freedoms.”

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A rift within New Caledonia’s pro-independence movement has further widened after the second component of the “moderates”, the UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia), has officially announced it has now left the once united Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS).

The UPM announcement, at a press conference in Nouméa, comes only five days after the PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party), another moderate pro-independence group, also made official it was splitting from the FLNKS.

It was in line with resolutions taken at the party’s Congress held at the weekend.

Both groups have invoked similar reasons for the move.

UPM leader Victor Tutugoro told local media on Wednesday his party found it increasingly “difficult to exist today within the [FLNKS] pro-independence movement, part of which has now widely radicalised through outrage and threats”.

He said both his party and PALIKA did not recognise themselves anymore in the FLNKS’s increasingly “violent operating mode”.

Tutugoro recalled that since August 2024, UPM had not taken part in the operation of the “new FLNKS” [including its political bureau] because it did not accept its “forceful ways” under the increasing domination of Union Calédonienne, especially the recruitment of new “nationalist” factions and the appointment of CCAT leader and UC political commissar Christian Téin as its new President,.

Téin was arrested in June 2024 for alleged criminal-related charges before and during the May 2024 riots and then flown to mainland France.

After one year in jail in Mulhouse (North-east of France), his pre-trial conditions were released and in October 2025, he was eventually authorised to return to New Caledonia, where he should be back in the next few days.

Téin and a “Collectif Solidarité Kanaky 18” however announced Téin was to hold a public meeting themed “Which way for the Decolonisation of Kanaky-New Caledonia?” on 22 November 2025 in the small French city of Bourges, local media reported.

“This will be his last public address before he returns to New Caledonia,” said organisers.

Tutugoro says things worsened since the negotiations that led to the signing of a Bougival agreement, in July 2025, from which FLNKS pulled out in August 2025, denouncing what they described as a “lure of independence”.

“This agreement now separates us from the new FLNKS. And this is another reason for us to say we have nothing left to do [with them],” said Tutugoro.

UPM recalls it was a founding member of the FLNKS in 1984.

UPM, PALIKA founding members of FLNKS 41 years ago
On November 14, the PALIKA [Kanak Liberation Party] revealed the outcome of its 50th Congress held six days earlier, which now makes official its withdrawal from the FLNKS (a platform it was part of since the FLNKS was set up in 1984).

It originally comprised PALIKA, UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia), Union Calédonienne (UC) and Wallisian-based Rassemblement démocratique océanien (RDO).

PALIKA said it had decided to formally split from FLNKS because it disagreed with the FLNKS approach since the May 2024 riots.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

French minister for overseas Naïma Moutchou left New Caledonia at the weekend after a 5-day stay, with an announcement regarding a re-scheduled referendum-like consultation on a project for the French Pacific territory’s political future — but few pledges regarding further French commitment to tackle a dire financial situation.

Her visit also coincided with another formal announcement from one major “moderate” component of the pro-independence movement to officialise an already existing split with the now hard-line FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front).

On Friday, November 14, the PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) revealed the outcome of its 50th Congress held six days earlier, which now makes official its withdrawal from the FLNKS (a platform it was part of since the FLNKS was set up in 1984).

It originally comprised PALIKA, UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia), Union Calédonienne (UC) and Wallisian-based Rassemblement démocratique océanien (RDO).

The PALIKA said it decided to formally split from FLNKS because it had disagreed with the FLNKS approach since the May 2024 riots.

Since the announcement on Friday, PALIKA spokesman Charles Washetine told several local media his party was still supporting a project of “full sovereignty” with France, through negotiation and dialogue.

But “it’s certainly not through destruction that we will build something for our children”, he stressed.

He admitted the Bougival text was “perfectible”.

Distanced from FLNKS
At the time, especially after the FLNKS Congress held in August 2024, two of its significant components, PALIKA and UPM had already distanced itself from the FLNKS and the CCAT,  saying it “did not recognise itself”.

The CCAT (Field Action Coordinating Cell) is a group that was then tasked to organise protests against a planned Constitutional change that later degenerated into the riots claimed the lives of 14 people.

At its August 2024 Congress, at which neither PALIKA nor UPM took part, FLNKS also resolved that such “mobilisation tools” as CCAT and several other groups, were officially accepted into the party’s fold.

Christian Téin, who was at the time the CCAT leader, was also elected president of the FLNKS in absentia.

He had been arrested two months earlier and flown to Paris, where he served one year behind bars before judges ruled he could be released, pending his trial at a yet undetermined date.

He is still facing crime-related charges in relation to his alleged role during the May 2024 riots.

UPM held its congress at the weekend and it is widely believed it will make similar announcements regarding its formal withdrawal from FLNKS.

‘I’m not interfering’
“I’m not interfering in local politics, but PALIKA has been a major player in terms of dialogue, forever . . .  What matters to me is to know who my interlocutors are,” Moutchou said on PALIKA’s split from FLNKS.

She noted however that in its latest communiqué, FLNKS had still expressed the wish to pursue dialogue.

“But they are rejecting the Bougival agreement, they’re rejecting it in block. They just don’t want to talk on this basis. So the door should stay open.”

During talks with the French minister last week, most of the topics revolved around the so-called Bougival political compromise that resulted in the signing, on July 12 of a document, initially by all political parties, under the auspices of former French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls.

The Bougival text envisages the creation of a “State of New Caledonia”, its collateral “New Caledonian Nationality” and the transfer of a number of French key powers (such as foreign affairs) to the Pacific territory.

But FLNKS, on August 9, formally rejected the text, saying their negotiators’ signatures were now null and void because the text was regarded as a “lure of independence” and that it did not satisfy the party’s demands in terms of short-term full sovereignty.

Since then, as part of a new cabinet let by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Manuel Valls was replaced in October by Naïma Moutchou.

FLNKS urged to rejoin negotiation
In this capacity, she travelled to New Caledonia for the first time, saying she did not want to “do without FLNKS”, provided FLNKS did not want to “do without the other (parties)”.

Parties supporting the Bougival document have also urged FLNKS to re-join the negotiating process, even if this means the original July 2025 document has to be modified according to their demands.

During her stay last week, separate meetings (locally described as “bilateral”) were held with every political force in New Caledonia, including FLNKS, and other pro-independence movements (such as the PALIKA and the UPM, regarded as “moderates”), but also the pro-France parties (such as Les Loyalistes, Rassemblement-LR, Calédonie Ensemble and Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien).

The FLNKS declined to join a final roundtable with other political stakeholders on Thursday and Friday last week, saying it was not mandated to negotiate.

True to her approach of “listening first and replying after”, Moutchou refrained from making any comment or announcement during the first three days of her mission.

De facto referendum now comes first
But as she prepared to leave on Friday, she spoke to announce that the project of a “citizen’s consultation” (a de facto referendum) would take place sometime in February 2026 to ask the local population whether they supported the Bougival document’s implementation.

The consultation was already in the pipeline as part of the Bougival document, but it was originally planned to happen after a Constitutional review purposed to incorporate the text, ideally before the end of 2025.

But the Constitutional process, which would require the approval of votes from both the French Senate (Upper House) and National Assembly (Lower House), was delayed by instability in the French politic, including the demise of former Prime Minister François Bayrou and the subsequent advent of his successor Sébastien Lecornu.

On Friday, Moutchou also issued a brief communiqué saying that “pro-Bougival” parties had agreed to confirm their support in the implementation of the text and to “hold an anticipated citizens’ consultation”.

“We’re going to ask New Caledonians for their opinion first. This will give more power to what is being discussed”, she told public broadcaster NC la 1ère last Friday.

She said this was to “give back New Caledonians their voice in a moment of tension, because we indeed are in a moment of tension, when political choices are not always understood”.

In a media statement released the same day, the FLNKS reiterates its stance, saying “the so-called Bougival project cannot constitute a working base because it goes against (New Caledonia’s) decolonisation process”.

‘Written in black and white’
“It’s written in black and white in the Bougival agreement project: the decolonisation process goes on”, Moutchou told local media.

The party also warns against “any attempt of forceful passage (passage en force) risks bringing the country to a situation of durable instability”.

In terms of security, Moutchou said “to be very clear, it will be zero tolerance”.

“Security forces will stay as long as needed. We currently have 20 gendarmerie squadrons (more than 2500 personnel). This is 20 out of the 120 squads available for the whole of France”, she told NC la 1ère.

“I’m very attached to the authority of the State. There are rules and they must be respected. You can demonstrate, you can say you don’t agree. But you don’t cross the red line,” she told Radio Rythme Bleu on Friday.

The FLNKS said during the minister’s visit, they had handed over a project for a “framework agreement” that would serve as a basis for “future discussions”.

Favourable reaction
On the pro-France side, several leaders have reacted favourably to Moutchou’s parting release.

“The minister’s visit concludes on a positive note”, Rassemblement-LR leader Virginie Ruffenach wrote on social networks, saying this citizen consultation project will “turn New Caledonians into judges of peace”.

“At this stage, FLNKS does not seem to want to find an agreement with the (French) State and New Caledonia’s political forces. The other forces have therefore made the choice to submit the Bougival agreement to New Caledonians before the (French) Parliament approves a Constitutional Bill”, wrote Les Loyalistes leader Sonia Backès.

However, it remains unclear on what basis this de facto local referendum will be held in terms of electoral role and who will be qualified to vote.

No new economic pledge
In the brief communiqué on Friday last week, a “plan to re-launch New Caledonia’s economy” to “address the challenges” is also mentioned as one of the agreed goals.

But there was no announcement regarding further financial assistance from France to salvage New Caledonia’s economy, still bearing the consequences of the May 2024 insurrectional riots and that has caused material losses of over 2 billion euros (about NZ$4 billion), an estimated drop of 13.5 percent of its GDP and thousands of unemployed.

There are also increasingly strident calls to convert the 1 billion euro French loan (bringing New Caledonia to an estimated 360 percent indebtedness rate regarded as “unbearable”) into a grant.

Moutchou said this was currently “not on the agenda”.

The crucial mining industry, which was already suffering industrial issues even before the May 2024 riots, compounded with emerging regional competition, needed to be re-structured in order to overhaul its business model and production costs, she said.

‘We don’t have the financial means to build the new prison’
A 500 million euro project to build a new prison, initially announced in early 2024 for scheduled completion in 2032, will no longer take place, despite numerous condemnations due to the appalling living conditions for prisoners in the current Camp Est prison complex in Nouméa.

The Camp Est suffers an overpopulation ratio of 140 percent.

“I’m not going to tell you stories, in the current (French) budgetary conditions, we don’t have the financial means to build the new prison”, she told NC la 1ère.

Instead, it was now envisaged to set a semi-freedom centre for host inmates serving moderate jail sentences, thus relieving the overcrowded Camp Est premises of an estimated one hundred people.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou’s first visit to New Caledonia is marked by marathon political talks and growing concerns about the French Pacific territory’s deteriorating economic situation.

Moutchou arrived on Monday on a visit scheduled to last until tomorrow.

With a backdrop of political uncertainty and the economic consequences of the May 2024 riots, she has been meeting with a large panel of political and economic stakeholders over concerns about New Caledonia’s future.

On Monday, she met a group of about 40 political, business and economic leaders.

All of them voiced their concerns about New Caledonia’s short-term future and what they term as a “lack of visibility” and fear about what 2026 could hold.

Some of these fears are related to a lack of financial support necessary for a proper recovery of the local economy, which was devastated by the 2024 riots and caused damages of over 2 billion euros (NZ$4 million) with an estimated drop of the local GDP by 13.5 percent, the destruction of hundreds of businesses and the subsequent loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

The French government last year unlocked a special loan of 1 billion euros, but it will now have to be reimbursed and has created a huge debt for the French Pacific archipelago.

Huge loan issue
A vast majority of economic and political leaders now seem to agree that the huge loan granted in 2024 should be converted into a non-refundable grant.

New Caledonia’s indebtedness rate, as a result, soared to 360 percent for debts that will have to be refunded as early as 2026, at a high interest rate of 4.54 percent.

“The urgency is about finding jobs for those 12,000 people who have lost their jobs”, employers’ association MEDEF-NC vice president Bertrand Courte told reporters after the meeting.

“We need to kick-start the economy with large-scale works and only the French State can do it”, he said, echoing a feeling of disappointment.

The fears are further compounded by looming deadlines such as the local retirement scheme, which is threatening to collapse.

A special scheme to assist the unemployed, which was extended from 2024, is also to come to an end in December 2025. There are pleas to extend it once again at least until June 2026.

“We do understand that now, from France’s point of view, it’s a give and take situation”, said Medium and Small Businesses president Christophe Dantieux.

Public spending cuts
“[France] will only give if we make more efforts in terms of reforms. But there have already been quite a few efforts made in 2025, especially 15 percent cuts on public spending, but it looks like it’s not enough.”

One of the scheduled large-scale projects was the construction of a new prison, which was announced in 2023 but has not started.

On the macro-economic scale, New Caledonia is also facing several crucial challenges.

Huge losses in terms of tax collection have been estimated to a staggering US$600 million, as well as a deficit of some US$500 million in public accounts.

Another obstacle to boosting investments or re-investments, since the 2024 riots, was that most insurance companies are continuing to exclude a “riots risk” clause in their new policies.

On the French national level, the much-disputed 2026 Budget for Overseas is scheduled to take place starting November 18 and this also includes threats such as the intention to scrap tax exemption benefits for French companies intending to invest in France’s overseas territories, including New Caledonia.

“There is an economic, financial and budget urgency”, New Caledonia government President Alcide Ponga said following the minister’s meeting with the whole Cabinet.

“The minister is well aware that our budget situation is catastrophic and she intends to help us”, Congress (Parliament) President Veylma Falaeo said after her meeting with Moutchou.

Yohann Lecourieux, mayor of the city of Dumbéa (near the capital Nouméa), also provided a telling example of the current hardships faced by the population: “Eight hundred of our students no longer eat in our schools’ canteens simply because the families can no longer afford to pay.”

Political talks: no immediate outcome
On Tuesday, Moutchou focused on political talks with all parties on the local chessboard, one after the other.

The major challenge was to resume political discussions after one of the major components of the pro-independence movement, the FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front), mainly dominated by historic Union Calédonienne, decided to withdraw from a proposed consensual project signed in July 2025 in Bougival (in the outskirts of Paris) after a week-long session of intense talks fostered by Moutchou predecessor, Manuel Valls.

The Bougival text was proposing to create a “State of New Caledonia”, as well as a New Caledonian nationality and transfer of key powers (such as foreign affairs) from France.

Since FLNKS denounced its negotiators’ signatures, all of New Caledonia’s other parties have committed to defend the Bougival text, while at the same time urging FLNKS to come back to the table and possibly submit their desired modifications.

Since she was appointed to the sensitive portfolio last month, Moutchou, in Paris repeated that she did not intend to “do without” FLNKS, as long as FLNKS did not intend to “do without the other (parties)”.

Moutchou also said her approach was “listen first and then reply”.

Following a two-hour meeting on Tuesday between Moutchou and the FLNKS delegation, it maintained its stance and commitment to “sincere dialogue” based on a “clear discussion and negotiation method”.

‘We will not change course’ – FLNKS
“We will not change course. This is a first contact to remind of the defiance and loss of trust from FLNKS with the [French] State since December 2021,” FLNKS spokesperson Dominique Fochi said.

He said the FLNKS still “wishes out of the French Republic’s fold in order to create solid ties with countries of the region or even with France”.

Saying the Bougival text was a “lure of independence”, FLNKS had previously also posed a pre-requirement that future negotiations should be held in New Caledonia and placed under the auspices of the United Nations, in a spirit of decolonisation.

Late October 2025, both Houses of the French Parliament endorsed, for the third time, that New Caledonia’s crucial provincial local elections (scheduled to be held before December 2025) should now take place no later than June 2026.

The postponement was validated by France’s Constitutional Council on November 6.

This was specifically designed to allow more time for political talks to produce a consensual agreement on New Caledonia’s political future, possibly a continuation or refining (by way of amendments) of the Bougival text.

Pro-France parties
On the side of parties who want New Caledonia to remain part of France (and are opposed to independence), Les Loyalistes leader and Southern Province President Sonia Backès, said she and other pro-France parties also remained open to further discussions.

“But we’ve already made a lot of concessions in the Bougival agreement”, she said.

“[Moutchou] now has understood that New Caledonia is out of breath and that we now have to move forward, especially politically”, Rassemblement-LR leader Virginie Ruffenach said after talks with the French minister.

“We can no longer procrastinate, or else New Caledonia will not recover if we don’t have an agreement that carries prospects for all of our territory’s population,” Ruffenach said.

“We are still hopeful that, by the end of this week, we can move forward and find a way… But this cannot be the theory of chaos that’s being imposed on us.”

The ‘moderate’ pro-independence parties
Two former pillars of FLNKS, now described as “moderates” within the pro-independence movement, the PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia), who have distanced themselves from FLNKS since August 2024, after the riots, are now staunch supporters of the Bougival project.

“We are committed to (the Bougival) accord… Our militants said some improvements could be made. That’s what we told the minister and she said yes”, UNI Congress caucus president Jean-Pierre Djaïwé told local media after discussions with Moutchou.

He said those possible amendments could touch on the short-term handing over of a number of powers by France, but that this should not affect the Bougival project’s fragile “general balance”.

They say the text, although not perfect because it is a compromise, still makes full sovereignty achievable.

PALIKA held its important annual congress over the weekend and says it will announce its main outcomes later this week.

A strong faction within PALIKA is currently pushing for the “moderate” line (as opposed to the hard-line FLNKS) to be pursued and therefore a formal divorce with FLNKS should be made official.

On the “pro-Bougival” side, currently re-grouping all pro-France parties and the pro-independence moderates PALIKA and UPM, grouped into a “UNI” (Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance) caucus at the local Congress, some of the mooted possible future options could be to place all bets on the local referendum to be held early 2026 and its possible outcome pronouncing a vast majority for the July 2025 text.

They believe, based on the current party representation at the Congress, that this Bougival text could gather between 60 and 80 percent of local support.

Another party, Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien and its vice-president Milakulo Tukumuli told public broadcaster NC la 1ère on Sunday another option could be to just “agree to disagree” and base the rest of future developments on the outcomes of New Caledonia’s provincial elections.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A Pacific people’s mission to Kanaky New Caledonia was repeatedly confronted with a “profound sense of distrust” in the French state’s role in the decolonisation process, a new report released this week has revealed.

“This scepticism, articulated by Kanak representatives, is rooted in the belief that France is not a neutral arbiter but a key actor in perpetuating the conflict,” said the mission, which concluded that the French management of the territory continued to undermine the Kanak right to self-determination and breached international commitments on decolonisation.

As one speaker cited in the report explained:”France is acting like a referee, but instead they are the main perpetrator.”

The mission — led by the Pacific Network on Globalisation (PANG), the Pacific Conference of Churches (PCC) and the Protestant Church of Kanaky New Caledonia (Église protestante de Kanaky Nouvelle-Calédonie, EPKNC) — was conducted on April 10-19 this year following invitations from customary and church leaders.

Its findings, released last Wednesday by PANG, reveal persistent inequality, systemic discrimination, and political interference under the French administration. The report said that France’s role in Kanaky’s long-delayed decolonisation process had deepened mistrust and weakened the foundations of self-rule.

“The Pacific Mission in Kanaky New Caledonia is a reminder of our Pasifika connection with our families across the sea,” said Pastor Billy Wetewea of the EPKNC.

“It shows that we never exist alone but because of others, and that we are all linked to a common destiny. The journey of the Kanak people toward self-determination is a journey shared by every people in our region still striving to define their own future.”

The delegation included Anna Naupa (Vanuatu — the mission head), Lopeti Senituli (Tonga), Dr David Small (Aotearoa New Zealand), Emele Duituturaga-Jale (Fiji), with secretariat support by PANG and Kanak partners.

The team met community leaders, churches, women’s groups and youth networks across several provinces to document how the effects of French rule continue to shape Kanaky’s political, economic and social life.

Key findings
The Pacific Peoples’ Mission Report identifies four main areas of concern:

• France is not a neutral actor in the transition to independence. The state continues to breach commitments made under the Accords through election delays, political interference and the transfer of Kanak leaders to prisons in mainland France.
• Widening socio-economic inequality. Land ownership, employment, and access to public resources remain heavily imbalanced. The 2024 unrest destroyed more than 800 businesses and left 20,000 people unemployed.
• A health system in decline. About 20 percent of medical professionals left after the 2024 crisis, leaving rural hospitals and clinics under-resourced and understaffed.
• Systemic bias in the justice system. Kanak youth now make up more than 80 percent of the prison population, a reflection of structural discrimination and the criminalisation of dissent.

Kanak writer and activist Roselyne Makalu said the report documented the lived experiences of her people.

“This support is fundamental because, as the Pacific family, we form one single entity united by a common destiny,” she said.

“The publication of this report, which constitutes factual evidence of human-rights violations and the denial of the Kanak people’s right to decide their future, comes at the very moment the French National Assembly has voted, against popular opinion, to postpone the provincial elections.

“This Parisian decision is nothing short of a blatant new attack on the voice of the Caledonian people, intensifying the political deadlock.”

Tongan law practitioner and former president of the Tonga Law Society, Lopeti Senituli, who was a member of the mission, said the findings confirmed a deliberate system of control, adding that “the deep inequalities faced by Kanak people — from land loss and economic marginalisation to mass incarceration — are not accidents of history”.

“They are the direct outcomes of a system designed to keep Kanaky dependent,” he added.

‘Politics of revenge’
Head of mission Anna Naupa said France could not act as both referee and participant in the decolonisation process.

“Its repeated breaches, political interference and disregard for Kanak rights expose a system built to protect colonial interests, not people,” she said.

“The mission called for immediate action — the release of political prisoners, fair provincial elections, and a Pacific-led mediation process to restore trust and place Kanaky firmly on the path to self-determination and justice.”

The mission also confirmed that the May 2024 crisis was an uprising by those most affected by France’s flawed governance and economic model.

It described France’s post-crisis policies — including scholarship withdrawals, fare increases, and relocation of public services — as “politics of revenge” that had further harmed Kanak and Oceanian communities.

Recommendations
The mission calls for:
• Free and fair provincial elections under neutral international observation;
• A new round of negotiations to be held to find a new political agreement post Nouméa Accord; and
• Pacific-led mediation through the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) and the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).

The report further urges Pacific governments to ensure Kanaky remains on the United Nations list of Non-Self-Governing Territories and to revitalise regional solidarity mechanisms supporting self-determination and justice.

“The world is already in the fourth international decade of decolonisation,” the report concludes.

“Self-determination is an inalienable right of colonised peoples. Decolonisation is a universal issue — not a French internal matter.”

• The full report, Pacific Peoples’ Mission to Kanaky New Caledonia, is available here through the Pacific Network on Globalisation.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Newly appointed French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou has now rescheduled her first visit to New Caledonia, which was postponed last week due to urgent budget talks in Paris.

In the latest version of her schedule for next week, Moutchou now has earmarked the date November 8 as her take-off for the French Pacific territory.

Taking into account the duration of her trip, local political sources have refined her travel dates from 10 to 14 November 2025.

The visit was initially scheduled from 3 to 7 November 2025, with high on the agenda a resumption of talks regarding New Caledonia’s institutional and political future.

According to her initial detailed schedule, she was supposed to hold a series of political meetings with all stakeholders, as well as visits on the ground.

As French Parliament last week endorsed an “organic” bill to postpone New Caledonia’s provincial elections (originally scheduled to be held not later than 30 November 2025) to not later than 28 June 2026, one of the aims was to re-engage one of the main components of the pro-independence movement, the FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front).

In August, the FLNKS rejected the latest outcomes of political talks in Bougival, near Paris, which envisaged granting New Caledonia the status of “State” within the French realm, a dual “New Caledonian nationality” and the transfer of some key powers (such as foreign affairs) from Paris to Nouméa.

All of the other parties (both pro-France and pro-independence) agreed to commit to the Bougival text.

Bougival mentions removed
In the modified (and endorsed in the French Parliament) version of the text to postpone the key provincial elections, all previous mentions of the Bougival agreement were removed by the French Parliament.

This was described as a way of allowing “more time” for talks in New Caledonia to be both conclusive and inclusive, without rejecting any component of the political chessboard.

“We can’t do without the FLNKS. As long as the FLNKS does not want to do without the other (parties)”, Moutchou told Parliament last week.

The provincial elections in New Caledonia are crucial in the sense that they determine New Caledonia’s political structure with a trickle-down effect from members of the three provincial assemblies — North, South and the Loyalty Islands — and, proportionally, the make-up of the local Parliament (the Congress) and then, also proportionally to the makeup of the Congress, the local “collegial” government of the French Pacific territory.

Under the same proportional spirit, a president is elected and portfolios are then allocated.

As Moutchou’s earlier visit postponement has left many local politicians doubtful and perplexed, she reassured “New Caledonia remains at the heart” of France’s commitment.

Since he was elected Prime Minister in early September, Sébastien Lecornu also stressed several times that, even at the national level, New Caledonia’s pressing political issues were to be considered a matter of priority, in a post-May 2024 riot atmosphere which left 14 dead, hundreds of businesses destroyed, thousands of jobless, damage estimated to be in excess of 2 billion euros (NZ$4 million) and a drastic drop of its GDP to the tune of -13.5 percent.

Lecornu was Minister for French Overseas between 2020 and 2022.

Since the riots, the French government committed increased financial assistance to restore the ailing economy, including 1 billion euros in the form of a loan.

Controversial loan
But a growing portion of local parties is opposed to the notion of loan and wants, instead, this to be converted into a non-refundable grant.

“This is essential for our public finances, because when (France) lends us €1 billion, in fact we’ll have to repay 1.7 billion euros. New Caledonia just cannot bear that,” pro-France politician Nicolas Metzdorf told public broadcaster NC la 1ère on Sunday.

“But first, there will have to be a political agreement between New Caledonian politicians.”

France, on its side, is asking for more genuine reforms from the local government.

Even though all references to the Bougival agreement project were removed from the final text to postpone New Caledonia’s local elections to June 2026, if talks do resume, any future outcome, in the form of a “consensual” solution, could either be built on the same “agreement project”, or result from talks from scratch.

“So we’ll have to see whether we can find a way forward with FLNKS. If they come back to the table to discuss, let’s discuss”, Metzdorf commented on Sunday.

“But we’ll not start all over (negotiations). Bougival is the most advanced negotiation we’ve had until now. We just can’t wipe that out, we have to take it from there”, he said, adding the text can be further amended and rectified.

All of the political parties who have remained committed to the Bougival text (including pro-France parties, but also pro-independence “moderates” such as PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia) have since called on FLNKS to join back in the talks.

A new ‘super-minister’ for budget and finance
When she sets foot in New Caledonia, Moutchou will find a reshuffled government: on Wednesday, New Caledonia’s crucial portfolios of budget and finance have been reattributed to Christopher Gygès, making him the most powerful item in the local cabinet.

This followed the resignation of Thierry Santa last week. Santa was one of the key ministers in the local government.

On top of budget and finance, Gygès also keeps his previous portfolios of energy, digital affairs and investor “attractiveness”.

He remains in charge of other crucial sectors such as the economy.

“It may seem a lot, but it’s consistent”, Gygès, now regarded as a “super-minister” within the local government led by pro-France Alcide Ponga, told local media on Wednesday.

He will be the key person for any future economic talks with Paris, including on the sensitive 1 billion euro French loan issue and its possible conversion into a grant.

Even though Santa’s seat as government member was filled by Naïa Wateou (from Les Loyalistes [pro-France] party), New Caledonia’s collegial government on Wednesday re-allotted several portfolios.

In the eleven-member Cabinet, 41-year-old Wateou’s arrival now brings to two the number of female members/ministers.

She is now in charge of employment, labour (inherited from Gygès), public service, audiovisual media and handicap-challenged persons.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A People’s Mission to Kanaky New Caledonia says the French Pacific territory remains in a fragile political and social transition nearly three decades after the signing of the Nouméa Accord.

It says the pro-independence unrest in May last year has “left visible scars” — not only in a damaged economy but in trust between the territory’s institutions and the communities being served.

The mission is launching its report at a media event in the Fiji capital Suva tomorrow.

“France cannot act as both referee and participant in the decolonisation process. Its repeated breaches and political interference have eroded trust and prolonged Kanaky’s dependency,” said mission head Anna Naupa, a Pacific policy and development specialist, in a pre-launch statement.

“The Pacific must now take a principled stand to ensure the right to self-determination is fulfilled.”

The mission — organised by Pacific Network on Globalisation (PANG), Eglise Protestante de Kanaky Nouvelle-Calédonie (EPKNC) and the Pacific Conference of Churches (PCC) — said regional observers had noted that the situation now hinged on whether France and Pacific leaders could “re-establish credible dialogue” that genuinely included Kanak perspectives in shaping the territory’s future.

Five key findings
According to the report, the Pacific Peoples’ Mission to Kanaky New Caledonia had identified five interlinked findings that defined the current crisis:

• Political trust has collapsed. Communities no longer view the decolonisation process as impartial, citing France’s dual role as both administrator and arbiter;
• Reconciliation remains incomplete. Efforts to rebuild unity after the 2024 unrest are fragmented, with limited Kanak participation in recovery planning;
• Youth exclusion is fuelling instability. Young Kanaks describe frustration over limited education, employment, and representation opportunities;
• Economic recovery lacks equity. Reconstruction support has disproportionately benefited urban and non-Kanak areas, widening social divisions; and
• Regional leadership is missing. Pacific solidarity has weakened, leaving communities without consistent regional advocacy or oversight.

Together, said the mission, these findings underlined an urgent need for a renewed, Pacific-led dialogue that would restore confidence in the independence process and focus on  Kanak agency.

A New Zealand academic and activist who was part of the mission, Dr David Small, said: “What we witnessed in Kanaky is not instability; it is resistance born from decades of broken promises.

“The international community must stop treating this as an internal French matter and
recognise it for what it is — an unfinished decolonisation process.”

• The People’s Mission report will be launched at the Talanoa Lounge, Itaukei Trust Fund Board, Nasese, Suva, 3-5pm, Wednesday, November 4. More information.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New Caledonia’s tourism industry is hopeful for a rebound as Air New Zealand resumed its flights over the weekend.

To mark Air New Zealand’s return, on its social networks, Nouméa-La Tontouta international airport posted a vibrant “Welcome Back to New Caledonia Air New Zealand, we are happy to welcome you back on our tarmac”.

The much-awaited resumption comes almost 18 months after the scheduled flights were interrupted following grave civil unrest that broke out mid-May 2024.

Air New Zealand ceased flights between Auckland and Nouméa, the French territory’s capital, on 15 June 2024, at the height of violent civil unrest.

It said at the time that regarding New Caledonia, the New Zealand government still recommended to “exercise increased caution” (Level 2 of 4) due to the “ongoing risk of civil unrest”.

The riots resulted in 14 deaths, more than 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4 billion) in damage, thousands of businesses and jobs destroyed and a sharp drop in the French Pacific territory’s GDP (-13.5 percent), bringing its economy to its knees.

Tourism from its main regional source markets, namely Australia and New Zealand, also came to a standstill.

Numbers collapsed
On New Zealand arrivals, between the first quarters of 2024 and 2025, visitor numbers collapsed by 90 percent (from 1731 to 186).

Latest statistics published by local institute ISEE confirmed the sharp drop, for the first quarter of 2025 — only 9670 arrivals, a record drop of 62 percent compared to the previous year.

This is the worst volume observed for the past 30 years (not including the covid pandemic period).

New Caledonia’s tourism stakeholders have welcomed the resumption of the service to and from New Zealand, saying this will allow the industry to launch fresh, targeted promotional campaigns on the New Zealand market.

New Caledonia’s international carrier Air Calédonie International (Air Calin) is also operating two weekly flights to Auckland from the Nouméa-La Tontouta international airport, in code-sharing mode.

Local authorities were also placing high hopes in the other key source market of the region — Australia. New Caledonia’s stakeholders are planning to launch significant promotional campaigns.

“Air New Zealand is resuming its Auckland-Nouméa service starting 1 November 2025. Initially, flights will operate once a week on a Saturday. This follows the New Zealand government’s decision to update its safe travel advisory level for New Caledonia.

“The resumption of services reflects our commitment to reconnecting New Zealand and New Caledonia, ensuring that travel is safe and reliable for our customers. We will continue to monitor this route closely.

“Passengers are encouraged to check the latest safe travel advisory and Air New Zealand’s official channels for updates on flight schedules,” the company stated.

“Political tensions and civil unrest may increase at short notice. Avoid all demonstrations, protests, and rallies as they have the potential to turn violent with little warning.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz