The New Zealand government says it hopes an electrification aid project that was halted in Papua New Guinea can still be completed if security improves.

Work on the Enga Electrification Project in PNG’s Enga province has stopped due to ongoing violence around the project area in Tsak Valley.

New Zealand spent NZ$6.7 million over the last six years on the project which aimed to connect at least 4000 households to electricity.

It was part of combined efforts with the US, Australia and Japan to help 70 percent of PNG homes get connected by 2030, as agreed to in 208 when PNG hosted the APEC Leaders Summit.

However, contractors had to be withdrawn from the area after a surge in tribal fighting in August last year, according to a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

“Ending New Zealand’s involvement is a disappointing outcome, particularly given New Zealand’s longstanding and extensive efforts to deliver energy infrastructure in Enga Province,” the spokesperson said.

“New Zealand is working on a transition plan with partners in Papua New Guinea. It is hoped this will allow for the successful completion of the project if security improves.”

Northern lines installed
The ministry said 13.5 KM of distribution lines in the North of the project area were largely installed but were yet to be commissioned or connected to houses.

It said 12km of distribution lines in the south of the project area remained at various stages of construction.

Meanwhile, PNG’s Foreign Minster Justin Tkatchenko told local media that New Zealand would hand over equipment from the project to PNG Power Limited, a state-owned entity.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The chart above summarises Japan’s financial balance sheet since 1980. A wall of red below the line, and blue above. Additionally, a persistent ‘slice’ of green below the line, indicating that Japan – the country, not the government – is very much a creditor (ie saver) nation.

This red wall has been the norm for Japan, except for a brief period in the late 1980s and early 1990s when Japan had one of the world’s most spectacular financial bubbles and busts. Japan took a decade to get over that crisis, and in the process forged a new macroeconomics; a macroeconomics created ‘on the fly’ so to speak, and which substantially demonstrates the validity of modern monetary theory. (For Japan’s story of recovery, restoration and education, refer The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession 2009 by Richard Koo.)

The red wall shown in the chart is Japan’s monetary base. It functions in the monetary world much as gold was meant to function during the gold standard era. Japan is not starved of money, and Japan has inflation no higher than the rest of the most-economically-developed world. Its equivalent of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate is 0.5%; the highest it’s been for over ten years. (Contrast the OCR, which has come down from 5.5% to 3.0% in the last year-and-a-bit.)

Further Japan’s ratio of people over 60 to people under 60 reached ‘crisis levels’ at least a decade ago, yet Japan is still able to provide for – to afford – an older generation of healthy and happy retired people.

The wall of ‘red gold’ in the chart features in Japan’s national accounts as government debt. On the other side of Japan’s national balance sheet, that red wall becomes a blue wall; a blue wall which features as the principal store of private wealth in Japan. The red wall and the blue wall are the same wall; it’s simply ‘painted’ blue on one side and red on the other.

During 25 years of construction, that red wall grew to 250 percent of Japan’s GDP in 2020; to the equivalent of five trillion United States dollars. Since 2020, Japan’s government has continued to run substantial though diminishing deficits, adding to its red golden wall of public debt; though the growth in the wall since 2020 has been slower than the growth of Japan’s economy, meaning that Japan’s government debt has fallen to 237 percent of GDP.

(Among developed economies, after Japan the next biggest red walls are those of Singapore, Greece, Italy, and the United States. The Singaporean government effectively borrows internationally at very low interest rates (and in its own currency), thereby providing much of the funding for its much-vaunted sovereign wealth fund; and the United States’ wall of red gold is the de facto base of the global monetary system. The currencies of Singapore and Japan will be best placed to take over from the $US as world reserve currencies – because of, not despite, the level of public debt in those currencies – should any financial catastrophe befall the USA.)

Japan’s red gold is safer than yellow gold, because it is fully backed by the Japanese taxpayer; all governments have the sovereign right to claim taxes from their citizens. The purchasing power of Japan’s store of red gold is not contingent on the variability of the global market for yellow gold.

The Yellow-Gold Bug

Meanwhile, the world has become enamoured with yellow gold; you only have to look at the triffid-like growth of yellow bling in the White House in Washington DC. Likely the unsanctioned new ballroom replacing the East Wing of that presidential residence will soon enough house the world’s biggest display of yellow gold. Red gold drives the global economy forward, though – given the levels of inequality outside of Japan – into some nasty elite consumption spaces. Yellow gold drives the narcissists’ vanity, and is driven by the widespread fear of the middle classes – especially in the emerging and developing world – of global collapse.

Also meanwhile – just this week – Sudan has experienced another genocidal setback; see Massacre in el-Fasher: What’s happening in Sudan right now? and ‘A true genocide’: RSF kills ‘at least 1,500 people’ in Sudan’s el-Fasher, both Al Jazeera 29 October 2025. Many people will be wondering what it’s all about, though listening to mainstream news media won’t help very much. (We know that Sudan will continue to play a role in the world’s military armaments industry, both as a cynical testing ground for big boys’ toys and as a significant future supplier of the rare earth minerals needed to make those toys.) However, this piece from Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford gets close to the real truth: Sudan’s natural wealth becomes the new front line of its ongoing war, YouTube, 29 October 2025.

Sudan has produced truly massive amounts of gold bullion since the start of its ‘civil’ war; yellow gold which has been smuggled out by the genocidal ‘Rapid Support Forces’ under the patronage and tutelage of its megarich backers. ‘A true genocide’: RSF kills ‘at least 1,500 people’ in Sudan’s el-Fasher states: “Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye and Jordan have condemned the abuses committed by the RSF in Sudan”. Significantly missing from that list – and from the whole story that we do hear – is the UAE, the United Arab Emirates, reputed to be the RSF’s principal patron.

The Virtual-Gold Bug

Crypto-currencies seek to mimic gold, through an equally environmentally unsustainable process of ‘mining’. They have succeeded, becoming a speculative commodity par excellence. Indeed the First Family, in addition to its very overt and rather sickening displays of yellow gold, is reputed to have made nearly a billion dollar’s worth (Reuters) of acquisitions (and capital gains) of various cryptocurrency hoards. (And see this from the Australian ABC.)

New Zealand’s Opposition leader Chris Hipkins wants to make revenue from a capital gains tax on residential and commercial real estate (see this on Scoop). Yet, except for a brief bubble in 2021/22, there have been minimal capital gains on New Zealand land holdings since 2017; rather, capital losses have been the 2020s’ norm. Yet there are massive capital gains being made, in yellow and especially in virtual gold. Also, there are increasing claims that world sharemarkets are at unsustainable levels; see Awash with cash. How the investment world is feeding upon itself, ABC. Indeed, the ‘investor’-class is busier than ever, though not in real estate. Further, there is no clear reason why there should be a resumption of real estate bubbles anytime soon, given the abundance of alternatives.

These booms in real-gold and unreal-gold booms pose a major financial instability risk. Red-gold, on the other hand, can be the epitome of stability.

Conclusion

There is a form of ‘gold’ – invisible in the political chatter – which represents the backbone of the world’s monetary system. That’s red gold, and Japan is showing us the way, if we could only look and see. (There’s an ever-present fear that Japan will sooner or later snatch monetary defeat from the jaws of victory. And see this about “embarrassing antics in Tokyo“: I hope that Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi will not push too far her Mrs Thatcher reputation.)

Meanwhile, parts of the financial world are spinning out into some Lulu La La land, in the gargantuanly wasteful – and at times genocidal – pursuit of gold and virtual gold.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Eighty years after the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end the Second World War, the threat of nuclear fallout remains.

Last Monday, the UN Human Rights Council issued a formal communication to the Japanese government regarding serious concerns raised by Pacific communities about the dumping of 1.3 million metric tonnes of treated Fukushima nuclear wastewater into the ocean over 30 years.

The council warned that the release could pose major environmental and human rights risks.

Te Ao Māori News spoke with Mari Inoue, a NYC-based lawyer originally from Japan and co-founder of the volunteer-led group The Manhattan Project for a Nuclear-Free World.

Recently, at the UN, they called for global awareness, not only about atomic bomb victims but also of the Fukushima wastewater release, and nuclear energy’s links to environmental destruction and human rights abuses.

Formed a year after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the group takes its name from the original Manhattan Project — the secret Second World War  US military programme that raced to develop the first atomic bomb before Nazi Germany.

A pivotal moment in that project was the Trinity Test on July 16, 1945, in New Mexico — the first successful detonation of an atomic bomb. One month later, nuclear weapons were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing an estimated 110,000 to 210,000 people.

Seeking recognition and justice
Although 80 years have passed, victims of these events continue to seek recognition and justice. The disarmament group hopes for stronger global unity around the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and more support for victims of nuclear exposure.

The anti-nuclear activists supported the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which seeks to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Their advocacy took place during the third and final preparatory committee for the 2026 NPT review conference, where a consensus report with recommendations from past sessions will be presented.

Inoue’s group called on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to declare Japan’s dumping policy unsafe, and believes Japan and its G7 and EU allies should be condemned for supporting it.

Nuclear energy for the green transition?
Amid calls to move away from fossil fuels, some argue that nuclear power could supply the zero-emission energy needed to combat climate change.

Inoue rejects this, saying that despite not emitting greenhouse gases like fossil fuels, nuclear energy still harms the environment.

She said there was environmental harm at all processes in the nuclear supply chain.

Beginning with uranium mining, predominantly contaminating indigenous lands and water sources, with studies showing those communities face increased cancer rates, sickness, and infant mortality. And other studies have shown increased health issues for residents near nuclear reactors.

“Nuclear energy is not peaceful and it‘s not a solution to the climate crisis,” Inoue stressed. “Nuclear energy cannot function without exploiting peoples, their lands, and their resources.”

She also pointed out thermal pollution, where water heated during the nuclear plant cooling process is discharged into waterways, contributing to rising ocean temperatures.

Inoue added, “During the regular operation, [nuclear power plants] release radioactive isotopes into the environment — for example tritium.”

She referenced nuclear expert Dr Arjun Makhijani, who has studied the dangers of tritium in how it crosses the placenta, impacting embryos and foetuses with risks of birth defects, miscarriages, and other problems.

Increased tensions and world forum uniting global voices
When asked about the AUKUS security pact, Inoue expressed concern that it would worsen tensions in the Pacific. She criticised the use of a loophole that allowed nuclear-powered submarines in a nuclear-weapon-free zone, even though the nuclear fuel could still be repurposed for weapons.

In October, Inoue will co-organise the World Nuclear Victims Forum in Hiroshima, with 2024 Nobel Peace Prize winner Nihon Hidankyo as one of the promoting organisations.

The forum will feature people from Indigenous communities impacted by nuclear testing in the US and the Marshall Islands, uranium mining in Africa, and fisheries affected by nuclear pollution.

Republished from Te Ao Māori News with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The United States is advancing the fortification of its territory closest to China with the arrival of the first Marines from Okinawa and its first interceptor missile test in Guam last week.

About 100 Marines from Japan landed on Saturday, the vanguard of about 5000 due to be relocated to Guam under a security treaty with the US.

The US successfully downed one of its own unarmed ballistic missiles last Tuesday in what will be a regular occurrence in the territory over the next decade.

The milestones come as the House of Representatives last week also passed the 2025 National Defence Authorisation Act — with more than US$2 billion in spending for Guam — that now goes to the Senate for approval.

Nicknamed the “tip of the spear” due to its proximity to China, Guam is considered a potential target in any conflict between the two nations. The island has no bomb shelters and the unprecedented military build-up continues to divide residents.

“The intensity of the build-up is overwhelming for citizens and public agencies trying to keep track and respond to military plans as they unfold,” said Robert Underwood, chairman of the Guam-based Pacific Centre for Island Security.

“A master plan is needed for understanding by all concerned. One must exist and we are not privy to it,” he told BenarNews.

Lays the groundwork
The arrival of the first troops lays the groundwork for preparing Marine Corps Base Camp Blaz to receive thousands more.

“Relocations will take place in a phased approach, and no unit headquarters will be moving during this iteration,” a US Marine Corps press release said on Saturday.

“Forward presence and routine engagement with allies and partners are essential to the United States’ ability to deter attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion and respond to crises in the region, to include providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief when necessary,” the USMC said.

Japan will pay US$2.8 billion to fund some of the infrastructure projects on Naval Base Guam, Andersen Air Force Base and Camp Blaz.

The Missile Defence Agency last Tuesday tested its Aegis system, firing off an interceptor from Andersen Air Force to down an unarmed, medium-range ballistic missile more than 200 nautical miles north-east of Guam.

“The event marked a pivotal step taken in the defence of Guam and provides critical support to the overall concept for the future Guam defence system,” deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh said in a press briefing last Wednesday.

The launch was the first in a series of twice-yearly missile defence tests on Guam over the next 10 years.

16 sites planned
The US Indo-Pacific Command plans to build a missile defence system with 16 sites, touted to provide 360-degree protection for Guam.

The urgency was highlighted after China conducted a rare ballistic missile test with a dummy warhead in September. Its flight path crossed near Guam, Federated States of Micronesia and Marshall Islands before falling into the ocean in the vicinity of Kiribati.

In July, US military officials had announced that the first missile defence test was set to take place in Guam “by the end of the year,” but did not provide the exact date.

Nanette Reyes-Senior, a resident of Maina village, said she was “extremely surprised” that the MDA launched the flight test “without prior notice to the public — unless there was notice that I missed.”

Underwood has called for greater transparency about the missile defence of Guam.

“The missile testing had already been announced . . . but no specific week, let alone date was announced,” Underwood said.

With more tests to be launched in the coming years, Underwood said: “The general public should be given advanced notice and especially land owners.”

No significant impact
After public consultation earlier this year, the Missile Defence Agency decided the planned tests would not significantly impact humans or the natural environment.

President of the Pacific Association of Radiation Survivors Robert Celestial welcomed the US missile defense test.

“China had 23000 ballistic missiles, numerous ICBM missiles and 320 nuclear warheads. It is evident that we are preparing for war, so we should at least prepare to protect the civilian population from a nuclear attack,” he told BenarNews.

“Growing up in the 1960s we had duck-and-cover drills. I feel better prepared now than [to] suffer later.”

Guam is no stranger to war, being part of the Pacific campaign during World War II.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s visit to Guam earlier this month to strengthen ties has raised residents’ fears of the territory being further targeted in escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Shelly Vargas-Calvo, a senator-elect who will assume her seat in the Guam legislature next month, said the growing tensions in the region will take Guam into the path of war.

“I applaud the successful test launch,” she said. “It is imperative to show power and capability despite having a small footprint in the region to send a message that we and our allies are not to be messed around with.”

Republished from BenarNews with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

As the US election unfolds, American territories such as the Northern Marianas, American Samoa, and Guam, along with the broader Pacific region, will be watching the developments.

As the question hangs in the balance of whether the White House remains blue with Kamala Harris or turns red under Donald Trump, academics, New Zealand’s US ambassador, and Guam’s Congressman have weighed in on what the election means for the Pacific.

Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies senior lecturer Dr Anna Powles said it would no doubt have an impact on small island nations facing climate change and intensified geopolitics, including the rapid expansion of military presence on its territory Guam, following the launch of an interballistic missile by China.

Pacific leaders lament the very real security threat of climate-induced natural disasters has been overshadowed by the tug-of-war between China and the US in what academics say is “control and influence” for the contested region.

Dr Powles said it came as “no surprise” that countries such as New Zealand and Australia had increasingly aligned with the US, as the Biden administration had been leveraging strategic partnerships with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan since 2018.

Despite China being New Zealand’s largest trading partner, New Zealand is in the US camp and must pay attention, she said.

“We are not seeing enough in the public domain or discussion by government with the New Zealand public about what this means for New Zealand going forward.”

Pacific leaders welcome US engagement but are concerned about geopolitical rivalry.

Earlier this month, Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa attended the South Pacific Defence Ministers meeting in Auckland.

He said it was important that “peace and stability in the region” was “prioritised”.

Referencing the arms race between China and the US, he said, “The geopolitics occurring in our region is not welcomed by any of us in the Pacific Islands Forum.”

While a Pacific Zone of Peace has been a talking point by Fiji and the PIF leadership to reinforce the region’s “nuclear-free stance”, the US is working with Australia on obtaining nuclear-submarines through the AUKUS security pact.

Dr Powles said the potential for increased tensions “could happen under either president in areas such as Taiwan, East China Sea — irrespective of who is in Washington”.

South Pacific defence ministers told RNZ Pacific the best way to respond to threats of conflict and the potential threat of a nuclear attack in the region is to focus on defence and building stronger ties with its allies.

New Zealand’s Defence Minister said NZ was “very good friends with the United States”, with that friendship looking more friendly under the Biden Administration. But will this strengthening of ties and partnerships continue if Trump becomes President?

While both Trump and Harris may differ on critical issues for the Pacific such as the climate crisis and multilateralism, both see China as the primary external threat to US interests.

The US has made a concerted effort to step up its engagement with the Pacific in light of Chinese interest, including by reopening its embassies in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Tonga.

On 12 July 2022, the Biden administration showed just how keen it was to have a seat at the table by US Vice-President Kamala Harris dialing in to the Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Fiji at the invitation of the then chair former prime minister Voreqe Bainimarama. The US was the only PIF “dialogue partner” allowed to speak at this Forum.

However, most of the promises made to the Pacific have been “forward-looking” and leaders have told RNZ Pacific they want to see less talk and more real action.

Defence diplomacy has been booming since the 2022 Solomon Islands-China security deal. It tripled the amount of money requested from Congress for economic development and ocean resilience — up to US$60 million a year for 10 years — as well as a return of Peace Corps volunteers to Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu.

Health security was another critical area highlighted in 2024 the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Declaration.

The Democratic Party’s commitment to the World Health Organisation (WHO) bodes well, in contrast to the previous Trump administration’s withdrawal from the WHO during the covid-19 pandemic.

It continued a long-running programme called ‘The Academy for Women Entrepreneurs’ which gives enterprising women from more than 100 countries with the knowledge, networks and access they need to launch and scale successful businesses.

In September, China launched an intercontinental ballistic test missile in the Pacific for first time in 44 years, landing near French Polynesian waters.

It was seen as a signal of China’s missile capabilities which had the US and South Pacific Defence Ministers on edge and deeply “concerned”.

China’s Defence Ministry said in a statement the launch was part of routine training by the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, which oversees conventional and nuclear missile operations and was not aimed at any country or target.

The US has invested billions to build a 360-degree missile defence system on Guam with plans for missile tests twice a year over the next decade, as it looks to bolster its weaponry in competition with China.

Despite the arms race and increased military presence and weaponry on Guam, China is known to have fewer missiles than the US.

However, Guamanians are among the four million disenfranchised Americans living in US territories whose vote does not count due to an anomaly in US law.

“While territorial delegates can introduce bills and advocate for their territory in the US Congress, they have no voice on the floor. While Guam is exempted from paying the US federal income tax, many argue that such a waiver does not make up for what the tiny island brings to the table,” according to a BenarNews report.

US Congressman for Guam James Moylan has spent his time making friends and “educating and informing” other states about Guam’s existence in hopes to get increased funding and support for legislative bills.

Moylan said he would prefer a Trump presidency but noted he has “proved he can also work with Democrats”.

Under Trump, Moylan said Guam would have “stronger security”, raising his concerns over the need to stop Chinese fishing boats from coming onto the island.

Moylan also defended the military expansion: “We are not the aggressor. If we put our guard down, we need to be able to show we can maintain our land.”

Moylan defended the US military expansion, which his predecessor, former US Congressman Robert Underwood, was concerned about, saying the rate of expansion had not been seen since World War II.

“We are the closest there is to the Indo-Pacific threat,” Moylan said.

“We need to make sure our pathways, waterways and economy is growing, and we have a strong defence against our aggressors.”

“All likeminded democracies are concerned about the current leadership of China. We are working together…to work on security issues and prosperity issues,” US Ambassador to New Zealand Tom Udall said.

When asked about the military capabilities of the US and Guam, Moylan said: “We are not going to war; we are prepared to protect the homeland.”

Moylan said that discussions for compensation involving nuclear radiation survivors in Guam would happen regardless of who was elected.

The 23-year battle has been spearheaded by atomic veteran Robert Celestial, who is advocating for recognition for Chamorro and Guamanians under the RECA Act.

Celestial said that the Biden administration had thrown their support behind them, but progress was being stalled in Congress, which is predominantly controlled by the Republican party.

But Moylan insisted that the fight for compensation was not over. He said that discussions would continue after the election irrespective of who was in power.

“It’s been tabled. It’s happening. I had a discussion with Speaker Mike Johnson. We are working to pass this through,” he said.

There are also views Trump would pull back from the Pacific and focus on internal matters, directly impacting his nation.

For Trump, there is no mention of the climate crisis in his platform or Agenda47.

This is in line with the former president’s past actions, such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2019, citing “unfair economic burdens” placed on American workers and businesses.

Trump has maintained his position that the climate crisis is “one of the great scams of all time”.

The America First agenda is clear, with “countering China” at the top of the list. Further, “strengthening alliances,” Trump’s version of multilateralism, reads as what allies can do for the US rather than the other way around.

“There are concerns for Donald Trump’s admiration for more dictatorial leaders in North Korea, Russia, China and what that could mean in a time of crisis,” Dr Powles said.

A Trump administration could mean uncertainty for the Pacific, she added.

While Trump was president in 2017, he warned North Korea “not to mess” with the United States.

“North Korea [is] best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met by fire and fury like the world has never seen.”

North Korea responded deriding his warning as a “load of nonsense”.

Although there is growing concern among academics and some Pacific leaders that Trump would bring “fire and fury” to the Indo-Pacific if re-elected, the former president seemed to turn cold at the thought of conflict.

In 2023, Trump remarked that “Guam isn’t America” in response to warning that the US territory could be vulnerable to a North Korean nuclear strike — a move which seemed to distance the US from conflict.

If Harris wins
Dr Powles said that if Harris wins, it was important to move past “announcements” and follow-through on all pledges.

A potential win for Harris could be the fulfilment of the many “promises” made to the Pacific for climate financing, uplifting economies of the Pacific and bolstering defence security, she said.

Pacific leaders want Harris to deliver on the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the outcomes of the two Pacific Islands-US summits in 2022 and 2023, and the many diplomatic visits undertaken during President Biden’s presidency.

The Biden administration recognised Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign and independent states and established diplomatic relationships with them.

Harris has pledged to boost funding to the Green Climate Fund by US$3 billion. She also promised to “tackle the climate crisis with bold action, build a clean energy economy, advance environmental justice, and increase resilience to climate disasters”.

Dr Powles said that delivery needed to be the focus.

“What we need to be focused on is delivery [and that] Pacific Island partners are engaged from the very beginning — from the outset to any programme right through to the final phase of it.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Regional leaders will gather later this month in Tonga for the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting in Tonga and high on the agenda will be Japan’s dumping of
treated nuclear wastewater in the Pacific Ocean.

A week ago on the 6 August 2024, the 79th anniversary of the atomic bombing of
Hiroshima in 1945 and the 39th anniversary of the Treaty of Rarotonga opening for signatures in 1985 were marked.

As the world and region remembered the horrors of nuclear weapons and stand in solidarity, there is still work to be done.

• READ MORE: Other nuclear wastewater in Pacific reports

Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has stated that Japan’s discharge of treated nuclear wastewater into the Pacific Ocean does not breach the Rarotonga Treaty which established a Nuclear-Free Zone in the South Pacific.

Civil society groups have been calling for Japan to stop the dumping in the Pacific Ocean, but Brown, who is also the chair of the Pacific Islands Forum and represents a country
associated by name with the Rarotonga Treaty, has backtracked on both the efforts of PIFS and his own previous calls against it.

Brown stated during the recent 10th Pacific Alliance Leaders Meeting (PALM10) meeting in
Tokyo that Pacific Island Leaders stressed the importance of transparency and scientific evidence to ensure that Japan’s actions did not harm the environment or public health.

But he also defended Japan, saying that the wastewater, treated using the Advanced Liquid
Processing System (ALPS) to remove most radioactive materials except tritium, met the
standard set by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Harmful isotopes removed
“No, the water has been treated to remove harmful isotopes, so it’s well within the standard guidelines as outlined by the global authority on nuclear matters, the IAEA,” Brown said in an Islands Business article.

“Japan is complying with these guidelines in its discharge of wastewater into the ocean.”

The Cook Islands has consistently benefited from Japanese development grants. In 2021, Japan funded through the Asian Development Bank $2 million grant from the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, financed by the Government of Japan.

Together with $500,000 of in-kind contribution from the government of the Cook Islands, the grant funded the Supporting Safe Recovery of Travel and Tourism Project.

Just this year Japan provided grants for the Puaikura Volunteer Fire Brigade Association totaling US$132,680 and a further US$53,925 for Aitutaki’s Vaitau School.

Long-term consequences
In 2023, Prime Minister Brown said it placed a special obligation on Pacific Island States because of ’the long-term consequences for Pacific peoples’ health, environment and human rights.

Pacific states, he said, had a legal obligation “to prevent the dumping of radioactive wastes and other radioactive matter by anyone” and “to not . . .  assist or encourage the dumping by anyone of radioactive wastes and other radioactive matter at sea anywhere within the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone.

“Our people do not have anything to gain from Japan’s plan but have much at risk for
generations to come.”

The Pacific Islands Forum went on further to state then that the issue was an “issue of significant transboundary and intergenerational harm”.

The Rarotonga Treaty, a Cold War-era agreement, prohibits nuclear weapons testing and
deployment in the region, but it does not specifically address the discharge of the treated
nuclear wastewater.

Pacific civil society organisations continue to condemn Japan’s dumping of nuclear-treated
wastewater. Of its planned 1.3 million tonnes of nuclear-treated wastewater, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) has conducted seven sets of dumping into the Pacific Ocean and was due to commence the eighth between August 7-25.

Regardless of the recommendations provided by the Pacific Island Forum’s special panel of
experts and civil society calls to stop Japan and for PIF Leaders to suspend Japan’s dialogue
partner status, the PIF Chair Mark Brown has ignored concerns by stating his support for
Japan’s nuclear wastewater dumping plans.

Contradiction of treaty
This decision is being viewed by the international community as a contradiction of the Treaty of Rarotonga that symbolises a genuine collaborative endeavour from the Pacific region, born out of 10 years of dedication from Fiji, New Zealand, Australia, the Cook Islands, and various other nations, all working together to establish a nuclear-free zone in the South Pacific. Treaty Ratification

Bedi Racule, a nuclear justice advocate said the Treaty of Rarotonga preamble had one of the most powerful statements in any treaty ever. It is the member states’ promise for a nuclear free Pacific.

“The spirit of the Treaty is to protect the abundance and the beauty of the islands for future
generations,” Racule said.

She continued to state that it was vital to ensure that the technical aspects of the Treaty and the text from the preamble is visualised.

“We need to consistently look at this Treaty because of the ongoing nuclear threats that are
happening”.

Racule said the Treaty did not address the modern issues being faced like nuclear waste dumping, and stressed that there was a dire need to increase the solidarity and the
universalisation of the Treaty.

“There is quite a large portion of the Pacific that is not signed onto the Treaty. There’s still work within the Treaty that needs to be ratified.

“It’s almost like a check mark that’s there but it’s not being attended to.”

The Pacific islands Forum meets on August 26-30.

Brittany Nawaqatabu is assistant media and communications officer of the Suva-based Pacific Network on Globalisation (PANG). 

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A leading peace campaigner is calling Aotearoa New Zealand’s decision to stay away from a peace event in Nagasaki paying tribute to victims of the Japanese city’s 1945 nuclear bombing “outrageous”.

Former trade union leader Robert Reid said New Zealand could have acted as a strong independent Pacific voice by attending today’s peace gathering, held annually on August 9 to commemorate the estimated 70,000 people killed in a US nuclear attack on the Japanese city at the end of World War II.

“New Zealand has missed an opportunity to demarcate itself from the cheerleaders of the Gaza genocide, from the US and the UK and other Western countries, and in a way has turned its back on Japan, which was an ally with us in the anti-nuclear position that New Zealand has held for many years,” the former Unite president said.

His comments come after a Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Mfat) spokesperson confirmed to In Context neither New Zealand’s ambassador to Japan Hamish Hooper nor any other consulate official would be attending the peace ceremony, stressing the move was due to “resourcing” and unrelated to a boycott by Western nations following the city’s decision not to invite Israel.

The US and its Western allies are staying away from the peace ceremony because Nagasaki’s Mayor Shiro Suzuki declined to send an invitation to Israel to attend, over events in the Middle East and to avoid protests against the war in Gaza at the event.

In a statement a Mfat spokesperson said: “The New Zealand government will not be represented at the commemorations at Nagasaki on 9 August 2024. This decision reflects limited resourcing of the Embassy in Tokyo, and is not associated with attendance of other countries.”

However, it is understood New Zealand was represented at a commemoration event at head of mission level in Hiroshima last Tuesday. Nagasaki is located south of Hiroshima and a journey three-and-a-half hours by train.

Cancelled last year
The Nagasaki commemoration was cancelled last year due to a typhoon warning. New Zealand had been represented at both the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in recent years, at head of mission level in 2022 and 2021.

It only attended the Hiroshima commemoration in 2020, a period when covid-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions were widespread.

New Zealand’s absence comes after envoys of the US, Canada, Germany, France, the UK and other Western nations sent a letter to Nagasaki organisers expressing concern over the city not inviting Israel.

The letter, dated July 19, warned that if Israel was excluded, “it would become difficult for us to have high-level participation” in the event as it would “result in placing Israel on the same level as countries such as Russia and Belarus,” both having been excluded from the ceremony since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In a statement on July 31 outlining the reasons for excluding Israel, Suzuki said officials feared protests against Israel’s actions in Gaza would take away the ceremony’s solemnity.

He added that he made the decision based on “various developments in the international community in response to the ongoing situation in the Middle East”.

ICJ ruled Israel as apartheid state
An International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion on July 19 ruled Israel’s occupation of Palestine illegal and that Israel was administering a system of apartheid through discriminatory laws and policies. Apartheid is a crime against humanity.

In a 14-1 ruling, the ICJ directed Israel to immediately cease all settlement activity, evacuate settlers from occupied Palestinian territories, and pay reparations to Palestinians. It also voted 12-3 that UN states not render aid or assistance to Israel to continue the illegal occupation.

On July 30, the UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner said in light of the ruling: “States must immediately review all diplomatic, political, and economic ties with Israel, inclusive of business and finance, pension funds, academia and charities.”

There were protests on Wednesday following a decision by the Hiroshima municipality to allow Israeli representation at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park event the day before, while not inviting a Palestinian envoy on the basis that the occupied country was not a United Nations member and that Japan did not recognise it as a state.

“I understand New Zealand is not calling its absence a boycott, but just that it’s too busy, but it has attended in the past,” Read said.

“I think we’re just playing with words here. This was a chance for New Zealand to stand with the people of Palestine, to stand with the Japanese people, who have had bombs dropped on them and they have perhaps taken a weak way out by not attending.”

The Disarmament and Security Centre Aotearoa is holding a Hiroshima and Nagasaki commemoration event on Sunday, August 11, at Christchurch’s Botanic Gardens.

Virtual centre
The non-profit organisation is a virtual centre connecting disarmament experts, lawyers, political scientists, academics, teachers, students and disarmament proponents.

Its spokesperson, Dr Marcus Coll, said he was shocked New Zealand would not be attending the Nagasaki event this year.

“These sorts of things should never be about resources because it’s the symbolism of it that is so important and actually showing solidarity with the victims of Nagasaki,” he said.

“In the Pacific region especially, we’ve really felt the effects of nuclear testing throughout the decades and then in Japan, there still are a lot of the survivors and their families are affected because of the intergenerational effects.”

Dr Coll spent seven years studying and working in Japan. His doctoral research involved interviewing and researching survivors of the atomic bombings, as well as indigenous rights activists, religious and military leaders, peace campaigners, and others who were instrumental in shaping New Zealand’s nuclear free identity.

He said Japan’s survivors had expressed awe at a small country in the Pacific taking a strong stand against nuclear weapons.

“New Zealand has really been a kind of a beacon of hope for a lot of those people,” he said.

Nuclear-free legacy
New Zealand became a nuclear-free country in 1987, with a Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament and Arms Control Act that effectively banned US nuclear vessels from its waters.

It led to New Zealand being frozen out of the ANZUS security treaty and allowed the country to develop a more independent policy engagement with the Pacific and the rest of the world.

“That came from the government level as well,” Dr Coll said.

“It was a groundswell from the public, which changed our policy, but governments of all stripes up until recently have really not contested that legacy and actually been kind of proud of it.

“It really is something that sets us apart, especially internationally and we’re respected for it . . . So, it seems like a real let down that our own government can’t even show up.”

Dr Coll said New Zealand had nurtured a significant link with Nagasaki, being the last place to suffer a nuclear attack in warfare.

“Our former director used to go to Nagasaki. She had very strong connections with the mayor there. There’s actually a sculpture in the Nagasaki Peace Park, given to the city on behalf of New Zealand cities and the New Zealand government back in 2000s, forging that strong connection.

“It’s called the Korowai of Peace. Phil Goff as foreign minister, the New Zealand ambassador and other civil society people were there . . .  This decision I suspect is a kind of PR and not to attend is a blow to our heritage of promoting disarmament and being anti-nuclear.”

The US envoy to Japan Rahm Emanuel is expected to attend a peace ceremony at the Zojoji Temple in Tokyo on Friday instead.

Nagasaki was bombed by the United States on August 9, 1945, after Hiroshima had been hit by atomic bomb on August 6. The two attacks at the end of World War II killed up to 250,000 people. Japan surrendered on August 15.

Republished from Mick Hall In Context with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The Pacific Islands Forum hopes to send a high-level delegation to Kanaky New Caledonia to investigate the current political crisis in the French territory before the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting in Tonga in August.

According to Pacnews, Forum Chair and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown confirmed this during an interview with journalists in Tokyo after the conclusion of the PALM10 meeting.

He said while it was a work in progress, there had been a request from the territorial government of New Caledonia for a high-level Pacific delegation.

Brown said the next step was to write a letter which would then need support from France.

“We will now go through the process of how we will put this into practice. Of course, it will require the support of the Government of France for the mission to proceed,” Brown said.

The Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) has voiced strong objections to France’s handling of the political situation in Kanaky/New Caledonia.

Brown said the Forum shared similar concerns.

“We do have similar concerns. The third referendum was boycotted by the Kanak population because of the impacts of covid-19 and the respect for the mourning period. Therefore, the outcome of that referendum is not valuable,” he said.

The adviser to New Caledonia’s President Charles Wea, who is in Japan for talks on the sidelines of the PALM10 meeting, told RNZ Pacific the high level group would be made up of the leaders of Fiji, Cook Islands, Tonga and Solomon Islands.

Fiji’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sitiveni Rabuka announced he would lead the Forum’s fact-finding mission in New Caledonia.

“I have also been asked by many Pacific leaders to lead a group to conduct a fact-finding mission in Nouméa to understand the problems they are facing,” he said during a talanoa session with the Fijian diaspora in Tokyo.

“Additionally, I will accompany Prime Minister James Marape to visit the President of Indonesia to discuss further actions regarding the people of West Papua.”

New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs Minister Winston said on Friday that the Pacific Islands Forum could serve as a “constructive force” to find a “path forward” in New Caledonia.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ, and Pacnews.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

“The situation has reached an impasse, and one not easily navigated given the violence that broke out — the democratic injuries that have reopened old wounds and created new ones.”

Peters is in Japan representing New Zealand at the 10th Japan-Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM10) hosted by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo.

He delivered a speech titled “Pacific Futures”, pointing to increasing challenges in the Indo-Pacific as context.

The speech was an opportunity to outline New Zealand’s foreign policy shift, and the minister made renewed calls for “more diplomacy, more engagement, more compromise”, particularly in New Caledonia.

Riots and armed clashes between indigenous Kanak pro-independence protesters and security forces in New Caledonia’s capital Nouméa erupted in May following an attempt by the French government to make constitutional amendments which would affect voting rights for 25,000 people.

Peters also raised questions around the legitimacy of the 2021 referendum on independence due to a “vastly reduced, and therefore different, sample of voters” and the “obvious democratic injury”.

Among the reasons
“Those two decisions were among the reasons, alongside growing inequalities and lack of prospects for the indigenous Kanak population, especially their youth, that led to the precarious situation that exploded into unrest in May.”

Though, he also understood the 25,000 potential voters may also feel “democratic injury” due to disenfranchisement.

NZ Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ full speech.   Video: NZ Embassy, Tokyo

“We raise this crisis here because the situation in New Caledonia is a test of the effectiveness of our regional architecture in dealing with crisis response,” he said.

“It also creates a chance for the Pacific Islands Forum to serve as a constructive force, helping to bring the parties together for an essential democratic dialogue and the path forward.

“In this role, the Pacific Islands Forum needs to find an appropriate mechanism and the best person or people to help facilitate dialogue, engagement or mediation as a path forward between the different actors in New Caledonia.”

He pointed to recent discussions between President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon on New Caledonia on what role the Forum might play.

“Pacific Islands Forum countries by virtue of our locations and histories understand the large indigenous minority population’s desire for self-determination.

‘Deeply respect France’s role’
“We also deeply respect and appreciate France’s role in the region and understand France’s desire to walk together with New Caledonians towards a prosperous and secure future.”

The discussions come at a time where wider geopolitical implications are affecting the Pacific.

He said “Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine”, the “utter catastrophe still unfolding in Gaza”, and the risk of greater escalation in the Middle East were creating a more destabilised global security situation.

Peters said decision-makers should have their “eyes-wide open” to their country’s challenges, but also be “alert to opportunities that materially advance the prosperity and security of our citizens”.

“The call for renewed and vigorous diplomatic engagement provides the context for New Zealand’s foreign policy reset. The security environment has deteriorated sharply during the three years since last being foreign minister, accentuating an even longer-term deterioration of the rules-based order.”

Peters said New Zealand’s foreign policy reset is a response to “three big shifts underpinning the multi-faceted and complex challenges facing the international order” which he outlines:

• From rules to power, a shift towards a multipolar world that is characterised by more contested rules and where relative power between states assumes a greater role in shaping international affairs;
• From economics to security, a shift in which economic relationships are reassessed in light of increased military competition in a more securitised and less stable world; and
• From efficiency to resilience, a shift in the drivers of economic behaviour, and where building greater resilience and addressing pressing social and sustainability issues become more prominent.

New Zealand foreign minister calls for ‘more compromise’ on New Caledonia https://t.co/uwLAXokXAd

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) July 19, 2024

Southeast Asian focus
In response, Peters said the New Zealand government was “significantly increasing our focus and resources” to Southeast and North Asia, including Japan.

The government is also renewing engagement with “traditional like-minded partnerships” and supporting new groupings that “advance and defend our interests and capabilities”.

He mentions the IP4 and NATO as examples.

“We also knew we needed to give more energy, more urgency, and a sharper focus to three inter-connected lines of diplomatic effort: investing in our relationships, growing our prosperity, and strengthening our security.”

Peters will return to New Zealand on Saturday.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will stop over in Port Moresby today for a quick bilateral with Prime Minister James Marape before setting off to Japan.

Luxon hosted Chinese Premier Li Qiang in New Zealand this week before flying off to Japan through Port Moresby.

Luxon has recently returned from a trip to Niue and Fiji and will fly to Tokyo today, returning on June 20.

PNG Foreign Affairs Minister Justin Tkatchenko confirmed that Prime Minister Luxon would be stopping over in Port Moresby for a bilateral meeting with his counterpart Prime Minister Marape before flying on to Japan.

“The newly elected Prime Minister will be stopping over for one hour and will have a bilateral with our Prime Minister,” Minister Tkatchenko said.

“He is travelling with his New Zealand Trade Minister, so our Trade Minister, the Honourable Richard Maru, myself and Prime Minister will be having a one hour bilateral with the new New Zealand Prime Minister and we will be talking about most of the issues we discussed with the New Zealand Foreign Minister and our partnership,” he said.

Health, infrastructure, renewable energy, security, and stability are among the themes of the bilateral agenda.

Prime Minister Luxon met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at Government House in Wellington yesterday.

Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

French Polynesia has just played host to a 15-nation “Marara” military exercise aimed at increasing “interoperability” between participating armed forces.

From May 27 to June 8, the exercise involved about 1000 military from Australia, New Zealand, United States, Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Cook Islands, Vanuatu, Tonga, Fiji, Canada, the Netherlands and Peru.

For the occasion, Japan’s helicopter carrier LST Kunisaki was used as a joint command post in what is described as a realistic simulation of an international relief operation to assist a fictitious Pacific island country struck by a grave natural disaster.

Military transport planes and patrol boats were also brought into the exercise by participating countries.

“Marara 2024 illustrates France’s commitment to reinforce security and stability in the Pacific . . . and its ability to cooperate with nations of the region for the benefit of the people,” the French Armed forces in French Polynesia said in a media release.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has arrived at Kokoda Station, Northern province, at the start of his state visit to Papua New Guinea.

Both Albanese and Prime Minister James Marape will meet with the locals and the Northern Provincial government before they begin their walk along the historic 96km Kokoda Trail.

Both men were “excited” with Marape saying “he was there to lend a hand to his brother PM”.

Meanwhile, the heroism of Australian soldier Private Bruce Steel Kingsbury is being remembered in advance of ANZAC Day.

Knowing his platoon would not last long with the continuous attack by the Japanese and suffering severe losses during World War Two, Private Kingsbury made the heroic decision to move against the continuous firing and attacked the enemy which cost his life on 29 August 1942.

The battle took place at Isurava, Kokoda. Where Private Kingsbury fell is a memorial which is known as “Kingsbury Rock” beside the Isurava Memorial which Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit for the ANZAC Dawn service.

Private Kingsbury’s sacrifice earned him a Victoria Cross. He is buried at the Bomana War Cemetery outside Port Moresby and is one of 625 Australians who were killed in action along the Kokoda track, another 1055 were wounded.

Battle for PNG
The battle to protect Papua and New Guinea, as it was known back then, took about 9000 lives and the remnants of war still remain in the jungles of PNG with more men still missing in action.

Prime ministers Marape and Albanese will walk a section of the Kokoda track to honour the shared history and enduring bond between the two nations.

“The visit of Prime Minister Albanese underscores the close relationships between our countries,” said Prime Minister Marape.

“I’ll be joining him for a walk along the Kokoda Trail.”

Albanese is set to be the first sitting prime minister to walk part of the famous 96km track.

Kevin Rudd walked the Kokoda Track in 2006 while he was opposition leader while former prime minister Scott Morrison also hiked the track in 2009 during his time as a backbench MP.

Miriam Zarriga is a PNG Post-Courier reporter. Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Papua New Guinea’s Defence Minister Dr Billy Joseph attended the second Japan Pacific Islands Defence Dialogue (JPIDD) in Tokyo, Japan, this week on his first overseas engagement.

The JPIDD is one of the pillars of the regional security architecture initiated by Japan and contributes to regional peace and security by fostering trust and sustained practical cooperation among its members and dialogue partners.

During the meeting, Dr Joseph and his counterparts and dialogue partners exchanged views on the regional security environment, issues and challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.

He stressed the importance of the Pacific Island countries and their security partners in the region to cooperate and collaborate to uphold and enforce the “rules-based international order” to maintain peace and stability in the region.

“As a Pacific family, we must stand united in response to the current and emerging security challenges posed by the intensification of geo-strategic competition, climate change, maritime security, non-traditional security challenges such as illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, transnational crime as well as space and cyber security threats,” Dr Joseph said.

“It is our common resolve to realise our shared vision for a Blue Pacific Continent, a resilient Pacific region of peace, harmony, security, social inclusion and prosperity, that ensures everybody live a free, healthy and productive life.”

He acknowledged the important roles played by Japan and “our traditional friends and dialogue partners Australia, New Zealand and the United States” in the JPIDD process and urged them to elevate their support for Pacific Island countries to collaborate and promote a “free and open Indo-Pacific for peace and economic prosperity for all”.

Regional training focus
“We call for our partners to genuinely assist the individual Pacific Island countries with a regional focus on capacity building in the areas of training, equipment support and infrastructure development with the principle of ‘helping us to help ourselves’,” Dr Joseph said.

“In doing so, we envisage our region to be a region that is capable of looking after itself, a region that is led by Pacific Islands, and a region that promotes collective regional response in addressing its regional security challenges.”

Fiji and Papua New Guinea have sent their defence ministers to the talks, with the crown prince of Tonga representing his country.

From the other 11 participating nations that have no military forces, senior officials have joined the meeting, either in person or online.

Defence ministers and the representatives of Australia, Canada, Cook Islands, France, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Japan, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, United Kingdom, United States, and Vanuatu have been attending.

Jeffrey Elapa is a PNG Post-Courier reporter. Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

In this article, I will simply present the numbers for the key performance indicators (taken from tradingeconomics.com). And then I’ll give an update on GDP (gross domestic product) data, given today’s data release from Statistics New Zealand, and with the definition of ‘recession’ in mind.

An important part of the context is that for many years, the principal economic commentary about Japan we hear in Aotearoa New Zealand is that the Japanese economy is “sluggish” and has been so for many years.

Interest Rate (OCR equivalent)
Dec-2014	3.50%	0.00%
Dec-2018	1.75%	-0.10%
Dec-2022	4.25%	-0.10%
Dec-2023	5.50%	-0.10%

Inflation Rate (CPI)
Dec-2014	0.8%	2.4%
Dec-2018	1.9%	0.3%
Dec-2022	7.2%	4.0%
Dec-2023	4.7%	2.6%

Unemployment Rate
Dec-2014	5.5%	3.4%
Dec-2018	4.3%	2.4%
Dec-2022	3.4%	2.5%
Dec-2023	4.0%	2.5%

Current Account as % of GDP
Dec-2014	-3.4%	0.8%
Dec-2018	-4.2%	3.5%
Dec-2022	-8.9%	1.8%
Dec-2023	-6.9%	*2.9%
		* estimate

Government Budget as % of GDP
Dec-2014	-1.2%	-5.9%
Dec-2018	1.9%	-3.4%
Dec-2022	-2.7%	-6.4%
Dec-2023	*-1.6%	*-5.0%
		* estimate

Government Debt as % of GDP
Dec-2014	25.3%	233.5%
Dec-2018	19.4%	232.3%
Dec-2022	35.9%	263.9%
Dec-2023	*38.4%	*265.9%
		* estimate

Locating Recessions

The table below highlights recessions using two different definitions, for aggregate GDP growth and for GDP growth per person in the population.

The two definitions are essentially those given on 20 March, but with small modifications. The definition using Q-to-Q data (quarter to quarter, seasonally adjusted), is when two subsequent quarters have a lower GDP than a given quarter. For example, in New Zealand in 2021, both the December and September GDP values were lower than the June value.

The second definition applies to Y-to-Y data, meaning when a quarter is compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Any negative value counts as a recession. Additionally, that recession may be backdated; an example is New Zealand in June 2023, where the GDP for that quarter is less than the GDP for September 2022.

It may be noted that there are more recession quarters in New Zealand when per capita data are used, because of a general pattern of rising population in New Zealand. This is particularly relevant in 2023. Japan on the other hand has fewer quarters in recession when the data is adjusted for population change; this is because Japan’s population is falling, and that rate of decline has sped up in recent years.

Takeaways

While all of the data presented is important for the reflection of policymakers, I would particularly like to emphasise the importance of interest rate settings (monetary policy), and government budget settings (fiscal policy). In this regard, and given the ongoing political attention given in New Zealand to government debt, that New Zealand is about number 140 in the global government debt league, whereas Japan is number 2.

And we should note that the current account data indicate that New Zealand as a country – ie considering the country as a whole, not just the government – is a significant debtor country whereas Japan is not. Desirable current account numbers are within three percent (plus or minus) of GDP. (Interestingly, New Zealand’s current account data for the December 2023 quarter were released on 20 March, but to much less fanfare than the GDP data release today. There would appear to be a degree of media self-censorship in this regard.)

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Macron said tensions in the Indo-Pacific zone were a matter for concern because France was an integral part of the Indo-Pacific — both in the Indian and the Pacific oceans.

He recalled the French version of the Indo-Pacific had been masterminded in 2018 and had since been developed in partnership with such key allies as India, Australia, Japan and the United Arab Emirates.

“But we have also consolidated it and, may I say entrenched it, in our own (overseas) territories,” he said, citing New Caledonia as an example of French army presence to defend France’s sovereignty and “the capacity for our air force to deploy (from mainland France) to Oceania within 48 hours”.

He also praised the recent South Pacific Defence Ministers’ Meeting held in Nouméa last month when “France was the inviting power”.

He said Paris was able to strike “strategic partnerships” with neighbouring armed forces.

“The year 2024 will see us maintain without fail the protection of our overseas territories,” he told the troops.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz