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		<title>Keith Rankin Analysis &#8211; The Axis Nuclear Option in light of Japan 1945</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/04/08/keith-rankin-analysis-the-axis-nuclear-option-in-light-of-japan-1945/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Keith Rankin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:08:14 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://eveningreport.nz/?p=1108972</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Analysis by Keith Rankin, 8 April 2026. Based on my reading of the latest upscaling of US rhetoric, one of the military options being considered by the Israeli-American axis is the nuclear option. Refer Trump says a &#8216;whole civilization will die tonight&#8217; if deal isn&#8217;t reached, One News, 8 April 2026. The possibility of Netanyahu ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Analysis by Keith Rankin, 8 April 2026.</p>
<p>Based on my reading of the latest upscaling of US rhetoric, one of the military options being considered by the Israeli-American axis is the nuclear option. Refer <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/04/08/trump-says-a-whole-civilization-will-die-tonight-if-deal-isnt-reached/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/04/08/trump-says-a-whole-civilization-will-die-tonight-if-deal-isnt-reached/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1eRQXEnfaI3ehLp56rAde_">Trump says a &#8216;whole civilization will die tonight&#8217; if deal isn&#8217;t reached</a>, <i>One News</i>, 8 April 2026.</p>
<figure id="attachment_1075787" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-1075787" style="width: 150px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><a href="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin.jpg"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-1075787 size-thumbnail" src="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" srcset="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-150x150.jpg 150w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-65x65.jpg 65w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-1075787" class="wp-caption-text">Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</figcaption></figure>
<p>The possibility of Netanyahu and Trump thinking this way would reflect a widely-held understanding that World War Two ended not only with the atomic bomb, but because of those nuclear strikes on Japan. In particular, the prevailing American narrative is that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw16foZX-3TP5iPux_NY2-9D">Little Boy</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Man" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Man&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw13p6IiX9pHbph5tnyvKGqM">Fat Man</a> saved the United States from having to make a ground invasion of Japan.</p>
<p>My sense is that if Israel and/or the United States go for a nuclear strike, soon or sooner, it will be on a city or some other quasi-military site in the northeast of Iran, closer to Afghanistan than to the present Persian Gulf warzone; away from the energy infrastructure of the Gulf.</p>
<p>Not only is the northeast the birthplace of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, it is also the part of Iran which gave least support to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Iran" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Iran&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2c8dO7X0rciz0DR_Qakc_y">President</a> Masoud Pezeshkian in the 2024 presidential election. Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon, was elected as a moderniser. In 2024 and 2025 he was committed to evolving Iran away from being a Shia theocracy and towards being a typical BRICS&#8217; middle-range geopolitical power. (See my <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2603/S00085/the-enigma-of-the-iranian-president.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2603/S00085/the-enigma-of-the-iranian-president.htm&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw307VxQIJMUNJZC_WZOmjpx">The Enigma of the Iranian President</a>, <i>Scoop</i>, 27 March 2026.)</p>
<p>If we look at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iranian_presidential_election,_2024_by_province_-_Second_Round_Percentage.svg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iranian_presidential_election,_2024_by_province_-_Second_Round_Percentage.svg&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3VnxIiMGwLXwSg9m6_PAhz">map here</a> – the second round of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_presidential_election" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_presidential_election&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2uGsTa85nozswLpYhw8tcy">2024 Iranian presidential election</a> – we see that Pezeshkian&#8217;s support was most in the more secular northwest and least in the more Islamist northeast. I suspect that the Axis&#8217; military planning will be to inflict as much damage as possible – in one or a few dramatic strikes – on the present Iranian civilisation which draws heavily on Shia Islam; hence focussing on the Shia heartland.</p>
<p>Finally, here, I draw attention to the movie <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_Look_Up" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%2527t_Look_Up&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1775682267949000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3NK0Nwwy0kti2IgBQnjcYa">Don&#8217;t Look Up</a>. In that movie, the threat was an asteroid, not a nuclear war. The key theme was the widespread dispassion that prevailed, especially in the mainstream media, towards a known and imminent catastrophe. In the case of a nuclear strike on Iran away from Tehran or the Gulf or the Pakistan border, the present lack of mainstream outrage at the aggressions of the last month will probably continue on and beyond the day after.</p>
<p align="center">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<p>Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</p>
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		<title>AVFA PODCAST: A Deep-Dive into the US-Israel War in the Middle East</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/30/avfa-podcast-a-deep-dive-into-the-us-israel-war-in-the-middle-east/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Selwyn Manning]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 03:59:20 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[In this episode of A View from Afar, political scientist and former Pentagon Analyst Paul Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning deep-dive into the US-Israel war in the Middle East.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Podcast: <a class="yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string" dir="auto" spellcheck="false" href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTTfwBrpdNaPmtvuXxR9fqzdMcZjD2Hiq">A View from Afar with Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning</a></p>
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<p><iframe title="A deep-dive into the US-Israel war in the Middle East" width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HtJOeVMshc8?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
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<div id="expanded" class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">In this episode of A View from Afar, political scientist and former Pentagon Analyst Paul Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning deep-dive into the US-Israel war in the Middle East. </span></span></div>
<div></div>
<div class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><strong><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">In This Episode, they discuss: </span></span></strong></div>
<ul>
<li class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">Why did Netanyahu and Trump attack Iran and start this war?</span></span></li>
<li class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">Why did the US decide to attack without a clear reason to do so and without strategic planning nor a legal argument for it?</span></span></li>
<li class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">What impact will this war in the Middle East have on US Midterm Elections?</span></span></li>
<li class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">And what of independent operators in this conflict, such as European states, why do they risk being drawn into this US-Israel Middle East War?</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<div class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto"><strong>Your Interaction:</strong> </span></span></div>
<div class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">A View from Afar podcast is recorded live before an internet audience. </span></span></div>
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<div class="style-scope ytd-text-inline-expander"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string yt-core-attributed-string--white-space-pre-wrap" dir="auto" role="text"><span class="yt-core-attributed-string--link-inherit-color" dir="auto">That way you will be notified in advance of the next episode of A View from Afar.</span></span></div>
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		<title>Keith Rankin Analysis &#8211; The Enigma of the Iranian President</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/27/keith-rankin-analysis-the-enigma-of-the-iranian-president/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Keith Rankin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 04:01:20 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Analysis by Keith Rankin. One puzzling feature of the present Israel-Iran war is the almost complete absence of reference – in the western media at least – to the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian. The American president claimed that Israel had killed the Iranian President, but he was referring to the Supreme Leader. Killing Ali Khamenei, ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Analysis by Keith Rankin.</p>
<p>One puzzling feature of the present Israel-Iran war is the almost complete absence of reference – in the western media at least – to the Iranian President, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masoud_Pezeshkian" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masoud_Pezeshkian&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438880000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2RgcWBNtPvHB01Z_bHa3F9">Masoud Pezeshkian</a>.</p>
<figure id="attachment_1075787" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-1075787" style="width: 150px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><a href="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-1075787 size-thumbnail" src="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" srcset="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-150x150.jpg 150w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-65x65.jpg 65w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-1075787" class="wp-caption-text">Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</figcaption></figure>
<p>The American president claimed that Israel had killed the Iranian President, but he was referring to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438880000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0bOtGWI69HrjtT9nFFeofm">Supreme Leader</a>. Killing Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Shia Islam – and, when he was alive, the Patriarch of Iran – was comparable to the assassination of Pope Leo or King Charles. (These last two are both &#8216;supreme leaders&#8217;, though neither of these two are anything like the administrative or military leader of a nation state; they are moral and morale leaders.) Iran&#8217;s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, is still very much alive; and would prefer to build bridges than bombs.</p>
<p>Admittedly, the Iranian constitution is somewhat complex – especially to casual western onlookers – having distinct power centres for religious, military, and civilian authority. Do we dismiss Pezeshkian simply because he is neither a &#8216;cleric&#8217; nor a &#8216;revolutionary guard&#8217;? I think there is much more to our dismissal of him than some consideration that he&#8217;s unimportant.</p>
<p>Ali Khamenei was, during the 1980s, the third President of Iran. His two predecessors had fewer religious credentials than Khamanei, reflecting the comparatively secular nature of the role of president. Their presidencies were short-lived however; the first president was impeached in mid-1981, and his successor was assassinated by bombing four weeks later; revolutionary Iran was a tumultuous place.</p>
<p>President Khamenei clearly played a critical role in the 1980s&#8217; Iran-Iraq War, from which Iran survived; unexpectedly to many, and stronger from having been tested through a war in which the western powers supported the other side and its president <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1Lx4akMCjsrwf2qkWng7x8">Saddam Hussein</a>.</p>
<p>The Presidency of Iran is clearly a very important political role. Problematically for the West, who wishes to cast Iran as an anti-democracy, it&#8217;s a highly-contested democratically-elected position of power. Indeed the President has featured in most political news stories throughout the history of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2uX0fzu8lkdlDTiRWv96pO">Islamic Republic</a>, at least until the election of the present president in 2024 (following the death of his predecessor, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebrahim_Raisi" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebrahim_Raisi&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2WunMwoDE5gyiHP-a5X_Xb">Ebrahim Raisi</a>, in a helicopter crash).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_presidential_election" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_presidential_election&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw23bCYpi-hxw-f6UA23jG1K">the 2024 election</a>, Pezeshkian, the &#8216;progressive left&#8217; candidate defeated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Bagher_Ghalibaf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Bagher_Ghalibaf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw34XRWUwY2JujHS7Ban6xVV">Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saeed_Jalili" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saeed_Jalili&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw08DeZRymEGZS_SpueMNTP_">Saeed Jalili</a>, the &#8216;conservative right&#8217; candidates. I heard recently that, when Ingrid Hipkiss asked who the Americans might negotiate with, given President Trump&#8217;s claim to have killed several tiers of Iranian leadership, the answer suggested by Simon Marks was Ghalibaf, who was high up in the regime and had even stood for president. Not a single mention of the actual President! (Refer Morning Report, <i>RNZ</i> 24 March 2026, <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2019028154/trump-suspends-strikes-on-iran-s-power-plants" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2019028154/trump-suspends-strikes-on-iran-s-power-plants&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1iTa1gjY1MMgaDpyNxCGUC">Trump suspends strikes on Iran&#8217;s power plants</a>.)</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I would argue that Pezeshkian&#8217;s success was more reflective of popular preference than the other elections that year, which delivered Donald Trump in the United States and Keir Starmer in the United Kingdom. Both Trump and Starmer were widely disliked by their countries&#8217; electorates (now even more disliked than in 2024), only winning because the only other options for political leadership were deemed by voters to be worse.</p>
<p>Pezeshkian, on the other hand, was a progressive and genuinely popular choice; not a person wanting to align Iran with the West, but a person wanting to build strong relationships. Through, for example, Iran joining the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2FvAaQ-404PxybT0b8HBls">BRICS</a>network of economically powerful countries which favour geopolitical multipolarity rather than Western unipolarity. (See this <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2024_BRICS_Summit_(1729758535).jpg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2024_BRICS_Summit_(1729758535).jpg&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2n6O3JiewHP6xbcF_8IRbU">picture of BRICS 2024</a>, with Pezeshkian very prominent, and neither looking like a Shia cleric – as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebrahim_Raisi" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebrahim_Raisi&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2WunMwoDE5gyiHP-a5X_Xb">Raisi</a> had looked – nor conforming with western dress codes.) He comes across as a statesman, certainly not a demagogue.</p>
<p>My take on the Iranian presidential enigma is this. Politics is substantially propaganda – aka &#8216;narrative&#8217; – and geopolitics involves such messaging on a global scale. Much narrative is conducted through images rather than through words, and is largely shaped by which images are missing; propaganda is as much about deamplification of unwanted messages as it is about amplifying regime (and prevalent media) narratives.</p>
<p>President Pezeshkian does not present the imagery of smarminess (being <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/smarminess" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/smarminess&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2uZwYF_c_SUM_VgIkvt1h3">unpleasantly suave</a>) or of evilness or of rigid fundamentalism; he does not present the images that Israel and the West would like to portray in conveying their story about Iran. Rather, he presents as honest, pragmatic, constructive, and electable. He is quietly spoken. I have heard mention that one of Iran&#8217;s political strategies is the so-called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_cop,_bad_cop" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_cop,_bad_cop&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WawQQKlXoEN7N4OmIVPMg">good cop, bad cop</a> strategy. If so, Pezeshkian is certainly the good cop. I think he is a good cop, period.</p>
<p>Pezeshkian is neither a clerical ideologue nor a shouty military spokesperson. He is not a newsreader with head covered, dressed all in black. Those are the images which western media push about Iran. Too moderate to assassinate; such grotesque (albeit routine) geopolitical violence would increase Pezeshkian&#8217;s profile in the West, which the West seems not to want. Better to just pretend he doesn&#8217;t exist, even though he&#8217;s the President. (Though some – including <i>Al Jazeera&#8217;s</i> Israeli-born political analyst, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marwan_Bishara" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marwan_Bishara&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1774662438881000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1ARD8mqY-_EIVFQEhB7gz-">Marwan Bishara</a> – suggest that Israel prefers to assassinate their more moderate opponents, given that such people [when alive and visible] might distract us from consuming Israel&#8217;s dehumanising narratives.)</p>
<p>To glean a semblance of truth in contentious times, you often have to <b><i>hear what is not being said</i></b>, and <b><i>see what is not being shown</i></b>. You have to look out for softly spoken messages; looking past caricatures and scapegoats, and looking past CAPITAL LETTERS and !!!</p>
<p align="center">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<p>Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</p>
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		<title>Keith Rankin Analysis &#8211; Israel, Epstein, and Big Money</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/13/keith-rankin-analysis-israel-epstein-and-big-money/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Keith Rankin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2026 22:11:26 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Rankin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leadership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lebanon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MIL Syndication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MIL-OSI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military Alliances]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military Tactics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Arab Emirates]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://eveningreport.nz/?p=1107144</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Analysis by Keith Rankin. On Tuesday, I wrote UAE, Israel, And The Hexagon Alliance which illuminated Israel&#8217;s duplicity in relation to Hamas, and the understated but very strong alliance between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel. And Israel&#8217;s agenda to divide and rule the &#8216;Middle East&#8217; by creating its own encircling alliance; and setting ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Analysis by Keith Rankin.</p>
<figure id="attachment_1075787" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-1075787" style="width: 150px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><a href="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-1075787 size-thumbnail" src="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" srcset="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-150x150.jpg 150w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-65x65.jpg 65w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" /></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-1075787" class="wp-caption-text">Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</figcaption></figure>
<p>On Tuesday, I wrote <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2603/S00030/uae-israel-and-the-hexagon-alliance.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2603/S00030/uae-israel-and-the-hexagon-alliance.htm&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1c_M44kJ-PqsOkWHS1b93h">UAE, Israel, And The Hexagon Alliance</a> which illuminated Israel&#8217;s duplicity in relation to Hamas, and the understated but very strong alliance between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel. And Israel&#8217;s agenda to divide and rule the &#8216;Middle East&#8217; by creating its own encircling alliance; and setting up two rival Muslim axes (a Shia axis, and a Sunni axis) which Israel would like to see weaken and damage each other.</p>
<p>Here I begin with other candid comments, by recent Israeli leaders, from the Australian 2024 documentary <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/the-forever-war/103574742" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/the-forever-war/103574742&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3__64KqzgyFR1lSmY4Wljl">The Forever War</a>. Themes include a mix of empathy and contempt for the indigenous Palestinian population, Benjamin Netanyahu&#8217;s trustworthiness, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as &#8220;messianic&#8221; &#8220;terrorists&#8221;, Israel&#8217;s hold over the United States, and Israel&#8217;s self-inflicted diminishing security.</p>
<p><b>Excerpts from the Australian ABC documentary</b></p>
<p>TZIPI LIVNI, FMR FOREIGN &amp; JUSTICE MINISTER: They hate us. We saw the results. The idea of eradicating Hamas completely from Gaza is a just cause.</p>
<p>YEHUDA SHAUL, FMR ISRAELI ARMY COMMANDER: That the IDF is doing everything to avoid civilian casualties is a blunt lie. Straight lie.</p>
<p>YEHUDA SHAUL, FMR ISRAELI ARMY COMMANDER: Y&#8217;know, [in the] the beginning I was also full of rage. I also had the feeling that these are animals, we need to go there and bomb the hell out of them. But then you stop for a second and you think, you say to yourself, what did we think is going to happen after 16 years of siege.</p>
<p>AMIRA HASS, OCCUPIED TERRITORIES CORRESPONDENT, <i>HAARETZ</i>: I was surprised and not surprised because I kept warning that people cannot stand the accumulated cruelty accumulated over so many decades. And somehow there will be an explosion. Somehow there will be an outburst. I couldn&#8217;t imagine what it would be, but there it came.</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: You&#8217;ve spent a lot of time studying this obviously as head of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shin_Bet" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shin_Bet&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3zvl-DcXRydmXsf5Ihf9sm">Shin Bet</a>. Could you describe what is the reality for Palestinians here?</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF SHIN BET: It was a life of people who dream about freedom, and don&#8217;t see it. Whether we liked it or not, we control the life of millions.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: If you were a Palestinian living in the West Bank or Gaza, what would your view be of Israel?</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF SHIN BET: I would fight against Israel in order to achieve my liberty.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: How would you fight? How dirty?</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF SHIN BET: I would do everything in order to achieve my liberty. And that&#8217;s it.</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: Look, I once was asked some 30 years ago what I have been doing if I were a Palestinian and 30 years ago. I was new enough in politics to tell the truth that if I were born Palestinian probably would&#8217;ve joined one of the terror organisations.</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Israel&#8217;s famous for its targeted assassinations. I mean you yourself dressed as a woman famously and went into Beirut and met up with Mossad and went and killed a Palestinian leader. Israel&#8217;s done that over the years. Why couldn&#8217;t they have tried to strategically target Hamas leaders rather than kill those thousands of children?</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: I never deluded myself to believe that by killing any individual you solve the problem, you give them a blow and they will recover in a way it just delayed the real decision. Real decisions at the end are not about how to kill mosquitoes more effectively. <b><i>It&#8217;s about how to drain the swamp</i></b> [my emphasis].</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Do you trust Benjamin Netanyahu?</p>
<p>TZIPI LIVNI, FMR FOREIGN &amp; JUSTICE MINISTER: Never.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Can there be peace while Benjamin Netanyahu&#8217;s the leader here?</p>
<p>TZIPI LIVNI, FMR FOREIGN &amp; JUSTICE MINISTER: No. No.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Can the world trust Benjamin Netanyahu?</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: I don&#8217;t think that anyone can trust him. So basically, he lies to everyone and no one trust him.</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: BenGvir and Smotrich, the two racist messianic guys that seems to be to very strong leverage on Bibi. They want to turn it into a major religious war between Israel and the Islam.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Are they dangerous?</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: Sure, they&#8217;re dangerous.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: How powerful are BenGvir and Smotrich and what do you think of them?</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF SHIN BET: I see them as terrorists and as Jewish messianics, they represent only a small minority within the Israel society, but they get their power because of our coalition system.*</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: But can I just check something? Are you calling the Minister for National Security and the Minister for Finance in Israel? Are you calling them terrorists?</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF SHIN BET: Of course. They are.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Is the brutal reality that Benjamin Netanyahu wants to continue this war for his own political survival?</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: Look, I cannot penetrate his soul and tell you for sure, but it&#8217;s clear that he acts as if the main objective of this whole event is his survival. He understands that if fighting will have a pause for six weeks or two times six weeks, the Israeli republic will demand accountability in spite of the fact that there is no word in Hebrew for accountability. It was not needed in our culture, but the public will demand it and he might lose his role, the prime minister.</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>excerpt from U.S. PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: The state of Israel was born to be a safe place for the Jewish people.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: President Biden is a lifelong supporter of Israel.</p>
<p>excerpt from U.S. PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: If Israel didn&#8217;t exist we&#8217;d have to invent it.</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: Israel cannot fight this regional war without having close relationship with the Americans. We need their support, not just in munitions that we do not produce in a high enough space to supply the needs of such a regional war, but we need them also to protect us in the UN Security Council. We needed them at the beginning of the crisis to deter Iran from getting involved or from activating the Hezbollah against us. And we will need them even in the Hague, to block the prospect that… Israeli commanders or even politically, they might find themselves as a criminal in the Hague or demanded to be broke. Only America can help us to avoid all this.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Pro-Israeli lobby groups in the US wield immense power.</p>
<p>NATHAN THRALL, FMR DIRECTOR INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP: Every politician in the United States knows that they can pay a major price with their jobs for not toeing the line. And the level of devastation that we are seeing now has so horrified the world and has so horrified the American public that now we have half of the people who voted for Biden saying that Israel is perpetrating a genocide in Gaza.</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Do you now fear for the future?</p>
<p>TZIPI LIVNI, FMR FOREIGN &amp; JUSTICE MINISTER: I am worried. I am worried about the future of Israel. Yes, more than ever.</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF SHIN BET: You cannot deter a person or a group of people if they believe that they have nothing to lose. We Israelis, we shall have security only when they will have hope.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: What&#8217;s the future for Palestinians</p>
<p>AVI DICHTER, CURRENT ISRAELI CABINET MINISTER: Supporting death will not bring you anything. If you don&#8217;t believe that the Jewish presence here between the Mediterranean and Jordan Valley is forever, you are going to lose more than you&#8217;ve lost till now.</p>
<p><b>*Coalition System</b></p>
<p>All electoral democracies – ie with parliamentary or congressional elections – face the problem of a very close electoral result in a partisan House. And, as Keir Starmer is finding out, political parties in traditional duopoly systems (generally &#8216;First Past the Post&#8217;) are themselves coalitions. In 1984, under FPP, New Zealand went to the polls early, because a minority faction of two within the governing National caucus – Marilyn Waring and Mike Minogue – had (or seemed, to Prime Minister Robert Muldoon, to have had) gained the effective balance of power. In Israel today, it is BenGivr and Smotrich who have that balance of power within the parliament, the Knesset.) In the US Senate under Joe Biden&#8217;s presidency, it was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Manchin" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Manchin&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2REIW4sUH0O7o5TpIws0Rq">Joe Manchin</a> of West Virginia.</p>
<p>In the Israel case, Netanyahu is the bigger problem. The BenGivr and Smotrich tails are not wagging the Netanyahu dog.</p>
<p><b>Ehud Barak and Jeffrey Epstein</b></p>
<p>Al Jazeera&#8217;s <i>The Listening Post</i> episode <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-listening-post/2026/2/9/the-anatomy-of-the-epstein-network" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-listening-post/2026/2/9/the-anatomy-of-the-epstein-network&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw03BNiupOFlnOgGaqh48Sqz">The anatomy of the Epstein network</a> (9 Feb 2026) noted this 15 Jan 2026 article – <a href="https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/jeffrey-epstein-united-arab-emirates-sultan-sulayem-dubai-dp-world" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/jeffrey-epstein-united-arab-emirates-sultan-sulayem-dubai-dp-world&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0ryQZPQb0OALsd8yy43QYl">&#8220;Praise Allah, There Are Still People Like You&#8221;: Jeffrey Epstein Nurtured Israel-Emirates Ties Before Abraham Accords</a> – from <a href="https://www.dropsitenews.com/s/epstein-and-israel" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dropsitenews.com/s/epstein-and-israel&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw25_pvesPtw8joJ_4d0TLeq"><i>Drop Site News</i></a>, and then interviewed one of its authors, Murtaza Hussain. As well as emphasising Israel&#8217;s links with UAE, it also outlines Jeffrey Epstein&#8217;s longstanding links to both UAE (especially <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultan_Ahmed_bin_Sulayem" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultan_Ahmed_bin_Sulayem&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3qH__PqT6IHyyrxhcAh4iN">Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem</a>, former head of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DP_World" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DP_World&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2JBCfdaKhIRPP5y2mylF0f">DP World</a>) and to former Israeli Prime Minister <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehud_Barak" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehud_Barak&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3sUibg7KnitUyG-QZdtkti">Ehud Barak</a>. Yes, the very Ehud Barak who intimated that Gaza and the West Bank (and presumably much of Lebanon to the south and west of Beirut) were swamps in need of draining.</p>
<p>Barak, Prime Minister from 1999 to 2001, was the most recent Labor Party leader of Israel. Labor-constituent parties led Israel from 1948 to 1977, and also for some years in the 1990s. Yitzhak Rabin, a Labor Prime Minister, was assassinated by a Zionist terrorist on 4 November 1995.</p>
<p>From <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehud_Barak" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehud_Barak&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3sUibg7KnitUyG-QZdtkti">Wikipedia</a>: &#8220;According to Barak, they first met in 2003, and no evidence of an earlier meeting has been published to date. Barak stayed at Epstein&#8217;s apartments in New York several times over the years. … A large portion of the funds invested by Barak was supplied by Jeffrey Epstein. … In 2023, it was revealed that Barak had visited Epstein around 30 times from 2013 to 2017. … Barak said [in 2015 that] he currently earns more than $1 million a year.&#8221;</p>
<p>From the <i>Drop Site News</i> <a href="https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/jeffrey-epstein-united-arab-emirates-sultan-sulayem-dubai-dp-world" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/jeffrey-epstein-united-arab-emirates-sultan-sulayem-dubai-dp-world&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0ryQZPQb0OALsd8yy43QYl">article</a>:</p>
<p>&#8220;In the last two decades of his life, American financier Jeffrey Epstein acted as an informal diplomatic bridge between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Epstein&#8217;s … claim of having an intimate friendship with Sulayem is now corroborated by a flood of his emails from the House Oversight Committee, a U.S. federal court case, and the hacked inbox of former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak.&#8221;</p>
<p>It appears that much of Epstein&#8217;s correspondence with Sulayem was cc.ed to Ehud Barak; keeping Israel – if not Netanyahu – fully in the loop of UAE&#8217;s deepening links with Epstein, a man sufficiently notorious as a child sex offender to bring down the likes of the former prince, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. (The Epstein Affair has close parallels with the 1963 Profumo Affair, which brought down the British government and also came close to entangling the Royal Family; as viewers of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crown_(TV_series)" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crown_(TV_series)&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3t3ssl-RmuMj5_iTJL9wiE">The Crown</a> will appreciate. I&#8217;m surprised that the Andrew-obsessed British media seems to downplay this parallel.)</p>
<p>The article adds:</p>
<p>&#8216;In a November 2022 interview about the Abraham Accords, Epstein&#8217;s close friend Ehud Barak told journalist Afshin Rattansi, &#8220;I&#8217;m glad that the Emirates and Bahrain went &#8216;out of the closet&#8217; and are ready to formalize relationships with us [Israel], and I hope that others will follow. It&#8217;s a positive development; of course, it&#8217;s not a real peace, it&#8217;s not a major breakthrough. We know these people for 25 years, and we have a very intensive relationship with them in many arenas&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8216;The relationship between Israel and the UAE has only deepened in the years since, even as the Israeli genocide in Gaza has provoked global outrage. In December 2025, the UAE signed a $2.3 billion defense deal with Elbit Systems, one of the largest arms sales in Israeli history.&#8217; [What are the odds that the RSF in Sudan are now using some of those weapons?]</p>
<p>&#8216;Although Epstein did not live to see these agreements come to fruition, the private channels he helped cultivate between Emirati and Israeli elites helped make them possible.&#8217;</p>
<p><b>Epstein&#8217;s Ponzi Scheme</b></p>
<p>How did Epstein make his massive fortune and become so influential and entitled? The whole story is of course murky, especially in the years of the 1990s and 2000s. Most of the information we have today relates to the post-2008 period, after Epstein&#8217;s conviction for &#8216;procuring for prostitution&#8217;.</p>
<p>I discovered a very interesting story relating to an earlier part of Epstein&#8217;s life, when he was working closely with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Hoffenberg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Hoffenberg&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0bVn5mfCasNgmx4qXG_hzu">Steven Hoffenberg</a>. From Epstein&#8217;s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2N2QbJARERc5LUQVWwhpSJ">Wikipedia page</a>: &#8220;In 1993, [Hoffenberg&#8217;s] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towers_Financial_Corporation" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towers_Financial_Corporation&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0S5i3vVQR6JqzTXZ6fAEMI">Towers Financial Corporation</a> imploded when it was exposed as one of the biggest Ponzi schemes in American history, losing over US$450 million of its investors&#8217; money (equivalent to $1 billion in 2025). In court documents, Hoffenberg claimed that Epstein was intimately involved in the scheme.&#8221; Epstein worked with Towers Financial Corporation, which perpetrated that Ponzi scheme in the late 1980s and early 1990s.</p>
<p>From CBS (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-worked-at-towers-financial-with-stephen-hoffenberg-who-committed-ponzi-scheme-crimes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-worked-at-towers-financial-with-stephen-hoffenberg-who-committed-ponzi-scheme-crimes/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2JrHoLG1i0_vNKnSZ-USm5">Jeffrey Epstein worked at financial firm that engaged in massive Ponzi scheme in 1980s and 1990s</a>, by Brian Pascus and Mola Lenghi, 13 Aug 2019): &#8216;Hoffenberg&#8217;s financial crimes in the 1990s drew major public attention, as the Towers Financial Ponzi scheme was the largest financial fraud in American history prior to Bernie Madoff&#8217;s crimes a decade later, according to <i>The New York Times</i>. … &#8220;Jeffrey was my partner in what we did raising the billion dollars. He worked with me every day, seven days a week and he was in the mix with everything that I did,&#8221; Hoffenberg told CBS News. &#8220;I was the CEO of Towers Financial Corporation, a public company, and Jeffrey was my main assistant, associate, or partner. And the company did do a billion dollars in raising money. And it was criminal&#8221;.&#8217;</p>
<p>And note <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/where-did-jeffrey-epstein-get-all-his-money/a-75944096" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dw.com/en/where-did-jeffrey-epstein-get-all-his-money/a-75944096&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0u38HxpPRrxol_ZlowpJpd">How Epstein got so rich</a>, by Timothy Rooks for <i>Deutsche Welle</i>, 16 Feb 2026.</p>
<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>
<p>By focussing on Jeffrey Epstein&#8217;s sex crimes, we may be letting him and his contacts off lightly.</p>
<p>Epstein was a money man; a miner of money, paying minors while playing majors. An Israel man. A scholar, majoring in influence, with particularly strong links to politicians and businessmen on the right of the political left; people like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Mandelson" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Mandelson&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2zR5t8SIqK5Js8_8qh-S82">Peter Mandelson</a> and Ehud Barak. A <a href="https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/2026/02/24/what-is-israels-hexagon-plan-and-can-it-counter-both-iran-and-turkey.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/2026/02/24/what-is-israels-hexagon-plan-and-can-it-counter-both-iran-and-turkey.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0tSQQexqLtJEadAr4SCpyJ">Hexagon Alliance</a> man, who died ignominiously before his work came to its present fruition. A man trading in big guns and little women. A man serving what has become the world&#8217;s most lucrative and secretive industry; the high-tech high-chat world of asymmetric warfare, geopolitics, and draining swamps. Many of Epstein&#8217;s many contacts, now distancing themselves from him, will have imbibed the same <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drinking_the_Kool-Aid" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drinking_the_Kool-Aid&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773436148594000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0huG9C8jqIx2uc8eaEGRU1">Kool-Aid</a>.</p>
<p>Epstein was a man who did much towards creating the new circum-Arabia circular economy, whereby Israel facilitates the UAE to supply military tech to the RSF to extract gold and materials from Sudan so that Israel (and its proxies, big and small) can devise, manufacture, and test more military tech to sell to the UAE to supply RSF terrorists …</p>
<p align="center">*******</p>
<p>Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</p>
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		<title>Keith Rankin Analysis &#8211; UAE, Israel, and The Hexagon Alliance</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/11/keith-rankin-analysis-uae-israel-and-the-hexagon-alliance/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Keith Rankin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Mar 2026 03:28:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israeli wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Rankin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leadership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lebanon]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Analysis by Keith Rankin, 10 March 2026. There is a widespread perception in Aotearoa New Zealand that the &#8216;Gulf States&#8217; are similar, and closely aligned to each other. The States most familiar to New Zealanders are United Arab Emirates (&#8216;Dubai&#8217; to the many New Zealanders who do not appreciate that Dubai is just one of ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Analysis by Keith Rankin, 10 March 2026.</p>
<figure id="attachment_1075787" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-1075787" style="width: 230px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><a href="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-1075787 size-medium" src="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-230x300.jpg" alt="" width="230" height="300" srcset="https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-230x300.jpg 230w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-783x1024.jpg 783w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-768x1004.jpg 768w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-1175x1536.jpg 1175w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-696x910.jpg 696w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-1068x1396.jpg 1068w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin-321x420.jpg 321w, https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20201212_KeithRankin.jpg 1426w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 230px) 100vw, 230px" /></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-1075787" class="wp-caption-text">Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</figcaption></figure>
<p><strong>There is a widespread perception in Aotearoa New Zealand that the &#8216;Gulf States&#8217; are similar, and closely aligned to each other.</strong> The States most familiar to New Zealanders are United Arab Emirates (&#8216;Dubai&#8217; to the many New Zealanders who do not appreciate that Dubai is just one of six Emirates) and Qatar.</p>
<p>Further we&#8217;ve long-forgotten the dispute which, not-so-long-ago, led to Qatar being isolated by the Saudi Arabia, UAE, and other Sunni Arab countries (noting Egypt in particular). This started with the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_diplomatic_conflict" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%25E2%2580%2593Saudi_Arabia_diplomatic_conflict&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0s78CCvZajYVSBNVVhce2Q">Qatar–Saudi Arabia diplomatic conflict</a>, which in 2017 escalated into the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar_diplomatic_crisis" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar_diplomatic_crisis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2dl-SaiSczK7lS_MlRfgvS">Qatar diplomatic crisis</a>. This conflict related to allegations of inappropriate financial connections between Qatar and Hamas. While apparent <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar_diplomatic_crisis#Resolution" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar_diplomatic_crisis%23Resolution&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1AFykMC1k_HFV10q-5_Z4h">resolution</a> took place in 2021, there is now a new division; a division even more opaque to casual western observers, and noting that western observations of other parts of the world are rarely anything other than casual.</p>
<p>In October 2021, the popular government of Sudan (the result of a popular revolution in 2019) was overthrown by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw32BX1QYxw7bLNCQY5ULio4">Sudanese Armed Forces</a>. On the eve of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudanese_coup_d%2527%25C3%25A9tat&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2O48bm2X2VSYc0BSyC8XOM">coup</a>, &#8216;Protestors held signs stating, &#8220;the Emirates will not govern us, nor the implementation of Sisi&#8221;.&#8217; For Sisi, read Egypt.</p>
<p>Essentially the anti-Qatar nations were developing their interests in the military and economic exploitation of Sudan. Then, in April 2023, the two parties to the 2021 coup – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2IIm8J9j-z0ENswuYfJQE5">Rapid Support Forces</a> – split in spectacular fashion, creating the present <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_(2023%E2%80%93present)" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_(2023%25E2%2580%2593present)&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1MVsJSukOa2kK8_6kZgfdw">Sudanese Civil War</a>. The UAE backed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while Egypt and Saudi Arabia backed the SAF. This is a hideous civil war (see my <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2505/S00043/war-in-sudan.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2505/S00043/war-in-sudan.htm&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1spe4dsBm524WMvlqiQwx8">War in Sudan</a>), with most of the reported atrocities allegedly being committed by the RSF.</p>
<p>This present division of civil-war-sponsorship is <b><i>compounded by the diverging relationships of these three Arab states – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE – with Israel</i></b>. The Trump-sponsored 2020 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3d41g3qDTdMVvlKIW_WP_l">Abraham Accords</a> brought Saudi Arabia and UAE (and Bahrain) into line with Egypt as an ally-of-sorts with Israel. According to this Wikipedia account:</p>
<p>&#8220;On August 14, 2021, the Associated Press reported that <b><i>a secret oil deal between Israel and the Emirates, struck in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords</i></b>, had turned the Israeli resort town of Eilat into a waypoint for Emirati oil headed for Western markets. It was expected to endanger the Red Sea reefs, which host some of the greatest coral diversity on the planet. As Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia also share the gulf&#8217;s waters, an ecological disaster was likely to impact their ecosystems.&#8221;</p>
<p><b><i>Since then, relations between UAE (and Bahrain) and Israel became particularly close</i></b>. Relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia (and Egypt), on the other hand have soured since the outbreak of the present Sudan war. At the same time, as revealed by Sudan, relations between UAE and these two large Red Sea nations have substantially deteriorated.</p>
<p>That is the backdrop to Iran&#8217;s greater hostility, at present, towards the UAE than towards Qatar. Western reports of the present conflict tend to equate Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait as &#8216;peas in a pod&#8217;. The reality is that UAE is a substantial – albeit understated – ally of Israel. (There has been suspicion that UAE has provided substantial secret support for Israel in its recent wars, especially Israel&#8217;s genocidal war against Hamas in Gaza. Iran will be well aware of the extent of this UAE-Israel alliance.)</p>
<p><b><i>UAE is now in an antagonist relationship with Egypt and Saudi Arabia</i></b>. (Indeed, it&#8217;s now UAE rather than Qatar which is the isolate on the Arabian Peninsula.) In Sudan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia back the SAF. The RSF, on the other hand, is funded and supplied through an opaque deal with UAE; which means that Israel – through its UAE proxy – may in fact be the most important backer of the RSF. And we should note that Israel is, formally, the most important global proxy of the United States; though it may now be that the United States has become Israel&#8217;s most important proxy.</p>
<p>(For security reasons, and as a protest against the UAE&#8217;s geopolitical cynicism, I decided that I would never again fly to London via the Emirates. Tip for Air New Zealand: put on more flights to Vancouver, and publicise the route to London via Canada.)</p>
<p><b>Qatar, Hamas, and Israel</b></p>
<p>The matter of Qatar&#8217;s financial connections with Hamas are distinctly murky. I quote here from the ABC (Australian) <b><i>60 Minutes</i></b> documentary <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/the-forever-war/103574742" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/the-forever-war/103574742&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1EmEjyGPl4VjKtzlv1SH0H">Gaza, the Forever War</a> (11 March 2024). The programme features interviews with former senior Israeli political and military personnel.</p>
<p>Excerpt from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/the-forever-war/103574742" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/the-forever-war/103574742&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1EmEjyGPl4VjKtzlv1SH0H">transcript</a>:</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: It now appears that Netanyahu wanted to sow seeds of division between the hardliners who ruled Gaza and the more conciliatory Palestinian Authority, running the West Bank.</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shin_Bet" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shin_Bet&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1BG13y3Jf1GsMtWIVcQLpT">SHIN BET</a>: We did something very, very simple. We did everything in order to make sure that Hamas will go on controlling Gaza and Palestinian Authority will control the West Bank so they will fight each other.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Netanyahu allowed Qatar to give massive amounts of cash to Hamas in Gaza.</p>
<p>AMI AYALON, FMR HEAD OF SHIN BET: So what we did with the permission of our prime Minister is to let Qatar to transfer a huge amount of money in cash, probably more than $1.4 billion, and to make sure that they will be able to send people to work in Israel and to achieve or to get intelligence if they need. By doing it, we increase the power of Hamas.</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: That served Netanyahu who wanted to avoid any discussion of two state solution.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: So, are you saying Benjamin Netanyahu deliberately boosted Hamas to try to prevent a Palestinian state?</p>
<p>EHUD BARAK, FMR PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: Yeah, sure. He deliberately and systematically even told on record, whoever wants to avoid the threat of a two-state solution has to support my policy of paying protection money to the Hamas.</p>
<p>JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: Netanyahu maintains the Qatar money was to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe. Having helped build up Hamas, Netanyahu has vowed to destroy it.</p>
<p>YEHUDA SHAUL, FMR ISRAELI ARMY COMMANDER: He fed the beast and it exploded in our face.</p>
<p><b>The Hexagon Alliance</b></p>
<p>From <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/22/netanyahu-says-israel-will-forge-regional-alliance-to-rival-radical-axis" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/22/netanyahu-says-israel-will-forge-regional-alliance-to-rival-radical-axis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1k_4u-K4_n7L_YRl5pRq1e">Netanyahu says Israel will forge regional alliance to rival &#8216;radical axes&#8217;</a> (<i>Al Jazeera</i>, 22 Feb 2026) we have: &#8216;Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges, also referred to Greece, Cyprus and other unnamed Arab, African and Asian countries. &#8220;In the vision I see before me, we will create an entire system, essentially a <i>hexagon</i> of alliances around or within the Middle East,&#8221; Netanyahu said, according to the <i>Times of Israel</i>. &#8220;The intention here is to create an axis of nations that see eye to eye on the reality, challenges, and goals against the radical axes, both the radical Shia axis, which we have struck very hard, and the emerging radical Sunni axis&#8221;.&#8217;</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/will-ethiopia-be-part-of-israels-hexagon-alliance-rivalling-its-enemies" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/will-ethiopia-be-part-of-israels-hexagon-alliance-rivalling-its-enemies&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1aex1KftqL1fsHRneidhmx">Will Ethiopia be part of Israel&#8217;s &#8216;hexagon&#8217; alliance rivalling its enemies?</a> (<i>Al Jazeera</i>, 25 Feb 2026): &#8220;In December, Israel recognised Somaliland&#8217;s statehood, becoming the first country to do so. Months before, there were unconfirmed talks about plans to move displaced Palestinians to Somaliland or to South Sudan, another key Israeli ally in the region. Analysts speculate that countries like South Sudan and the United Arab Emirates, another close friend of Israel, may also recognise Somaliland.&#8221;</p>
<p>So the hexagon would appear to be Greece, Cyprus, India, UAE, Somaliland, and Ethiopia. Ethiopia has a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Ethiopia" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Ethiopia&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3zoPNHSIGl0Ym4UB8eKwq2">Judeo-Christian heritage</a>, in sharp contract to most of its regional neighbours. (See my reference to <i>Judeo-Christian techno-supremacism</i> in <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2603/S00005/the-greater-evil.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2603/S00005/the-greater-evil.htm&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw21x73bNNVv3Ap7iSQ1WSZk">The Greater Evil</a>, <i>Scoop</i>, 2 March 2026.)</p>
<p>Re the &#8220;emerging radical Sunni axis&#8221;, this article from India – <a href="https://chakranewz.com/insights/the-hexagon-alliance" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://chakranewz.com/insights/the-hexagon-alliance&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0ARUsWTIdQc5kyBgFyUAjf">The Hexagon Alliance</a>, by Ayaan Ahmad and Arjun Dev Singh, 26 Feb 2026 – suggests &#8220;Sunni-majority states such as Türkiye, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, alongside Jordan and Iraq&#8221;. You would have to add Egypt to that.</p>
<p>In this context, we should note that Israeli politicians have already been talking up Türkiye as the next &#8220;threat&#8221;. See <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/turkish-threat-talked-up-israel-netanyahu-focuses-new-alliances" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/turkish-threat-talked-up-israel-netanyahu-focuses-new-alliances&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0zZ8TnmoPsyQmDggF7h5y_">Turkish &#8216;threat&#8217; talked up in Israel as Netanyahu focuses on new alliances</a>, <i>Al Jazeera</i>, 23 Feb 2026. And, noting a joint expression of Islamophobia, <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/article/b3859ed76f89" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.trtworld.com/article/b3859ed76f89&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2fqW_6XlzWnfj1P0frVco1">Modi in Israel: ‘Hexagon&#8217; alliance and the ideological convergence of Hindutva and Zionism</a>, <i>TRT World</i>, 2 Mar 2026.</p>
<p>And from <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/9/21/is-turkiye-israel-next-target-middle-east" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/9/21/is-turkiye-israel-next-target-middle-east&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw146YO4jtgUV9KOwcg7vL0D">Is Türkiye Israel’s next target in the Middle East?</a> (<i>Al Jazeera</i>, 21 Sep 2025): &#8220;In Washington, Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, suggested that Türkiye could be Israel’s next target and warned that it should not rely on its NATO membership for protection.&#8221;</p>
<p>This reflects the significance of Greece and Cyprus within the hexagon. It also points to the United Kingdom, indirectly. Part of the island of Cyprus is British sovereign territory; ie not at all a &#8216;foreign airbase&#8217;. And another part of the island of Cyprus has been a Turkish realm state, albeit unrecognised by the international community (as Somaliland – formally British Somaliland – is also unrecognised).</p>
<p>We may note that the tension between UAE and Saudi Arabia is revealed in Google Maps. Despite there being a long border between the two countries, there is only one road crossing, to the far west of Abu Dhabi. Indeed, Doha in Qatar is closer to that border crossing than is either Dubai or the city of Abu Dhabi. 95% of UAE&#8217;s population lives in that country&#8217;s northeast corner. Along most of the border, there are parallel roads, but no crossing points. In Saudi Arabia that road is Highway 95. In UAE, its road is labelled &#8216;Boarder [sic] Patrol Road CIVILIAN VEHICLE PROHIBITED&#8217;.</p>
<p><b>The Yemen and Somaliland affairs</b></p>
<p>As noted by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/will-ethiopia-be-part-of-israels-hexagon-alliance-rivalling-its-enemies" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/will-ethiopia-be-part-of-israels-hexagon-alliance-rivalling-its-enemies&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1aex1KftqL1fsHRneidhmx">Al Jazeera</a>: &#8216;Saudi Arabia is embroiled in an ongoing rift with the United Arab Emirates over how to deal with the conflict in Yemen.&#8217;</p>
<p>Yemen is one of those many places that are geopolitically important, but completely off New Zealand&#8217;s media radar. Historically Yemen was host to an important Jewish population (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemenite_Jews" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemenite_Jews&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1E0gKotELKB0TwEeseE4YN">Yemenite Jews</a>). Southern Yemen – especially Aden – was, for a century, a critical cog in the British Empire. Post-colonially, Southern Yemen became a &#8216;radical&#8217; country in the world order, whereas Northern Yemen was a religiously conservative society, the Shia <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaydism" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaydism&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Fx-9q2OBbIg-jgFbTAwTj">Zaydi Imamate</a> until 1962 and then the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen_Arab_Republic" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen_Arab_Republic&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw09Z5SFnwsoNWvB6CDZj2Rd">Yemen Arab Republic</a>.</p>
<p>In more recent years, that conservative north has become a Shia &#8216;Iranian proxy&#8217;, the &#8216;Houthis&#8217;. And the internationally recognised government of Yemen – operative in the south – has become, in that same sense, a Saudi Arabian proxy regime.</p>
<p>On 2 December 2025, the failed <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Southern_Yemen_campaign" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%25E2%2580%25932026_Southern_Yemen_campaign&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3IibcnukMhQy76fCfRLW9H">2025–2026 Southern Yemen campaign</a> began, essentially an attempt by the UAE-backed <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Transitional_Council" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Transitional_Council&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0tzwcB0DdKwV66SHRTPUNU">Southern Transitional Council</a> (STC) to overthrow the Saudi-backed government. It was in the midst of this Israeli-backed campaign that Israel became the first country to recognise Somaliland – close to the geographical Horn of Africa&#8217;, and juxtaposed to Aden – as a sovereign state.</p>
<p>This has to be understood in the context of Israel&#8217;s Hexagon Alliance; indeed, an attempt to impose UAE/Israeli control over the geopolitically sensitive southern coastline of the Arabian peninsula. From <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/16/why-israels-recognition-of-somaliland-backfired" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/16/why-israels-recognition-of-somaliland-backfired&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3TNDiUy32Rb-VUQyruV1sL">Why Israel&#8217;s recognition of Somaliland backfired</a>, (16 Jun 2026) by Abdi Aynte, former minister of planning and international cooperation of Somalia: &#8220;By empowering breakaway regions, Israel, with the backing of key regional partners, especially the United Arab Emirates, has sought to reshape the regional order.&#8221;</p>
<p>Aynte: &#8220;What some experts describe as an &#8216;Axis of Secession&#8217; is already visible in Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Syria. Led by Israel and supported by a network of regional partners, this axis targets countries whose central governments, hollowed out by conflict, exercise only partial control over their territory. The logic is simple: weaken central authority, bolster breakaway regions, and cultivate dependent entities willing to align with Israel and sign onto the Abraham Accords.&#8221; Aynte calls these nations &#8220;emerging client polities&#8221; of Israel, though resistance remains strong in Somalia, Yemen and Sudan.</p>
<p>Beyond these smaller fractured nation states, there are several large nation states in the region which Israel is trying to fracture. While these attempts in Iran are all too visible, a literal smokescreen, quietly Israel is adding Ethiopia – a country with 100,000 people – to its client list. We note that Ethiopia is hosting RSF training camps, further undermining Sudan&#8217;s sovereignty. See Reuters: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigations/ethiopia-builds-secret-camp-train-sudan-rsf-fighters-sources-say-2026-02-10/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/investigations/ethiopia-builds-secret-camp-train-sudan-rsf-fighters-sources-say-2026-02-10/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WFZWzb3g8jvuJqGGpX-ZX">Ethiopia builds secret camp to train Sudan RSF fighters, sources say</a>, 10 Feb 2026.</p>
<p>This is not regional geopolitics which New Zealand can naively pretend-away. Aynte adds: &#8220;Somaliland&#8217;s decision to cultivate ties with Taiwan inevitably drew Beijing&#8217;s attention&#8221;. &#8220;The result [of Israel&#8217;s meddling through client third parties] is an increasingly crowded and volatile theatre, where global power rivalries intersect with unresolved local aspirations.&#8221; &#8220;Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, once close partners, are now increasingly at odds, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt have begun coordinating to counter what they view as a destabilising &#8216;Axis of Secession&#8217;.&#8221;</p>
<p>And we note &#8220;widespread claims that Israel is exploring resettlement of Palestinian refugees from Gaza in Somaliland&#8221;. (An echo of Britain&#8217;s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Uganda_Programme" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Uganda_Programme&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw25v9Z66tDyHssjEbqiL7nV">former plan</a> to settle European Jews in Uganda!)</p>
<p>If we look at a map of the so-called &#8216;Middle East&#8217; (nobody refers to Near East or Far East anymore!) and paint the hexagon countries in &#8216;Star-of-David&#8217; blue – including Israel itself and its occupied territories, and including the RSF-controlled parts of Sudan – the obvious missing links are Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran. Hence the present war in Iran, and the concerns already noted re Türkiye. But what about Egypt?</p>
<p><b>Egypt, Iran and the Bible</b></p>
<p>Even today, Israel&#8217;s reference point is the Old Testament of The Bible. Note Al Jazeera&#8217;s Inside Story episode of 2 March 2026, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/2/what-dangers-does-the-iran-war-pose-for-israel" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/2/what-dangers-does-the-iran-war-pose-for-israel&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3u1JwNovGUFNnypRZHPhDm">What dangers does the Iran war pose for Israel?</a>, featuring Mitchell Barak, &#8220;former speech writer for Israeli PM Ariel Sharon&#8221;, noting that Sharon was nicknamed <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butcher_of_Beirut" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butcher_of_Beirut&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0SZIPX12G9lpZZQKQt0cdQ">Butcher of Beirut</a> on account of his responsibility for the 1982 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabra_and_Shatila_massacre" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabra_and_Shatila_massacre&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1sQq9DVI3P9ZxreR7xM33P">Sabra and Shatila massacre</a>.</p>
<p>Interviewer: &#8220;Mitchell, I&#8217;m going to start things off with you. Please give us a broad brushstroke of how you see things unfolding.&#8221;</p>
<p>Barak: &#8220;First of all, I&#8217;d like to wish a Ramadan Kareem to all of the people watching who are celebrating and commemorating this holiday. It is also a fast day in Israel, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_of_Esther" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_of_Esther&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2HKCQTTiVKMaD8EC7QI65h">Fast of Esther</a>, which commemorates ironically and interestingly enough the victory of the Jewish people over an evil Persian empire 2,500 years ago.&#8221;</p>
<p>He is referring to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purim" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purim&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3tzW2_3Pqlln2dy2drfTKr">Purim</a> holiday. Note, in these Wikipedia references, the references to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amalek" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amalek&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2WI9VGfvb4H39owS8Pqh9e">Amalek</a>, the word that Benjamin Netanyahu invoked to justify the subsequent genocide of Gaza. Refer <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/religionandethicsreport/what-s-the-biblical-story-of-amalek-evoked-by-netanyahu/103380802" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/religionandethicsreport/what-s-the-biblical-story-of-amalek-evoked-by-netanyahu/103380802&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Mjb8Xh7_aqn40mmETp7NI">The Biblical story of Amalek evoked by Netanyahu</a>, <i>ABC</i>24 Jan 2024.</p>
<p>Barak did not go on to answer the &#8220;broad brushstroke&#8221; question.</p>
<p>Two polities which feature strongly in that biblical narrative are Egypt and (in the guise of Babylon) Persia aka Iran. To fully understand Israel&#8217;s agenda today, we really need to see that regime and its cultural acolytes as playing a long game; a very long game. Israel is trying to reverse the wrongs that it believed it suffered, around 2½ to 3 thousand years ago, at the hands of those two ancient civilisations. (The irony is that Israel denied that there was any historical context – not even a day&#8217;s historical context – to the &#8216;blue-sky&#8217; shock events of 7 October 2023.)</p>
<p>Seen in this context, it is credible that the principal target of the Hexagon Alliance is Egypt, not Türkiye.</p>
<p>And, re the current role of the United Arab Emirates in that fraught region, Australia should not provide military support to Israel&#8217;s secret ally and proxy. (See <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-10/australia-to-provide-military-support-to-gulf-states/106435248" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-10/australia-to-provide-military-support-to-gulf-states/106435248&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1773271746313000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2g0fTmGk7leouqvqSHGLjB">Australia to provide military support to Gulf states attacked by Iran</a>, ABC 10 March 2026.)</p>
<p align="center">*******</p>
<p>Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.</p>
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		<title>West Papua’s humanitarian crisis stalls Prabowo’s ‘global peacemaker’ credibility bid</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/10/west-papuas-humanitarian-crisis-stalls-prabowos-global-peacemaker-credibility-bid/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Asia Pacific Report]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2026 03:15:08 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[ANALYSIS: By Ali MirinIndonesian President Prabowo Subianto has increasingly presented himself on the international stage as a mediator and promoter of peace. Yet this global diplomatic posture raises a critical question: how credible is Indonesia’s claim to peace leadership while a prolonged humanitarian crisis continues in West Papua? In late February 2026, Prabowo offered Indonesia’s ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>ANALYSIS:</strong> <em>By Ali Mirin<br /></em><br />Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has increasingly presented himself on the international stage as a mediator and promoter of peace.</p>
<p>Yet this global diplomatic posture raises a critical question: how credible is Indonesia’s claim to peace leadership while a prolonged humanitarian crisis continues in West Papua?</p>
<p>In late February 2026, Prabowo offered <a href="https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesias-prabowo-ready-to-fly-to-tehran-as-mediator" rel="nofollow">Indonesia’s services to mediate</a> rising tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, even stating he was prepared to travel to Tehran if both parties agreed to dialogue.</p>
<p>The message was reinforced when former Indonesian vice-president Jusuf Kalla met Iran’s ambassador, Mohammad Boroujerdi, on 3 March 2026 to <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-iran-united-states-israel-prabowo-subianto-mediator-5978356" rel="nofollow">reiterate Indonesia’s readiness to facilitate diplomatic engagement</a>.</p>
<p>In response, Iran publicly welcomed the gesture but tempered expectations.</p>
<p>Iranian officials insisted that any meaningful mediation must include condemnation of US and Israeli military actions, warning that diplomatic initiatives without political clarity may have limited effectiveness.</p>
<p>The exchange highlighted both Indonesia’s aspiration to play a larger diplomatic role and the complexities of international conflict mediation.</p>
<p><strong>Peacebroker limitations</strong><br />However, Indonesia’s attempt to position itself as a global peace broker has already faced significant limitations. In 2023, Prabowo proposed a peace plan for the war between Russia and Ukraine.</p>
<p>The proposal, which included controversial suggestions such as a demilitarised zone and a referendum in disputed territories, was quickly rejected by Ukrainian officials. The response exposed the limited influence of Indonesia’s mediation efforts in conflicts far beyond Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>While presenting himself internationally as a peacemaker, critics argue that Prabowo has largely paid lip service to human rights at home, particularly regarding the unresolved crisis in West Papua.</p>
<p><iframe loading="lazy" title="YouTube video player" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xiGXejgPpMo?si=ny85B9D4asc_OTMU" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen">[embedded content]</iframe><br /><em>Indonesian protesters denounce US link over Iran war         Video: Al Jazeera</em></p>
<p>While Indonesia promotes its diplomatic role in international conflicts, violence and instability continue to affect civilians in West Papua.</p>
<p>On 11 February 2026, only weeks before Prabowo’s international mediation initiative gained attention, a small civilian aircraft operated by Smart Air came under gunfire shortly after landing at Korowai Batu airstrip in Boven Digoel, West Papua.</p>
<p>A spokesperson linked to the military wing of Free Papua Movement (TPNPB- OPM) later claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that the aircraft had allegedly been used to transport Indonesian security forces.</p>
<p>The roots of the crisis stretch back to the early 1960s, when Indonesia invaded and took control of the territory following the withdrawal of Dutch colonial administration.</p>
<p><strong>Act of Free Choice controversy</strong><br />The subsequent 1969 referendum, known as the Act of Free Choice, remains one of the most controversial political processes in modern Southeast Asian and South Pacific history.</p>
<p>Rather than a universal vote, approximately 1025 selected representatives voted under significant political and military pressure.</p>
<p>Many Papuans and international observers argue that the process failed to meet internationally recognized standards for self-determination. As a result, the legitimacy of the referendum continues to be contested, and its legacy remains a central grievance fueling decades of political resistance and armed conflict.</p>
<p>For many analysts and human rights advocates, the Papua conflict cannot simply be framed as a domestic security problem. Instead, it represents a protracted humanitarian and political crisis that has yet to find a comprehensive and inclusive resolution.</p>
<p>In this sense, the issue has become what some observers describe as a long-standing wound within the Indonesian state.</p>
<p>Such incidents highlight the tragic reality faced by ordinary Papuans, who often find themselves caught between military operations and Papuan resistance attacks.</p>
<p>Civilians bear the brunt of a conflict that has persisted for decades without meaningful political dialogue capable of addressing its underlying causes.</p>
<p><strong>Rising internal displacement in West Papua</strong><br />According to reports by human rights organisations and humanitarian groups, displacement in West Papua has increased significantly in recent years.</p>
<p>The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has risen dramatically, from roughly 55,000 at the end of 2023 to more than 103,000 by October 2025. Many displaced communities face severe shortages of food, healthcare, education, and basic security.</p>
<p>These figures reflect a broader systemic failure to protect civilians and provide sustainable solutions for affected communities. Despite decades of development initiatives and official rhetoric emphasising stability and prosperity in Papua, the lived reality for many residents remains defined by insecurity and displacement.</p>
<p>Prabowo’s own military history also continues to shape international perceptions of <a href="https://www.amnestyusa.org/blog/in-indonesia-prabowos-dark-past-casts-a-pall-over-his-presidency/" rel="nofollow">Indonesia’s human rights record</a>. During the Indonesian occupation of East Timor between 1975 and 1999, Prabowo served as an officer in Indonesia’s elite special forces, Kopassus.</p>
<p>Human rights organisations have linked him to operations accused of abuses against civilians during that period.</p>
<p>Following the 1999 referendum that ultimately led to East Timor’s independence, the United Nations supported investigations into violence carried out by Indonesian-backed militias and security forces.</p>
<p>Although Prabowo was never tried or convicted by an international court, activists and some Timorese leaders have long argued that senior Indonesian officers should have faced deeper scrutiny.</p>
<p><strong>Shaping of credibility</strong><br />In international diplomacy, credibility is often shaped not only by external initiatives but also by a state’s domestic human rights record. When internal conflicts remain unresolved, claims to global moral leadership can face heightened scrutiny.</p>
<p>Prabowo was also involved in military operations in Papua during the 1990s. One of the most widely discussed incidents was the 1996 Mapenduma hostage crisis in the highlands of what is now Nduga Regency.</p>
<p>Human rights organisations have documented allegations of abuses committed by Indonesian security forces during that period.</p>
<p>Additional controversies have surrounded claims that aircraft bearing the emblem of the International Committee of the Red Cross were misused during operations. Such allegations, whether proven or not, continue to raise questions about adherence to international humanitarian law and contribute to lingering distrust among Papuan communities.</p>
<p>Taken together, these historical and contemporary dynamics create a sharp contrast between Indonesia’s global diplomatic ambitions and the unresolved realities within its own borders.</p>
<p>In international diplomacy, credibility is closely tied to domestic consistency.<br />It is difficult to advocate peace abroad while unresolved grievances and allegations of human rights violations persist at home.</p>
<p>For Indonesia, genuine leadership in global peacemaking would require more than diplomatic offers on the world stage. It would involve confronting the deeper structural issues underlying the conflict in West Papua.</p>
<p><strong>Ensuring accountability</strong><br />This would include ensuring accountability for past abuses, protecting civil liberties, and opening inclusive political dialogue that allows Papuans to meaningfully participate in shaping their own future.</p>
<p>Without such reforms, Indonesia’s peace diplomacy risks being perceived less as principled international engagement and more as a form of strategic public relations. The gap between Jakarta’s diplomatic rhetoric and the lived experiences of Papuan civilians remains stark.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Indonesia’s credibility as a global peacemaker will depend not only on its willingness to mediate conflicts abroad but also on its ability to address the long-standing humanitarian and political crisis within West Papua.</p>
<p>Until that gap is bridged, Indonesia’s aspirations for global diplomatic leadership will continue to face serious questions about legitimacy and moral authority.</p>
<p>The continued instability in West Papua also has broader regional implications for the Pacific, where several governments and civil society groups have increasingly raised concerns about the humanitarian situation faced by indigenous West Papuans.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/?s=Ali+Mirin" rel="nofollow">Ali Mirin</a> is a West Papuan from the Kimyal tribe in the highlands bordering the Star Mountains region of Papua New Guinea. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from Flinders University in Adelaide, South Australia.</em></p>
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		<title>’10 classrooms full of children’ – US-Israeli war kills hundreds of Iranian, Lebanese kids</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/10/10-classrooms-full-of-children-us-israeli-war-kills-hundreds-of-iranian-lebanese-kids/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2026 01:15:05 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Zahra Sultana has mocked US and Israeli pretensions, saying in a BBC interview on Sunday — International Women’s Day — that the girls in the Minab school were slaughtered “apparently to liberate women”. SPECIAL REPORT: By Brett Wilkins of Common Dreams US and Israeli airstrikes have killed nearly 300 Iranian and Lebanese children over the ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Zahra Sultana has mocked US and Israeli pretensions, saying in a BBC interview on Sunday — International Women’s Day — that the girls in the Minab school were slaughtered “apparently to liberate women”.</em></p>
<p><strong>SPECIAL REPORT:</strong> <em>By Brett Wilkins of Common Dreams</em></p>
<p>US and Israeli airstrikes have killed nearly 300 Iranian and Lebanese <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/children" rel="nofollow">children</a> over the past nine days as the attackers target apartment towers, single-family homes, schools, medical facilities, and other civilian <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/infrastructure" rel="nofollow">infrastructure</a>.</p>
<p>Iran’s Health Ministry <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-children-make-up-30-of-those-killed-in-us-israeli-attacks/3855101" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">said</a> Sunday that 198 women and 190 minors have been killed by US and Israeli attacks since February 28, including six children under the age of 5. The youngest reported victim is an 8-month-old girl.</p>
<p>Children account for more than 30 percent of those killed, according to the ministry, which also said that 1044 women and 638 children have been injured.</p>
<p>Overall, Iran said that more than <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/us-israel-attacks-on-iran-death-toll-and-injuries-live-tracker" rel="nofollow">1300 people have been killed by the airstrikes</a>, which are reportedly targeting 30 of the country’s 31 provinces.</p>
<p>The Lebanese Health Ministry <a href="https://qna.org.qa/en/news/news-details?id=lebanese-health-minister-394-fatalities-1130-injuries-due-to-israeli-offensive-in-lebanon&#038;date=8/03/2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">announced</a> Sunday that 394 people, including 42 women and 83 children, have been killed by <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/israel-defense-forces" rel="nofollow">Israel Defence Forces</a> (IDF) attacks after Iran-backed <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/hezbollah" rel="nofollow">Hezbollah</a> joined the war.</p>
<p>The US-based charity Save the Children <a href="https://www.savethechildren.net/news/news-quote-ten-days-conflict-claim-lives-10-classrooms-full-children-83-killed-lebanon" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">noted</a> yesterday that the number of slain Iranian and Lebanese minors is the equivalent of “10 classrooms full of children”.</p>
<p>“It is devastating that airstrikes in <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/lebanon" rel="nofollow">Lebanon</a> have reportedly caused the deaths of 83 children… among nearly 300 children killed in the region,” said Save the Children Lebanon director Nora Ingdal.</p>
<p><strong>‘Not just numbers’</strong><br />“These are not just numbers — these are young lives cut short and children whose futures have been forever scarred by war.”</p>
<p>Israel claims it has killed around 200 Hezbollah fighters. However, the IDF’s routine attacks on apartment towers and other residential buildings have drawn widespread condemnation.</p>
<p>On Sunday, an IDF strike <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/03/09/pink-schoolbook-left-behind-in-rubble-tells-story-of-83-lebanese-children-killed-by-israel-in-week-of-strikes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">massacred 18 people</a> sheltering in an apartment building in Sir El-Gharbiyeh in Nabatieh district. The building was housing some of the nearly 700,000 Lebanese <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167098" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">forcibly displaced</a> by Israeli attacks, including around 200,000 children.</p>
<p>Local officials said women and children were among the victims.</p>
<p>Another IDF aerial massacre in the southern Lebanese town of Tafahata <a href="https://x.com/MegaphoneNewsEN/status/2030641090987012213" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">killed eight people</a>, including five members of the Ezzedine family, whose home was bombed.</p>
<p>“This time is much worse than the previous war,” Nabatieh Civil Defence chief Hussein Faqih <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/03/08/israel-strikes-central-beirut-for-the-first-time/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">told</a> the <em>National</em>, referring to Israel’s 2023-25 attacks on Lebanon that <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2581812/amp#:~:text=Lebanon%20says%20Israel%2DHezbollah%20war%20death%20toll%20at,due%20to%20unrecorded%20deaths%20of%20Lebanese%20citizens." target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">killed more than 4000 people</a>, including nearly 800 women and over 300 children, in retaliation for Hezbollah’s rocket strikes in <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/solidarity" rel="nofollow">solidarity</a> with <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/palestine" rel="nofollow">Palestine</a> during the <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/gaza" rel="nofollow">Gaza</a> <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/genocide" rel="nofollow">genocide</a>.</p>
<p>Israeli attacks on Iran during last year’s 12-Day War also killed more than 1000 Iranians, <a href="https://www.en-hrana.org/twelve-days-under-fire-a-comprehensive-report-on-the-iran-israel-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">including</a> 436 civilians.</p>
<p><strong>Worst reported bombing</strong><br />In the worst reported bombing of the current war — and possibly the deadliest US massacre since more than 400 Iraqis were wiped out in a “<a href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2021/02/15/gulf-war-30-years-ago-memories-shelter-baghdad" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">precision strike</a>” on a <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/baghdad" rel="nofollow">Baghdad</a> bomb shelter during the 1991 Gulf War — around 175 Iranians, most of them young children, were killed in what first responders and victims’ relatives <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-school-double-tap" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">said</a> was a so-called double-tap strike on an elementary school in Minab in southern Iran.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/us-military" rel="nofollow">US military</a> investigators <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/us-bombed-iran-girls-school" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">reportedly</a> believe the strike was carried out by US forces, but President <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/donald-trump" rel="nofollow">Donald Trump</a> has blamed Iran.</p>
<p>On Monday, a group of Democratic US senators lead by Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire <a href="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/shaheen-schatz-murray-reed-warner-coons-statement-on-iran-school-strike" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">said</a> they were “horrified” by the school strike.</p>
<p>“The killing of school children is appalling and unacceptable under any circumstance,” the senators said in a statement. “This incident is particularly concerning in light of [Defence Secretary Pete] Hegseth’s openly cavalier approach to the use of force, including his <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/hegseth-iran" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">statement</a> that US strikes in Iran wouldn’t be bound by ‘stupid rules of engagement,’ in his words.”</p>
<p>Multiple members of the UK Parliament have condemned the killing of Iranian and Lebanese children.</p>
<p>Leftist Independent <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/jeremy-corbyn" rel="nofollow">Jeremy Corbyn</a>, a former Labour leader, <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/jeremycorbyn.bsky.social/post/3mgmoaef64s2j" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">said</a> yesterday on Bluesky: “Classrooms of children in Iran. Hundreds of people in Lebanon. The ongoing genocide in <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/gaza" rel="nofollow">Gaza</a>. The message from our political and media class is clear: Their lives are less valuable than others.”</p>
<p>“Every human being matters, and every human being deserves a life of peace,” Corbyn added.</p>
<p><strong>‘School girls slaughtered’</strong><br />Zahra Sultana, who quit Labour and started the socialist Your Party with Corbyn last year, mocked US and Israeli pretensions, saying in a BBC interview on Sunday — International Women’s Day — that the girls in the Minab school were slaughtered “apparently to liberate women”.</p>
<p>Retaliatory attacks by Iran have killed at least 13 Israelis and wounded nearly 2000 others since February 28, according to Israel’s government. No Israeli child deaths have been reported. Seven US troops and at least 15 people in Gulf Arab nations have also been killed by Iranian counterattacks.</p>
<p>While the world’s focus is on Iran, Israeli occupation forces have continued killing and wounding people in Gaza and the <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/west-bank" rel="nofollow">West Bank</a> of Palestine.</p>
<p>Drop Site News <a href="https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2030926916245451063" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">reported</a> yesterday that eight <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/palestinians" rel="nofollow">Palestinians</a> were killed in Gaza over the past 24 hours, including two women and at least as many children.</p>
<p>More than 250,000 Palestinians have been killed or wounded by Israeli forces since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023. More than 20,000 children have been killed and over 44,000 others wounded.</p>
<p>More than 1 in 4 fatalities have been children in a war for which Israeli Prime Minister <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/benjamin-netanyahu" rel="nofollow">Benjamin Netanyahu</a> is <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/icc-arrest-warrant-netanyahu" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">wanted</a> by the <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/international-criminal-court" rel="nofollow">International Criminal Court</a> for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes, and Israel is facing a <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/south-africa-icj-genocide-israel" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">genocide case</a> currently before the <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/international-court-of-justice" rel="nofollow">International Court of Justice</a>.</p>
<p>Since the <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/911" rel="nofollow">9/11</a> attacks, US-led wars have left nearly 1 million people dead in more than half a dozen countries in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa—over 400,000 of them civilians, <a href="https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/findings" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">according to</a> the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs.</p>
<p>“Every war is a war on children, and once again we are seeing them pay the highest price for a conflict they neither started nor had a say in,” Ingdal said yesterday.</p>
<p>“Wars have laws, and children must be off limits in every conflict,” she added. “World leaders must act urgently to prevent further escalation. There must be an immediate cessation of hostilities, and all parties must uphold international humanitarian law and do everything in their power to protect civilians—especially children.”</p>
<p><em>Republished under Creative Commons.</em></p>
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		<title>Thousands of protesters in London demand end to US, Israeli war on Iran</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/08/thousands-of-protesters-in-london-demand-end-to-us-israeli-war-on-iran/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Asia Pacific Report]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2026 06:15:05 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Thousands of British anti-war demonstrators yesterday marched through central London, calling for an immediate halt to US and Israeli military operations against Iran and an end to arms sales to Israel, Anadolu Ajansi reports. According to the Manchester Evening News, the protest drew between 5000 and 6000 participants, based on estimates from the Metropolitan Police. ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thousands of British anti-war demonstrators yesterday marched through central London, calling for an immediate halt to US and Israeli military operations against Iran and an end to arms sales to Israel, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en" rel="nofollow">Anadolu Ajansi reports</a><em>.</em></p>
<p>According to the <em>Manchester Evening News</em>, the protest drew between 5000 and 6000 participants, based on estimates from the Metropolitan Police.</p>
<p>The rally began at Millbank near Victoria Tower Gardens at noon and was organised by a coalition of activist groups, including the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), Stop the War Coalition and the Palestine Solidarity Campaign.</p>
<p>Protesters marched toward the US Embassy carrying placards reading “Stop Trump’s Wars” and “No War on Iran,” while others waved Iranian and Palestinian flags.</p>
<p>Some demonstrators also carried portraits of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.</p>
<p>Organisers described the military strikes as “illegal” and warned that escalating conflict could place millions of civilians at risk across the Middle East.</p>
<p>Chris Nineham, vice-chair of the Stop the War Coalition, said the situation represented one of “the most dangerous global moments in decades.”</p>
<p><strong>‘Murder and mayhem’</strong><br />“[US President Donald] Trump and [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu are creating murder and mayhem across the Middle East,” Nineham said in a video posted on social media from the protest.</p>
<p>“They are risking spreading war across the Middle East, and they are creating the conditions of volatility and instability around the world, and what is disgraceful is that our government is allowing British bases to be used to promote this mayhem.”</p>
<p>He added that many people in Britain opposed the war and called for a broad and vocal movement to mobilise against the conflict and advocate for peace.</p>
<p>Tensions in the Middle East have escalated since the US and Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran on February 28, killing more than 1300 people, including Khamenei and more than 165 schoolgirls, and senior military officials.</p>
<p>Iran has retaliated with sweeping barrages of its own that have targeted US bases, diplomatic facilities, and military personnel across the region, as well as multiple Israeli cities. At least 11 Israelis have been killed.</p>
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		<title>165 massacred schoolgirls in Iran – and the silence that exposes the West’s moral selectivity</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/08/165-massacred-schoolgirls-in-iran-and-the-silence-that-exposes-the-wests-moral-selectivity/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2026 04:15:11 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[ANALYSIS: By Hana Saada In an era when images can circle the globe in seconds and newsrooms claim to uphold universal humanitarian principles; one might expect the killing of 165 schoolgirls inside a primary school to dominate international headlines. One would expect emergency debates, moral outrage, and relentless coverage. Yet in the southeastern Iranian city ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>ANALYSIS:</strong> <em>By Hana Saada</em></p>
<p>In an era when images can circle the globe in seconds and newsrooms claim to uphold universal humanitarian principles; one might expect the killing of 165 schoolgirls inside a primary school to dominate international headlines.</p>
<p>One would expect emergency debates, moral outrage, and relentless coverage.</p>
<p>Yet in the southeastern Iranian city of Minab — where Israeli-American strikes obliterated classrooms filled with children — the world’s most influential media institutions have responded with something far more revealing than condemnation: they have responded with silence.</p>
<p>These were not combatants. They were not militants. They were <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/children" rel="nofollow">children</a> seated at their desks, pens in their hands, notebooks open before them, studying, whispering to classmates, and imagining futures that stretched decades ahead.</p>
<p>In seconds, that ordinary school day turned into a massacre. Desks became splintered wreckage, classrooms collapsed into dust, and rows of coffins replaced rows of pupils.</p>
<p>Yet the names of these girls — 165 lives extinguished before they truly began — barely entered the global conversation.</p>
<p>This omission is not the product of oversight. It reflects something far more structural: the hierarchy of victims that governs much of the contemporary information order.</p>
<p>In theory, modern Western media institutions present themselves as defenders of <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/human-rights" rel="nofollow">human rights</a> and guardians of moral accountability. In practice, their editorial priorities often mirror geopolitical interests with striking precision.</p>
<p><strong>Human rights losing integrity</strong><br />When the deaths of children generate outrage in one context but indifference in another, the moral language surrounding human rights begins to lose its integrity.</p>
<p>When tragedies reinforce established narratives about adversarial states, they are amplified, dramatised, and transformed into global moral spectacles.</p>
<p>But when tragedies expose the human cost of the military actions carried out by Western powers or their closest allies, they are quietly displaced from the front page —if they appear at all.</p>
<p>The massacre in Minab illustrates this logic with devastating clarity.</p>
<p>The deaths of 165 Iranian schoolgirls do not fit comfortably within the dominant geopolitical storyline that portrays Israel and its strategic partners as defenders of stability and order in a turbulent region.</p>
<p>Acknowledging such an atrocity would inevitably raise difficult questions: about the legality of strikes on civilian <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/infrastructure" rel="nofollow">infrastructure</a>, about the ethics of military escalation, and about the widening humanitarian toll of ongoing Israeli-American attacks across the region.</p>
<p>It is therefore far easier to look away.</p>
<p><strong>Minab not isolated tragedy</strong><br />But Minab is not an isolated tragedy. Across <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/lebanon" rel="nofollow">Lebanon</a>, relentless bombardments have repeatedly struck civilian neighbourhoods, reducing homes and streets to rubble.</p>
<p>Across <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/tag/palestine" rel="nofollow">Palestine</a>, entire communities have endured cycles of destruction that claim the lives of children whose only battlefield was the ground beneath their feet. Hospitals, schools, and residential blocks have all entered the expanding geography of devastation.</p>
<p>These events do not occur in a vacuum. They form part of a broader pattern in which military power operates alongside narrative power. Missiles shape the physical battlefield, while selective reporting shapes the battlefield of perception.</p>
<p>What emerges is not merely a media bias but a form of narrative engineering. Certain victims are elevated as symbols of universal suffering, while others — often far more numerous — are rendered invisible. Compassion itself becomes curated, distributed unevenly according to political convenience.</p>
<p>For Western audiences accustomed to believing in the neutrality of their information systems, this selective visibility should provoke serious reflection. The credibility of humanitarian discourse depends on consistency.</p>
<p>The girls of Minab deserved the same recognition afforded to any victims of violence anywhere in the world. They deserved to have their stories told, their lives acknowledged, and their deaths confronted with the seriousness such an atrocity demands.</p>
<p>Instead, they encountered a second form of erasure.</p>
<p>First came the missiles that ended their lives. Then came the silence that followed.</p>
<p><strong>Selective visibility needs reflection</strong><br />For Western audiences accustomed to believing in the neutrality of their information systems, this selective visibility should provoke serious reflection.</p>
<p>In the contemporary information age, propaganda rarely announces itself openly. It often operates through absence — through the stories that never reach the front page, the victims whose names remain unspoken, and the tragedies that disappear before the world has time to notice.</p>
<p>The massacre in Minab therefore stands as more than a local catastrophe. It exposes a deeper crisis in the global information order — one in which the value of human life appears disturbingly contingent on political context.</p>
<p>And if the deaths of 165 schoolgirls in their classrooms fail to trigger universal outrage, the question is no longer about geopolitics alone.</p>
<p>It becomes a question about the credibility of the moral system that claims to defend humanity itself.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.commondreams.org/author/hana-sadaa" rel="nofollow">Dr Hana Saada</a> is an Algerian university lecturer and journalist, and editor-in-chief of the English edition of Dzair Tube. She holds a PhD in media translation and writes on geopolitics, media narratives, and international affairs. This article is republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons.<br /></em></p>
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		<title>War in Iran – journalism in crisis as reporters work amid bombs, says RSF</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/06/war-in-iran-journalism-in-crisis-as-reporters-work-amid-bombs-says-rsf/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2026 05:15:06 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Pacific Media Watch Journalists in Iran have been working amid hostile air strikes for almost a week since the start of the US-Israeli offensive while also facing repression from the Iranian regime. Internet access in the country remains limited and information is scarce. As war spreads across the region, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has expressed ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/category/pacific-media-watch/" rel="nofollow"><em>Pacific Media Watch</em></a></p>
<p>Journalists in Iran have been working amid hostile air strikes for almost a week since the start of the US-Israeli offensive while also facing repression from the Iranian regime.</p>
<p>Internet access in the country remains limited and information is scarce.</p>
<p>As war spreads across the region, <a href="https://rsf.org/en/" rel="nofollow">Reporters Without Borders (RSF)</a> has expressed its solidarity with journalists in the zone and has called on all parties involved in the conflict to guarantee their protection and the right to information.</p>
<p>“As the region goes up in flames, access to reliable information about the war following the attacks carried out by the United States and Israel, is more essential than ever — both regionally and internationally,” said Jonathan Dagher, head of RSF’s Middle East Desk, in a statement.<br /><em><br /></em> “Every single stakeholder involved in this war in Iran and the Middle East more widely is required, under international law, to guarantee the safety of reporters and their freedom to carry out their work.”</p>
<p>Although the situation was volatile and characterised by violence, respect for the right to information was still an obligation,” he said.</p>
<p>“The safety of journalists is non-negotiable. War must under no circumstances hinder the work of the press.</p>
<p><strong>‘Release journalists’ call</strong><br />“US and Israeli strikes against Iran must not endanger the media professionals covering those events. The Iranian regime must immediately release the journalists it is holding and cease all pressures against those covering the war.”</p>
<div readability="18.118609406953">
<p>The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/us-israel-attacks-on-iran-death-toll-and-injuries-live-tracker" rel="nofollow">death toll in Iran from the US-Israeli attacks</a> has risen to 1,230, Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency has reported.</p>
<p>The deadliest single incident occurred in the city of Minab in southeastern Iran, where a strike on an elementary girls school killed “about 180 young children”.</p>
<p>In Israel, at least 11 have been killed and hundreds injured but details and the narrative are strictly controlled by state authorities.</p>
<p>Specific details on journalist casualties are not yet known.</p>
</div>
<div readability="76.654219566841">
<p dir="ltr">“The Iranian regime’s relentless crackdown on media professionals is being compounded by the reality of living and working under air strikes, said RSF.</p>
<p>The US-Israeli offensive was launched on Saturday, February 28, killed several Iranian commanders and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.</p>
<p><strong>‘Menacing phone calls’</strong><br />“Journalists are working under foreign bombs and receiving menacing phone calls from the authorities,” an independent journalist told RSF.</p>
<p>Afraid of reprisals, he requested anonymity.</p>
<p>“This political pressure hasn’t stopped with the war. On the contrary, it has intensified since the announcement of Khamenei’s death.”</p>
<p dir="ltr">The journalist is one of many reporters who have had to evacuate Tehran, the Iranian capital. However the city he fled to was also hit by heavy strikes.</p>
<p>“The attacks were very intense,” the journalist said. “The terrifying sounds of explosions and fighter jets continued until around 2 am, then they restarted at about 8 am, when we were woken up by the sound of another explosion.”</p>
<p dir="ltr">In addition to airstrikes and intimidating calls, journalists in Iran are also being <a href="https://rsf.org/en/crackdown-iran-surge-arrests-journalists-covering-protests" rel="nofollow"><u>threatened with arrest</u></a>.</p>
<p>On several occasions, the Iranian state television channel announced that any activity deemed to be “advantageous to the enemy” would be severely punished.</p>
<p>“No independent journalist is allowed to work,” said a second journalist based in Tehran. “Even those [reporters] who went to explosion-affected areas, with government permission, were sometimes briefly detained, and had all their photos deleted.”</p>
<p><strong>A shortage of information<br /></strong> These threats come amid a near-total <a href="https://rsf.org/en/media-blackout-iran-least-one-media-outlet-suspended-silence-country-s-other-independent-newsrooms" rel="nofollow"><u>media blackout</u></a> in place since the protests that swept across the country in December 2025.</p>
<p>Although some journalists have occasional internet connection depending on their location and mobile operator, broadly speaking internet access remains restricted.</p>
<p>This censorship is also targeted: “Journalists and media outlets that echo the government’s narrative generally have access to unfiltered internet and SIM cards. However, independent journalists are subject to severe restrictions,” the reporter who left Tehran told RSF.</p>
<p>As a result, there is a shortage of information and reports are “vague and imprecise,” according to the Tehran-based journalist.</p>
<p>Her colleague agrees: “You only have to read the newspapers to see the repression.</p>
<p>“For example, although journalists at one Iranian daily have no affection for Khamenei, the outlet published nothing but praise about him.”</p>
<p><em>Pacific Media Watch collaborates with Reporters Without Borders.</em></p>
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		<title>US-Israel’s war on Iran – mostly negative scenarios for the Pacific</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/06/us-israels-war-on-iran-mostly-negative-scenarios-for-the-pacific/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2026 03:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[ANALYSIS: By Stephen Howes and Rubayat Chowdhury There is no doubt that the war Israel and the United States have launched against Iran will have global economic consequences. While it is difficult to know what those consequences will be, it is hard to see them as positive, and they could be very, very negative. Already ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>ANALYSIS:</strong> <em>By Stephen Howes and Rubayat Chowdhury</em></p>
<p>There is no doubt that the war Israel and the United States have launched against Iran will have global economic consequences. While it is difficult to know what those consequences will be, it is hard to see them as positive, and they could be very, very negative.</p>
<p>Already we have seen <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">oil prices spike by 8 percent since last week</a>, and by much more since January.</p>
<p>Oil prices reached above US$100 a barrel with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but then gradually started to fall, and by the start of the year had returned to their pre-2022 level of US$60.</p>
<p>Just before the weekend they had risen to US$70 and now they are almost at US$80. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, they could rise much more.</p>
<p>That is on the price front. There could also, unlike in 2022, be problems on the quantity side.</p>
<p>If it continues to be difficult to ship oil out of the Middle East, then shortages of oil might start to emerge. The countries that will do best in such a situation are those with large stockpiles or plenty of bargaining power.</p>
<p>The Pacific Island countries have neither.</p>
<p><strong>Reliant on 80% oil</strong><br />The Pacific is also vulnerable because of its extreme reliance on oil. <a href="https://repository.unescap.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/52eec907-1f22-4795-bb18-2db6e6a4fd42/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">According to a 2022 UN report</a>, the Pacific meets 80 percent of its energy requirements through oil.</p>
<p>Even in the electricity sector, renewable energy sources make only a limited contribution.</p>
<p>There has been some growth in renewable energy as an electricity source. According to <a href="https://www.ppa.org.fj/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1.2.2-Prasad-RE-Trends-in-the-Pacific-Barriers-to-RE-Uptake-A-sectoral-review.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">analysis by Janendra Prasad at UNSW</a>, the share of renewable energy in electricity production in the Pacific has increased from 17 percent in 2017 to 24 percent in 2023. That is still low, and nowhere near what Pacific governments are themselves targeting (in excess of 80 percent by 2030).</p>
<p>The Pacific is also vulnerable because of its lack of domestic oil production and very limited storage capacity. In fact, <a href="https://pmn.co.nz/read/tonga-election-2025/tonga-s-fuel-crisis-worsens-as-daily-life-is-disrupted-and-pressure-mounts-for-answers" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">Tonga suffered fuel shortages last year</a> due to problems with its fuel depot and a stranded fuel vessel.</p>
<p>With drivers now queuing in <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/israel-iran-war-drivers-queue-across-australia-amid-petrol-price-fears-but-true-bowser-pain-could-be-10-days-away-c-21821049" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">Australia</a> and <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2026/03/03/petrol-running-queues-grow-pumps-fears-prices-will-rise-27200799/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">the UK</a> to get their petrol before prices rise or petrol rationing begins, it wouldn’t be surprising to see queues develop across the Pacific.</p>
<p>Governments can tell people not to panic, but it may seem like a rational response given the risks of petrol price rises and rationing.</p>
<p>It is important to clarify that PNG is the “odd one out” in the Pacific. PNG will actually likely benefit from the crisis as it is a large exporter of LNG. The government’s tax and dividend take will increase as LNG prices rise.</p>
<p><strong>PNG oil refinery</strong><br />PNG also has an oil refinery. And this war will also help the prospects for <a href="https://devpolicy.org/papua-lng-why-so-delayed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">PNG’s much-delayed and still-uncertain future LNG projects</a> by increasing the value to Asia of sourcing its LNG nearer to home than the Middle East.</p>
<p>So far we have focused on petroleum. But there are also the wider ramifications of the war.</p>
<p>It may lead to an uptick in global inflation, and may even push the world towards or even into recession. An oil shock on its own is unlikely to be enough to lead to a recession, but an escalated, widespread Middle East conflict (or possibly a conflict that extends to Turkey and Europe) certainly could.</p>
<p>Again, PNG will benefit from a further increase in the gold price as investors lose faith in the US, and therefore in the US dollar.</p>
<p>But overall, what is bad for the world is bad for the Pacific. Remittances, tourism, fishing licence fees, aid and investment returns would all suffer in the event of a global recession.</p>
<p>There is a possible upside. If Iran capitulates and, with or without regime change, gives in to US demands, then, with sanctions removed, oil production might go up and oil prices down.</p>
<p>Right now, that doesn’t seem like a likely scenario.</p>
<p><strong>Relevant positives</strong><br />More relevant are the positives that could limit or to some extent offset the downside for the Pacific.</p>
<p>One is that it is still unclear how long this war will go on for. The shorter it is the less worrying the outcomes.</p>
<p>A second is the positive role Australia can play. Although there are questions about Australia’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/country-could-shut-down-australia-has-just-28-days-of-petrol-20251014-p5n2b9" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" rel="nofollow">own limited oil storage capacity</a>, Australia will be under pressure to share whatever oil it is able to import with its Pacific family.</p>
<p>Third, and longer-term, this crisis, especially if it is long-lasting, might make the world more serious about the renewable transition, not so much to avoid dangerous climate change, but to shore up energy security.</p>
<p>Understandably, for the Pacific, which is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and whose emissions are negligible at the global level, the focus to date has been on climate change adaptation rather than mitigation.</p>
<p>But the sort of crisis currently unfolding should give the Pacific countries and their funders a stronger incentive to close the growing gap between Pacific renewable energy targets and reality — not to reduce the risks of climate change, but rather to reduce Pacific vulnerability to an increasingly shock- and conflict-prone Middle East.</p>
<p><a href="https://devpolicy.org/author/stephenrhowes/" rel="nofollow"><em>Stephen Howes</em></a> <em>is director of the Development Policy Centre and professor of economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. <a href="https://devpolicy.org/author/rubayat-chowdhury/" rel="nofollow">Rubayat Chowdhury</a> is a macroeconomist with experience working on monetary policy, growth, and economic development in emerging market economies. He is a research officer at the Development Policy Centre. </em></p>
<p><em>Stephen Howes was recently interviewed on this topic for the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/pacific/programs/pacificbeat/iran-pac/106417884" target="_blank" rel="noopener" rel="nofollow">ABC’s Pacific Beat programme</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>Australia and the ‘Epstein Coalition’ – invasion of Iran a disaster</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/05/australia-and-the-epstein-coalition-invasion-of-iran-a-disaster/</link>
		
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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 23:15:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/05/australia-and-the-epstein-coalition-invasion-of-iran-a-disaster/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It’s only Day Five of the war, but surely the epic stupidity of Australia so cravenly backing the US-Israeli invasion of Iran is evident by now. Michael West Media reports. COMMENTARY: By Michael West We are led by fools and sycophants. The illegal, unprovoked invasion of Iran is not just garden-variety stupidity. This is stupidity ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>It’s only Day Five of the war, but surely the epic stupidity of Australia so cravenly backing the US-Israeli invasion of Iran is evident by now. <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Michael West</strong> <strong>Media</strong></a> reports.</em></p>
<p><strong>COMMENTARY:</strong> <em>By Michael West</em></p>
<p>We are led by fools and sycophants. The illegal, unprovoked invasion of Iran is not just garden-variety stupidity. This is stupidity on a grandiose, stratospheric scale.</p>
<p>The Israeli propaganda narrative that Iranians would sprinkle rose petals at the feet of their invaders has not come to pass. It has already been demolished in fact.</p>
<p>Instead of bringing freedom and democracy — “regime change” — we have brought chaos, possibly a world war, and definitely the destruction of the Middle East.</p>
<figure id="attachment_124577" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-124577" class="wp-caption alignright"><figcaption id="caption-attachment-124577" class="wp-caption-text">Michael West Media founder Michael West</figcaption></figure>
<p>The world economy is being hit hard as we write; oil prices spiralling, energy prices about to soar, and the inexorable spectre of inflation and recession.</p>
<blockquote readability="5">
<p>And it didn’t have to happen.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This was a war of choice. Even without the “Epstein Coalition” — as the Iranian media so aptly dubs their invaders — <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/3/iran-mourns-165-schoolgirls-and-staff-killed-in-school-strike" rel="nofollow">murdering 165 Iranian school girls on day one</a>, “peace through strength” was never going to happen.</p>
<div id="attachment_441634" class="wp-caption">
<figure class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-and-the-epstein-coalition-invasion-of-iran-a-disaster/attachment/graves/" rel="attachment wp-att-441634" rel="nofollow"> </a><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">Graves of the murdered Iranian schoolgirls. Image: X/MWM</figcaption></figure>
</div>
<p>Quite the contrary. The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Iran has hardened the resolve of Iranians, who are massing in their hundreds of thousands across the country to mourn their dead and chant “Death to America”, to back their regime.</p>
<p><strong>Where was the advice?<br /></strong> The Epstein Coalition killed the Ayatollah, who was actually against nuclear power; he was a moderate.</p>
<p>Did Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong not seek advice from Foreign Affairs that attacking Iran was folly, that the anti-regime protesters were a minority, that the pre-invasion protests were a Mossad and CIA psyop, that Iran might attack US proxy states in the region, that invasion would be a Brobigdadgian mistake?</p>
<p>Or did they ignore the advice in favour of a Washington regime compromised by the Epstein pedophile scandal?</p>
<p>And now, we see the feeble, hypocritical whining by Israel and its supporters about Iran attacking the Gulf states. Is that our only moral defence?</p>
<p>Decades of supporting these regimes: Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — US proxy states all — regimes now unravelling, the oil price is soaring, inflation and recession are beckoning globally.</p>
<p>Images are emerging from Bahrain of locals cheering on the Iranian missiles. Were DFAT and our politicians unaware of popular angst in the Gulf states against American imperialism?</p>
<p>And what did they expect Iran to do in the face of this existential threat? Not blow up American bases and infrastructure while the US attacked them; after the US betrayed them at the very negotiating table when they were offering significant concessions on nuclear enrichment, all to avoid war? This war.</p>
<p><iframe loading="lazy" title="YouTube video player" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UGhfM3zk7IY?si=zJshUvZyJdNAoVBx" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen">[embedded content]</iframe><br /><em>War drums over Tehran.             Video: The West Report<br /></em></p>
<p><strong>Australia, the US flunkies<br /></strong> Yet here was Australia, Saturday night, first out of the blocks worldwide to throw its support behind Donald Trump and his preposterous “Operation Epic Fury”, a probable pedophile being blackmailed and led around by the genocidal Benjamin Netanyahu like a pony at the fairground show.</p>
<p>“Operation Epstein Fury”, it was fast labelled. The soaring, craven stupidity is hard to grasp. Both major parties backing it.</p>
<p>Albo first, then Angus Taylor rushing to tow the Donald’s line. Then, One Nation’s Pauline Hanson, too, who even congratulated and praised Netanyahu. We are led by fools and sycophants.</p>
<p><strong>The flawed defence of atrocity<br /></strong> To address the empty rhetoric of the pro-war lobby, criticism of this war does not equate to support for the regime in Iran. Defenders of the US-Israel atrocity are busy with their swarms of social media bots peddling the argument that “you are an Islamist terror supporter” if you criticise the invasion.</p>
<p>This is the 2026 version of “You are a Hamas supporter” if you argue against genocide in Gaza.</p>
<p>The cold facts of this debacle are that regime change does not work, that Iran did not want this war, that Iran appears to be exceptionally well prepared, that the Epstein Coalition, which Australia supports, is daily backing war crimes: blowing up hospitals, schools and civilian infrastructure.</p>
<blockquote readability="5">
<p>This is a war which has already been lost.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The obvious reality is that regime change wars are a demonstrable failure. Vietnam. Iraq. Afghanistan. Iraq — a million dead, irretrievable regional stability. In Afghanistan, 20 years, trillions of dollars spent, four US presidents, six Australian PMs — all to replace the Taliban . . . with the Taliban.</p>
<p>And here we are, the world’s busybodies, doing it again.</p>
<figure class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-and-the-epstein-coalition-invasion-of-iran-a-disaster/attachment/countries-bombed-by-us/" rel="attachment wp-att-441635" rel="nofollow"> </a><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">Countries bombed by the US since 1945. Graphic: World Visualised/MWM</figcaption></figure>
<p>Who would ever negotiate with the US in good faith again, or Israel for that matter? Iran did not want this war. Iran has not attacked another country in 300 years.</p>
<p>The US lured them to the negotiating table, then, without warning, murdered their leadership. This echoes last year’s 12-day war, where Israel and the US lured them in on the premise of good faith talks, then murdered them and now play the victim.</p>
<p>What did they expect Iran to do in the face of this existential threat?</p>
<p>The record speaks for itself. The US is the biggest invader of other countries in history. Israel has, last year alone, attacked Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Jordan, Palestine, Qatar, Tunisia, Malta, and Greece.</p>
<figure class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-and-the-epstein-coalition-invasion-of-iran-a-disaster/attachment/image-4-3-2026-at-12-04-pm/" rel="attachment wp-att-441636" rel="nofollow"> </a><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">Countries the US has attacked in the 21st century . . . and the presidents who authorised the strikes. Image: X/MWM</figcaption></figure>
<p>Six illegal attacks of sovereign nations, as well as three illegal attacks in international waters equals nine all up. In one year.</p>
<p>And now they are invading Lebanon again, seizing more territory as their puppets, America, fight their campaign against Iran.</p>
<p><strong>Albo, what are you doing?<br /></strong> We know who the warmongers are. We are the warmongers. Yet, in his bizarre statement of support, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was the fastest out of the blocks of all the allies on the weekend, <a href="https://x.com/AlboMP/status/2027678880220516549" rel="nofollow">issuing a false statement</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" readability="14.227272727273">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">Australia stands with the brave people of Iran in their struggle against oppression.</p>
<p>For decades, the Iranian regime has been a destabilising force, through its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, support for armed proxies, and brutal acts of violence and intimidation.</p>
<p>Iran…</p>
<p>— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/2027678880220516549?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow">February 28, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The claim, echoed by the usual warmongers of the Lib-Lab establishment, is that Iran is guilty of attacks on Australian soil, referencing alleged attacks on a deli in Bondi.</p>
<p>Apart from the common sense, why would Iran commit an act of terror on a deli in Bondi? <a href="https://x.com/MaryKostakidis/status/2027973612003856459" rel="nofollow">Senior police have conceded that there is no evidence of this</a>.</p>
<p><strong>The nuclear furphy<br /></strong> Then there is the age-old claim that Iran is about to produce nuclear weapons. The US and Israel’s nuclear risk claims have been so roundly discredited it’s a joke.</p>
<p>Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying to instigate a war against Iran for 30 years — claiming Iran is <em>days away, weeks away, months away</em> from nuclear missiles.</p>
<p>And they were at the negotiating table <em>again</em> when the Epstein forces murdered them.</p>
<p><strong>The propaganda<br /></strong> We are now seeing mainstream media decry the “illegal attacks” on Israel and the Gulf states. Yet the ‘victim card” is tapped out.</p>
<p>Around the world, outside the legacy media propaganda, there is little sympathy for Israel having razed Gaza and slaughtered between 72,000 and 700,000 Palestinians while stealing more land in the West Bank daily.</p>
<p>It will continue. The media and political classes have failed so majestically that they can only try to salvage their authority with more propaganda.</p>
<p>The deplorable coverage of the murdered schoolgirls in Iran is a case in point. The “40 beheaded babies” and the “mass rapes” of Hamas filled the headlines in the West on October 8, 2023. Yet real murders — <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/3/iran-mourns-165-schoolgirls-and-staff-killed-in-school-strike" rel="nofollow">165 murdered schoolgirls — have hardly rated a mention</a>. Yes, a mention perhaps, but a side story, buried, no headlines of outrage.</p>
<p>Can’t handle the truth?</p>
<p>Is the truth too hard to handle? Is it not evident to everybody except the most brainwashed advocate of the Epstein lobby that Israel — the government, the state — is the problem here?</p>
<p>Netanyahu has won his ambition to drag America into a war against Iran, and if you follow the money, while world stock markets teeter, the stock market in Tel Aviv is surging, replete with weapons companies as it is.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the ASX is tanking, ergo our savings. Oil prices are surging, ergo higher energy prices and inflation. The Houthis, Iran’s allies, are shooting again in the Red Sea while, on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, Iran has blocked the Straits of Hormuz, choking off a large chunk of the world’s oil supply.</p>
<p>Higher prices in India and China will mean higher prices for imports and inflation around the world.</p>
<p>The lessons of history have not been learnt; in fact, they have been discarded in spectacular fashion.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" readability="12.487534626039">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en" xml:lang="en">> 70 years ago, Iran looked just like any Western country.<br />> Short skirts, rock’n’roll, open universities.<br />> It’s 1953. Iran elects a secular socialist: Mohammad Mossadegh.<br />> He nationalizes oil. That pisses off BP.<br />> Cold War excuse.<br />> CIA and MI6 stage a coup. Operation Ajax.<br />>… <a href="https://t.co/ZNWaLdBlCN" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/ZNWaLdBlCN</a></p>
<p>— Dr. Simon Goddek (@goddek) <a href="https://twitter.com/goddek/status/2027951088968646950?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow">March 1, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>
<br /><em><br /><a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/author/michael/" rel="nofollow">Michael West</a> established <em>Michael West Media</em> in 2016 to focus on journalism of high public interest, particularly the rising power of corporations over democracy. West was formerly a journalist and editor with Fairfax newspapers, a columnist for News Corp and even, once, a stockbroker.</em></p>
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		<title>New Zealand ‘shameful’ over Iran stance, says Peace Movement Aotearoa</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/05/new-zealand-shameful-over-iran-stance-says-peace-movement-aotearoa/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Asia Pacific Report]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 11:15:09 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Peace Movement Aotearoa “One can oppose a hateful regime and, at the same time, oppose an unjustified and dangerous military intervention,” says Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. “I once again call for immediate de-escalation, respect for international law, and the urgency of resuming dialogue.” While some governments around the world have easily managed to express ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Peace Movement Aotearoa</em></p>
<p>“One can oppose a hateful regime and, at the same time, oppose an unjustified and dangerous military intervention,” <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/spain-baulks-at-trumps-threat-to-cut-off-all-trade-over-nato-iran-stance" rel="nofollow">says Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez</a>.</p>
<p>“I once again call for immediate de-escalation, respect for international law, and the urgency of resuming dialogue.”</p>
<p>While some governments around the world have easily managed to express their opposition to the unlawful military attacks by Israel and the US and their opposition to the Iranian regime, shamefully New Zealand has failed to follow their example.</p>
<p>Instead, the government <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2026/03/02/luxon-defends-nzs-position-on-iran-attacks-same-as-australia/" rel="nofollow">has issued a statement</a> that condemns only Iran; “acknowledges” the military strikes were “designed to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten international peace and security”; and calls for “adherence to international law” — apparently blissfully unaware that the attacks comprise multiple breaches of international law.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2026/03/02/luxon-defends-nzs-position-on-iran-attacks-same-as-australia/" rel="nofollow">interview on RNZ</a>, the PM repeatedly responded to the question “Does New Zealand support these attacks or not?” by reading out “We think Iran is evil, we think it’s been repressing its own people.</p>
<p>“We think it’s been arming proxies and terrorist organisations. We think it has been developing its ballistic and nuclear programmes and years of diplomacy hasn’t actually paid any fruits.”</p>
<p>He also said more than once that New Zealand’s position <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2026/03/02/luxon-defends-nzs-position-on-iran-attacks-same-as-australia/" rel="nofollow">was the same as Australia’s</a> — the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-28/australian-government-responds-to-united-states-attack-on-iran/106401108" rel="nofollow">Australian PM has said</a> they “support the United States acting to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons”.</p>
<p><strong>Bizarre spectre</strong><br />Which, aside from ignoring the US’s stated desire for forced regime change in Iran, raises the bizarre spectre of two nuclear-armed states attacking another state in case it might develop nuclear weapons — even though Iran is a state party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (#NPT), which Israel is not, and has opened its nuclear facilities to the #IAEA, which Israel has not. Indeed, the only state in the Middle East that does have stockpiles of nuclear weapons (entirely undeclared and unsupervised) <a href="https://armscontrolcenter.org/countries/israel/" rel="nofollow">is Israel</a>.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s moral failure to condemn these military strikes, but instead to continue describing the Iranian regime as “evil” or “bad actors” as though that somehow makes armed attacks on a sovereign nation to assassinate its leaders to force regime change okay — regardless of civilian casualties — shows how far it has now moved from even the <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2026/03/02/neither-preemptive-nor-legal-us-israeli-strikes-on-iran-have-blown-up-international-law/" rel="nofollow">pretence of applying international law</a> to the actions of its military friends and partners.</p>
<p>And what a missed opportunity to point out the urgent necessity for the elimination of ALL #NuclearWeapons — so much for New Zealand’s alleged commitment to a nuclear weapons-free world, and its promotion of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons #TPNW / #NuclearBan and the NPT.</p>
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		<title>Alternative Jewish Voices: Stop this Iran catastrophe!</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/04/alternative-jewish-voices-stop-this-iran-catastrophe/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Asia Pacific Report]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 04:15:31 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Alternative Jewish Voices — Sh’ma Koleinu We, Alternative Jewish Voices, deplore Israel and America’s illegal war of aggression against Iran. We also condemned the repression of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but that does not justify this war. International war will only bring — is already bringing — more civilian death and destruction. We support the right ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Alternative Jewish Voices — Sh’ma Koleinu</em></p>
<p>We, Alternative Jewish Voices, deplore Israel and America’s illegal war of aggression against Iran. We also condemned the repression of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but that does not justify this war.</p>
<p>International war will only bring — is already bringing — more civilian death and destruction. We support the right of the Iranian people to determine their own future.</p>
<p>America and Israel again attacked Iran in mid-negotiation, three days after <a href="https://x.com/araghchi/status/2026353049250443733" rel="nofollow">Iran’s Foreign Minister, Sayed Abbas Araghchi tweeted:</a> “Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon.”</p>
<p>No one has offered the slightest contrary evidence.</p>
<p>This war of aggression <a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQfCDRsLPwqTvmjKqKlMVzLXhQb" rel="nofollow">violates international and US domestic law</a>. After the Second World War, the Nuremberg Tribunal called aggression “the supreme international crime”.</p>
<p>We see around us the world they were trying to avert: Israel has waged genocidal war on a trapped community and bombed six countries that were not at war.</p>
<p>This morning, Israel is occupying parts of Lebanon. Russia has invaded and pounded Ukraine for four years. Pakistan is bombing the cities of Afghanistan. US President Donald Trump doesn’t know what to grab next.</p>
<p><strong>Imperial ambitions</strong><br />We regard the attack on Iran as the latest enactment of longstanding imperial ambitions. How many countries has America tried to bomb into submission? How many times did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bomb the blockaded population of Gaza before America gave him the green light and the weapons to commit outright genocide?</p>
<p>This week, benefiting from the distraction of Iran, Israel has yet again sealed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/iran-attacks-gaza-under-siege" rel="nofollow">Gaza behind a total blockade</a>. Aid agencies are again counting the days until they again run out of food.</p>
<p>Netanyahu boasts on camera that this war is “what I have <a href="https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2028268725141479581" rel="nofollow">yearned to do for 40 years</a>”. Beware of men who prefer the risks of war to those of peace. Chaos and civilian misery are their signatures, but we share responsibility for their impunity.</p>
<p>Even after the horror of livestreamed genocide in Gaza, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon acquiesces to more war and speaks as if Trump and Netanyahu are trustworthy public officials.</p>
<p>Luxon’s appeasement disgraces us. We must not support this unfolding disaster, not materially and not out of the side of the Prime Minister’s mouth. We must say “No” in a bold, principled voice; joining states like Spain and Denmark.</p>
<p>As this fire spreads, we must also peer through the headlines and focus on the people of Iran, Gaza, Afghanistan and Lebanon. Civilians need protection, intervention and an end to the games of these warmongers.</p>
<p>We urge our morally vacuous government to stand with the civilians, the law and our future.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://ajv.org.nz/" rel="nofollow">Alternative Jewish Voices – Sh’ma Koleinu</a> is a collective of anti-Zionist Jews from the Far North to Dunedin. It has a liberatory Aotearoa Jewish identity, whether religious or secular or cultural. It is part of a movement for collective liberation, in Aotearoa and in Palestine.</em></p>
<p>Article by <a href="https://www.asiapacificreport.nz/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AsiaPacificReport.nz</a></p>
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		<title>‘A global energy crisis’ – Fuel price hike looms for Pacific amid Iran war</title>
		<link>https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/04/a-global-energy-crisis-fuel-price-hike-looms-for-pacific-amid-iran-war/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Asia Pacific Report]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 02:15:05 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[By Kaya Selby, RNZ Pacific journalist Analysts are warning fuel prices are expected to jump in the Pacific following the Israeli and US attacks on Iran, and the retaliatory response by Iran. Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply, and shipments have been suspended following ]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>By <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/authors/kaya-selby" rel="nofollow">Kaya Selby</a>, <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/" rel="nofollow">RNZ Pacific</a> journalist</em></p>
<p>Analysts are warning fuel prices are expected to jump in the Pacific following the Israeli and US attacks on Iran, and the retaliatory response by Iran.</p>
<p>Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply, and shipments have been suspended following the attacks.</p>
<p>Crude oil prices could climb as high as US$100 per barrel, leading to widespread concerns the Middle East war could precipitate into “a global energy crisis”.</p>
<p>Pacific Island fuel prices are generally high and volatile due to import dependency and shipping distance.</p>
<p>Saul Kanovic, an energy sector analyst at MST Financial in Sydney, told RNZ Pacific the “threat is severe”.</p>
<p>“If the situation doesn’t de-escalate and the passage through [the Strait of Hormuz] remains significantly disrupted, we’re looking at a global energy crisis that we haven’t seen since the 1970s,” Kanovic said.</p>
<p>“This could be bigger than that.”</p>
<p><strong>Isolated nations suffer</strong><br />Kanovic said that more isolated nations with less diversified economies would suffer from a greater exposure to these price shocks.</p>
<p>“Cost of transport is going to go up from a fuel cost perspective, but we might also see insurance premiums rising.”</p>
<p>In the Pacific, imported fuel is usually paid for by forward contracts in advance, and in bulk orders that can last months, as a hedge against price shocks.</p>
<p>But the impact could embed itself into freight costs, both for shipping and air, which in the Pacific is already relatively high given the distance.</p>
<p>Glen Craig, Vanuatu’s special envoy for international development, told RNZ Pacific the severity of the impact would depend on whether the duration of the conflict outpaced a Pacific nation’s petroleum reserves.</p>
<p><strong>Not yet ‘panicking’</strong><br />“No one is panicking now, but there is definitely going to be some fuel price increases at some stage,” Craig said.</p>
<p>“We should be okay, but it depends on how big and how long this conflict is going to go for.”</p>
<p>When it hits, Craig said it would likely be reflected in all imported goods on Pacific shelves, as well as tourism and regional travel.</p>
<p>“It’s a bit like if you’re on a busy motorway, and there’s an accident on the road 30 km ahead; it might take half an hour to trickle down to the end, but it eventually gets to you.”</p>
<p>“I would dare say we’re looking at something in maybe four months’ time.”</p>
<p><strong>Papau New Guinea set to ‘definitely benefit’ – minister<br /></strong> Papua New Guinea’s Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko saw some potential upside for his country as a petroleum and oil exporter.</p>
<p>“It will definitely benefit PNG, but then there’s the other side, where fuel prices for the domestic market will then go up,” Tkatchenko said.</p>
<p>PNG is predominantly a petroleum gas exporter, with China, Japan and Taiwan as its biggest importers.</p>
<p>With LNG prices impacted by the Middle East, but PNG protected by distance, it leaves a shortage that they can fill.</p>
<p>“Unfortunately, it’s the consumers that will cop it, the people, and they are the ones that end up paying for it,” Tkatchenko said.</p>
<p>“So yeah, it’s good in one way, but definitely won’t help out people in the long run.”</p>
<p>A higher price means a higher tax take. According to its 2025 budget, PNG’s mining and petroleum tax drew in roughly US$971 million, a 16.5 percent increase from 2024.</p>
<p>The MPT, which is linked to gains from the sale of mining and petroleum goods, comprises PNG’s second largest source of tax revenue.</p>
<p>It may put the government in a position where it can commit to supporting consumers through any eventual price shock, as Prime Minister James Marape told local media over the weekend.</p>
<p><span class="credit"><em>This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ</em>.</span></p>
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