iPredict – Evening Report

iPredict Update: Key To Win Fourth Election But Hand Over To Bennett By End Of 2017

Selwyn Manning — Fri, 19 Jun 2015 04:40:22 +0000

New Zealand Weekly Economic and Political Update

www.ipredict.co.nz

KEY TO WIN FOURTH ELECTION BUT HAND OVER TO BENNETT BY END OF 2017

John Key is expected to win an historic fourth term but then hand over the prime ministership to Paula Bennett by the end of 2017, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. All current ministers expect trade minister Tim Groser are expected to remain ministers until the end of the year, with Murray McCully and Nick Smith currently the most vulnerable. Judith Collins is expected to be re-appointed a minister before the next election. Growth and unemployment forecasts have worsened and two cuts to the Official Cash Rate are expected by the end of the year. Andrew Little appears safe as leader of the Labour Party.

New Zealand Politics:

· John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (89% probability, steady compared with last week) and has just a 69% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (up from 48% last week). Mr Key has just a 17% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (down from 19% last week)

· Paula Bennett remains the favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (35%, down from 38% last week), followed by Judith Collins on 23% (up from 20%)

· Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (76% probability, up from 75% last week) and has a 77% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day (down from 79% last week). Mr Little has a 54% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (down from 56% last week)

· All ministers except Trade & Climate Change Minister Tim Groser are expected to remain ministers until the end of the year. The most vulnerable are Murray McCully, with a 38% probability of departing as Foreign Minister this year, and Nick Smith, with a 31% probability of departing as a minister this year.

· Judith Collins has a 35% probability of being appointed to Cabinet this year (down from 48% last week) and a 73% probability of being appointed before the next election (up from 62%)

· Tim Groser is expected to be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States (94% probability, up from 93% last week) and Maureen Pugh is expected to become eligible to be a list MP before the next election (95% probability, steady)

· Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (96% probability, up from 93% last week) as is Maurice Williamson (80% probability, up from 71%). There is an 87% probability of a by-election in Mt Roskill before the next general election (up from 86% last week) and a 53% probability of a by-election in Pakuranga (steady)

· Next general election expected in 2017 (95% probability, steady compared with last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)

· Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 44.5% (up from 44.4% last week)

o Labour 34.1% (down from 34.5%)

o Greens 11.1% (steady)

o NZ First 7.8% (down from 7.9%)

o Others 2.6% (up from 2.2%)

· NZ First has a 77% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (up from 76% last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 55% probability it will back National on confidence in supply (up from 50% last week), a 43% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (down from 50% last week) and a 2% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (up from 0%)

· National prime minister expected after 2017 General Election (63% probability, up from 62% last week)

· David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (83% probability, steady compared last week) and Gerry Brownlee has a 71% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker (steady compared with last week), ahead of Anne Tolley on 27% (steady)

New Zealand Business & Economics:

· Average Auckland house price expected to rise from $828,502 in May to:

o $839,385 in June (up from $831,273 last week)

o $842,140 in July (up from $834,990)

o $847,900 in August (up from $840,440)

o $850,860 in September (new stocks)

· The average Auckland house price is expected to reach $1,000,000 in the second half of 2018 (55% probability, down from 62% last week)

· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:

o $4.67 in 2014/15 (up from $4.65 last week)

o $5.50 in 2015/16 (up from $5.41)

o $5.97 in 2016/17 (down from $6.05)

o $6.15 in 2017/18 (steady))

· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.61% in the June quarter (down from 0.66% last week)

o 0.83% in the September quarter (down from 0.90%)

o 0.95% in the December quarter (down from 0.98%)

· Annual growth expected to be 2.61% in the 2015 calendar year (down from 3.41% last week)

· Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.54% in the June quarter (up from 5.51% last week)

o 5.42% in the September quarter (up from 5.40%)

o 5.37% in the December quarter (steady)

o 5.45% in the March quarter (steady)

· New Zealand pay gaps in 2014/15 expected to be:

o Gender 9.95% (steady compared with last week)

o Maori 12.28% (steady)

o Pacific 23.12% (steady)

o Asian 20.43% (steady)

· Current account deficit expected to be:

o 3.70% of GDP in the March quarter (up from 3.51% last week)

o 3.80% in the June quarter (up from 3.57%)

o 3.53% in the September quarter (up from 3.39%)

o 3.49% in the December quarter (steady)

· Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.44% to end of June 2015 quarter (down from 0.45% last week)

o 0.58% to end of September 2015 quarter (up from 0.50%)

o 0.92% to end of December 2015 quarter (up from 0.82%)

o 1.56% to end of March 2016 quarter (steady)

o 1.49% to end of June 2016 quarter (up from 1.47%)

o 1.50% to end of September 2016 quarter (steady)

o 1.52% to end of December 2016 quarter (steady)

· Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.070% on 23 July (down from 3.270% last week)

o 2.952% on 10 September (down from 3.194%)

o 2.909% on 29 October (down from 3.157%)

o 2.864% on 10 December (down from 3.111%)

o 2.854% on 28 January 2016 (down from 3.102%)

o 2.838% on 10 March 2016 (down from 3.081%)

o 2.828% on 28 April 2016 (down from 3.071%)

o 2.806% on 9 June 2016 (down from 3.058%)

· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 23 July 2015 to 3.00% and then to 2.75% on 10 December 2015

· 37% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (up from 5% last week)

· Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.13% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.32% last week)

o 0.21% of GDP in 2015/16 (up from 0.20%)

o 0.88% of GDP in 2016/17 (down from 1.26%)

o 1.89% of GDP in 2017/18 (down from 1.96%)

· New Zealand dollar not expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (only 3.7% probability it will achieve parity, down from 13% last week)

· Stocks on tourism arrivals are now available for trading

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

· Andy Burnham is favourite to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party (52% probability, steady compared with last week), ahead of Liz Kendall (23%, down from 32%) and Yvette Cooper (17%, up from 15%)

· Boris Johnson has a 31% probability of being prime minister before 2020 (down from 35% last week)

· UK expected to vote to stay in EU by end of 2018 (75% probability, steady compared with last week)

· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, steady compared with last week)

· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (23% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, up from 21% last week). There is only a 40% probability of a departure by the end of 2017 (up from 38% last week)

· Tony Abbott is expected to be leader of the Australian Liberal Party on nomination day (69% probability, up from 63% last week) and Bill Shorten is expected to be Labor leader (81% probability, down from 90%)

· Liberals ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (69% probability of Liberal win, up from 63% last week)

· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (50% probability, up from 49% last week). Jeb Bush has a 40% probability of being the Republican nominee (up from 33% last week) followed by Marco Rubio (23%, steady) and Scott Walker (22%, up from 20%)

· There is only a 16% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (up from 9% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 40% probability it will be, down from 43% last week)

· Helen Clark’s chances of being the next UN Secretary General are 25% (steady compared with last week)

· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

· There is an 80% probability New Zealanders will vote to keep the current flag

Notes:

· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 1:59 pm today.

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iPredict: Goff V Williamson Battle Expected for Auckland Mayoralty

Selwyn Manning — Thu, 04 Jun 2015 03:38:02 +0000

www.ipredict.co.nz New Zealand Weekly Economic and Political Update

iPredict: Goff V Williamson Battle Expected for Auckland Mayoralty

There will be by-elections in both the Mt Roskill and Pakuranga electorates before the next general election, with their MPs, Labour’s Phil Goff and National’s Maurice Williamson, expected to face off for the Auckland mayoralty, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Stocks on who will be the next mayor of Auckland will be launched over the next week. In national politics, both National’s John Key and Labour’s Andrew Little have become more secure as leaders of their parties over the next week, but National has made a small gain in terms of who will win the next election. There has been a further rise in expectations for Auckland house prices but the Official Cash Rate is expected to remain at 3.5% next week. Despite the so-called “sheepgate” scandal, foreign minister Murray McCully appears safe in his job through to the end of the year.

New Zealand Politics:

· John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (89% probability, up from 82% last week) but still has just a 48% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (steady compared with last week). Mr Key has just a 19% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (up from 15% last week)

· Paula Bennett remains the favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (38%, up from 37% last week), followed by Judith Collins on 20% (down from 21%)

· Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (75% probability, up from 66% last week) and has a 79% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day (up from 60% last week). Mr Little has a 56% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (up from 49% last week)

· Stocks on who would replace Mr Little has leader of the Labour Party should a vacancy arise will be launched this week

· Judith Collins has a 48% probability of being appointed to Cabinet this year (down from 50% last week) and a 62% probability of being appointed before the next election (down from 65%)

· Tim Groser is expected to be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States (93% probability, steady compared with last week) and Maureen Pugh is expected to become eligible to be a list MP before the next election (95% probability, steady)

· Murray McCully is expected to remain Minister of Foreign Affairs through to the end of 2015 (only 48% probability of a departure)

· Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (93% probability, up from 86% last week) as is Maurice Williamson (71% probability, steady). There is an 86% probability of a by-election in Mt Roskill before the next general election and a 53% probability of a by-election in Pakuranga (up from 25% last week)

· Stocks on who will be elected the next Mayor of Auckland will be launched this week

· Next general election expected in 2017 (95% probability, up from 94% last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)

· Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 44.4% (up from 44.0% last week)

o Labour 34.5% (up from 33.8%)

o Greens 11.1% (up from 10.8%)

o NZ First 7.9% (steady)

o Others 2.2% (down from 3.5%)

· NZ First has a 76% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (down from 83% last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 50% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (down from 51% last week), a 50% probability it will back National on confidence and supply (up from 45% last week), and a 0% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (down from 2%)

· National prime minister expected after 2017 General Election (62% probability, up from 61% last week)

· David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (83% probability, steady compared last week) and Gerry Brownlee has a 71% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker (down from 85% last week), ahead of Anne Tolley on 27% (new stock)

New Zealand Business & Economics:

· Average Auckland house price expected to rise from $809,200 in April to:

o $818,000 in May (up from $815,356 last week)

o $831,273 in June (up from $822,540)

o $834,990 in July (up from $830,430)

o $840,440 in August (new stocks)

· The average Auckland house price is expected to reach $1,000,000 in 2018 (62% probability, steady compared with last week)

· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:

o $4.65 in 2014/15 (down from $4.72 last week)

o $5.41 in 2015/16 (down from $5.47)

o $6.05 in 2016/17 (up from $6.04)

o $6.15 in 2017/18 (new stocks)

· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.84% in the March quarter (up from 0.81% last week)

o 0.66% in the June quarter (down from 0.67%)

o 0.90% in the September quarter (steady)

o 0.98% in the December quarter (steady)

· Annual growth expected to be 3.41% in the 2015 calendar year (up from 3.39% last week)

· Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.51% in the June quarter (up from 5.46% last week)

o 5.30% in the September quarter (steady)

o 5.37% in the December quarter (steady)

o 5.45% in the March quarter (up from 5.44%)

· New Zealand pay gaps in 2014/15 expected to be:

o Gender 9.95% (steady compared with last week)

o Maori 12.28% (steady)

o Pacific 23.12% (steady)

o Asian 20.43% (steady)

· Current account deficit expected to be:

o 3.51% of GDP in the March quarter (down from 3.61% last week)

o 3.57% in the June quarter (steady)

o 3.39% in the September quarter (steady)

o 3.49% in the December quarter (steady)

· Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.45% to end of June 2015 quarter (up from 0.39% last week)

o 0.50% to end of September 2015 quarter (down from 0.55%)

o 0.82% to end of December 2015 quarter (up from 0.80%)

o 1.56% to end of March 2016 quarter (steady)

o 1.47% to end of June 2016 quarter (steady)

o 1.50% to end of September 2016 quarter (new stocks)

o 1.52% to end of December 2016 quarter (new stocks)

· Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.387% on 11 June (up from 3.370% last week)

o 3.270% on 23 July (up from 3.225%)

o 3.194% on 10 September (up from 3.147%)

o 3.157% on 29 October (up from 3.101%)

o 3.111% on 10 December (up from 3.056%)

o 3.102% on 28 January 2016 (up from 3.046%)

o 3.081% on 10 March 2016 (up from 3.025%)

o 3.071% on 28 April 2016 (up from 3.015%)

o 3.058% on 9 June 2016 (up from 3.003%)

· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 23 July 2015 to 3.25% (compared with 11 June last week) and to be cut again on 10 December 2015 (compared with 29 October 2015 last week) and then to be held at 3.00% until after 9 June 2016

· 5% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (steady compared with last week)

· Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.32% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from -0.31% last week)

o 0.20% of GDP in 2015/16 (down from 0.31%)

o 1.26% of GDP in 2016/17 (down from 1.41%)

o 1.96% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

· New Zealand dollar not expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (only 13% probability it will achieve parity, up from 12% last week)

· Stocks on tourism arrivals are now available for trading

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

· Andy Burnham is favourite to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party (52% probability, down from 56% last week), ahead of Liz Kendall (32%, up from 29%) and Yvette Cooper (15%, up from 6%)

· Boris Johnson has a 35% probability of being prime minister before 2020 (down from 38% last week)

· UK expected to vote to stay in EU by end of 2018 (75% probability, steady compared with last week)

· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, steady compared with last week)

· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (21% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, down from 23% last week). There is only a 38% probability of a departure by the end of 2017 (steady compared with last week)

· Tony Abbott is expected to be leader of the Australian Liberal Party on nomination day (63% probability, down from 65% last week) and Bill Shorten is expected to be Labor leader (90% probability, up from 89%)

· Liberals ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (63% probability of Liberal win, up from 57% last week)

· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (49% probability, steady compared with last week). Jeb Bush has a 33% probability of being the Republican nominee (down from 35% last week) followed by Marco Rubio (23%, steady) and Scott Walker (20%, steady)

· There is only a 9% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (down from 13% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 43% probability it will be, steady compared with last week)

· Helen Clark’s chances of being the next UN Secretary General are 25% (up from 23% last week)

· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

Notes:

· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.00 pm today.

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iPredict: New Zealand Weekly Economic and Political Update

Selwyn Manning — Mon, 25 May 2015 02:47:10 +0000

www.ipredict.co.nz

BUDGET BOOSTS NATIONAL AND KEY, BUT PM STILL EXPECTED TO RETIRE BY END OF 2017

Last week’s New Zealand Budget has boosted the ruling National Party and its leader John Key, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. National has a 61% probability of leading the next government, despite Winston Peters’ NZ First Party now leaning towards Labour. After a dip following the so-called “ponytailgate” affair, Mr Key now has an 82% chance of remaining leader of his party through to the end of 2016 and nearly a 50% probability of leading it into the election campaign. There is however just a 15% probability he will remain leader of the National Party and prime minister through to the end of 2017, with Paula Bennett favoured to replace him, ahead of Judith Collins.

The tax on capital gains announced last week appears to have had no short-term effect, with forecast Auckland house prices up again this week. The Official Cash Rate is now expected to be cut twice by the end of October, faster than last week’s forecast that the second cut would not occur until December. (STOP PRESS: AFTER THIS SNAPSHOT WAS TAKEN “BYELECTION IN PAKURANGA” LEAPT TO 99c BEFORE SETTLING BACK AROUND 50c)

New Zealand Politics:

· John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (82% probability, up from 78% last week) but has just a 48% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (down from 50% last week). Mr Key has just a 15% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (up from 11% last week)

· Paula Bennett remains the favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (37%, down from 39% last week), followed by Judith Collins on 21% (up from 19%)

· Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (66% probability, down from 80% last week) and has a 60% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day down from 83% last week). Mr Little has a 49% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (down from 66% last week)

· The race to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party is neck and neck with 50% probability for Kevin Hague (down from 60% last week) and 50% probability for James Shaw (up from 40%)

· Judith Collins has a 50% probability of being appointed to Cabinet this year (steady compared with last week) and a 65% probability of being appointed before the next election (up from 64%)

· Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (86% probability, steady compared with last week) as is Maurice Williamson (71% probability, steady). Mr Williamson is however expected to remain MP for Pakuranga through to the next election (only 25% probability of a byelection, new stock) but not to stand in Pakuranga for National at the next election (only 31% he will, new stock)

· Next election expected in 2017 (94% probability, steady compared with last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)

· Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 44.0% (steady compared with last week)

o Labour 33.8% (up from 33.5%)

o Greens 10.8% (steady)

o NZ First 7.9% (up from 7.6%)

o Others 3.5% (down from 4.0%)

· NZ First has an 83% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (down from 84% last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 51% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (up from 37% last week) a 45% probability it will back National on confidence and supply (down from 60% last week), and a 2% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (steady)

· National prime minister expected after 2017 General Election (61% probability, up from 57% last week)

· David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (83% probability, up from 82% last week) and Gerry Brownlee has an 85% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker (steady)

New Zealand Business & Economics:

· Average Auckland house price expected to rise from $809,200 in April to:

o $815,356 in May (up from $814,337 last week)

o $822,540 in June (up from $818,475)

o $830,430 in July (up from $829,560)

· The average Auckland house price is expected to reach $1,000,000 in 2018 (62% probability)

· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.81% in the March quarter (up from 0.80% last week)

o 0.67% in the June quarter (down from 0.69%)

o 0.90% in the September quarter (down from 0.91%)

o 0.98% in the December quarter (steady)

· Annual growth expected to be 3.39% in the 2015 calendar year (down from 3.43% last week)

· Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.46% in the June quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 5.30% in the September quarter (steady)

o 5.37% in the December quarter (steady)

o 5.45% in the March quarter (up from 5.44%)

· New Zealand pay gaps in 2014/15 expected to be:

o Gender 9.95% (steady compared with last week)

o Maori 12.28% (steady)

o Pacific 23.12% (steady)

o Asian 20.43% (steady)

· Current account deficit expected to be:

o 3.61% of GDP in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 3.57% in the June quarter (steady)

o 3.39% in the September quarter (steady)

o 3.49% in the December quarter (steady)

· Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.39% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.55% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady)

o 0.80% to end of December 2015 quarter (down from 0.82%)

o 1.56% to end of March 2016 quarter (steady)

o 1.47% to end of June 2016 quarter (steady)

· Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.370% on 11 June (down from 3.372% last week)

o 3.225% on 23 July (down from 3.247%)

o 3.147% on 10 September (down from 3.174%)

o 3.101% on 29 October (down from 3.141%)

o 3.056% on 10 December (down from 3.096%)

o 3.046% on 28 January 2016 (down from 3.086%)

o 3.025% on 10 March 2016 (down from 3.065%)

o 3.015% on 28 April 2016 (down from 3.055%)

o 3.003% on 9 June 2016 (down from 3.043%)

· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 11 June 2015 to 3.25% (steady compared with last week) and to be cut again on 29 October 2015 (compared with 10 December 2015 last week)

· Stocks on Australian interest rates are now available for trading

· 5% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (up from 3% last week)

· Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.31% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.32% last week)

o 0.31% of GDP in 2015/16 (down from 0.62%)

o 1.41% of GDP in 2016/17 (up from 1.31%)

o 1.96% of GDP in 2017/18 (up from 1.89%)

· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:

o $4.72 in 2014/15 (steady compared with last week)

o $5.47 in 2015/16 (up from $5.46)

o $6.04 in 2016/17 (down from $6.18)

· Fruit-fly outbreak expected to be contained with fewer than 20 Queensland fruit-flies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (99% probability, up from 94% last week)

· New Zealand dollar not expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (only 12% probability it will achieve parity, down from 13% last week)

· Stocks on tourism arrivals are now available for trading

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

· Andy Burnham is favourite to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party (56% probability, up from 40% last week), ahead of Liz Kendall (29% up from 21%)

· Boris Johnson has a 38% probability of being prime minister before 2020 (up from 37% last week)

· UK expected to vote to stay in EU by end of 2018 (75% probability, new stock)

· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, steady compared with last week)

· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (23% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, up from 18% last week). There is only a 38% probability of a departure by the end of 2017 (down from 40% last week)

· Tony Abbott is expected to be leader of the Australian Liberal Party on nomination day (65% probability, up from 60% last week) and Bill Shorten is expected to be Labor leader (89% probability, steady)

· Liberals ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (57% probability of Liberal win, up from 53% last week)

· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (49% probability, down from 50% last week). Jeb Bush has a 35% probability of being the Republican nominee (down from 37% last week) followed by Marco Rubio (23%, down from 24%) and Scott Walker (20%, steady)

· There is only a 13% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (up from 12% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 43% probability it will be, up from 38% last week)

· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 23% (down from 29% last week)

· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

Notes:

· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.28 pm today.

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iPredict Update: Two Interest Rate Cuts Expected This Year

Selwyn Manning — Tue, 19 May 2015 05:27:18 +0000

iPredict Update: Two Interest Rate Cuts Expected This Year

NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE

www.ipredict.co.nz

Two Interest Rate Cuts Expected This Year

The Official Cash Rate will be cut on 11 June and again by 10 December, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Despite this, annual inflation is not expected to reach 2% until the September 2016 quarter at the earliest. The government’s new tax on capital gains appears to have reduced forecast house price inflation somewhat, but the average Auckland house price is still expected to increase from $809,200 in April to $814,337 in May, $818,475 in June and $829,560 in July. Kevin Hague is expected to be the next male co-leader of the Greens and National is expected to lead the next government with the support of NZ First, although there is now only an 11% probability John Key will still be prime minister by the end of 2017, with Paula Bennett favoured to replace him as National Party leader.

New Zealand Politics:

· John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (78% probability, down from 83% last week) but has just a 50% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (steady compared with last week). Mr Key has just an 11% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (down from 17% last week).

· Paula Bennett remains the favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (39%, up from 37% last week), followed by Judith Collins on 18% (up from 17%).

· Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (80% probability, steady compared with last week) and has a 83% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day up from 75% last week). Mr Little has a 66% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (steady compared with last week).

· Kevin Hague has regained pole position to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party, with 60% probability (up from 39% last week), ahead of James Shaw on 40% probability (down from 62%)

· Judith Collins has a 50% probability of being appointed to Cabinet this year (down from 55% last week) and a 64% probability of being appointed before the next election (down from 71%)

· Tim Groser is expected to be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States (93% probability, up from 90% last week) and Maureen Pugh is expected to become eligible to be a list MP before the next election (95% probability, steady)

· Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (86% probability, down from 93% last week) as is Maurice Williamson (71% probability, up from 53%)

· Next election expected in 2017 (94% probability, steady compared with last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)

· Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 44.0% (steady compared with last week)

o Labour 33.5% (up from 33.1%)

o Greens 10.8% (steady)

o NZ First 7.6% (up from 7.5%)

o Others 4.0% (down from 4.6%)

· NZ First has an 84% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (down from 86% last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 60% probability it will back National on confidence and supply (up from 50% last week), a 37% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (down from 44%) and a 2% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (down from 6%)

· National prime minister expected after 2017 General Election (57% probability, down from 59% last week)

· David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (82% probability, up from 79% last week) and Gerry Brownlee has an 85% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker (up from 83%)

· Almost no chance Wellington councils will be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 4% probability they will be, steady compared with last week)

New Zealand Business & Economics:

· Average Auckland house price expected to rise from $809,200 in April to:

o $814,337 in May (down from $816,302 last week)

o $818,475 in June (down from $821,335)

o $829,560 in July (new stocks)

· The average Auckland house price is expected to remain below $1,000,000 through to the end of 2016 (only 17% probability of passing this point by January 2017)

· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.80% in the March quarter (up from 0.74% last week)

o 0.69% in the June quarter (down from 0.70%)

o 0.91% in the September quarter (up from 0.86%)

o 0.98% in the December quarter (up from 0.88%)

· Annual growth expected to be 3.43% in the 2015 calendar year (up from 3.21% last week)

· Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.46% in the June quarter (up from 5.41% last week)

o 5.30% in the September quarter (steady)

o 5.37% in the December quarter (steady)

o 5.44% in the March quarter (up from 5.43%)

· New Zealand pay gaps in 2014/15 expected to be:

o Gender 9.95% (steady compared with last week)

o Maori 12.28% (steady)

o Pacific 23.12% (steady)

o Asian 20.43% (steady)

· Current account deficit expected to be:

o 3.61% of GDP in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 3.57% in the June quarter (steady)

o 3.39% in the September quarter (steady)

o 3.49% in the December quarter (new stocks)

· Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.39% to end of June 2015 quarter (down from 0.41% last week)

o 0.55% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady)

o 0.80% to end of December 2015 quarter (steady)

o 1.56% to end of March 2016 quarter (up from 1.43%)

o 1.47% to end of June 2016 quarter (up from 1.45%)

· Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.372% on 11 June (down from 3.428% last week)

o 3.247% on 23 July (down from 3.321%)

o 3.174% on 10 September (down from 3.252%)

o 3.141% on 29 October (down from 3.221%)

o 3.096% on 10 December (down from 3.176%)

o 3.086% on 28 January 2016 (down from 3.166%)

o 3.065% on 10 March 2016 (down from 3.145%)

o 3.055% on 28 April 2016 (down from 3.135%)

o 3.043% on 9 June 2016 (down from 3.123%)

· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 11 June 2015 to 3.25% (compared with 23 July 2015 last week) and to be cut again on 10 December 2015 (compared with 9 June 2016 last week)

· Stocks on Australian interest rates are now available for trading

· 3% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (down from 5% last week)

· Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.32% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from -0.31% last week)

o 0.62% of GDP in 2015/16 (up from 0.61%)

o 1.31% of GDP in 2016/17 (up from 1.30%)

o 1.89% of GDP in 2017/18 (up from 1.83%)

· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:

o $4.72 in 2014/15 (up from $4.65 last week)

o $5.46 in 2015/16 (up from $5.43)

o $6.18 in 2016/17 (up from $6.11)

· Campbell Live not expected to be cancelled this year (48% probability it will be, up from 43% probability last week)

· Fruit-fly outbreak expected to be contained with fewer than 20 Queensland fruit-flies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (94% probability, steady compared with last week)

· New Zealand dollar not expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (only 13% probability it will achieve parity, up from 10% last week)

· Stocks on tourism arrivals are now available for trading

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

· Andy Burnham is favourite to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party (40% probability, up from 16% last week), followed by Yvette Cooper (25%, up from 14%) and Liz Kendall (21% up from 14%)

· Boris Johnson has a 37% probability of being prime minister before 2020 (up from 35% last week)

· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, steady compared with last week)

· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (18% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, steady compared with last week). There is only a 40% probability of a departure by the end of 2017 (steady compared with last week)

· Tony Abbott is expected to be leader of the Australian Liberal Party on nomination day (60% probability, up from 43% last week), followed by Malcolm Turnbull (32%, down from 38%) and Julie Bishop (10%, down from 12%)

· Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian Federal election (89% probability, up from 86% last week)

· Liberals marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (53% probability of Liberal win, steady compared with last week)

· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (50% probability, down from 51% last week). Jeb Bush has a 37% probability of being the Republican nominee (down from 40% last week) followed by Marco Rubio (24%, up from 17%) and Scott Walker (20%, down from 21%)

· There is only a 12% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (up from 6% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 38% probability it will be, steady)

· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 29% (steady compared with last week)

· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

Notes:

· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 2.48 pm today.

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iPredict: Average Auckland house to reach $821,335 by end of June

Selwyn Manning — Wed, 13 May 2015 01:27:40 +0000

Source: iPredict.co.nz

iPredict: Average Auckland house to reach $821,335 by end of June

The average Auckland house price is expected to rise by 0.88% in May to $816,302 and by a further 0.62% in June to $821,335, or $1393 a week over two months, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. The Official Cash Rate is now expected to be cut on 23 July and then again on 9 June 2016. Inflation forecasts are up fractionally, but it is still expected to remain below 1.5% through to the middle of next year. Dreams the New Zealand dollar might reach parity with the Australian dollar have almost entirely vanished. James Shaw is now expected to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party. Winston Peters is expected to hold the balance of power after the next election and back a National-led government. Chuka Umunna is expected to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party.

New Zealand Politics:

· John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (83% probability, up from 78% last week) but has just a 50% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (up from 31% last week). Mr Key has just a 17% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (steady compared with last week).

· Paula Bennett remains the favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (37%, steady compared with last week), followed by Judith Collins on 17% (down from 19% last week).

· Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (80% probability, down from 85% last week) and has a 75% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day (down from 85% last week). Mr Little has a 66% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (down from 68% last week).

· Stocks on who is favoured to become Labour Party leader if a vacancy arises will be launched in the near future

· James Shaw is now favourite to be the next co-leader of the Green Party (62% probability, up from 40% last week), ahead of the previous favourite, Kevin Hague (39% probability, down from 60%)

· Judith Collins has a 55% probability of being appointed to Cabinet this year (steady compared with last week) and a 71% probability of being appointed before the next election (up from 67%)

· Tim Groser is expected to be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States (90% probability, down from 96% last week) and Maureen Pugh is expected to become eligible to be a list MP before the next election (95% probability, steady)

· Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (93% probability, steady compared with last week) as is Maurice Williamson (53% probability, new stock)

· Next election expected in 2017 (94% probability, up from 92% last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)

· Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 44.0% (up from 43.8% last week)

o Labour 33.1% (up from 32.8%)

o Greens 10.8% (steady)

o NZ First 7.5% (steady)

o Others 4.6% (down from 5.1%)

· NZ First has an 86% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (up from 66% last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 50% probability it will back National on confidence and supply (down from 54% last week), a 44% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (up from 30%) and a 6% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (down from 16%)

· National prime minister expected after 2017 General Election (59% probability, down from 60% last week)

· David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (79% probability, steady compared with last week) and Gerry Brownlee has an 83% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker (steady)

· Almost no chance Wellington councils will be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 4% probability they will be, down from 5% last week)

New Zealand Business & Economics:

· Average Auckland house price expected to rise from $809,200 in April to:

o $816,302 in May (up from $814,319 last week)

o $821,335 in June (new stocks)

· Stocks for Auckland house prices in July are now available for trading

· New Zealand dollar not expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (only 10% probability it will achieve parity, down from 35% last week)

· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.74% in the March quarter (up from 0.69% last week)

o 0.70% in the June quarter (steady)

o 0.86% in the September quarter (steady)

o 0.88% in the December quarter (down from 0.89%)

· Annual growth expected to be 3.21% in the 2015 calendar year (up from 3.17% last week)

· Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.41% in the June quarter (up from 5.39% last week)

o 5.30% in the September quarter (steady)

o 5.37% in the December quarter (steady)

o 5.43% in the March quarter (new stocks)

· New Zealand pay gaps in 2014/15 expected to be:

o Gender 9.95% (steady compared with last week)

o Maori 12.28% (steady)

o Pacific 23.12% (steady)

o Asian 20.43% (steady)

· Current account deficit expected to be:

o 3.61% of GDP in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 3.57% in the June quarter (steady)

o 3.39% in the September quarter (steady)

o 3.49% in the December quarter (new stocks)

· Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.41% to end of June 2015 quarter (up from 0.38% last week)

o 0.55% to end of September 2015 quarter (up from 0.54%)

o 0.80% to end of December 2015 quarter (steady)

o 1.43% to end of March 2016 quarter (steady)

o 1.47% to end of June 2016 quarter (up from 1.45%)

· Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.428% on 11 June (down from 3.455% last week)

o 3.320% on 23 July (down from 3.410%)

o 3.252% on 10 September (down from 3.362%)

o 3.221% on 29 October (down from 3.343%)

o 3.176% on 10 December (down from 3.300%)

o 3.166% on 28 January 2016 (down from 3.290%)

o 3.145% on 10 March 2016 (down from 3.269%)

o 3.135% on 28 April 2016 (down from 3.259%)

o 3.123% on 9 June 2016 (down from 3.247%)

· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 23 July 2015 to 3.25% (compared with 10 September 2015 last week) and to be cut again on 9 June 2016 (compared with being held at 3.25% until at least that date)

· Stocks on Australian interest rates are now available for trading

· 5% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (up from 3% last week)

· Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.31% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.32% last week)

o 0.61% of GDP in 2015/16 (up from 0.53%)

o 1.30% of GDP in 2016/17 (down from 1.51%)

o 1.83% of GDP in 2017/18 (up from 1.80%)

· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:

o $4.65 in 2014/15 (up from $4.64 last week)

o $5.43 in 2015/16 (up from $5.34)

o $6.11 in 2016/17 (up from $6.10)

· Campbell Live not expected to be cancelled this year (43% probability it will be, up from 25% probability last week)

· Stocks on tourism arrivals are now available for trading

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

· As forecast by iPredict, David Cameron has remained prime minister of the United Kingdom

· Chuka Umunna is favourite to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party (56% probability), followed by Andy Burnham (16%), Liz Kendall (14%) and Yvette Cooper (14%)

· Boris Johnson has a 35% probability of being prime minister before 2020 (steady compared with last week)

· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, steady compared with last week)

· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (18% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, down from 22% last week). There is only a 40% probability of a departure by the end of 2017

· Tony Abbott is favourite to be leader of the Australian Liberal Party on nomination day (43% probability, up from 42% last week), followed by Malcolm Turnbull (38% probability) and Julie Bishop (12%)

· Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian Federal election (86% probability, down from 87% last week)

· Liberals marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (53% probability of Liberal win, steady compared with last week)

· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (51% probability, down from 52% last week). Jeb Bush has a 40% probability of being the Republican nominee (steady compared with last week) followed by Scott Walker (21% probability, down from 23%) and Marco Rubio (17% probability, down from 19%)

· There is only a 6% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (down from 8% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 38% probability it will be, steady)

· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 29% (steady compared with last week)

· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

Notes:

· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 10.56 am today.

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