The global seafood market faces turmoil with the release of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater from Japan into the Pacific Ocean, computer modelling predicts.

Japan announced in 2021 it will release more than 1.25 million tonnes of treated Fukushima radioactive wastewater into the sea as part of its plan to decommission the power station when its storage capacity reaches its limit this year.

Seafood is one of the most important food commodities in international trade, far exceeding meat and milk products.

According to the United Nations Comtrade database, global seafood trade has grown from US$7.57 billion in 2009 to US$12.36 billion in 2019, an increase of 63.2 percent.

The Japanese nuclear wastewater discharge raises global worries about the safety of Japanese seafood as public opinion influences consumers’ preference for seafood.

In this empirical study involving American consumers, 30 percent of respondents said they reduced their seafood consumption following the Fukushima nuclear plant accident and more than half believe Asian seafood poses a risk to consumer health due to the disaster.

Temporary bans
Most of Japan’s seafood trading partners, such as China, Russia, India and South Korea, imposed temporary bans on food from several districts around Fukushima in the wake of the accident in 2011.

My research models the potential impact of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater disposal on the global seafood trade using the import and export data for 26 countries which make up more than 92 percent of the world’s trade in marine products.

A community classification theory of complex networks was used to classify seafood trading countries into three communities. Seafood trade is frequent among countries within each individual community and less between the communities.

The first community contains Ecuador, Italy, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. The second contains Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The third community contains China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan of China, Russia, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam.

Modelling shows China, South Korea, and the US maintain a steady trade of seafood imports and exports between them. Data used for the modelling shows that the rate of change in trade between China and Korea, China and the US and between Korea and the US is very close to zero.

However, China, South Korea and the US are expected to increase their seafood imports from Denmark, France, Norway and other community group two countries while reducing seafood exports to them. This is because these three countries have already reduced their seafood trade with Japan.

The increase in exports from community group three to community group two nations leads to a decrease in imports and exports between countries within community group two. For example, the study notes that Denmark, Norway and France are all experiencing a decrease in seafood exports and imports between each other.

While the rates of change in trade between countries look very close, the size of each country’s import and export market is different, so the actual trade volume can vary greatly.

The model also divided the global seafood market into two segments — the first being the Japanese market and the second comprising 25 other countries. It calculated that Japan’s seafood exports fell by 19 percent in 2021, or US$259 million.

Different impacts
Public opinion after the Fukushima wastewater is discharged will have different impacts on the import and export trade of seafood for each country, especially for countries which trade with Japan.

What people think (about the discharge) is closely related to the amount of Japanese seafood imported by each country. The higher the amount of Japanese seafood imported by a particular country, the more negative public opinion is likely to be, according to computer modelling.

Japanese imports of seafood will also be reduced, predicts the computer model. However, the amount of reduction depends on how well the Japanese public accepts local seafood after the discharge of the nuclear wastewater.

The Japanese government has announced it will spend US$260 million to buy local seafood products if domestic sales are affected by the release of Fukushima wastewater.

If the Japanese public is more accepting of seafood caught in waters around the discharge area, seafood imports from other countries to Japan will likely fall. However, if public opinion does not go this way, Japan will have to import more seafood to meet local demand.

Reduced imports
If 40 percent of the reduction in Japanese seafood exports is absorbed by its own market, the modelling shows this would result in a US$272 million reduction in Japanese seafood imports from other countries.

The table pictured above from the computer model shows the predicted decrease in the trade volume of seafood exports from 25 countries to Japan. The impact of seafood exported to Japan is also related to the community classification.

Countries in the same community as Japan show a more significant reduction in their seafood exports to Japan while countries not in the same community have less impact. The planned Fukushima nuclear wastewater disposal will mainly affect countries in the same seafood trading community as Japan.

These countries will see more significant reductions in their imports of Japanese seafood and in the exports of their seafood to Japan compared to countries in other communities.

Ming Wang is a doctoral candidate in econometrics, complex networks and multi-modal transportation at the School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, China. He declares no conflict of interest. Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info via Wansolwara.

Vanuatu-flagged Chinese fishing boat lands Port Vila in hot water with the Cook Islands. Image: Vanuatu Daily Post File

Compiled by Jane Usher in Port Vila

Vanuatu has reached an agreement to pay a substantial fine to the Cooks Islands, after Rarotonga reported a Vanuatu-flagged fishing boat for possible blacklisting in the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) Vessel List.

Director of Fisheries, Kalo Pakoa, has confirmed that the flagged vessel, a Chinese-flagged long liner ESSEN 108 entered into Cook Islands’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in December 2015.

The matter was not reported in time and it was mid-2016 when Vanuatu got a report from the Cook Islands, and kickstarted negotiations for a settlement.

“We have managed to get the ship owner or the operator to commit to a fine to pay the Cook Islands,” Director Pakoa told Vanuatu Nightly News’ Kizzy Kalsakau.

“The fine is based on Vanuatu laws and is around $US180,000, which is almost equivalent to Vt18 million.

“We have received this money and we are working with the Ministry of Fisheries in the Cook Islands to settle the fine before they can proceed to remove our vessel from the potential listing under illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing,” Pakoa said.

“We are now waiting for the Department of Finance to sort out the internal financial matters, so that we can transfer the funds to the Cook Islands.”

Once settled, Vanuatu will not be blacklisted.

“We are in the process of settling the matter, so it rules out any possibility of blacklisting,” the director assured.

Strict measures
The director said Vanuatu had very strict measures about its flagged vessels.

“We are trying to sort this out before the Commission convenes in Nadi, Fiji, next week,” he added.

“Our officials are now in Fiji and we are waiting for the Department of Finance to complete the process so we can transmit the money to Cook Islands.”

The WCPFC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday.

Referring to the WCPFC Technical and Compliance Committee’s report on November 17,  Islands Business magazine stated that the Cook Islands would be willing to withdraw the nominated listing as both countries are already in talks to resolve the matter.

Director Pakoa has confirmed Vanuatu will be attending the WCPFC meeting, represented by the Director General of Foreign Affairs and two officers from the Department of Fisheries.

The Department of Fisheries has continued to progress in its effort to effectively deter and eliminate IUU fishing activities, by its national flag fishing fleet of around 136 fishing vessels.

Less than six months ago, Vanuatu was the recipient of a certificate of recognition by the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) for its commitment to fighting illegal fishing worldwide.

Jane Usher is a Vanuatu Daily Post reporter.