By Joe Emersberger

Both Ecuador and Nicaragua elected a president and national assembly this year.  Ecuador’s elections took place in February, with the second round of its presidential election in April. Nicaragua’s took place on November 7. Just by scanning headlines in Western media, as most readers do, it’s easy to tell which was a U.S. ally and which was an official enemy.

(By “enemy,” I mean a government that poses no threat to the U.S.,  but still gets hit with  crippling sanctions, or worse, that it endures as best it can.)

A search of the Nexis news database for the word “crackdown” in articles about Ecuador and Nicaragua in newspapers in the U.S.,  Canada, and the UK for a five-month period before the election in each country reveals a significant contrast between reporting on Nicaragua and Ecuador. In the case of Ecuador, not a single headline alleged any kind of  crackdown on opposition to the government. In the case of Nicaragua, 55 headlines alleged an unjustifiable crackdown. Some examples:

• “Nicaragua’s Democracy Hangs by Thread as Crackdown Deepens” (New York Times, 6/6/21)
• “Human Rights Groups Have Eyes on Growing Crackdown; UN, Other Organizations Fear Upcoming Elections Won’t Be Fair and Free” (Toronto Star, 6/27/21)
• “Nicaragua Arrests Seventh Presidential Contender in November 7 vote” (Independent, 7/24/21)
• “We Are in This Nightmare’: Nicaragua Continues Its Brazen Crackdown” (Guardian, 8/12/21)
• “‘Everyone Is on the List’: Fear Grips Nicaragua as It Veers to Dictatorship” (New York Times, 9/5/21)
• “Nicaraguan Business Leaders Arrested in Ortega’s Pre-Election Crackdown” (Guardian, 10/22/21)
• “An Election in Nicaragua That Could Further Dim Democracy; Daniel Ortega Runs for His Fourth Consecutive Term as President of Nicaragua Virtually Uncontested, Having Imprisoned All His Political Rivals” (Christian Science Monitor, 11/4/21)

There was actually a crackdown in Nicaragua, but it was a defensible crackdown on persons receiving (and laundering) money from the U.S.,  a foreign power that has victimized Nicaragua for over a century. If one disregards that history, it’s easy, especially from afar, to take a libertarian position that the crackdown was unjustified. That was clearly the western media’s approach.

A U.S. crackdown since 1912

Remarkably, Daniel Ortega is the only president Nicaragua has had since 1912 who has not owed his position to murderous U.S. support. From 1912 until 1933, U.S. occupation troops ran the country directly, and structured the Nicaraguan military to ensure that brutal pro-US dictatorships (primarily of the Somoza family) would govern for decades afterwards.

Ortega first became president in 1979, after his Sandinista political movement overthrew the US-backed Somoza dictatorship in an armed revolution. Ortega was elected in 1984 (the first free and fair elections Nicaragua ever had–Extra!, 10-11/87), despite the country having to contend with US-backed terrorists known as the Contras, and with ruinous sanctions the U.S. imposed on the country throughout the 1980s (FAIR.org, 8/23/18).

By 1990, the Contra war had claimed 30,000 lives and, combined with U.S. sanctions, left the economy devastated. U.S. allies, backed by seditious media outlets in Nicaragua like La Prensa, secured Ortega’s defeat at the polls that year. The real winner was U.S. President George H.W. Bush. Allegations that Putin’s Russia influenced the 2016 election in the United States by hacking the DNC’s emails are a joke compared to what the U.S. undeniably achieved in 1990 in Nicaragua: The U.S. used terrorism and economic blackmail against an entire country to achieve an “electoral” victory in 1990.

In its coverage of the 2021 election, Reuters (11/5/21) referred to the 1990 triumph of U.S. aggression in Nicaragua by saying that Ortega’s “defeat left a deep mark on the leftist leader. Battling 16 years to regain the presidency, his opponents say he is now determined to retain power at any cost.” The article’s headline was “Ortega and Murillo, the Presidential Couple With an Iron Grip on Nicaragua.” (Rosario Murillo, Ortega’s spouse, is also his vice president.)

Ironically, the article actually mentioned some facts that expose the iron grip the U.S. has usually had on Nicaragua for over a century–referring to Somoza, for example, as “the last dictator of a US-backed family dynasty established in the 1930s.” But the article did not link that history to the grave threat the U.S. poses to Nicaragua today. That’s something it could easily have done by quoting independent critics of U.S. foreign policy who would have made that connection.

Ortega’s electoral record

Ortega regained the presidency in the 2006 elections, one of many left-leaning Latin American presidents (like Rafael Correa in Ecuador) who won elections in this century, after a disastrous neoliberal era under right-wing governments. By 2017, impressive economic gains by the Ortega  government made it the most popular in the Americas among 18 surveyed by Latinobarómetro, a Chile-based pollster funded by Western governments, including the US. The 67% approval rate for the Nicaraguan government in that poll was actually higher than the 47% of eligible voters who handed Ortega his 2016 re-election electoral victory (72% of the vote on a 66% turnout).

By December 2020, Latinobarómetro found Ortega’s government  enjoyed 42% approval (in a report that repeatedly called Nicaragua a “dictatorship”)–still above average in the region, despite the US-backed coup attempt in 2018, subsequent U.S. sanctions and threats, as well as the pandemic. That points to a substantial hardcore base of support for Ortega–and poll numbers (again, from a hostile pollster funded by hostile governments) that are not out of line with the 46% of the eligible vote Ortega won on November 7 (in an election with 65% turnout).  It’s worth stressing that Ortega is the historic leader of the movement that overthrew the Somoza family, a fact that by itself makes the existence of a hardcore Sandinista base easy to credit.

In mid-October, less than a month before the 2021 election, Nicaragua’s right-wing media hyped a poll by CID Gallup claiming that Ortega’s support had dropped to 19%, but the same poll suggested turnout in the election (in which there was allegedly no opposition) would be between 51% and 68%. It claimed 51% were very likely to vote and another 17% somewhat likely. In the wake of Ortega’s win, that contradictory finding in the CID Gallup poll (evidence that it was badly skewed in favor of anti-Sandinistas) was ignored to allege massive abstention of about 80%.

As usual, pollsters, independent election observers and independent journalists on the ground who refuted Western media claims about the election were simply ignored, in some cases suspended from social media, and in one instance subjected to vulgar abuse by a prominent U.S. pundit.

Coup attempt of 2018

In 2018, Ortega’s unpopular US-backed opponents clearly applied the lesson of 1990: Violence and sabotage backed by a superpower and its propagandists may eventually produce an “electoral” victory. Violent protests aimed at driving Ortega from office were launched in 2018 from mid-April until late July.

La Prensa–an anti-Sandinista paper that has been funded by the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy, which ex-Contra spokesperson Edgar Chammoro described as a CIA “propaganda asset” (Extra!, 10–11/87)–predictably supported the 2018 coup attempt, claiming in June of that year that 70% of Nicaragua’s roads were blocked by protesters. Imagine how violent and well-armed U.S. protesters would need to be to block a large majority of the country’s roads for months. In 2011, 700 Occupy Wall Street protesters were immediately arrested for blocking traffic on the Brooklyn Bridge for a few hours. In fact, careful assessments of the 2018 coup attempt in Nicaragua, that relied heavily on anti-Sandinista sources,  showed that the opposition was responsible for about as many deaths as the government and its supporters.

The coup attempt was defeated, but it gave the U.S. a “human rights” pretext to vilify and sanction Nicaragua’s government. Independent journalist John Perry, a Nicaraguan resident, recently noted in FAIR.org (11/3/21) that hundreds of people involved in the coup attempt actually benefited from an amnesty law passed in 2019. But Washington demands total impunity–no jail time and full political rights–for all the criminals it supports. Ben Norton explained the consequences of pressure the U.S.,  OAS and prominent human rights NGOs applied for the release of alleged poltical prisoners: “Droves of criminals with lengthy rap sheets have been freed, and one has already murdered a pregnant 22-year-old woman”.

In other cases, charges against Ortega’s opponents stemmed from  the “passage of a ‘foreign agents’ law designed to track foreign funding of organizations operating in the country,” as the Associated Press (9/2/21) put it. AP neglected to clarify that the law is aimed at disrupting the free flow of U.S. government funds to political groups that indisputably tried to overthrow Ortega in 2018 (COHA, 6/8/21). The wire service obscured these key facts by using vague language and by presenting facts as mere allegations made by Ortega, who “has claimed that organizations receiving funding from abroad were part of a broader conspiracy to remove him from office in 2018.”

Further highlighting that Ortega’s opponents and its U.S. sponsors feel entitled to overthrow the government, the “foreign agents” law indirectly led to charges against children of Violeta Chamorro, the ex-president who in 1990 scored an“electoral” victory over Ortega that was a product of US-backed terrorism.  The Chamorro Foundation received millions in USAID funding until it shut itself down in protest at the “foriegn agents” law. Ortega’s government then charged its director Cristiana María Chamorro Barríos with money laundering based on the allegation that she did not properly account for where all that money went.

No opposition in DC

On November 3, as Ortega and the Sandinistas were days away from an electoral victory, the U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to intensify sanctions on Nicaragua’s government. Reuters (11/3/21) reported that the “House of Representatives passed the bill 387–35 with strong bipartisan support, following a similar vote by the Senate this week.”  At the same time, U.S.-based social media corporations cracked down on pro-Sandinista accounts. In other words, U.S. state and private power united in attacking Nicaragua’s government while hypocritically alleging that Ortega had no real opposition.

Perry noted that among the participants on November 7 were “two opposition parties that formed governments between 1990 and 2007, and still have significant support.” But the larger point is that Ortega’s most dangerous opposition resides in Washington, and it has always tormented Nicaragua with complete impunity.

A popular government defending itself against a violent US-backed opposition was depicted by Western media as instigating an unprovoked crackdown on defenders of democracy–ignoring the US’s grim record of successfully crushing Nicaraguan democracy since 1912.

Betrayal in Ecuador

That’s not the treatment the media dished out to the former president of Ecuador, Lenin Moreno, during elections this year.

The crackdown in Ecuador that merited no accusatory headlines was driven by a stunning betrayal of Ecuadorian voters in 2017. That year, then-Vice President Lenín Moreno ran as a staunch loyalist to left wing incumbent President Rafael Correa, who held office from 2007 to 2017. But after defeating right-wing banker Guillermo Lasso at the polls, Moreno proceeded to implement Lasso’s political platform for the next four years.

Western media outlets were delighted with Moreno’s cynicism (FAIR.org, 2/4/18, Counterpunch.org, 2/9/18). Voters were not so delighted, however, and by 2020 his approval rating fell to 9%, according to Latinobarómetro.

To pull off his betrayal of the political movement that got him elected, Moreno jailed, exiled and banned Correa loyalists from running in elections throughout his years in office (CounterPunch.org, 12/21/18, 10/15/19, 12/3/19; FAIR.org, 2/16/21). Moreno’s pretext was that Correa (whom he had always praised extravagantly) was actually corrupt, and had left the country heavily indebted. The lie about Ecuador’s debt was especially easy to refute, but Western media happily spread it anyway (FAIR.org 10/23/19).

Moreno’s harassment of WikiLeaks‘ Julian Assange (whom Correa had protected for years after he sought asylum in the Ecuadorian embassy in London) also failed to damage Moreno’s credibility with Western media (FAIR.org, 11/3/18). Moreno eventually handed Assange over to UK police (FAIR.org, 4/12/19), thereby helping the U.S. crack down on press freedom around the world.

Banned for ‘psychic influence’

This year, Lasso ran against Andrés Arauz, a pragmatic leftist who tried to register Correa as his running mate. Lasso’s win in the fairly close runoff election owed an enormous debt to the persecution of Correa loyalists that Moreno had perpetrated for years (MRonline.org, 5/6/21).

Shortly before the election, Correa was banned from running for vice president, thanks to a farcical judgment (sped through judicial appeals in record time, despite the pandemic, to beat the electoral calendar) that found him guilty of “psychic influence” over officials who had taken bribes. Correa was therefore not just banned from running: He’d also be jailed if he returned to Ecuador.

Absurd rulings like this were possible because Moreno trampled all over judicial independence while in office. In 2018, a body that Moreno handpicked fired and appointed replacements to the Judicial Council and the entire Constitutional Court. (Counterpunch, 10/12/2018) The same handpicked body (the CPCCS-T in its Spanish acronym) also appointed a new attorney general and a new electoral council. [1]

Correa’s former vice president (Jorge Glas) has been jailed since 2017 on similarly trumped-up grounds.  Prominent Correa allies like Ricardo Patiño and Gabriela Rivadeneira remain in exile. Electoral authorities even banned the use of Correa’s image in campaign ads by his loyalists.

Several months before the election, a Moreno cabinet secretary openly bragged about the crackdown in a TV interview (FAIR.org 2/16/21), saying that it was a “big risk being a Correaist candidate, because the justice system will have its eyes on those who have not yet fled or been convicted.”

A key to Moreno’s crackdown was that Ecuador’s state media and big private TV were united in vilifying Correa and his loyalists. Weeks before the runoff election in April, Moreno’s attorney general appeared before the media with her Colombian counterpart to bolster absurd accusations that Arauz had been funded by the Colombian rebel group ELN.  Ten days later, the U.S. State Department singled out Ecuador’s attorney general as one of its “anti corruption champions.” (Incidentally, Arauz has just come under investigation again in retaliation for explaining exactly how Pandora Papers revelations prove that Lasso’s entire 2021 campaign was illegal.)

As Moreno’s term ended, the New York Times (2/7/21) portrayed this cynical authoritarian as a “highly unpopular” but sincere reformer–a man who merely punished corruption, and who genuinely worried that “leaders with too tight a grip on power are unhealthy for democracies.”

Correa and his political movement had become dominant in Ecuador for a decade by winning elections and implementing successful policies that broke with neoliberalism.  A ten year break from neoliberalism was a threat to democracy that warranted a crackdown in the eyes of the New York Times, not over a century (and counting) of a lethal U.S. assault on Nicaragua’s sovereignty.

Concealing Western hypocrisy is essential to helping the world’s most powerful state behave like a global dictator, and Western media reliably provide that assistance.

Research assistance: Jasmine Watson

[Main photo credit: by Becca Mohally Renk, from JHC-CDCA]

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NOTE

[1] The National Assembly had 20 days to choose seven standing and seven alternates from a shortlist of 21 names Moreno gave them. Any posts left vacant by the National Assembly would be automatically filled from Moreno’s list taking into account in the order in which Moreno listed them;ee “Lenín Moreno presentó los 21 nombres de las ternas para el Cpccs transitorio,” El Comercio, February 19, 2018

By William Camacaro and Frederick Mills
From NY and Washington DC

On February 7, the progressive presidential candidate for the Union of Hope Alliance (UNES) party, Andrés Arauz, won first place in Ecuador’s presidential election; this is uncontested. Arauz garnered 32.71% of the vote; right-wing former banker Guillermo Lasso 19.74%; and the “Indigenous” candidate, Yaku Pérez  19.38%. Since Arauz’s margin of victory was less than the required 40% plus at least ten points more than the closest competitor, a runoff is scheduled for April 11th. With the UN calling for transparency and Pérez contesting the outcome, Ecuador’s National Electoral Council (CNE) has agreed to conduct a partial recount to verify the second place contender.

This election will have enormous consequences for Ecuador as well as the entire region. After four years of President Lenin Moreno’s neoliberal turn, which reversed the economic and social gains of former President Rafael Correa’s Citizens’ Revolution, the majority of Ecuadorians have opted for a change of course. An Arauz victory would once again prioritize social investment over IMF imposed austerity and resume Ecuador’s leadership in the movement towards regional integration. If the ultra right in Ecuador and Colombia have their way, however, Arauz will not make it to the run-off election.

Just a week prior to the first round, with Arauz ahead in most polls, Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno, who is a fierce opponent of the UNES candidate, met with the notoriously interventionist Secretary General of the OAS, Luis Almagro, in Washington. This meeting raised suspicions that efforts were underway to prevent a return of the Citizens’ Revolution in Ecuador.  On February 12th,  the Attorney General of Colombia, Francisco Barbosa arrived in Quito to meet with his Ecuadorian counterpart, Diana Salazar, armed with a dossier that allegedly shows the campaign of Arauz had received funding from the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerillas in Colombia. Although no independent corroboration of such charges have been presented to back these allegations, the echo chamber of right wing fake news is already urging election authorities in Ecuador to disqualify UNES in a bid to prevent Arauz from participating in the second round of the presidential election.

In his Facebook page, Arauz categorically denied this accusation: “I have no link with the ELN. This big lie has just one purpose, to prevent the Arauz-Rabascall ticket from participating in the second round.”

Prominent voices of the Americas have denounced these charges as fabrications designed to sabotage democratic procedures in Ecuador. Nobel Peace Prize Winner (1980), Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, tweeted: “They will not be able to fool the Ecuadorian people with judicial and media operations from the well known Lawfare manual. Democracy will prevail. Ecuador has suffered a great deal and needs a return to common sense. Our support for candidate Arauz.”

Former Colombian President Ernesto Samper, in response to an article published in the ultra-right wing Colombian magazine, Semana, alleging that Arauz had links to the ELN, wrote: “The people of Ecuador should be on the alert that the enemies of progressivism in our countries are intent on stopping by any means the transformations for which Latin America clamours.” In the face of criticism of the unsubstantiated charges made against Arauz in the article, the Director of Semana, Victoria Avila, remarked in an interview “I want to make it very clear. I do not want to say that this information is absolutely certain.”

The Puebla Group, which brings together several former presidents of the region, including the Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva, issued a statement in which it “categorically rejects the attempt to link Andrés Arauz with the National Liberation Army.”

Former President of Bolivia, Evo Morales, who himself was forced into exile by an OAS backed coup in November 2019, tweets: “We sound an alert about a plan by the right and the US in Ecuador to try to prevent the triumph of Arauz in the second round, using the Attorney General of Colombia, right-wing parties and the OAS. We have the obligation to defend democracy and our regional integration. Be alert!”

The outcome of the presidential election in Ecuador will no doubt have a significant impact on the politics of the entire region. As Correa points out, these elections provide an opportunity “to recover UNASUR”. If elected, Arauz has promised to champion the revival of UNASUR and return this South American nation to ALBA. There is also a growing consensus in South America in support of these regional integration and cooperation mechanisms. With the election of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) candidate, Luis Arce, for President of Bolivia last October, an Arauz victory in Ecuador would fortify UNASUR at a most critical time. In the face of the ongoing COVID 19 pandemic, the benefits of multilateralism have become obvious in efforts throughout the Americas to obtain urgently needed medical supplies and vaccines from a variety of countries. Given the return of progressive governance in Argentina, Mexico, and Bolivia within the last three years, a victory in Ecuador could signal a new pink tide.

Fred Mills is co-Director of COHA. William Camacaro is Senior Analyst at COHA

[Photo Credit: Andrés Arauz Twitter account]

By Danny Shaw
From New York

On February 7, Ecuador will hold elections for President and for its legislative body, with 137 positions to be decided for the National Assembly. Though 16 presidential candidates participated in the debates, there are three major candidates. Andrés Arauz and his vice presidential candidate, Carlos Rabascall, represent La Unión por la Esperanza (The Union of Hope, UNES), what was Alianza País led by former president Rafael Correa before the party split in 2017. Guayaquil banker Guillermo Lasso and Alfredo Borrero are the candidates for the conservative alliance Creando Oportunidades (Creating Opportunities, CREO). Carlos “Yacu” Pérez is the candidate of the indigenous Pachakutik Party.

Many from the Correa camp have questioned Pérez’s genuine commitment to defend indigenous communities and remember that some factions of the Pachakutik Party have, in the past, opportunistically aligned with the right against Correísmo.^[1] The election represents a showdown between ten years of the Revolución Ciudadana (Citizens’ Revolution, 2007-2017) and the past four disastrous years of unfettered neoliberalism. As of now, polls show Arauz, Correa’s candidate, is clearly in the lead, polling at 37% and Lasso at 24%.^[2]

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The Advances of La Revolución Ciudadana

Rafael Correa’s presidential victory in 2006 was a key part of the Pink Tide and South American effort to realize Bolívar’s dream of regional economic and political integration and independence from foreign domination. As Minister of Economy and Finance in 2005, Correa distinguished himself from other politicians by calling out the pitfalls of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans, advocating for social planning and proposing a National Assembly to tap into the power of Ecuador’s diverse working sectors.^[3]

It is important to  outline the progressive nature of the Correa administration. During Correa’s two terms, the 17 million people of Ecuador saw increases in the minimum wage and social security benefits, a progressive tax on the rich, and higher investments in education and social programs, all while attaining economic growth.^[4] For this reason, traditional interests and their U.S. backers opposed Alianza País and sought to sew internal divisions and solidify alliances with sections of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, CONAIE.

The Story of a “Vendepatria”^[5]

The leadership and rank-and-file of Alianza País understood that Lenin Moreno, who had served as Rafael Correa’s vice-president for six years, was best positioned to carry Correísmo forward. Within months of winning the presidency in 2017, however, Moreno reneged on his campaign promises. In one of the great about-faces in the history of South America, Moreno betrayed the movement and embraced a neoliberal model for Ecuador. Under Moreno, Ecuador also withdrew from the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) in 2018 and pulled out of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) in 2019, weakening two of the most important instruments of continental unity.^[6]

Throughout the ups and downs and contradictions of the entire liberatory project, the leadership of the Citizens’ Revolution has maintained a self-critical posture. After the election of Lenin Moreno, Alianza País split into pro-Moreno and pro-Correa tendencies. This speaks to the reality that some of Alianza País’ functionaries were not guided by principles but were rather attracted to power. Sections of CONAIE have sustained legitimate critiques of Correísmo, including concerns over the environmental impact of resource exploitation and infrastructure projects. These are problems the Correista leadership continues to address and it shows the importance of the ethical and political formation of a new generation of Ecuadoreans.^[7]

Ricardo Patiño’s book Construir Poder Transformador. Debate Latinoamericano, lays out the pitfalls of over reliance on Correa’s charisma and indicates some of the challenges that lay ahead (Patiño is the Former Minister of Foreign Affairs under Correa’s Presidency). The grassroots leadership of UNES warns of dependence on one savior and the importance of building an entire movement that can independently defend its interests: “The fundamental problem has been an absence of a solid and profound counter-hegemonic ideology that guides the decisions, practices and relations of the popular sectors as well as political leaders.” ^[8]

Will the Tide again Turn?

In an example of flipping reality on its head in 2017, the incoming Moreno government immediately accused the Citizens’ Revolution of wanton corruption. Similar to the oligarchies’ attacks demonizing the Pink Tide in Brazil, Paraguay, Venezuela, Bolivia and across the continent, this was a classic case of Lawfare.^[9] The neoliberals, fearful of the enormous popularity of Correísmo, waged a war through judicial means. Jorge Glas, former vice-president under Correa, is still in jail on trumped-up charges and recently contracted the coronavirus.^[10] Ricardo Patiño and the President of the National Assembly Gabriela Rivadeneira are still in exile in Mexico. Correa himself is banned from his homeland and faces years in jail on  highly dubious charges of corruption.

An Arauz victory would open the country back up to those who put human life in community before private accumulation and carry forth an agenda that targets the real culprits of corruption.^[11]

Again, most polls have Andrés Arauz, the UNES candidate, in the lead.^[12] Alarmed at another potential loss of ground in the continental struggle for power between an independent left-wing, anti-imperialist movement, the old order beholden to U.S. interests is scrambling to prevent Arauz’s electoral victory. There is good reason to be concerned. In November 2019, the U.S.-dominated Organization of American States (OAS) backed a coup in Bolivia to prevent an electoral victory by MAS candidate and incumbent president Evo Morales, and it took a year for the popular movements to restore their democracy.  Concerned about a renewed attempt to sabotage democratic institutions in Ecuador, former Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa has warned that Moreno’s meeting with  OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro this week in Washington DC may be a prelude to a similar attempt at OAS subversion.^[13] The corporate-dominated media has provided the disinformation for this by publishing material which constitutes scare tactics and red-baiting against Arauz, claiming that his intention is to turn Ecuador into “another Venezuela.”^[14] There are allegations of vote-tampering, and UNES has warned the population to be ready for any type of chicanery.^[15]

Another key issue in the election are the IMF loans that the current administration negotiated with western banks that force austerity on an already beleaguered people. IMF loans to the region and exploited countries have long been a neocolonial tactic for extracting wealth from developing countries. As the old proverb goes: “those who lend, command.” Under the guise of humanitarian help with the raging pandemic, the IMF issued  loans to an all too willing Moreno administration to the tune of 6.5 billion dollars just before the close of 2020.^[16] As is customary, the IMF stipulated austerity, the deregulation of the Central Bank and sale of gasoline and diesel without subsidies and at world market prices. Lasso has indicated that if elected president, he would not disavow the IMF agreement, drawing a stark contrast between himself and Arauz, who said he will renegotiate the country’s deal.^[17]

One of Trump’s 11th hour actions before leaving office was to oversee a U.S. Development Corporation loan to Ecuador for 3.5 billion dollars that requires the government to privatize a major oil refinery and parts of the country’s electrical grid, and to exclude China from its telecommunications development.^[18] Washington is alarmed at the growing Chinese influence across South America and the Global South and sees Ecuador as an important beachhead to prosecute this “New Cold War” through the Growth in the Americas (CRECE) program. Moreno was more than happy to be a major U.S. client in the region along with Iván Duque and Laurentino Cortizo, the presidents of Colombia and Panama respectively. Vijay Prashad evaluates how the two global powers treated Ecuador in the context of waning U.S. hegemony: “Chinese banks lent money for the construction projects. These funds came with no conditions. The U.S. government money, on the other hand, came with substantial claims on the government of Ecuador’s policy orientation.” The result is the Ecuadorian people suffer, as they now have a debt totalling $52 billion.^[19]

What’s at Stake

In October 2019, a massive protest movement rocked the country. The world watched with bated breath as a grassroots movement opposed to austerity measures occupied Quito and nearly toppled the Moreno government. The government attempted to crush the protests, leaving at least ten dead, more than 1,000 people arrested and more than 1,300 injured.^[20] When repression failed to quell the protests, Moreno rescinded on an International Monetary Fund-backed program, known as Decree 883, that raised fuel prices, proving again the power of a united, mobilized people.

The year 2020 ushered in a new tragedy for Ecuador. The Moreno government failed to respond adequately to the COVID-19 pandemic in any serious, unified way. Abandoned bodies lined the streets of Guayaquil last April putting on tragic display before the entire world, the misleadership of Ecuador’s largest city, long governed by neoliberal politicians.^[21] These dehumanizing images encapsulated what three years of Lenin’s economic and political agenda has meant for everyday people. On January 26, 2021, Ecuador’s Parliament began the process of impeaching Health Minister Juan Zavallos for mismanaging the COVID-19 vaccination program, and a few days later Ecuador’s chief prosecutor began an investigation into Zavallos for alleged influence peddling.^[22] On January 29, police in Quito shut down a clinic for giving out 70,000 fake vaccines.^[23] TV presenter Efraín Ruales, who had reported on corruption in the current administration, was gunned down and murdered on January 27.^[24] As of now, there are 249,779 coronavirus cases in Ecuador and 14,851 deaths.^[25]

This is the backdrop for this week’s election, not just for the 17 million people of Ecuador and hundreds of thousands of others in the diaspora, but for the future of the Pink Tide in Latin America. Will Ecuador continue down the road of subordination to neoliberal imperatives of the IMF and Washington, or will it resume the Citizens’ Revolution and rejoin the movement towards regional integration and independence? This decisive election will determine Ecuador’s direction for the next four years and beyond.

Danny Shaw teaches Latin American and Caribbean Studies at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and Hostos College, and is a Senior Research fellow at COHA.

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Sources

^[1] “In Defense of Rafael Correa Interview with Guillaume Long”, https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/09/ecuador-rafael-correa-alianza-pais-quito-conaie-peoples-strike-protest

^[2] “Injerencia estadunidense en los comicios ecuatorianos”, https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2021/01/30/politica/injerencia-estadunidense-en-los-comicios-ecuatorianos/?s=09

^[3] Patiño, Ricardo. Construir Poder Transformador. Debate Latinoamericano.

^[4] “In Defense of Rafael Correa”, https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/09/ecuador-rafael-correa-alianza-pais-quito-conaie-peoples-strike-protest

^[5] A sell-out

^[6] “ALBA Boss Chastizes Ecuador For Abandoning Regional Bloc”, https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/ALBA-Boss-Chastizes-Ecuador-For-Abandoning-Regional-Bloc-20180824-0022.html, and “Ecuador pulls out of South American regional group Unasur”, https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2019/03/14/Ecuador-pulls-out-of-South-American-regional-group-Unasur/8621552588693/

^[7] Sigfrido Reyes Tweet. https://twitter.com/sigfridoreyes/status/1334309069201543172

^[8] “The fundamental problem has been the absence of a counter hegemonic ideology, solid and deep, that guides the decisions, practices and relationships of popular sectors and also political leadership,” from Patiño, Ricardo. Construir Poder Transformador. Debate Latinoamericano.

^[9] “La Guerra Judicial en Latinoamérica – Lawfare In the Backyard”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oi5fEkK77ok&t=2262s

^[10] Correo del Alba, https://twitter.com/correodelalba/status/1355217023769452558?s=08

^[11] “Combate a la corrupción: un reto de la perspectiva de los DDHH”, https://desalineados.com/2021/01/combate-a-la-corrupcion-un-reto-desde-la-perspectiva-de-ddhh/1018/

^[12] “Encuesta local en Ecuador muestra a Andrés Arauz como favorito”, https://www.telesurtv.net/news/define-intencion-voto-casi–mitad-ecuatorianos-20210122-0014.html

^[13] “Injerencia estadunidense en los comicios ecuatorianos”, https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2021/01/30/politica/injerencia-estadunidense-en-los-comicios-ecuatorianos/?s=09

^[14] “Opinión: Ecuador y la tradición latinoamericana de votar por el mal menor”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/es/post-opinion/2021/01/18/ecuador-elecciones-2021-candidatos-miedo/

^[15] Union por la Esperanza https://twitter.com/UNESECUADOR/status/1355570489373184001?s=20

^[16] “IMF Executive Board Approves 27-month US$6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility for Ecuador”, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/10/01/pr20302-ecuador-imf-executive-board-approves-27-month-extended-fund-facility

^[17] “Ecuador’s Lasso said he would not disavow IMF deal if elected”, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ecuadors-lasso-said-he-would-not-disavow-imf-deal-if-elected-2021-01-27 and “¿Cumplirá el acuerdo firmado con el FMI? Aquí las respuestas de los 16 candidatos a la Presidencia de Ecuador”,

https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2021/01/24/nota/9600538/elecciones-presidenciales-ecuador-2021-acuerdo-fmi-propuestas

^[18] “Biden needs to reverse Trump’s economic policy in Ecuador”, https://thehill.com/opinion/international/535838-biden-needs-to-reverse-trumps-crony-capitalism-in-ecuador

^[19] “US Rescue of Ecuador from Chinese Debt is a Trap”, https://newcoldwar.org/us-rescue-of-ecuador-from-chinese-debt-is-a-trap/

^[20] “La defensoría del Pueblo de Ecuador sitúa en una decena los muertos durante las protestas”, https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-defensoria-pueblo-ecuador-situa-decena-muertos-protestas-20191029020538.html

^[21] “Bodies are being left in the streets in an overwhelmed Ecuadorian city”, https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/guayaquil-ecuador-overwhelmed-coronavirus-intl/index.html

^[22] “Ecuador: Lawmakers Dismiss Health Minister Zevallos”, https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ecuador-Lawmakers-Dismiss-Health-Minister-Zevallos—20210127-0015.html

^[23] “Clinic injects 70,000 people with fake COVID-19 vaccine in Ecuador”, https://inshorts.com/en/news/clinic-injects-70000-people-with-fake-covid19-vaccine-in-ecuador-1611895118563

^[24] “Horrifying moment TV presenter, 36, who has previously received death threats for reporting on corruption, is assassinated during a drive-by-shooting in Ecuador”, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9198501/TV-presenter-36-received-death-threats-reporting-corruption-assassinated-Ecuador.html

^[25] Worldometers, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ecuador/

COHA Webinar: Ecuadorian Presidential Elections and the comeback of the Citizens’ Revolution

With Ricardo Patiño, former Foreign Affairs Minister of president Rafael Correa (2010 to 2016).

Join COHA to analyze the decisive presidential election taking place this February 7 in Ecuador. 

COHA Senior Research Fellows Alina Duarte and Professor Danny Shaw will interview Ricardo Patiño about the national and regional social, economic, and political implications of the presidential election in Ecuador. 

On February 7, Ecuadoreans will choose between the increasingly unpopular neoliberal path forged by President Lenin Moreno since his surprise pivot to the right in 2017, and a resumption of the Citizens’ Revolution, which had advanced social investment and economic growth under former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017). While under Moreno, Quito has withdrawn from efforts at regional integration, presidential candidate Andrés Arauz (Union of Hope, UNES)  has promised to restore Ecuador’s role in UNASUR, ALBA and CELAC. There is, therefore, a great deal at stake for both Ecuador and the entire region.

Join COHA to analyze the decisive presidential election taking place this February 7 in Ecuador. 

Friday February 5, 2021

8pm EST |  5pm PST

ZOOM Registration: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_msbqrIbDS8qdiJ-gSr0qww

The event will be streamed also through Facebook Live