The natural world is close to the heart of Britain’s new King Charles III. For decades, he has campaigned on environmental issues such as sustainability, climate change and conservation – often championing causes well before they were mainstream concerns.

In fact, Charles was this week hailed as “possibly most significant environmentalist in history”.

Upon his elevation to the throne, the new king is expected to be less outspoken on environmental issues. But his advocacy work have helped create a momentum that will continue regardless.

As Prince of Wales, Charles regularly met scientists and other experts to learn more about environmental research in Britain and abroad. Here, two Australian researchers recall encounters with the new monarch that left an indelible impression.

🐑🌾The Duke of Cornwall, Patron of the Soil Association, marked the 10th anniversary of the Innovative Farmers programme and learned more about how it’s helping farmers adopt more sustainable practices. pic.twitter.com/vvBrse5MRg

— Clarence House (@ClarenceHouse) July 19, 2022

Nerilie Abram, Australian National University
In 2008, I was a climate scientist working on ice cores at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge. On one memorable day, Prince Charles visited the facility — and I was tasked with giving him a tour.

At the time, I had just returned from James Ross Island, near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. There, at one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, I had helped collect a 364-metre-long ice core.

Ice cores are cylinders of ice drilled out of an ice sheet or glacier. They’re an exceptional record of past climate. In particular, they contain small bubbles of air trapped in the ice over thousands of years, telling us the past concentration of atmospheric gases.

We started the tour by showing Prince Charles a video of how we collect ice cores. We then ventured into the -20℃ freezer and held a slice of ice core up to the lights to see the tiny, trapped bubbles of ancient atmosphere.

Outside the freezer, we listened to the popping noises as the ice melted and the bubbles of ancient air were released into the atmosphere of the lab.

Holding a piece of Antarctic ice is a profound experience. With a bit of imagination, you can cast your mind back to what was happening in human history when the air inside was last circulating.

Prince Charles embraced this idea during the tour, making a connection back to the British monarch that would have been on the throne at the time.

All this led into a discussion about climate change. Ice cores show us the natural rhythm of Earth’s climate, and the unprecedented magnitude and speed of the changes humans are now causing.

At the time of the 2008 visit, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere had reached 385 parts per million — around 100 parts per million higher than before the Industrial Revolution. Today we are at 417 parts per million, and still rising each year.

In 2017, Prince Charles co-authored a book on climate change. It includes a section on ice cores, featuring the same carbon dioxide data I showed him a decade earlier.

Last year, the royal urged Australia’s then Prime Minister Scott Morrison to attend the COP26 climate summit at Glasgow, warning of a “catastrophic” impact to the planet if the talks did not lead to rapid action.

And in March this year, the prince sent a message of support to people devastated by floods in Queensland and New South Wales, and said:

“Climate change is not just about rising temperatures. It is also about the increased frequency and intensity of dangerous weather events, once considered rare.”

As prince, Charles used his position to highlight the urgency of climate change action. His efforts have helped to bring those messages to many: from young children to business people and world leaders.

He may no longer speak as loudly on these issues as king. But his legacy will continue to drive the climate action our planet needs.

Peter Newman, Curtin University
In the 1970s, being an environmentalist was lonely work. It meant years of standing up for something that people thought was a bit marginal. But even back then Prince Charles — now King Charles III — was an environmental hero, advocating on what we needed to do.

I met the Prince of Wales in 2015. He and Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall, visited Perth on the last leg of their Australia tour. I was among a group of Order of Australia recipients asked to meet the prince at Government House. I spoke to him about my lifelong passion – sustainability, including regenerative agriculture.

I knew earlier in their trip, Charles had toured the orchard at Oranje Tractor Wine, an organic and sustainable wine producer on Western Australia’s south coast. The vineyard is run by my friend Murray Gomm and his partner, Pam Lincoln, and I had encouraged them over the years. They had started winning awards, and it became even more special when the prince came down and blessed it!

The Oranje Tractor is now a net-zero-emissions venture: the carbon dioxide it sucks up from the atmosphere and into the soil is well above that emitted from its operations.

Charles’ eyes really lit up when I mentioned the Oranje Tractor. He was trying to do similar things in his gardening and at his farms – avoiding pesticides and sucking carbon from the atmosphere back into the soil.

Charles has that same knack the Queen had — an extraordinary ability to really listen and engage. To meet him, and see he’s been involved in sustainability as long as I have, it was validating and inspirational.

Now he is king, Charles will be a little more constrained in his comments about environment issues. But I don’t think you can change who you are. He will just be more subtle about how he goes about it.

Climate change is now at the forefront of the global agenda. But the world needs to accelerate its emissions reduction commitments. If we don’t move fast enough, King Charles will no doubt raise a royal eyebrow — and that’s enough.

Nicole Hasham, energy + environment editor, The Conversation. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Australia is experiencing widespread, rapid climate change not seen for thousands of years and may warm by 4℃ or more this century, according to the highly anticipated report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The assessment, released on Monday, also warns of unprecedented increases in climate extremes such as bushfires, floods and drought. But it says deep, rapid emissions cuts could spare Australia, and the world, from the most severe warming and associated harms.

The report is the sixth produced by the IPCC since it was founded in 1988 and provides more regional information than any previous version.

This gives us a clearer picture of how climate change will play out in Australia specifically.

It confirms the effects of human-caused climate change have well and truly arrived in Australia. This includes in the region of the East Australia Current, where the ocean is warming at a rate more than four times the global average.

We are climate scientists with expertise across historical climate change, climate projections, climate impacts and the carbon budget. We have been part of the international effort to produce the IPCC report over the past three years.

The report finds even under a moderate emissions scenario, the global effects of climate change will worsen significantly over the coming years and decades.

Every fraction of a degree of global warming increases the likelihood and severity of many extremes. That means every effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions matters.

Australia is, without question, warming
Australia has warmed by about 1.4℃ since 1910. The IPCC assessment concludes the extent of warming in both Australia and globally are impossible to explain without accounting for the extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities.

The report introduces the concept of Climate Impact-Drivers (CIDs): 30 climate averages, extremes and events that create climate impacts. These include heat, cold, drought and flood.

The report confirms global warming is driving a significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extremely hot temperatures in Australia, as well as a decrease in almost all cold extremes. The IPCC noted with high confidence that recent extreme heat events in Australia were made more likely or more severe due to human influence.

These events include:

The IPCC report notes very high confidence in further warming and heat extremes through the 21st century –- the extent of which depends on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

If global average warming is limited to 1.5℃ this century, Australia would warm to between 1.4℃ to 1.8℃. If global average warming reaches 4℃ this century, Australia would warm to between 3.9℃ and 4.8℃ .

The IPCC says as the planet warms, future heatwaves in Australia – and globally – will be hotter and last longer. Conversely, cold extremes will be both less intense and frequent.

Hotter temperatures, combined with reduced rainfall, will make parts of Australia more arid. A drying climate can lead to reduced river flows, drier soils, mass tree deaths, crop damage, bushfires and drought.

The southwest of Western Australia remains a globally notable hotspot for drying attributable to human influence. The IPCC says this drying is projected to continue as emissions rise and the climate warms. In southern and eastern Australia, drying in winter and spring is also likely to continue. This phenomenon is depicted in the graphic below.

Climate extremes on the rise
Heat and drying are not the only climate extremes set to hit Australia in the coming decades. The report also notes:

• observed and projected increases in Australia’s dangerous fire weather
• a projected increase in heavy and extreme rainfall in most places in Australia, particularly in the north
• a projected increase in river flood risk almost everywhere in Australia.

Under a warmer climate, extreme rainfall in a single hour or day can become more intense or more frequent, even in areas where the average rainfall declines.

For the first time, the IPCC report provides regional projections of coastal hazards due to sea level rise, changing coastal storms and coastal erosion – changes highly relevant to beach-loving Australia.

This century, for example, sandy shorelines in places such as eastern Australia are projected to retreat by more than 100 metres, under moderate or high emissions pathways.

Hotter, more acidic oceans
The IPCC report says globally, climate change means oceans are becoming more acidic and losing oxygen. Ocean currents are becoming more variable and salinity patterns — the parts of the ocean that are saltiest and less salty — are changing.

It also means sea levels are rising and the oceans are becoming warmer. This is leading to an increase in marine heatwaves such as those which have contributed to mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in recent decades.

Notably, the region of the East Australia Current which runs south along the continent’s east coast is warming at a rate more than four times the global average.

The phenomenon is playing out in all regions with so-called “western boundary currents” – fast, narrow ocean currents found in all major ocean gyres. This pronounced warming is affecting marine ecosystems and aquaculture and is projected to continue.

Where to from here?
Like all regions of the world, Australia is already feeling the effects of a changing climate.

The IPCC confirms there is no going back from some changes in the climate system. However, the consequences can be slowed, and some effects stopped, through strong, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions.

And now is the time to start adapting to climate change at a large scale, through serious planning and on-ground action.

To find out more about how climate change will affect Australia, the latest IPCC report includes an Interactive Atlas. Use it to explore past trends and future projections for different emissions scenarios, and for the world at different levels of global warming.

Click here to read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the IPCC report

By Dr Michael Grose, climate projections scientist, CSIRO; Dr Joelle Gergis, senior lecturer in climate science, Australian National University; Dr Pep Canadell, chief research scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and executive director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO, and Dr Roshanka Ranasinghe, professor of climate change impacts and coastal risk. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By Megan Darby, deputy editor of Climate Home News

China launched an “international green development coalition” last week, in the face of growing concern about its coal investments.

The Environment Ministry hosted an event on the “green belt and road” as part of a leaders’ summit in Beijing to promote Chinese investment in partner countries.

According to the official progress report on President Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign policy: “The Belt and Road Initiative pursues the vision of green development and a way of life and work that is green, low-carbon, circular and sustainable.

READ MORE: Climate Weekly: Activists hold London landmarks

“The initiative is committed to strengthening cooperation on environmental protection and defusing environmental risks.”

However, China’s energy investments abroad – it is a major investment and aid donor in the Pacific – continue to favour coal, threatening to blow the global carbon budget.

More than 30 heads of state were due at the summit, including from countries with shared coal, oil and gas interests such as Russia, Indonesia and Pakistan.

In a press conference before travelling to join them, UN chief Antonio Guterres said greening the initiative was important to meeting international climate goals.

“We need a lot of investments in sustainable development, in renewable energy, and a lot of investments in infrastructure that respect the future,” he said, as reported by Xinhua.

Test for China
The test is whether China will require its belt and road projects to meet international standards, in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change, said Greenpeace China climate analyst Li Shuo.

“China is certainly becoming more conscious about the criticisms around president Xi’s diplomatic initiative, particularly the environmental impacts of some of the Chinese projects,” said Li.

“Now comes the hard part – will any substantive progress be made at the policy level?”

China is financing 102 gigawatts of coal power capacity outside the country, 26 percent of the total under development, according to green think tank the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

It has become the “lender of last resort” for projects Western banks deem too risky.

Investment in renewables grew in 2018, US-based campaign group NDRC noted, but was still dwarfed by support for fossil fuels.

“There is a huge potential for renewable energy in these partner countries, but then they don’t have great policy set-ups for renewables,” NRDC energy policy expert Han Chen said.

Indonesian coal plants
In a commentary for the Jakarta Globe, campaigner Pius Ginting criticised the Indonesian government for seeking investment in four coal power plants instead of cleaner hydroelectric projects.

An opinion poll of six key emerging economies commissioned by UK-based thinktank E3G found a strong preference for renewables over fossil fuels. In Pakistan, 61 percent of respondents said renewable energy was a better investment for development in the long term, rising to 89 percent in Vietnam.

In these and Turkey, Indonesia, South Africa and the Philippines, solar power was seen as top priority. Coal had some positive associations, most strongly in Pakistan, where 41 percent said it created jobs, but in the rest of the countries polled these were outweighed by pollution concerns.

Republished under a Creative Commons licence.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

China is currently building more coal plants than it needs and in doing so is misallocating capital at an unprecedented rate.

As of July 2016, China had 895 GW of existing coal capacity being used less than half of the time – and perversely has 205 GW under construction and another 405 GW of capacity planned, with a total overnight capital cost of half a trillion US dollars.

This misallocation of capital is a microcosm of wider structural woes within the Chinese economy. China’s rapid economic growth, demographic profile and geographical size has meant it often made sense for the government to build power infrastructure first and ask questions later.

The days when China could grow at a fast pace by accumulating capital, safe in the knowledge that this capital would achieve high returns, appear to be over.

China’s coal power investments have reached an important juncture: keep pouring capital into increasingly unviable projects and put the financial system under additional pressure from the risk of large-scale defaults, or stop investing and promote efficiency.

As power demand growth slows from a historical average of 10 percent to 3 percent or less per year, the coal capacity in the pipeline, as well as some existing coal capacity, risks becoming stranded due to low carbon capacity targets, ongoing reforms in the power sector and carbon pricing.

A new report, Chasing the Dragon? China’s coal capacity crisis and what it means for investors, presents analysis which finds China no longer needs to build any additional coal plants and therefore it makes sense to act with conviction to contain its coal overcapacity crisis.

To prove this, Carbon Tracker Initiative developed a short-term scenario analysing the 2020 targets in the 13th five-year plan (13 FYP) and a long-term scenario analysing the implications of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2°C.

Carbon Tracker Initiative also develop a 2020 reform scenario which models the potential impact of power market reforms and a national emission trading scheme (ETS) on the gross profitability of each operating coal plant in China.

Investors who fail to understand the immediacy of China’s energy transition could find themselves chasing fossil fuel demand that is not there.

13th five-year plan doesn’t add up for coal generation
Low carbon capacity targets in the 13 FYP coupled with a low power demand environment will likely strand coal capacity. Additional capacity beyond existing plants is only required by 2020 if power generation growth exceeds 4% per year and coal plants are run at a capacity factor of 45% or less. If plants under construction are built and existing capacity are run at a 45% capacity factor, then 210 GW of coal capacity is unneeded in 2020 in an environment where power generation growth is 3% per year. Indeed, even in the most optimistic scenario (i.e. sub 45% capacity factor and above 5% power generation growth) there would still be a surplus if capacity under construction is built and operated alongside existing capacity.

Half a trillion US dollars of wasted capital could be avoided
To remain consistent with the IEA’s 2°C scenario (2DS) China can avoid building any new coal plants from now until 2032 by marginally increasing the utilization of their existing fleet. After 2032, the existing fleet becomes inconsistent with the 2DS due to rapidly declining capacity factors and therefore units will need to be progressively retrofitted with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or retired prematurely.

Since China can rely on its existing units to generate the power allocated to unabated coal plants in the 2DS, all units currently under construction and planned are not needed and pose a significant financial risk. Based on a capital cost of US$800 million per kW, US$490 billion of capital could be wasted on plants under construction and planned.

2°C carbon budget bust in 2030s without further policy reform
If no new coal plants are built and each existing unit is retired when it turns 40 years old, the 2°C carbon budget will still be exhausted by 2040. After 2040, coal capacity would need to emit no carbon to remain consistent with the 2°C budget. This is currently technically impossible as existing CCS-equipped coal plants still emit around 100 grams of carbon per kWh. If under construction capacity is built alongside existing capacity with a 40-year lifetime, the 2°C budget will be exhausted by 2036.

Given it would not be practical to phase-out a large amount of generation in a single year, the transition away from coal will obviously require retirements before this date. It is important to note that this scenario analysis uses a capacity factor of 50% and is based on a 50% chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2°C.
he following factors will both reduce the 2°C budget and consume it more quickly: (i) holding temperate rise to well below 2°C as described in the Paris Agreement; (ii) a higher probability of limiting temperature rise; and (iii) a higher capacity factor.

Reforms on the rise
Whether through an economic, air quality or climate lens, the Chinese government has every reason to contain its coal overcapacity crisis. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other government institutions are aware of the overcapacity crisis and the need for policy interventions to return coal generation investments to equilibrium.

The reforms from the government have increased in frequency and severity in 2016. A policy proposal was released in April to halt the construction of 372 GW of planned capacity – greater than the entire US coal fleet. Even plants under construction are not safe: more recently, the NDRC made the decision to halt 17 GW already under construction, setting a legal precedent that will likely be repeated in the future.

Power market reforms, in combination with the national ETS, could strand coal units with higher operating costs by promoting least cost units and low carbon generation.

Carbon Tracker Initiative developed a 2020 reform scenario to illustrate the impact of a national ETS and power market reforms.

Incorporating a carbon price of $US10/tCO₂ to reflect the introduction of a national ETS in 2017 and a 15 percent reduction in coal power tariffs from ongoing power market reforms, the gross profitability of the operating fleet halves by 2020, with 27 GW becoming cash flow negative and 140 GW making a gross profit of US$5 per MWh or less.

The NDRC put – China to become a net exporter of coal again
The Chinese government are like the central bank of the seaborne coal market. The stellar gains in thermal coal prices this year are entirely a result of China’s NDRC. It’s becoming harder to see how these gains can be sustained.

The NDRC has intervened to supress prices by relaxing its production cuts. By restarting mothballed capacity seaborne investors are actively challenging the effectiveness of Chinese policy.

If history is any guide, betting against the efficaciousness of Chinese policy is not sensible. With China acting as the marginal buyer on the seaborne coal market, investors should prepare themselves for a world where China is a net exporter.

Given the expected coal generation levels by 2020 under the 13 FYP, Carbon Tracker Initiative expects thermal coal demand to be lower than 2015 levels. Even if Chinese domestic supply is curtailed somewhat during this period, it could still result in China no longer being a net importer.

The technology race
The bilateral agreements between China and the US administrations to make efforts to reduce emissions to prevent dangerous levels of climate change sent several signals. One key section related to how both of the world’s largest economies would be investing in the technologies to deliver a low carbon future.

Clearly there are huge opportunities to export the solutions for the companies that win the race.

Questions have been raised as to whether the US will still be in the race under its incoming President – hopefully the economic opportunities and energy independence offered by new energy technologies will make them attractive to the new administration.

Regardless, we believe China will keep racing forward either way for all the reasons outlined above.

Conclusion
The basic maths of continued growth in China’s coal capacity does not add up, and the 13 FYP marks the point where this cannot be ignored any longer. The changing generation mix, the slowdown in power generation growth and existing coal plant overcapacity combine to present a different challenge for China.

With coal generation set to peak, there is no need for further coal capacity, whilst on the supply side, there is the potential for China to become a net exporter of coal again.

Chasing the Dragon? report