COMMENTARY: By Tess Newton Cain

Vanuatu’s devastating earthquake and dramatic political developments in Tonga and New Caledonia at the end of 2024 set the tone for the coming year in the Pacific.

The incoming Trump administration adds another level of uncertainty, ranging from the geostrategic competition with China and the region’s resulting militarisation through to the U.S. response to climate change.

And decolonisation for a number of territories in the Pacific will remain in focus as the region’s largest country celebrates its 50th anniversary of independence.

The deadly 7.3 earthquake that struck Port Vila on December 17 has left Vanuatu reeling. As the country moves from response to recovery, the full impacts of the damage will come to light.

The economic hit will be significant, with some businesses announcing that they will not open until well into the New Year or later.

Amid the physical carnage there’s Vanuatu’s political turmoil, with a snap general election triggered in November before the disaster struck to go ahead on January 16.

On Christmas Eve a new prime minister was elected in Tonga. ‘Aisake Valu Eke is a veteran politician, who has previously served as Minister of Finance. He succeeded Siaosi Sovaleni who resigned suddenly after a prolonged period of tension between his office and the Tongan royal family.

Eke takes the reins as Tonga heads towards national elections, due before the end of November. He will likely want to keep things stable and low key between now and then.

Fall of New Caledonia government
In Kanaky New Caledonia, the resignation of the Calédonie Ensemble party — also on Christmas Eve — led to the fall of the French territory’s government.

After last year’s violence and civil disorder – that crippled the economy but stopped a controversial electoral reform — the political turmoil jeopardises about US$77 million (75 million euro) of a US$237 million recovery funding package from France.

In addition, and given the fall of the Barnier government in Paris, attempts to reach a workable political settlement in New Caledonia are likely to be severely hampered, including any further movement to secure independence.

In France’s other Pacific territory, the government of French Polynesia is expected to step up its campaign for decolonisation from the European power.

Possibly the biggest party in the Pacific in 2025 will be the 50th anniversary of Papua New Guinea’s independence from Australia, accompanied hopefully by some reflection and action about the country’s future.

Eagerly awaited also will be the data from the country’s flawed census last year, due for release on the same day — September 16. But the celebrations will also serve as a reminder of unfinished self-determination business, with its Autonomous Region of Bougainville preparing for their independence declaration in the next two years.

The shadow of geopolitics looms large in the Pacific islands region. There is no reason to think that will change this year.

Trump administration unkowns
A significant unknown is how the incoming Trump administration will alter policy and funding settings, if at all. The current (re)engagement by the US in the region started with Trump during his first incumbency. His 2019 meeting with the then leaders of the compact states — Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Republic of Marshall Islands — at the White House was a pivotal moment.

Under Biden, billions of dollars have been committed to “securitise” the region in response to China. This year, we expect to see US marines start to transfer in numbers from Okinawa to Guam.

However, given Trump’s history and rhetoric when it comes to climate change, there is some concern about how reliable an ally the US will be when it comes to this vital security challenge for the region.

The last time Trump entered the White House, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement and he is widely expected to do the same again this time around.

In addition to polls in Tonga and Vanuatu, elections will be held in the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, New Caledonia and for the Autonomous Bougainville Government.

There will also be a federal election in Australia, the biggest aid donor in the Pacific, and a change in government will almost certainly have impacts in the region.

Given the sway that the national security community has on both sides of Australian politics, the centrality of Pacific engagement to foreign policy, particularly in response to China, is unlikely to change.

Likely climate policy change
How that manifests could look quite different under a conservative Liberal/National party government. The most likely change is in climate policy, including an avowed commitment to invest in nuclear power.

A refusal to shift away from fossil fuels or commit to enhanced finance for adaptation by a new administration could reignite tensions within the Pacific Islands Forum that have, to some extent, been quietened under Labor’s Albanese government.

Who is in government could also impact on the bid to host COP31 in 2026, with a decision between candidates Turkey and Australia not due until June, after the poll.

Pacific leaders and advocates face a systemic challenge regarding climate change. With the rise in conflict and geopolitical competition, the global focus on the climate crisis has weakened. The prevailing sense of disappointment over COP29 last year is likely to continue as partners’ engagement becomes increasingly securitised.

A major global event for this year is the Oceans Summit which will be held in Nice, France, in June. This is a critical forum for Pacific countries to take their climate diplomacy to a new level and attack the problem at its core.

In 2023, the G20 countries were responsible for 76 percent of global emissions. By capitalising on the geopolitical moment, the Pacific could nudge the key players to greater ambition.

Several G20 countries are seeking to expand and deepen their influence in the region alongside the five largest emitters — China, US, India, Russia, and Japan — all of which have strategic interests in the Pacific.

Given the increasingly transactional nature of Pacific engagement, 2025 should present an opportunity for Pacific governments to leverage their geostrategic capital in ways that will address human security for their peoples.

Dr Tess Newton Cain is a principal consultant at Sustineo P/L and adjunct associate professor at the Griffith Asia Institute. She is a former lecturer at the University of the South Pacific and has over 25 years of experience working in the Pacific islands region. The views expressed here are hers, not those of BenarNews/RFA. Republished from BenarNews with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

In all of the meandering years in the life of Papua New Guinea, 2021, which ended on Friday has to be it.

The colours were there, the love and laughter were there, the sadness, emotions, losses, highs and lows, the bleakness of our long-suffering population and blackness of ethereal poor governance were all intertwined with making 2021 standout.

In a nutshell, 2021 will be remembered as the year that shook PNG to the core.

The biggest and most enduring life changer was covid-19. Like a thief in the night, it descended on our lives. It robbed our children of their innocence. It stopped our businesses dead in their tracks. It stole our bread. It stole the breath of our nation builders.

This year, we will still be waking, walking and wandering with covid-19. It was and is the most tumultuous health issue ever, hovering over the gardener in a remote valley to a bush driver in a town to a business executive in the city.

Big or small, rich or poor, we all face the same anxiety.

Covid-19 was on everyone’s lips and in everyone’s ears. It is a global event that is still unraveling and we cannot predict what it holds for us in 2022.

The Kumul will fly
Now you can’t go anywhere without a face mask. But we must rise to the occasion. We must be resilient like our forefathers. We must face it. The Kumul will fly.

So many of our fathers and forefathers left us over the past year. Men, who walked and talked with giants, whose dreams and aspirations – covid-19 or not – we must carry in our hearts and move forward. That is the challenge that awaits our bones in 2022.

Sir Mekere Morauata (2020), Sir Pita Lus, Sir Philip Bouraga, Sir Paulias Matane, Sir Ramon Thurecht, Sir Ronald Tovue and the Chief of Chiefs, GC Sir Michael Thomas Somare.

One could only wonder as we wandered, tearfully from “haus krai” to the next mourning house. Why?

In one swoop, 2021 took our history book and shook the knights of our realm out of its pages.

Men whose colourful and storied existence led to the birth of our nation. How said indeed it is that a country loses its foundation so suddenly. Shaken to the core.

While mainland PNG mourned the loss of Sir Mekere, Kerema MP Richard Mendani, Middle Fly MP Roy Biyama and recently Middle Ramu MP Johnny Alonk, Bougainville was not spared.

The island is reeling from losing its Regional MP Joe Lera and just two weeks ago, Central Bougainville MP Sam Akoitai. Our leadership shaken to the core!

Historic year for PNG
This is also a historic year for PNG. Sixty-four years after Sir Michael shook his fist at Australia and demanded: “Let my people go,” Bougainville has done the same, voting overwhelmingly to secede from PNG in a referendum.

Two weeks ago, its president declared: “Let my people go!” Shaken to the core!

Ethnic violence — 1000 tribes in distress with violence becoming an everyday happening, Tari vs Kerema, Kange vs Apo, Kaimo vs Igiri, Goi vs Tari, threatening the very fabric of our unity. Our knights in their freshly dug tombs would be turning in their graves.

Family and Sexual Violence against women and children and the ugly head of sorcery related violence.

I mean, how dare we call ourselves a Christian nation and tolerate such evil? How dare you men accuse our women, mothers, sisters and daughters, and murder them in cold blood?

What more can we, as a newspaper say? We have spent copious amounts of sheet and ink, more than enough on these issues, we have raised our anger, we have commiserated with those in power about these issues. The message is not getting through to the men of this nation. Where have all the good men gone?

Spectre of ‘pirate’ Tommy Baker
Law and order wise, the name Tommy Baker raises the spectre of piracy, armed robbery, shootouts with law enforcement and a million kina manhunt that has failed to corner Baker.

Until he was shot dead by police, the self-styled pirate was still out there in Milne Bay, hiding, abiding in time, waiting to strike again.

The Nankina cult group on the Rai Coast and its murderous rampage also shocks us, as a reminder of the Black Jisas uprising gone wrong, two decades before.

Add the consistent and constant power blackouts in the major cities and towns. This is hardly a sign of progress, especially when the management of the major power company PNG Pawa Ltd has been changed three times!

However, yes, we need to remember this too. In our topsy turvy perennial spin, some of the major positive developments need to be mentioned.

The giant Porgera Mine was shut down and promised to be reopened, Ok Tedi, Kumul, BSP and IRC all handed the government a gold card standard in millions of kina dividends.

And the government has signed for a gold refinery in PNG for the first time.

22 billion kina budget
The passing of a 22 billion kina (about NZ$9.2 billion) budget. That is, in the finest words of my best friend Lousy, preposterous. Never before has the budget being built around such a humongous money plan.

Spending is easy but raising it sounds very challenging. Therein lies the challenge.

The most important part is to ensure this money plan reaches the unreached, that service delivery will go where the ballot boxes, somehow manage to reach on election days.

One noticeable explosion of knowledge is the awareness of social communications platforms. For better or worse, Facebook has taken a stranglehold of the lives of ordinary Papua New Guineans.

Communication around the country has changed overnight at the touch of a button or dial of a mobile phone.

In sport – the heart of the nation missed a beat when star Justin Olam was overlooked in the Dally M awards. A major uproar in PNG and popularly support down under forced the organisers to realign the stars. Justin easily pocked the Dally M Centre of the Year.

The good book the Holy Bible, says there is a season for everything. Maybe we are in a judgement season, being tried and tested and refined. Only we can come out of that judgement refined and define the course of our country – from Land of the Unexpected to the Land of the Respected!

We will remember the 365 days of you, as the jingle fiddles our imagination, we were “all shook up!”

Patrick Levo is a senior PNG Post-Courier journalist. Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz