While Australians may be focused on the havoc the Delta variant is wreaking on our shores, Delta is in fact driving waves of covid infections all around the world.

With the World Health Organisation (WHO) warning Delta will rapidly become the dominant strain, let’s take a look at this variant in a global context.

The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) emerged quietly in the Indian state of Maharashtra in October 2020. It barely caused a ripple at a time when India was reporting around 40,000 to 80,000 cases a day, most being the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) first found in the United Kingdom.

That changed in April when India experienced a massive wave of infections peaking at close to 400,000 daily cases in mid-May. The Delta variant rapidly emerged as the dominant strain in India.

The WHO designated Delta as a variant of concern on May 11, making it the fourth such variant.

The Delta variant rapidly spread around the world and has been identified in at least 98 countries to date. It’s now the dominant strain in countries as diverse as the UK, Russia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and Fiji.

And it’s on the rise.

In the United States, Delta made up one in five covid cases in the two weeks up to June 19, compared to just 2.8 percent in the two weeks up to May 22.

Meanwhile, the most recent Public Health England weekly update reported an increase of 35,204 Delta cases since the previous week. More than 90 percent of sequenced cases were the Delta variant.

In just two months, Delta has replaced Alpha as the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. The increase is primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of whom are unvaccinated.

2 key mutations
Scientists have identified more than 20 mutations in the Delta variant, but two may be crucial in helping it transmit more effectively than earlier strains. This is why early reports from India called it a “double mutant”.

The first is the L452R mutation, which is also found in the Epsilon variant, designated by the WHO as a variant of interest. This mutation increases the spike protein’s ability to bind to human cells, thereby increasing its infectiousness.

Preliminary studies also suggest this mutation may aid the virus in evading the neutralising antibodies produced by both vaccines and previous infection.

The second is a novel T478K mutation. This mutation is located in the region of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein which interacts with the human ACE2 receptor, which facilitates viral entry into lung cells.

The recently described Delta Plus variant carries the K417N mutation too. This mutation is also found in the Beta variant, against which covid vaccines may be less effective.

One good thing about the Delta variant is the fact researchers can rapidly track it because its genome contains a marker the previously dominant Alpha variant lacks.

This marker — known as the “S gene target” — can be seen in the results of PCR tests used to detect covid-19. So researchers can use positive S-target hits as a proxy to quickly map the spread of Delta, without needing to sequence samples fully.

Why is Delta a worry?
The most feared consequences of any variant of concern relate to infectiousness, severity of disease, and immunity conferred by previous infection and vaccines.

WHO estimates Delta is 55 percent more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which was itself around 50 percent more transmissible than the original Wuhan virus.

That translates to Delta’s effective reproductive rate (the number of people on average a person with the virus will infect, in the absence of controls such as vaccination) being five or higher. This compares to two to three for the original strain.

There has been some speculation the Delta variant reduces the so-called “serial interval”; the period of time between an index case being infected and their household contacts testing positive. However, in a pre-print study (a study which hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed), researchers in Singapore found the serial interval of household transmission was no shorter for Delta than for previous strains.

One study from Scotland, where the Delta variant is predominating, found Delta cases led to 85 percent higher hospital admissions than other strains. Most of these cases, however, were unvaccinated.

The same study found two doses of Pfizer offered 92 percent protection against symptomatic infection for Alpha and 79 percent for Delta. Protection from the AstraZeneca vaccine was substantial but reduced: 73 percent for Alpha versus 60 percent for Delta.

A study by Public Health England found a single dose of either vaccine was only 33 percent effective against symptomatic disease compared to 50 percent against the Alpha variant. So having a second dose is extremely important.

In a pre-print article, Moderna revealed their mRNA vaccine protected against Delta infection, although the antibody response was reduced compared to the original strain. This may affect how long immunity lasts.

A global challenge to controlling the pandemic
The Delta variant is more transmissible, probably causes more severe disease, and current vaccines don’t work as well against it.

WHO warns low-income countries are most vulnerable to Delta as their vaccination rates are so low. New cases in Africa increased by 33 percent over the week to June 29, with covid-19 deaths jumping 42 percent.

There has never been a time when accelerating the vaccine rollout across the world has been as urgent as it is now.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Gebreyesus has warned that in addition to vaccination, public health measures such as strong surveillance, isolation and clinical care remain key. Further, tackling the Delta variant will require continued mask use, physical distancing and keeping indoor areas well ventilated.

Dr Michael Toole is professor of international health at the Burnet Institute. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By Dr Crispin Maslog in Manila

As fake news on Covid-19 spreads faster than the virus, scientists call for a halt to the “infodemic”.

As China admits that the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) is now the worst public health crisis that the country has faced since its founding, a group of scientists has sent out a piercing appeal for sobriety in media coverage of the epidemic.

The scientists in a statement published on February 19 in one of the world’s leading science journals, Lancet, appealed for support for the scientists, public health professionals and medical professionals.

VIEW: The coronavirus world map

“We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and wellbeing.

“We have watched as the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China, in particular, have worked diligently and effectively to rapidly identify the pathogen behind this outbreak, put in place significant measures to reduce its impact, and share their results transparently with the global health community.

“This effort has been remarkable,” the scientists said in a formal statement which they asked the public to endorse and sign.

Fighting the ‘infodemic’
This appeal cannot be timelier. It comes at a time when the coronavirus “infodemic” is overshadowing the coronavirus epidemic itself.

I had started to worry when my driver asked me the other day if it is true that China’s government officials are killing people who are sick of the coronavirus there just to get rid of the virus.

I proceeded to interrogate him on where he got the information and scolded him, saying this is fake news. But what really got me worried was when no less than a senator of the Philippines played back in a public hearing in February in the halls of Philippine Congress a conspiracy theory video that claimed the coronavirus to be a form of “bio-warfare” developed by the US against China.

Vicente Sotto, whose claim to fame before he was elected senator was as a broadcast personality, alleged his office had received the video anonymously and found it was “somehow very interesting, if not revealing”. The theory has been debunked by experts.

What happened next was just as interesting. Instead of first asking the opinion of the health experts present, Senator Sotto turned to Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin for his comments. Locsin, a veteran journalist and publisher, immediately rejected the theory as the “craziest video”.

But it was also crazy that Senator Sotto did not immediately ask for the opinions of the health officials present at the Senate hearing, particularly Health Secretary Francisco Duque III or WHO country representative Rabindra Abeyasinghe. It seems that Senator Sotto was looking for sensational angles rather than scientific opinions and who better to ask than a journalist?

This is a tendency to which most of us in the public are now inclined as we read and talk about the origins, nature and spread of Covid-19.

As of March 10, barely two months after the confirmation of the first case of corona virus (31 December 2019), in Wuhan, China, there were at least 67,773 confirmed cases in the mainland China province of Hubei, bringing the world total to more than 118,745, with the death toll at 4284. Major outbreaks have also developed in Iran, Italy – with a quarantine of its population of more than 60 million – and South Korea with thousands of confirmed cases and multiple deaths.

How to protect yourself against Covid-19. Video: World Health Organisation

Reprise Sars and Merscov
This Covid-19 epidemic that started in China and now threatens to be a worldwide pandemic brings to mind two epidemics in our lifetime — Sars and Merscov.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) was a viral respiratory illness that was recognised as a global threat in March 2003, after first appearing in southern China in November 2002.

It reached Singapore on February 25  and I had personal experience coping with public hysteria for months until the high-quality Singapore medical system and responsible media licked the virus three months later in May.

A total of 238 probable Sars cases were reported in Singapore between March and May 2003, 33 of whom died. The first case was on February 25 while the last case was 5 May 5.

Although away from my family as a visiting professor in Singapore, I overcame my initial jitters and later felt safe enough to go out to the market, take the bus to my office and make occasional forays downtown. It did cramp my social life, however.

The crucial thing to remember is to be informed, collected and aggressive in combating false information.

Pandemic in digital age
What makes Covid-19 different from Sars and Merscov, however, is not only its initial size but the milieu into which it was born. Covid-19 is now at a stage when it is likely going to be declared a pandemic and described with many others — thanks to social media.

When Sars and Merscov were infecting people, the younger generation were only beginning to surf the internet and use the original cell phone. Social media was still an infant.

But now, a WHO official warns that false news was “spreading faster than the virus”. Claims are made that the virus is spread by eating bat soup or could be cured by garlic. A WHO official has met officials of tech companies at Facebook’s headquarters in Mountain View, California, including those from Google, Apple, Airbnb, Lyft, Uber and Sales force.

Earlier he held talks with Amazon at the e-commerce giant’s headquarters in Seattle.

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus was labelled a public health emergency, books on the disease have popped up on the e-retailer. And when users search for the word coronavirus on Amazon, listings for face masks and vitamin C pop up.

Vitamin C has been listed as one of the fake cures for coronavirus.

In response, Facebook on February 27 announced that it was banning ads that “create a sense of urgency” about Covid-19 or suggest cures or preventive measures” and “will remove posts that contain false information about the virus”.

Most likely unintended, but in the foreseeable future we may have to fight the coronavirus on two fronts — the viral epidemic and the informational epidemic fronts.

Rather than be passive recipients of news, we have to become critical and push back on all information that sounds “crazy” and “conspiratorial”. The educated class should take the lead in doing this.

Schools should be involved and introduce courses on media information literacy, starting with identifying fake news especially in relation to science and health.

This is quite a challenge to both the medical scientists and the communication scientists. May both groups of scientists win.

Dr Crispin C. Maslog, a former journalist with Agence France-Presse, is an environmental activist and former science professor at Silliman University and the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines. He is a founding member and now chair of the board of the Asian Media Information and Communication Centre (AMIC), Manila. This article was produced by SciDev.Net’s Asia & Pacific desk.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By RNZ News

A man has died of the Wuhan coronavirus outside China, and any foreign travellers who leave from or transit through China will be refused entry to New Zealand from tomorrow.

A 44-year-old Chinese man from the city of Wuhan, where the new coronavirus was first detected, died today in hospital in the Philippines, the country’s Department of Health has said.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has confirmed it is the first death from the virus outside China.

READ MORE: NZ evacuees from Wuhan to be quarantined at Whangaparaoa

The New Zealand government announced at a press conference this afternoon that strict travel restrictions have been introduced in response to the outbreak.

Any foreign travellers on their way to New Zealand when the announcement was made will be subject to increased screening on arrival. If they are cleared, they will be allowed into the country.

New Zealand citizens and permanent residents, and their immediate family, will be allowed to enter the country but will need to isolate themselves for 14 days after arrival.

The Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Trade has also raised its travel advice for China to “Do not travel”, the highest level.

Public health advice
“Cabinet convened last night to discuss the most up-to-date public health advice, and recent developments in the spread of the virus,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said.

“We have been advised by health officials that while there are still a range of unknowns in the way the virus is being transmitted, we should take a precautionary approach and temporarily stop travel into New Zealand from mainland China, and of people who have recently been in China.”

She said the measures were critically important to protect New Zealanders, and to play a part in global efforts to contain the virus.

“I am particularly mindful that we are a gateway to the Pacific, and must factor that into our decision making,” Ardern said.

The US and Australia are among other countries who had earlier announced similar restrictions.

“We have been in close contact with our partners in the past 24 hours, and I have spoken on multiple occasions with [Australian] Prime Minister Morrison to ensure we are each aware of any changes to our systems, and the wider impacts given the frequent travel between our two nations,” Ardern said.

“The decision of the US to put in place similar restrictions to those decided by Cabinet has had a knock on effect in terms of travel, leading Air New Zealand and other airlines to stop their flights from China.”

Shanghai route suspended
Air New Zealand has announced it will suspend its Auckland Shanghai route from today until March 29.

Its service departing Shanghai Pudong International Airport shortly after 2pm local time will be the airline’s final flight on this route for two months. Tonight’s Auckland-Shanghai service is cancelled.

Air New Zealand said the suspension was brought forward following the increased border restrictions.

Ministers will be working with industry leaders to try to lessen economic effects of the restrictions, including on tourism, education and the primary sector, Ardern said.

This article is republished under the Pacific Media Centre’s content partnership with Radio New Zealand.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Video report by RNZ Pacific.

RNZ Pacific’s Jamie Tahana reports

In the Pacific, where several countries are already dealing with epidemics, some countries have taken extreme measures to try and halt the spread of the new coronavirus.

While authorities say the risk of an outbreak remains low, little is being left to chance – especially in measles-devastated Samoa.

This video and article are republished under the Pacific Media Centre’s content partnership with Radio New Zealand.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Rappler editorial

It’s not the virus. It’s not the Chinese flying into the Philippines. Our biggest enemy amid the Wuhan crisis is panic.

Here’s the situation: a new strain of the coronavirus has caused an outbreak in the city of Wuhan in central China. It has so far killed 106 people and infected more than 4500.

While the entire province of Hubei is on lockdown, the virus has nevertheless been transmitted by infected humans to at least 12 other countries.

READ MORE: Coronavirus update: NZ to team up with Australia to get citizens out of Wuhan

The Philippines is awaiting confirmation if the virus has reached its shores.

So far, the only case acknowledged by the Department of Health (DOH) to be under observation is a five-year-old boy from Wuhan who was isolated in a hospital in Cebu City starting January 12, and has since been discharged.

While the boy has exhibited flu-like symptoms, there’s no certainty yet that what he has is the newly-discovered 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV), also called the Wuhan virus. It could be any of the 7 known coronaviruses. Health authorities are awaiting the results of lab tests done on the boy’s samples in Australia.

The Bureau of Immigration has tracked down the family of four whose father, after traveling from Wuhan to Hong Kong, has been found to be “preliminary positive” with the virus. Leaving the patient in HK, the family boarded a Cebu Pacific flight to Manila on January 22.

Monitoring movements
The Justice Department says it is monitoring the movements of that family, and “may refer them to Bureau of Quarantine” (BOQ). The airline urged the passengers of that flight 5J 111 to get themselves checked.

On Monday morning, January 27, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said in a Malacañang briefing that the DOH was investigating 11 possible nCov cases in 6 regions in the country, but reiterated that there is no confirmed case yet.

Without any confirmation from health authorities, the rest of the supposed cases we’ve been reading about on social media are speculations or outright misinformation.

Understandably, Filipinos are worried. The 2019 nCov, which can infect a person’s airways, has symptoms similar to the deadly SARS-CoV of 17 years ago, and can be transferred from human to human. And while scientists have yet to understand the new virus’ life cycle, how exactly it’s transmitted, and whether it is going to mutate, there is no approved vaccine or treatment yet for the coronavirus infection.

As of January 28, DOH says there is still no confirmed case of the 2019 nCov in the Philippines

But we should caution ourselves against letting this worry spiral into panic. Because panic can blur our judgment. It makes us vulnerable to wrong information or speculation or conspiracy theories. It makes us discriminate against any person “who looks Chinese” and is wearing a mask, or is in the vicinity of a hospital.

It makes us question the specialists in the health department when they don’t seem to be as worried as we are. We nag our local governments to do drastic things that are outside the protocols established by the DOH.

Push for total ban
We’ve heard of Chinese-looking individuals not being allowed to enter the emergency room of a hospital – a nurse had to talk to them outside, and then they were turned away. In one city, we heard that some journalists were among those pushing the mayor to declare a total ban on Chinese tourists.

Some have made racist remarks about what the Chinese in the mainland eat.

Let’s go back to what authorities say we know about the Wuhan virus, and stick to that.

Arnaud Fontanet, head of the department of epidemiology at Institut Pasteur in Paris, says the 2019 nCov, in its current form, appears to be “weaker” than SARS. It’s too early to say whether the virus is going to mutate or not.

Rabindra Abeyasinghe, the country representative to the Philippines of the World Health Organisation (WHO), said as of January 21 that it was “too early to say this is a severe disease.” So far, those who have died had pre-existing illnesses, while not all of them had a history of getting in contact with the wet market in Wuhan where wild animals being sold were suspected to have been the source of the virus.

‘Basis for testing’
Through the WHO, China’s health ministry is expected to provide the Philippines and other countries a DNA sample of the 2019 nCoV. This “will serve as the basis for our own testing and treatment” via the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, says Secretary Duque.

Duque says the Philippines’ “detection capability is still evolving,” but this should not be a handicap. Thanks to the internet, scientists from universities, research centers, and even private companies across the globe are collaborating online to study the Wuhan virus so China and other countries can all respond to it appropriately.

So far, the Philippines has suspended all direct flights to and from Wuhan, and has put its Bureau of Quarantine at the airports on high alert.

The DOH assures the public that it is ready in case the Wuhan virus reaches the Philippines, and this confidence stems from the fact that, since the 2003 SARS crisis, protocols on monitoring and testing are in place, and surveillance units are in place in the regions, cascading information and instructions down to the barangays.

Our part – as citizens, as local governments – is to take heed.

An editorial published today by the leading independent Philippines online news website.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By RNZ News

The unexpected death of a person in New Zealand who recently travelled to China is being investigated for coronavirus, but a local district health board says virus is unlikely the cause.

The novel coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, has infected 2800 people and killed at least 80 in China. The outbreak is believed to have emerged late last year from illegally traded wildlife at an animal market in Wuhan, Hubei province.

A small number of cases linked to people who travelled from Wuhan have been confirmed in more than 10 countries, including Australia, Thailand, France, Japan and the United States where authorities said they had 110 people under investigation in 26 states.

READ MORE: RNZ global updates on coronavirus

In a statement, Bay of Plenty’s District Health Board said investigations were common in unexpected deaths, but it was unlikely this person had been infected with the novel coronavirus.

Dr Neil de Wet, medical officer of health at Toi Te Ora Public Health, said they were undertaking this measure to rule out the virus as a cause, because the person had recently travelled to China.

There are no cases of the novel coronavirus in New Zealand to date.

Health advice is also being provided to travellers arriving to New Zealand from China.

The DHB said travellers who became sick within a month of their arrival were encouraged to seek medical advice and contact Healthline (for free) on 0800 611 116 or a doctor.

It said people should also mention any recent travel to China and any known contact with someone with severe respiratory illness who has been in China.

Reports of a suspected case in Queenstown earlier today turned out to be a false alarm.

This article is published under the Pacific Media Centre’s content partnership with Radio New Zealand.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By RNZ News

New Zealand health authorities are following up reports of a person with coronavirus in the southern New Zealand tourism city of Queenstown.

The novel coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, has infected 2800 people and killed at least 80 in China. The outbreak is believed to have emerged late last year from illegally traded wildlife at an animal market in Wuhan, Hubei.

A small number of cases linked to people who travelled from Wuhan have been confirmed in more than 10 countries, including Australia, Thailand, France, Japan and the United States where authorities said they had 110 people under investigation in 26 states.

READ MORE: RNZ global updates on coronavirus

Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield told RNZ Morning Report that local health authorities were following up reports of a person with coronavirus in Queenstown.

The Ministry of Health had heard “through the grapevine” about the case but there was no confirmation.

Dr Bloomfield said a throat swab could be taken and sent to Melbourne for testing if deemed necessary by health professionals.

‘Well-developed protocol’
“We’ve got a really well-developed protocol and case definition for anyone who may be a possible or suspected case … so any clinician or public health unit staff member who is checking someone to see if they may be a case will be following that protocol.”

He said any results from samples sent to Australia could be expected within days.

“We’re using the lab there at the moment and working towards being able to do the test onshore here later this week.”

He said there was no confirmation either on whether the person was a tourist but they had been staying at a hotel.

The Rees Hotel in Queenstown posted to its Facebook page saying it had received rumours that there was an outbreak of coronavirus at the hotel.

“Please note that these rumours are unfounded and untrue as there has been no outbreak of the virus in New Zealand,” the Facebook message said.

This article is published under the Pacific Media Centre’s content partnership with Radio New Zealand.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By RNZ News

The first Australian case of Wuhan coronavirus has been confirmed, with a man being held under isolation in a Melbourne hospital.

News of the case came after Chinese authorities said they were treating 1287 patients with the virus, while the death toll has risen to 41.

The Melbourne patient is a Chinese man in his 50s who recently spent time in the city of Wuhan, where the deadly outbreak is believed to have originated in an illegal wildlife market.

He is in a stable condition.

READ MORE: Background on coronavirus – The Lancet

New South Wales Health has confirmed five people in the state are being tested for coronavirus, but none of those cases have been confirmed.

Two people were discharged after returning negative test results in NSW yesterday. A child on an incoming flight prompted a scare at Sydney International airport last night, but Sydney Children’s Hospital says the child was assessed and then released.

European cases
Europe’s first three cases were confirmed in France on Friday, with two patients being hospitalised in Paris and the other in the south-western city of Bordeaux.

On the eve of the Lunar New Year, transportation has been shut down in at least 13 Chinese cities with a combined population of some 36 million people.

At least eight hospitals in Wuhan issued public calls for donations of masks, goggles, gowns and other protective medical gear, according to notices online.

China’s government announced it was sending in military medics to Wuhan.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared the new coronavirus an “emergency in China” but stopped short of declaring it of international concern.

Symptoms include fever, difficulty breathing and coughing. Most of the fatalities have been elderly people, many with pre-existing conditions, the WHO said.

Thailand has confirmed four cases, Japan, South Korea and the United States have confirmed two cases each, while Taiwan and Singapore have reported one each.

Indian nurse
Indian authorities say an Indian nurse working in Saudi Arabia has also been infected, but Saudi health authorities say there has been no cases in the country so far.

Airports worldwide are screening passengers arriving from China, with the US warning travellers to exercise increased caution in China.

Hong Kong, which has two confirmed cases, is turning two holiday camps into quarantine stations as a precaution. Taiwan has banned anyone from Wuhan from going to the island.

Meanwhile, the Australian Federal government has raised travel advice for the provinces of Wuhan and Hubei in China to the highest level, due to the threat posed by the coronavirus.

The level four warning urges Australians not to travel to the region.

Foreign Minister Marise Payne said Chinese authorities had restricted travel in at least five Hubei cities and Australians going there may not be able to leave until restrictions are lifted.

Travellers are being warned that the level of assistance the government can provide is limited.

This article is published under the Pacific Media Centre’s content partnership with Radio New Zealand.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz