Fiji’s weather office predicts that up to seven tropical cyclones may affect several Pacific countries in the coming cyclone season — and up to four of them may be severe.

In its 2022/2023 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook, the Fiji government predicted that the region would experience less than the annual average cyclone activity.

Fiji’s National Disaster and Management Minister Jone Usamate announced there would be between five and seven tropical cyclones and that three or four of them may be severe.

The minister said at least two of those cyclones were likely to pass through Fiji during the cyclone season which runs from early November to the end of April.

The Fiji Meteorological Service also serves as the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) and functions as the weather watch office for the region from southern Kiribati to Tuvalu, Fiji, Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna and New Caledonia.

It also provides forecast services for aviators in an area that includes Christmas Island (Line Islands), Tokelau, Samoa, Niue and Tonga.

“On average seven cyclones affect the RSMC Nadi region every cyclone season. Thus, our 2022-2023 cyclone season is predicted to have an average to below average number of cyclones,” Usamate said.

“On average, three severe tropical cyclones affect the RSMC Nadi region every season, therefore the 2022-2023 tropical cyclone season is predicted to have an average to below average number of severe cyclones. For severe cyclones which are category three or above, we anticipate one to four severe tropical cyclones this season.”

Early warning
However, the minister sounded an early warning for extensive flooding which is typical of La Niña which may continue to affect the region to the end of 2022.

The RSMC outlook said: “This season’s TC (tropical cyclone) outlook is greatly driven by the return of a third consecutive La Niña event, which is quite exceptional and the event is likely to persist until the end of 2022.”

Additionally, the RSMC warns countries in its area of responsibility of the possibility of out-of-season cyclones.

The peak tropical cyclone season in the RMSC-Nadi region is usually during January and February.

“While the tropical cyclone season is between November and April, occasionally cyclones have formed in the region in October and May and rarely in September and June. Therefore, an out-of-season tropical cyclone activity cannot be totally ruled out,” the RSMC said.

“With the current La Nina event and increasing chances of above average rainfall, there are also chances of coastal inundation to be experienced. All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2022/23 TC Season and please do take heed of any TC warnings and advisories, to mitigate the impact on life and properties.”

According to Usamate, Fiji Police statistics show that 17 Fijians have died from drowning in flooding which occurred between 2017 and the most recent cyclone season.

“The rainfall prediction for the duration of the second season is above average rainfall. That means we should expect more rain in the next six months.

“As you all know, severe rainfall leads to flooding and increasing the possibility of hazards such as landslides. In Fiji, flooding alone continues to be one of the leading causes of death during any cycle event,” Usamate said.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Extensive damage to food crops across South Pacific atolls has followed three days of high spring tides in the region.

Reports into The Pacific Newsroom show the tides have afflicted Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands and the archipelago islands of Papua New Guinea.

Videos show extensive damage in villages as the tides sweep in.

Tide charts predict there will be another night of it tonight.

The phenomena is not directly related to global warming and sea level rise, but is an ominous pointer to what could happen.

Known as a perigean spring tide, it is influenced by the new Moon. The one underway now is the 11th and last for this year.

Why this one has proven so damaging in the Pacific is likely to be a result of the developing La Niña. Sea level rise could also be a factor. In places like the Marshall Islands winds were also helping create big swells.

Impact on Carteret Islands
One place dramatically affected this week are the Carteret Islands, part of PNG’s autonomous Bougainville region. Home to 2600 people, and already sinking due to a combination of seismic and global warming effects, it appears to have suffered extensive sea water contamination of its gardens.

Low lying areas around Malaita’s main town of Auki, in the Solomon Islands, suggest serious problems there.

Flooding in Auki, Malaita, Solomon Islands. Image: Tim Saki Misimake

Video shows extensive damage occurring on the islands in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia.

The Pacific Island Times quotes FSM President David W. Panuelo saying they are aware of what is happening.

“We are watching what’s happening,” he said in a statement. “I would ask our citizens to feel assured that their government is aware of what’s happening, and is ready to take action.”

Giff Johnson in the Marshall Islands said there was not so much damage but a big clean up was needed. They were expecting more tonight.

Majuro airport road flooded
Writing for the Mariana Variety he said at Majuro roads by Amata Kabua International Airport in Majuro were down to single lane traffic Monday afternoon as heavy equipment operators moved up and down the long roadway clearing rocks and debris that blocked the road from inrushing tidal water.

Waves washing over boulder barriers caused flooding on the roads half a meter deep before receding.

Aotearoa climate researcher Dr Murray Ford of Auckland University told Johnson he believed sea level rise was a major factor in this week’s events.

“An event like this would have been relatively innocuous in the 1990s, but sea level is notably higher today then back then. Sea level rise is increasing the frequency and magnitude of these sorts of events.”

Dr Ford said Monday’s inundation came during “the highest tide of the month at 2.14 metres.”

From Nauru, Formosa Emiu, wrote of being spooked by the ocean creeping up the backyard: “No sand or reef or rocky pinnacles seen, no noise or crashing waves, very calm, but very high sea level”.

Asia Pacific Report is a partner of The Pacific Newsroom. Republished with permission.

Climate change and the Carterets yesterday. Video: Bougainville Today

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz