French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s surprise announcement yesterday that he will call for a parliamentary confidence vote in his government is set to further complicate protracted talks in New Caledonia on the French territory’s political future.

The announcement comes as French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls has extended his stay in New Caledonia, where he has supervised a “drafting committee” to translate a “Bougival Accord” signed in July to set the path for major political reforms for New Caledonia.

In a surprise and “risky” announcement yesterday, Bayrou said a confidence vote in his government would take place on September 8.

He said this was in direct relation to his budget, which contains planned sweeping cuts of around 44 billion euros (NZ$87.6 billion) to tackle the “danger” of France plunging further into “over-indebtedness”.

“Yes it’s risky, but it’s even riskier not to do anything,” he told a press conference.

According to article 49.1 of the French Constitution, if a majority of parties votes in defiance, then Bayou and his minority government automatically fall.

Reacting to the announcement, parties ranging from far right, far left to the Greens have already indicated they would express defiance towards Bayrou and his cabinet.

‘End of the government’
Far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party chief Jordan Bardella said Bayrou, by calling for the vote, had effectively announced “the end of his government”.

Radical left France Unbowed (La France Insoumise) also said the vote would mark the end of the government.

This will place the Socialist MPs, whose votes could make the difference, in a crucial position.

Socialist party spokesman MP Arthur Delaporte, deplored Bayrou for remaining “deaf to the demands of the French” and appeared to remain “quite stubborn”.

“I don’t see how we could vote the confidence,” Delaporte told reporters.

To further compound the situation in France, a national “block everything” strike has been called on September 12, with the active support and backing from the far left parties and a number of trade unions.

Valls is still in New Caledonia, after he extended his stay twice and is now set to fly back to Paris later today.

Bid for FLNKS talks
The extension was an attempt to resume talks with the pro-independence FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front), which has attended none of the three sessions of the “drafting committee” on August 21, 23 and 35.

Talks within the committee were reported to be not only legal (with the help of a team of French high officials, including constitutionalists, but also highly political.

Valls announced a last-ditch session today with FLNKS before he flies back to Paris.

All of the other parties, both pro-independence and pro-France, took part in the committee sessions, which is now believed to have produced a Constitutional reform Bill that was to be tabled at both France’s Parliament chambers (the National Assembly and the Senate) and later before a special meeting of both houses (a “Congress”).

The Constitutional Bill would cover a large spectrum of issues, including the creation, for the first time in France, of a “State of New Caledonia”, as well as a dual France/New Caledonia citizenship.

Two other documents, an organic law and a fundamental law (a de facto constitution) are also being prepared for New Caledonia.

The Bougival deal signed on July 12 near Paris was initially agreed to by all of New Caledonia’s political parties represented at the local Parliament, the Congress.

Rejected ‘in block’
But it was later denounced and rejected “in block” by the FLNKS.

Valls has consistently stressed that his door “remains open” to the FLNKS.

Several local parties across the political chessboard (including the Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien and moderate pro-France Calédonie Ensemble) have already expressed doubts as to whether the implementation of the Bougival deal could carry any value if they had taken place without the FLNKS.

In the face of urgent initial plans to have New Caledonia’s texts urgently tabled before French Parliament, Bayrou’s confidence challenge is highly likely to further complicate New Caledonia’s political negotiations.

The plan was to have the freshly-produced text scrutinised by the French State Council, then approved by the French Cabinet on September 17.

Before the end of 2025, it would then be tabled before the French National Assembly, then the Senate, then the French special Congress sitting.

And before 28 February 2026, the same text would finally be put to the vote by way of a referendum for the people of New Caledonia.

Pro-France leader and former French cabinet member Sonia Backès however told local media she remained confident that even if the Bayrou government fell on September 8, “there would still be a continuity”.

“But if this was to be followed by a dissolution of Parliament (and snap elections), then, very clearly, this would impact on the whole (New Caledonian) process,” she said.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls, who is visiting New Caledonia this week for the third time in two months, has once again called on all parties to live up to their responsibilities in order to make a new political agreement possible.

Failing that, he said a potential civil war was looming.

“We’ll take our responsibilities, on our part, and we will put on the table a project that touches New Caledonia’s society, economic recovery, including nickel, and the future of the younger generation,” he told a panel of French journalists on Sunday.

He said that he hoped a revised version on a draft document — resulting from his previous visits in the French Pacific territory and new proposals from the French government — there existed a “difficult path” to possibly reconcile radically opposing views expressed so far from the pro-independence parties in New Caledonia and those who want the territory to remain part of France.

The target remains an agreement that would accommodate both “the right and aspiration to self-determination” and “the link with France”.

“If there is no agreement, then economic and political uncertainty can lead to a new disaster, to confrontation and to civil war,” he told reporters.

“That is why I have appealed several times to all political stakeholders, those for and against independence,” he warned.

“Everyone must take a step towards each other. An agreement is indispensable.”

Valls said this week he hoped everyone would “enter a real negotiations phase”.

He said one of the ways to achieve this will be to find “innovative” solutions and “a new way of looking at the future”.

This also included relevant amendments to the French Constitution.

Local parties will not sign any agreement ‘at all costs’
Local parties are not so enthusiastic.

In fact, each camp remains on their guard, in an atmosphere of defiance.

And on both sides, they agree at least on one thing — they will not sign any agreement “at all costs”.

Just like has been the case since talks between Valls and local parties began earlier this year, the two main opposing camps remain adamant on their respective pre-conditions and sometimes demands.

The pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), largely dominated by the Union Calédonienne, held a convention at the weekend to decide on whether they would attend this week’s new round of talks with Valls.

They eventually resolved that they would attend, but have not yet decided to call this “negotiations”, only “discussions”.

They said another decision would be made this Thursday, May 1, after they had examined Valls’s new proposals and documents which the French minister is expected to circulate as soon as he hosts the first meeting tomorrow.

FLNKS reaffirms ‘Kanaky Agreement’ demand
During their weekend convention, the FLNKS reaffirmed their demands for a “Kanaky Agreement” to be signed not later than 24 September 2025, to be followed by a five-year transition period.

The official line was to “maintain the trajectory” to full sovereignty, including in terms of schedule.

On the pro-France side, the main pillar of their stance is the fact that three self-determination referendums have been held between 2018 and 2021, even though the third and last consultation was largely boycotted by the pro-independence camp.

All three referendums resulted in votes rejecting full sovereignty.

One of their most outspoken leaders, Les Loyalistes party and Southern Province President Sonia Backès, told a public rally last week that they had refused another date for yet another referendum.

“A new referendum would mean civil war. And we don’t want to fix the date for civil war. So we don’t want to fix the date for a new referendum,” she said.

However, Backès said they “still want to believe in an agreement”.

“We’re part of all discussions on seeking solutions in a constructive and creative spirit.”

Granting more provincial powers
One of their other proposals was to grant more powers to each of the three provinces of New Caledonia, including on tax collection matters.

“We don’t want differences along ethnic lines. We want the provinces to have more powers so that each of them is responsible for their respective society models.”

Under a draft text leaked last week, any new referendum could only be called by at least three-fifths of the Congress and would no longer pose a “binary” question on yes or no to independence, but would consider endorsing a “project” for New Caledonia’s future society.

Another prominent pro-France leader, MP Nicolas Metzdorf, repeated this weekend he and his supporters “remain mobilised to defend New Caledonia within France”.

“We will not budge,” Metzdorf said.

Despite Valls’s warnings, another scenario could be that New Caledonia’s political stakeholders find it more appealing or convenient to agree on no agreement at all, especially as New Caledonia’s crucial provincial elections are in the pipeline and scheduled for no later than November 30.

Concerns about security
But during the same interview, Valls repeated that he remained concerned that the situation on the ground remained “serious”.

“We are walking on a tightrope above embers”.

He said top of his concerns were New Caledonia’s economic and financial situation, the tense atmosphere, a resurgence in “racism, hatred” as well as a fast-deteriorating public health services situation or the rise in poverty caused by an increasing number of jobless.

“So yes, all these risks are there, and that is why it is everyone’s responsibility to find an agreement. And I will stay as long as needed and I will put all my energy so that an agreement takes place.

“Not for me, for them.”

Valls also recalled that since the riots broke out in May 2024, almost one year ago, French security and law enforcement agencies are still maintaining about 20 squads of French gendarmes (1500 personnel) in the territory.

This is on top of the normal deployment of 550 gendarmes and 680 police officers.

Valls said this was necessary because “any time, it could flare up again”.

Outgoing French High Commissioner Louis Le Franc said in an interview recently that in case of a “new May 13” situation, the pre-positioned forces could ensure law enforcement “for three or four days . . . until reinforcements arrive”.

If fresh violence erupts again, reinforcements could be sent again from mainland France and bring the total number to up to 6000 law enforcement personnel, a number similar to the level deployed in 2024 in the weeks following the riots that killed 14 and caused some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4.2 billion) in damage.

Carefully chosen words
Valls said earlier in April the main pillars of future negotiations were articulated around the themes of:

• “democracy and the rule of law”;
• a “decolonisation process”;
• the right to self-determination;
• a “fundamental law” that would seal New Caledonia’s future status;
• the powers of New Caledonia’s three provinces; and a future New Caledonia citizenship with the associated definition of who meets the requirements to vote at local elections.

Valls has already travelled to Nouméa twice this year — in February and March.

Since his last visit that ended on April 1, discussions have been maintained in conference mode between local political stakeholders and Valls, and his cabinet, as well as French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s special advisor on New Caledonia, constitutionalist Eric Thiers.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New Caledonia’s largest pro-independence party, the Union Calédonienne (UC), has unveiled the main outcome of its congress last weekend, including its plans for the French Pacific territory’s political future.

Speaking at a news conference on Thursday in Nouméa, the party’s newly-elected executive bureau, now headed by Emmanuel Tjibaou, debriefed the media about the main resolutions made during its congress.

One of the motions was specifically concerning a timeframe for New Caledonia’s road to independence.

Tjibaou said UC now envisaged that one of the milestones on this road to sovereignty would be the signing of a “Kanaky Agreement”, at the latest on 24 September 2025 — a highly symbolic date as this was the day of France’s annexation of New Caledonia in 1853.

‘Kanaky Agreement’ by 24 September 2025?
This, he said, would mark the beginning of a five-year “transition period” from “2025 to 2030” that would be concluded by New Caledonia becoming fully sovereign under a status yet to be defined.

Several wordings have recently been advanced by stakeholders from around the political spectrum.

Depending on the pro-independence and pro-France sympathies, these have varied from “shared sovereignty”, “independence in partnership”, “independence-association” and, more recently, from the also divided pro-France loyalists camp, an “internal federalism” (Le Rassemblement-LR party) or a “territorial federation” (Les Loyalistes).

Charismatic pro-independence leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou, Emmanuel’s father who was assassinated in 1989, was known for being an advocate of a relativist approach to the term “independence”, to which he usually preferred to adjunct the pragmatic term “inter-dependence”.

Negotiations between all political parties and the French State are expected to begin in the next few weeks.

The talks (between pro-independence, anti-independence parties and the French State) are scheduled in such a way that all parties manage to reach a comprehensive and inclusive political agreement no later than March 2025.

The talks had completely stalled after the pro-indeoendence riots broke out on 13 May 2024.

Over the past three years, following three referendums (2018, 2020, 2021, the latter being strongly challenged by the pro-independence side) on the question of independence (all yielding a majority in favour of New Caledonia remaining part of France), there had been several attempts to hold inclusive talks in order to discuss New Caledonia’s political future.

But UC and other parties (including pro-France and pro-independence) did not manage to sit at the same table.

Speaking to journalists, Emmanuel Tjibaou confirmed that under its new leadership, UC was now willing to return to the negotiating table.

He said “May 13 has stopped our advances in those exchanges” but “now is the time to build the road to full sovereignty”.

Back to the negotiating table
In the footsteps of those expected negotiations, heavy campaigning will follow to prepare for crucial provincial elections to be held no later than November 2025.

The five years of “transition” (2025-2030), would be used to transfer the remaining “regal” powers from France as well as putting in place “a political, financial and international” framework, accompanied by the French State, Tjibaou elaborated.

And after the transitional period, UC’s president said a new phase of talks could start to put in place what he terms “interdependence conventions on some of the ‘regal’ — main — powers” (defence, law and order, foreign affairs, currency).

Tjibaou said this project could resemble a sort of independence in partnership, a “shared sovereignty”, a concept that was strongly suggested early November 2024 by visiting French Senate President Gérard Larcher.

But Tjibaou said there was a difference in the sense that those discussions on sharing would only take place once all the powers have been transferred from France.

“You can only share sovereignty if you have obtained it first”, he told local media.

One of the other resolutions from its congress held last weekend in the small village of Mia (Canala) was to reiterate its call to liberate Christian Téin, appointed president of the FLNKS (Kanak Socialist National Liberation Front) in absentia late August, even though he is currently imprisoned in Mulhouse (north-east of France) pending his trial.

Allegations over May riots
He is alleged to have been involved in the organisation of the demonstrations that degenerated into the May 13 riots, arson, looting and a deadly toll of 13 people, several hundred injured and material damage estimated at some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$3.9 billion).

Tjibaou also said that within a currently divided pro-independence movement, he hoped that a reunification process and “clarification” would be possible with other components of FLNKS, namely the Progressist Union in Melanesia (UPM) and the Kanak Liberation Party (PALIKA).

Since August 2024, both UPM and PALIKA have de facto withdrawn with FLNKS’s political bureau, saying they no longer recognised themselves in the way the movement had radicalised.

In 1988, after half a decade of a quasi civil war, Jean-Marie Tjibaou signed the Matignon-Oudinot agreements with New Caledonia’s pro-France and anti-independence leader Jacques Lafleur.

The third signatory was the French State.

One year later, in 1989, Tjibaou was shot dead by a hard-line pro-independence militant.

His son Emmanuel was aged 13 at the time.

‘Common destiny’
In 1998, a new agreement, the Nouméa Accord, was signed, with a focus on increased autonomy, the notions of “common destiny” and a local “citizenship” and a gradual transfer of powers from France.

After the three referendums held between 2018 and 2021, the Nouméa Accord prescribed that if there had been three referendums rejecting independence, then political stakeholders should “meet to examine the situation thus generated”.

On Thursday, Union Calédonienne also stressed that the Nouméa Accord remained the founding document of all future political discussions.

“We are sticking to the Nouméa Accord because it is this document that brings us to the elements of accession to sovereignty”.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz