On the night of February 28, the Israel-US airstrike killed his father, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his wife, his brother-in-law and sister-in-law.

According to a recent report from Reuters, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei suffered life threatening injuries and apparently lost his leg and has a disfigured face.

The report said he communicated through written statements read by TV anchors and audio conferences with senior officials.

I don’t want to believe Reuters or any puppet media from the West but I would like to believe that the new supreme leader is not in full capacity as expected.

Well, despite all that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is still grounded, strong and with no signs of collapse.

They lost 40+ senior leaders but still fought two superpower countries to a ceasefire. They still control the Strait of Hormuz and have thousands of missiles and drones left.

This simply points out to the fact that IRGC is in control and guess who is the leader?

Led IRGC for decades
Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the martyred Ali Khamenei, who led IRGC for decades with a hand injury over a bomb explosion in a tape recorder in 1981.

Imagine you were Mojtaba who has just lost all your family to a brutal attack that claimed even more lives in your country.

In one way or another you survived and you have people taking instructions from you.

At this point I don’t think death scares you anymore because you saw death in its true colours and even had a conversation with it.

Back to myself, what if I was Mojtaba Khamenei? First, no surrender. I would fight to the last microsecond and die fighting but surrendering is where I draw the line.

Second, the Strait of Hormuz is non-negotiable. It is our territorial waters and remains under our control. We do with it what we want. It’s ours, period.

After all, it was open and safe for all until someone decided to attack us and now we call the shots. It’s either you agree with our terms of gerrarahia!

Two options on missiles
On our missile programme, two options. It’s either we maintain our missile programme or develop nukes.

We won’t sit here and be at the mercies of aggressive enemies like Israel and US with no options to protect ourselves.

It’s either we can nuke you or we can missile you one or both options. Imagine just being there and being limited to defensive missiles capabilities yet those asking you to do that are the same people attacking you during negotiations!

Uranium enrichment. Let everyone enrich uranium and use it however they want. It’s either everyone can or no one can’t. No selective privileges.

Lastly, if I was Mojtaba Khamenei, those who murdered my family would definitely pay, not by dollars, not by Shekel and of course not by propaganda but by blood.

What would you do, if you were Mojtaba Khamenei?

Bonface Chisutia is a Nairobi, Kenya, based writer and academic. This commentary is republished from his Facebook account.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

US President Donald Trump has been obsessed with seizing Iran’s Kharg Island for more than 35 years — way before he became a politician. In 1990, he wrote in an American newspaper that the United States should seize Kharg.

Trump thinks that by seizing Kharg, he would get hold of Iranian oil, which he has admitted he wants badly. Either he is deliberately misleading the world or he is not well informed.

Kharg is nothing more than a loading terminal. It is a small island, only about 90 sq km in size, some 28 km from the Iranian mainland.

It’s main advantage is that it is surrounded by very deep waters which allows what are known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to come alongside and load huge quantities of crude oil. A VLCC can easily load up to 2 million barrels of crude.

At today’s price of US$116 per barrel, the value of the cargo would exceed $232 million.

Kharg itself is not an oilfield. It does not produce crude. Every drop of oil which is stored in its many storage tanks are piped there from the mainland through underwater pipes.

All the Iranian oil fields are on the mainland. Now that the Iranians have known well in advance that Trump might seize the island, do you know what they will do? They will turn off the spigot.

No more oil flow
No more oil will flow from the mainland to the island. What oil there is stored in the tanks on the island would have been loaded onto vessels which would have departed Kharg.

I am willing to put a wager that if the Americans seize the island, they will not find any oil. Maybe there will be some residue left in the tanks but the amounts would be so miniscule that in law it would be known as de minimis.

Trump can seize the island and I am sure the Iranians will allow him to do so. But what will happen after that?

The marines and the paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division will be slaughtered by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). I pity the American mothers and wives who will be receiving the bodies of their sons and husbands.

Iranian missiles and drones will descend on the American troops like fire and brimstone. There is absolutely no way the Americans can hold the island. The Iranians know this and have dared the Americans to come because they know that it is an invitation to hell for the enemy.

The trouble with the Americans is hubris. They think the rest of the world can easily be walked over by their unbeatable marines and other elite troops.

Napoleon too thought that his Old Guards or Imperial Guards were invincible until they came up against the British Grenadier, Coldstream and Scots Guards at Waterloo. And for the first time ever in the Napoleonic Wars, the agonising cry from the French generals of “En arriere!“ meaning “backward” or “retreat” was heard in the ranks of this legendary unit.

Best trained, fanatical
When the Americans face the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, whether at Kharg or Hormuz, they will be coming up against some of the best trained and fanatical soldiers in the world, who are equipped to the hilt with modern weaponry.

All their generals are veterans of the bloody 8 year Iran-Iraq war. If there are soldiers who know what war is, it is the IRGC.

And to me it is the height of absurdity for the Americans to think that they can accomplish their missions with only about 17,000 ground troops.

I think the scale of the slaughter is going to be gut-wrenching and awful. It will be the modern day equivalent of the battle of Cannae where Hannibal destroyed the entire Roman army, killing 80,000 enemy soldiers in a single day and taking another 10,000 as prisoners.

In 1980, America was humiliated when their military helicopters floundered in the failed Operation Eagle Claw rescue mission to extract the embassy hostages. Nearly half a century later, I fear America will again be humiliated in Iran.

Lim Tean is a Singaporean lawyer, politician and commentator. He is the founder of the political party People’s Voice and a co-founder of the political alliance People’s Alliance for Reform.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Pacific Island governments are urging their citizens not to panic about the supply of fuels amid the conflict in the Middle East between Israel, the United States and Iran.

The conflict has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that carries around 20 percent of the world’s oil (20 million barrels a day), by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The IRGC has warned that any ship passing through the strait would be attacked, triggering a near-total halt in vessels attempting to pass through the waterway, causing a surge in oil prices.

However, according to Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the Strait of Hormuz is closed only to Iran’s “enemies and their allies”, the IRGC-aligned Tasnim News Agency reported.

US President Donald Trump has demanded that allies send naval vessels to the Middle East to help escort ships through the strait.

Pacific Islands nations get nearly all of their refined fuel from refineries in Singapore, South Korea and Japan. But roughly 80 percent of the crude oil used by these Asian refineries passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fiji government said on Monday that fuel supplies in the country were sufficient to meet energy needs for the next few months.

“There is no need to indulge in ‘panic buying’ at the service station,” it said in a statement.

Closely monitoring the war
It added that the government was closely monitoring the US-Israel war on Iran, and meeting with local suppliers who had already secured fuel supplies.

Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka and his cabinet were meeting today “to firm-up on the plan of action for the long-term, if there is no resolution to the conflict in the near future”.

Tonga’s government has also called on Tongans not to queue at petrol stations.

“There is no immediate need for concern or panic buying of fuel,” the Tonga Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.

“We are assured by the energy sector that there is sufficient fuel available for now.”

Samoa’s Prime Minister Laaulialemalietoa Leuatea Polataivao Schmidt said his government’s immediate priority was to ensure that the country had enough fuel supply to meet its needs.

“What is happening . . .  we can’t control, but we are working to ensure we have enough fuel for the next one or two years because we do not know what’s going to happen next,” La’auli said during a joint press conference with New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon yesterday.

Current stocks sufficient
Vanuatu’s government said it has engaged with Pacific Energy, Vanuatu’s primary fuel importer and supplier, to assess potential impacts on national fuel supply.

“Pacific Energy reports current stocks are sufficient to cover usual consumption, the company’s supply programme, based on a three-month rolling forecast, is secured, and no shortages are anticipated in the foreseeable future,” the Ministry of the Prime Minister in Vanuatu said in a statement.

In the Solomon Islands, the country’s central bank said that while the fuel prices at the petrol stations were currently stable, “the impact of the oil price shock is expected to be felt from April 2026 onwards”.

“Preliminary assessment indicates that sustained increases in global oil prices are likely to push up domestic fuel costs, thereby feeding into higher imported inflation and overall headline inflation,” the Central Bank of Solomon Islands said in a statement.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz