Epidemiologist Professor Rod Jackson is urging New Zealanders to take omicron seriously, and certainly not to think of it as similar to the flu.

The warning comes as new modelling shows omicron could peak by mid next month with about 4000 daily cases.

Professor Jackson, professor of epidemiology at Auckland University, told RNZ Morning Report there was “no doubt” New Zealanders were not taking omicron seriously.

“The standard thing I hear these days is, ‘Oh, this is just a mild condition, it’s like a mild flu’ — and it’s just not true,” he said.

“In the [United] States, for example, more people have died from omicron, than died from delta. It’s also worth noting that I mean if you ever had a bad flu, you feel like you want to die.

“It’s not a particularly good comparison. The flu kills 500 people a year. Normally that’s almost double the road crash death rate. It’s about the same as suicide, just a bit less.

“This is a serious disease that people need to take seriously.”

High omicron death rate
The high omicron death rate in the US was because the variant was so contagious, Dr Jackson said.

“It spreads like wildfire, and I guess that’s the other important issue when we’re thinking about the comparison between the flu and and Omicron is that the R value, the number of people that one infected person with the flu is going to infect, is less than two.

“With omicron, we don’t even know how big it is. It’s certainly much bigger than delta, which was about six (people infected per person), so this is a very different disease from the flu and we need to take it seriously.

“We need to go out and get maximally vaccinated.”

On that point, Dr Jackson said there were a likely a lot of reasons more people had not got a booster shot.

“One is, we’re all a little over it, aren’t we? Everyone is tired. Everyone wants to go back to normal.

“Secondly there is this general view is that I hear — ‘Oh, but isn’t omicron, you know, just like a cold?’

‘People die of this’
“For some people, it’s very mild. For some people it’s asymptomatic, but people die of this.

“Look at the hospital rates. Every New Zealander should have a look at the graph of the number of hospitalisations, and if you look at it in the last week or two, it’s going almost vertically.

“There’s a couple of things we really need to do – get maximally vaccinated and wear a good mask.”

Today the Ministry of Health confirmed 3297 new cases of covid-19 in the community in New Zealand, with 179 people in hospital with the coronavirus, including one in intensive care.

There were also eight new cases in managed isolation today.

Yesterday the Ministry of Health reported 2846 covid-19 cases in the community and 143 people in hospital with the virus.

There have now been 38,951  cases of covid-19 in New Zealand.

Police Commissioner Andrew Coster said that police staff working at the anti-mandate protest outside Parliament had contracted covid-19.

He said while they could not link transmission to the protest, with people coming far and wide for the demonstration, he would be surprised if there was no covid among protesters.

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The one million New Zealanders who are so far delaying getting their booster shots are the biggest concern of top covid-19 adviser Sir David Skegg.

Phase two of New Zealand’s Omicron response plan begins at 11.59pm tonight, as daily cases rocket toward the 1000 mark.

Sir David, who is chair of the Strategic Covid-19 Public Health Advisory Group, said Aotearoa is much more ready than any other country he can think of to face an omicron outbreak on a large scale.

The experience of other countries has shown New Zealand that the country cannot beat omicron in the way it beat the original virus and to a large extent Delta, he said.

“I see this as a strategic withdrawal. It has been carefully planned. It shows that omicron is now getting the upper hand.”

He praised public health officials for their “Rolls-Royce” contact tracing but said there was now no choice except to move to phase two.

However, his greatest concern is the numbers who are still to get their booster shot, he told RNZ Morning Report.

Two doses ‘not adequate’
“I’m amazed that there’s more than a million New Zealanders who are eligible for the booster dose who have not yet taken up that opportunity. This is crazy.

“I think it’s time we stopped talking about people being fully vaccinated if they’ve only had two doses.”

The virus had mutated, Sir David said, and omicron was better at evading the vaccine immunity.

“So two doses of the vaccine doesn’t give adequate protection.”

He urged all those eligible to make an appointment or get it done today.

“No point having it in a few weeks after you’ve become sick.”

He referred to Denmark which has a similar population to New Zealand and is sometimes held up as a covid-19 success story.

He pointed out that it had seen 4000 deaths and was still having around 27 people die daily whereas Aotearoa’s total death toll in two years was 53.

Challenges face the country
“The next few months are going to be very challenging for this country. We are going to experience something of what those other countries had, so I think we all need to fasten our seat belts.

“It’s not just health although many of us will become sick and a considerable number will die. It’s also going to affect business, it’s going to affect social life and it’s going to affect education. The best thing people we can do right now is get boosted.”

He said people were tired of the pandemic but now was not the time to be considering removing restrictions.

While there was some fragmentation on the best way to deal with covid-19, there was also a consensus that New Zealanders did not want to see large numbers of people get seriously ill or die.

He said as an older person he would be doing his best to avoid getting the virus. He would be restricting his contact with other people while trying to live as normal a life as possible.

Pragmatic managing of omicron
Te Pūnaha Matatini principal investigator Dr Dion O’Neale says phase two is a pragmatic way to manage the growing omicron outbreak.

He told Morning Report that the high numbers of the last couple of days were pulling the country back in line with what the modelling had been predicting for a while.

“So we’ve seen overseas and we’d expect to see in New Zealand doubling times every three days. So that’s your trend.

“On top of that there will be little ups and downs … from here they go up.”

Dr O’Neal said the country had been able to slow down the spread of omicron, due mainly to the work of contact tracers. Their efforts had “put the brakes on” a growth of cases.

However, once case numbers got high there was not enough capacity to contact trace for every case and the spread would speed up, leading to the inevitable decision to move to phase two.

New system more online focused
“It’s an acknowledgement that with these high case numbers systems and processes they won’t have the capacity to deal with the large numbers and we need to try and change how we respond to covid.”

Until now, the contact tracing system has been very personal with contact names identified and these people are then rung and given advice.

The new system will be more online focused, with a text message with a positive result sent, and then the person will be asked to fill in an online form and the information is passed on.

O’Neal said it would be important for people to pass on information on possible exposures as quickly as possible, not waiting for official processes which might be slower as systems became stretched.

“Go home and take your children” — that was New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s plea yesterday to protesters remaining at Parliament.

Despite being trespassed from Parliament grounds a week ago, protesters remain on the Parliament lawn and show no sign of leaving in spite of a new record 981 community covid-19 cases yesterday.

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Police say misinformation and a “range of different causes and motivations” are making it difficult to resolve the situation with protesters at New Zealand’s Parliament.

In a statement this afternoon, Wellington District Commander Superintendent Corrie Parnell said police were continuing to monitor the protest activity at Parliament grounds as new community cases of covid-19 in the current omicron outbreak reached a record 446.

“Police have identified a range of different causes and motivations among the protesters, making it difficult to open clear and meaningful lines of communication.

“Misinformation, particularly on social media, has been identified as an issue.”

Superintendent Parnell said some of the protesters were “actively promoting false advice” about people’s rights and the powers that police have.

“For example, the use of a particular word or phrase by an individual will not impact the arrest of anyone involved in unlawful activity,” he said.

“Under the Policing Act 2008, anyone arrested and taken into police custody is required to provide their name, age, date of birth and address. They must also let police take their photograph and fingerprints.

“It is an offence not to comply with these requests.”

Superintendent Parnell did note that several officers were seen carrying batons earlier today, but that was not in line with the current approach and they have now been removed.

“Police continue to explore options to resolve the disruption to local businesses and allow free and safe movement around the city.”

RNZ Checkpoint reports

Police detail response to the protest outside Parliament. Video: RNZ News

10 million covid-19 vaccinations in NZ
The government is celebrating a milestone of 10 million covid-19 vaccines administered.

In a statement this afternoon, Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said the uptake of vaccines had been helped by a surge in boosters, and a healthy uptake of paediatric doses in 5- to 11-year-olds.

He said the 10 millionth vaccine had been reached about 2pm today.

“It’s the people of New Zealand who have embraced the science and put their trust in the health system who deserve the biggest accolade. They should take a bow, and then take a breath and continue to encourage others to get vaccinated,” he said.

“A strong booster uptake in all our communities is our best defence against the omicron variant. Being fully vaccinated is great, being boosted is even better.”

The record 446 new cases of covid-19 recorded in the community today followed another record of 306 the previous day.

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New Zealand has recorded its highest number of community cases in one day, with 243 new cases reported today.

The previous highest number of cases reported in one day was 222 during the delta outbreak in November.

In a statement, the Health Ministry said the continued increase in cases today was “a reminder that, as expected, the omicron variant is spreading in our communities as we have seen in other countries”.

The ministry said getting a booster dose as soon as it was due was one of the best steps to take.

“Boosters lower your chances of getting very sick and being hospitalised. Being boosted also helps slow the spread of the virus. If you’re over 18 and your booster is due, please get it now.”

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today’s record numbers were expected and would continue to grow in the coming days and weeks

“I urge people not to panic but to plan for that,” he said.

‘Get your booster’
“The best thing you can do to prevent illness is to get vaccinated, and get your booster. Wear a mask when you’re around others, cough into your elbow and wash your hands regularly.”

It was a record day for boosters yesterday, with 66,864 booster doses given. There were also 876 first doses, 1780 second doses and 4440 paediatric doses given.

There are 10 people in hospital with covid-19, including one in ICU. Two are in Rotorua and one in Christchurch, with the rest in Auckland hospitals.

Today’s new community cases were in Northland (21), Auckland (165), Waikato (34), Rotorua (1), Bay of Plenty (8), Tairāwhiti (2), Hawke’s Bay (6), Nelson/Marlborough (3), Whanganui (1), and Wellington (2).

The 21 new cases in Northland include 14 cases in Kerikeri, two cases in Kaeo, one case in Kaikohe, three cases in Whangārei, and one case in Taipa Bay-Mangōnui.

Less than half of the 34 cases in Waikato today are linked to previously reported cases. Nineteen of the cases are in Hamilton, five in Ohaupo, two in Te Kuiti, two in Ngāruawāhia, one in Tirau, and the remaining with locations under investigation.

Both of the Wellington cases are under investigation for links to previous cases, but a JetStar flight between Wellington and Auckland on January 29 has been added as a location of interest. More details are available on the ministry’s location of interest page.

There were also 26 cases reported at the border today, with travellers arriving from Singapore, Australia, UK, India, Egypt, Lebanon, UAE and Ireland.

There were 209 community cases reported yesterday, along with a further 64 cases at the border.

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New Zealand is shortening the gap between second and third doses of the covid-19 vaccine from four months to three, the government has announced.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins and Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield made the announcement this afternoon.

Ardern said Cabinet made the decision on the advice of the Vaccine Technical Advisory Group, and it would mean a million more New Zealanders would be eligible for their booster shot.

The shorter interval, which only applies to the Pfizer vaccine, will take effect on Friday,  February 4.

“It now means a total of 3,063,823 people aged 18 and over — two thirds of our population — will be eligible for their booster from this weekend. Over 1.3 million people have already got theirs,” Hipkins said.

The change would mean more people, especially Māori, would be able to receive a booster before omicron took hold, he said, urging anyone who was eligible to get their booster as soon as possible.

Ardern said an extra 100,000 Māori will be eligible for a booster, representing a 59 percent increase in Māori eligibility from Friday, while an additional 52,000 Pacific people will be eligible, representing a 47 percent increase.

Ardern said the reason for getting the booster was clear — Omicron was usually more mild, but it could be severe for some.

“So don’t think getting a booster is just about keeping yourself safe, it’s about ensuring our hospital and health system is not overwhelmed so those you love and everyone in our community who needs our hospitals can get the care they need,” she said.

Watch the government announcement:

Today’s media conference.Video: RNZ News

Hipkins said New Zealand was one of the top-10 most vaccinated countries in the OECD, and the earlier booster would also help reduce the impacts of omicron on workforces and supply chains.

“We have given ourselves a head start that we cannot afford to give up,” he said.

People can check their eligibility on MyCovidRecord, by referring to their vaccine appointment card, or calling 0800 28 29 26 between 8am and 8pm seven days a week.

Ardern said today that 94 percent of New Zealanders over the age of 12 were fully vaccinated.

“A year ago, achieving that level of community immunity would have been considered incredibly ambitious, but the overwhelming majority of the team of five million have done what they’ve done best this entire pandemic, banded together and turned out to get vaccinated not just for themselves but to keep their loved ones and communities safe.”

The high rates had helped stop a delta outbreak and given New Zealand a head start against omicron, but now the number boosted needed to get as high as possible, she said.

The government would create a big booster campaign during February, with details to be provided by the Ministry of Health next week, Ardern said.

Significant boost in funding
Dr Bloomfield acknowledged the work put in by vaccination teams across the country in achieving 94 percent vaccination. Māori vaccination rates were now up to 90 percent first dose and 85 percent second dose, he said.

Ardern said there had been a significant boost in funding for community organisations which was helping support the efforts to help vaccinate Māori around the country.

“What we’ve had to do is make sure that we’ve stood up a system that worked for delta, now we need to make sure that we are able to expand to deal with what will be a larger number of cases but actually the majority of cases won’t need the level of care that delta may have required. So that has been an ongoing programme of work with our Māori providers,” she said.

Dr Bloomfield said the impact of waning protection over time from the vaccine had been seen.

“The good news is that there is clear evidence with that booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine, that people’s protection goes back up to a similar level to what it was for delta with two doses, and that is well over 90 percent protection against hospitalisation or serious illness.”

He urged everyone to make a plan, and said there was excellent capacity for vaccinations across the system.

“While we can’t administer boosters to everyone in that one million this Friday, I can assure you we have excellent capacity across our system and we certainly have a good supply of vaccine.”

Important for vulnerable people
It was even more important for vulnerable people and those working in higher-risk settings to get the booster, and considerable work was under way to make boosters as available as possible to those people, Dr Bloomfield said.

New Zealand data so far was similar to that overseas — we had not seen an increase in side effects, and overall adverse events after each additional vaccination had declined, he said.

He had asked for advice on when 12 to 17-year-olds would be able to get booster doses.

Ardern said the reason behind the delay until Friday was the government needed to make sure all the infrastructure was stood up.

New Zealand was still relatively early on in its omicron outbreak compared to other countries, and there was still time for people to get their booster in the coming week and have the benefit of it before the variant spread widely, she said.

Dr Bloomfield said New Zealand was an early mover in reducing the booster interval from six months to four, and was moving to reduce the interval again to three months before the omicron outbreak, which was something many other countries did not have the opportunity to do.

Ministry of Health Chief Science Adviser Ian Town said bringing it forward to three months, which had been done in the UK and in many Australian states, meant New Zealand could get the level of antibodies at a peak before it was facing widespread transmission.

No downside
There did not appear to be any downside to reducing the interval to three months, he said.

Dr Bloomfield said he wanted to emphasise that the evidence was clear that while two doses was great for delta, that was not the case with omicron, “so we will be pushing really hard to vaccinate”.

There were 142 community cases of covid-19 and 54 border cases reported in New Zealand today. There were 38,332 booster doses given yesterday.

This morning, Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson defended the government’s approach to pregnant journalist Charlotte Bellis’ emergency MIQ requests, and its acquisition of rapid antigen tests (RATs) ahead of an expected rapid increase in Omicron variant cases across New Zealand.

National has been calling for borders to reopen immediately, and frequent RAT testing in schools.

Cabinet yesterday discussed its plans for reopening the borders, and Prime Minister Ardern is expected to make announcements about that tomorrow. A staged timeline was outlined late last year, but was quickly delayed because of the risks posed by omicron.

The government this morning announced it would adding $70.7 million to its Events Support Scheme, and extending coverage to events scheduled for before 31 January next year that were planned before being cancelled by the red traffic light setting.

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